It has been an odd game of musical chairs this winter for those donning the tools of ignorance. That might be a reflection on changes in how catchers are evaluated, or it might simply be a lack of supply. Whatever it is, there will be a lot of new faces in new places this season, though of course they'll be hiding behind masks, as catchers tend to do.
As slow as the offseason felt at times, the catching market was popping. Pitch-framing guru Jeff Mathis went from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Texas Rangers. The Diamondbacks will replace him with a combination of newly acquired Carson Kelly and veteran Alex Avila. Yasmani Grandal moved from the Los Angeles Dodgers to the Milwaukee Brewers via free agency. He'll be replaced in L.A. in part by veteran Russell Martin.
Jonathan Lucroy moved from the Oakland Athletics to the Los Angeles Angels. Yan Gomes was acquired by the Washington Nationals from the Cleveland Indians. The Nats also signed former Atlanta Braves catcher Kurt Suzuki. The Tampa Bay Rays traded for Mike Zunino, the Seattle Mariners' starter last season, while the Mariners signed Omar Narvaez. The New York Mets signed Wilson Ramos off the free-agent market. Then last week, the Miami Marlins -- finally! -- traded J.T. Realmuto, sending him to the Philadelphia Phillies and bringing back a younger replacement in Jorge Alfaro. Whew.
Now that the dust is mostly settled, let's begin our survey of each position in baseball with a snapshot of the catchers.
Position-by-position tiers: First basemen | Second basemen
TIER I: FRANCHISE PERFORMERS
None. As is explained in the accompanying methodology box, the tiers are determined by a player's overall rank, not his rank at his base position. The problem for catchers isn't that they aren't valuable -- it's just that they don't play as much as the stalwarts at other positions. In terms of aggregate hWAR allocated across the majors, catchers rank ahead of shortstops and center fielders, the other defense-first positions. Yet the top-ranked catcher slots at No. 45 overall. Only five catchers project to log enough time to qualify for the batting title. Seem low? Last season, there were only six. It's the nature of the position. Squatting is hard.
TIER II: ALL-STARS
Buster Posey, Giants
Position rank: 1
hWAR: 3.87
Coming off of hip surgery, Posey has to revalidate his status as the game's best catcher, a label affixed so often to Realmuto during trade whispers this winter. Reports about Posey's recovery have been encouraging, so he has been forecast with a typical workload behind the plate. Posey is the career leader in WAR among active catchers, even though he's a few years younger than Yadier Molina and Martin. Other catchers might hit for more power, but Posey remains a potent on-base machine. Posey is the only catcher who ranks in the top 4 percent of the majors in the forecasts for both offensive and defensive WAR.
J.T. Realmuto, Phillies
Position rank: 2
hWAR: 3.52
There is a reason the Marlins dragged out the Realmuto trade talks for so long. He provides All-Star-level value at a position that lacks such performers and is playing through his prime on a reasonable contract. While Posey's track record is longer, Realmuto provided more value than any other catcher over the past two seasons for the woeful Marlins. According to Fangraphs, Realmuto's 4.8 fWAR last season was tied with Charles Johnson's 1997 campaign for the best-ever season by a Marlins catcher. That said, while Realmuto should put up premier offensive numbers in Citizens Bank Park, according to Baseball Prospectus, he rated well below Alfaro as a pitch-framer last season, so he has to prove that he can augment a Phillies pitching staff that didn't get a lot of defensive help in 2018.
TIER III: FIRST-DIVISION REGULARS
Yasmani Grandal, Brewers
Position rank: 3
hWAR: 3.20
You don't make decisions on players based on postseason slumps. Certainly the analytics-savvy Dodgers didn't move on from Grandal because of his hard-to-watch Octobers of the past two seasons. But you have to wonder how much of those high-profile failings played into the fact that one of baseball's premier catchers, who is entering his age-30 season, had to settle for a one-year deal in free agency. Suffice to say, Grandal might have a chip on his shoulder as he enters a second consecutive walk season, this time with the Brewers -- the team that L.A. edged in last season's National League Championship Series. Grandal fits the Brewers' numbers-charged M.O., both with his three-true-outcomes approach at the plate and his top-of-the-heap framing numbers.
