As we embark upon the final year of the 2010s, the 15th decade of big league baseball history is nearly complete. Readers of Bill James' historical abstracts will recall his recounting of the high points and innovations from each decade, going all the way back to the 1870s. At the end of each chapter, he'd hand out a highly creative set of awards for each decade such as, just to pick one example, "Ugliest player."
Well, I'm not going to do an ugly player award, though I have a few candidates in mind. But I have to face these guys in their clubhouses, where a wooden bat is never far away. Having seen Brian De Palma's "The Untouchables" I think it best to tread lightly. So let's stick to the statistical realm and see what bragging rights might be at stake in the season to come, the last of this 10-year period.
There's a reason I do this. Think back to the decades from your younger days, whenever they may have been. Aren't there certain players and teams you associate with that time? Of course this is place-dependent, but let's say you're thinking of baseball in the 1970s. The Big Red Machine might leap to mind, or perhaps it's Reggie Jackson going deep in a World Series for the Yankees. The 1980s? Maybe you think of Whitey Herzog's Cardinals burning up the bases, or the Gooden-Strawberry Mets.
You get the idea. We're trying to use a little foresight to glimpse what we might remember in hindsight.
Best overall hitter
Maybe the best hitter has been Miguel Cabrera, whose 882 RBIs put him 12 ahead of Edwin Encarnacion and Albert Pujols atop the leaderboard. That's a race in itself -- most prolific RBI guy of the decade. Then again, maybe the best hitter has been Robinson Cano, whose 1,595 hits are easily the most of the decade.
But, no, it's likely not any of those guys because we don't rely on old measures like those any longer. More telling is Mike Trout's OPS+ (175) that has him comfortably ahead of Cabrera (160) for the best of the 2010s. However, if you want to consider volume in tandem with efficiency, you might note that Trout does not lead in runs created. For those, the leader is Joey Votto with 1,091, and barring something unforeseen, he should remain that way. Second-place Cabrera (1,007) and third-place Trout (1,004) are well behind him.
Votto is a good choice and a masterful hitter, but Trout's 63.3 offensive bWAR (baseball-reference WAR) is 20 more than second-place Cano's mark for tops in the decade. That seems to be a decisive number, but consider that baserunning prowess is folded into that metric and Trout ranks seventh in runs from baserunning this decade, according to baseball-reference.com. We can keep that in mind, but Trout's 20-win gap over Cano remains mostly intact.
Sure, there are some mixed messages to take from these categories, but Trout's standing in the more advanced areas is secure. This seems like settled business. No matter what happens during the 2019 season, Mike Trout will be remembered as the best offensive player of the decade.
Best baserunner
Since I mentioned baserunning runs, let's look at that category. The decade leader is Ben Revere (35.5), just ahead of Billy Hamilton (34.1) and Rajai Davis (34.1). Hamilton has been putting up about 5.9 BRR per season, while neither Revere nor Davis is likely to be a big league regular this season. So while Hamilton looks like a good bet to finish on top, I'm not sure I'll anoint him the decade's best baserunner just yet.
Part of it is that he didn't debut until 2013, which depresses his counting numbers when looking at the decade as a whole. Davis leads the decade with 322 steals, but he's just 14 ahead of Dee Gordon, who should remain an everyday player for Seattle. Hamilton (277) enters the season 45 steals back of Davis. If the Royals really rev up their running game this season, which could happen, and if Hamilton has a career year in terms of on-base percentage, he could close or even erase those gaps.
This category isn't settled, but despite his missing years at the beginning of the 2010s, Hamilton looks to be well positioned to be remembered as the decade's best baserunner. If so, he'll join some good company. The other Billy Hamilton led the 1890s with 732 stolen bases.
Best defensive player
Because of the uncertain nature of defensive metrics, you might think that we'll never reach a consensus on who has been the game's best fielder this decade. Perhaps the biggest area of innovation during the 2010s has been the advent of Statcast, which has the potential to eventually advance our knowledge of defensive impact toward the happy direction of certainty. But we aren't there yet.
Despite that caveat, the picture on the defensive side of things does in fact seem pretty clear. Allow me to explain.
Let's start with baseball-reference.com's defensive WAR metric, in which there is a decisive leader. That would be Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons with 25.3 defensive WAR. That swamps second-place Yadier Molina (15.2). If you look at defensive runs saved, again it's Simmons in a landslide. He has saved 50 more runs (184) than second-place Jason Heyward. Ultimate zone rating, or UZR? Similar story: Simmons' edge in UZR isn't as decisive, but it is significant -- 101.9 to 92.9 over Heyward.
Given Simmons' dominance in this cross-section of leading defensive metrics, it seems we have another best-of-the-2010s category decided before the season begins. Simmons has been the decade's best defender and joins teammate Trout on our honor roll. Why haven't the Angels been better?
Best slugger
At the league level, we set a single-season home run record in 2017, while the third- and fourth-highest totals have also come during this decade. However, unless we break the single-season record set two years ago by nearly a thousand homers, we're not going to set a new decade mark. The 2000s gave us 52,148 home runs (for a 2.78 HR percentage of all plays) and the 2010s have 45,155 bombs in the books (good for 2.72 percent).
So who will emerge as the home run king of the homer-happy 2010s? That race is tightly bunched. In fact, entering the 2019 season, there is a tie for the most home runs hit in the decade thus far, as Nelson Cruz and Giancarlo Stanton have both rung up 305 long balls. Not far behind is Edwin Encarnacion with 301. One of those three should end up as the decade leader.
If you want to take a more holistic view of slugging, there is actually a statistic named after that trait. The leader in slugging percentage is Trout (.573), followed by the retired David Ortiz (.562). Among the leaders in homers, Stanton is the tops in slugging (.548), so he's unlikely to catch Trout. However, Stanton does lead in isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) at .280, with Khris Davis ranking second at .271. In terms of ranking the best pure slugger, Stanton would emerge from the pack with a big season. Part of that might be that power hitting is his defining trait, whereas Trout is good at everything.
But in the future, when we look back at this decade, what we may really remember about the role of power in baseball is that everyone had it.
Top pure hitter
With strikeout totals surpassing hit totals for the first time last season, we'll remember this decade in one of two ways. Either it'll be the decade that the pure hitter went extinct, or it will be the decade where he temporarily went missing. Perhaps because my favorite player growing up was George Brett, I really hope we haven't seen the last of the great pure hitters.
Cabrera is the leading hitter by average this decade at .321, followed by Jose Altuve at .316. Cano, the hits leader, is at .303, ranking seventh. When you fold in contact ability, Altuve is probably the closest thing that we have this decade to, say, a 1980s version of Brett or Wade Boggs, or Rod Carew from the 1970s. But there just don't seem to be truly elite hitters for average in the game right now.
How low is a .321 average for a decade leader? Just for context, let's say that Cabrera holds steady at .321. Here's where that would rank in prior decades:
2000s: 6th (leader was Albert Pujols at .334)
1990s: 4th (Tony Gwynn, .344)
1980s: 5th (Wade Boggs, .352)
1970s: 2nd (Rod Carew, .343)
1960s: 2nd (Roberto Clemente, .328)
1950s: 4th (Ted Williams, .336)
1940s: tied 4th (Ted Williams, .356)
1930s: tied 14th (Bill Terry, .352)
1920s: tied 27th (Rogers Hornsby, .382)
1910s: tied 5th (Ty Cobb, .387)
1900s: 4th (Honus Wagner, .352)
Even