Gary Sanchez, Yankees
Position rank: 4
hWAR: 3.16
Sanchez obviously has some holes in his game, holes that deepened in 2018. His .186 batting average was easily the lowest in Yankees history by players with at least 350 plate appearances. He struck out in more than 25 percent of his trips to the plate and his 18 passed balls were five more than anybody else in baseball. Yet the projections are optimistic, with his 33 homers, 90 RBIs and .876 OPS from 2017 driving forecasts based on what is still a short track record. Sanchez is only 26, so time is on his side, but you have to figure his leash is going to be short. He underwent a procedure on his non-throwing shoulder after last season. If discomfort in that area had anything to do with Sanchez's down season, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman's faith in him could prove justified.
Wilson Ramos, Mets
Position rank: 5
hWAR: 2.35
Ramos, 31, signed a two-year, $19 million free-agent deal during the Mets' whirlwind of a winter to take over behind the plate. He rates below average by most defensive metrics. While it'll be crucial that he develops a good working relationship with the Mets' talented pitching staff, it's likely that Ramos' bat will have to justify the team's investment. He was terrific offensively last season, hitting .306/.358/.487 for the Rays and Phillies. That's pretty much what he did for the Nationals in 2016, but those seasons were sandwiched around an injury-plagued 2017 season. Generally, Ramos has been productive at the dish when healthy and with a green light medically at the dawn of spring training, he has a chance to put up New York's best offensive season by a catcher since Mike Piazza.
TIER IV: SECOND-DIVISION REGULARS
Yadier Molina, Cardinals
Position rank: 6
hWAR: 2.30
Molina continues to carry a heavy load as he enters his age-36 season. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Molina's 400 appearances at catcher over the past three seasons is 38 more than anyone else in baseball. That number was down to 121 last season as he battled knee trouble, but Molina still managed to earn an All-Star berth, not to mention the Roberto Clemente Award. He also landed his ninth Gold Glove, though he wasn't a favorite of pitch-framing metrics. Prospect Andrew Knizner might start to push Molina for some time, but if the 15-year veteran is healthy, he'll get plenty of work. After all, he's got a Hall of Fame case to burnish.
Willson Contreras, Cubs
Position rank: 7
hWAR: 2.10
As with a few of the still-young-but-not-as-young-as-they-were Cubs position players, Contreras' development hasn't proceeded in a linear fashion. Last season, Contreras put up the worst of his three big-league seasons at the plate, notching career lows in average (.249), on-base percentage (.339) and slugging percentage (.390). Contreras caught more innings than any other catcher, and the workload might have sapped him as the season progressed. His .818 first-half OPS dropped to a stunning .585 after the All-Star break. Defensively, Contreras has always rated right around average in runs saved despite his strong arm and superior athleticism. The metrics abhorred his work as a framer last season, with Baseball Prospectus ranking him dead last with minus-17.8 framing runs, 4.6 worse than anyone else. This is a big season for Contreras. Of course, you can say that about a number of the Cubs' regulars.
Tyler Flowers, Braves
Position rank: 8
hWAR: 2.04
While the advent of framing metrics has undermined the perception of catchers like Contreras, Molina and Salvador Perez -- all of whom stand out in more traditional areas -- it has made a kind of star of Flowers, at least among the baseball hipster crowd. Flowers ranked third in framing last season, per Baseball Prospectus, after leading in that area in 2017. Flowers can't really hit but has decent pop and props up his on-base percentage by getting hit by a lot of pitches. He doesn't throw all that well, with a 23 percent caught-stealing rate in each of the past two seasons that rates below league average. But despite those blemishes, Flowers' ability to create strikes out of thin air makes him an acceptable regular on a contending team. It doesn't hurt that he's a well-liked leader in the Atlanta clubhouse.
Salvador Perez, Royals
Position rank: 9
hWAR: 2.03
Once again, the framing overloads looked askance at Perez's work behind the plate. He ranked 109th of 117 catchers in that metric last season. Gold Glove voters didn't care, as Perez won his fifth. He threw out nearly half of opposing base thieves last season (25 of 52) and once again rated as better than average defensively by runs saved. At the plate, Perez enjoyed his second consecutive season of 27 homers and 80 RBIs, both tops among backstops, though his offensive value was once again kneecapped by a complete lack of plate discipline. Still only 28, Perez is a six-time All-Star who was a core member of two pennant winners and one world champion. He has every intangible in the book working in his favor. It'll be interesting to see how he's viewed as his career progresses. In another era, Perez would likely be seen as a catcher on a Hall of Fame track, if he achieves longevity. But will his metrics-averse game stand out 15 or so years from now when he hits the ballot?
Mike Zunino, Rays
Position rank: 10
hWAR: 2.01
This year's cost-efficient Rays catcher will be Zunino, who took a step back during his final season with Seattle, at least at the plate. Always an all-or-nothing type, he took that to an extreme in 2018 by clubbing 20 homers in just 405 plate appearances while striking out 150 times. The bottom line was a .201 average and a .259 on-base percentage, numbers that, if he's going to have regular status, better be supported by superior defense. Luckily, Zunino checked that box, logging 12 defensive runs saved, throwing out 35 percent of opposing base stealers and finishing with 7.5 framing runs above average, per Baseball Prospectus. If Zunino can hit closer to the .251 mark he reached in 2017, he can challenge Perez and Sanchez for All-Star honors in the American League. Or he could hit .160.
OTHER TIER IV: 11. Austin Barnes, Dodgers (1.97 hWAR); 12. Welington Castillo, White Sox (1.58 hWAR); 13. Francisco Cervelli, Pirates (1.55 hWAR); 14. Danny Jansen, Blue Jays (1.50 hWAR); 15. Tucker Barnhart, Reds (1.43 hWAR)
Barnes will need to do better than the .619 OPS that he had last season if he's going to justify the increased workload he's likely to enjoy because of Grandal's departure. That's especially true now that we know that Realmuto won't be calling Dodger Stadium home. Barnes is a disciplined hitter with a career .364 on-base percentage over what amounts to a full season's worth of plate appearances. If he can do that and add at least a modicum of extra-base ability, the Dodgers will take it. Barnes rates as well above average in defensive metrics and works well with the L.A. staff, which is why Dave Roberts has felt comfortable riding him during the Dodgers' playoff runs in each of the past two postseasons. In any event, Barnes is merely a stopgap for the Dodgers until Keibert Ruiz, Will Smith or both are ready to take over.
The new face on the block for this group is Jansen, who rates as one of baseball's 10 best rookies, according to these forecasts. ESPN's Keith Law rated him just out of his top 100. Jansen's numbers suggest a hitter with decent patience and pop, but Law suggests the defense needs work. This will be a good season for the Blue Jays to allow him to learn his craft.
TOP FROM TIER V: 16. Austin Hedges, Padres; 17. Robinson Chirinos, Astros; 18. Kurt Suzuki, Nationals; 19. Martin Maldonado, free agent; 20. Jorge Alfaro, Marlins; 21. Grayson Greiner, Tigers; 22. Chris Iannetta, Rockies; 23. Brian McCann, Braves; 24. Jonathan Lucroy, Angels; 25. Roberto Perez, Indians; 26. Jason Castro, Twins; 27. Russell Martin, Dodgers; 28. Evan Gattis, free agent; 29. Christian Vazquez, Red Sox; 30. Max Stassi, Astros
If you're looking for a breakout player from this tier, keep an eye on Hedges. According to the breakout probabilities from PECOTA and the Davenport forecasts, Hedges' 19.5 percent chance of busting out is easily the highest of projected starters. Last season saw gains in patience, contact ability and extra-base power. More than anything, though, Hedges' defensive metrics are trending toward elite, and he has the motivation to fend off San Diego catching prospect Francisco Mejia.
See the rest of our positional tiers series: First basemen | Second basemen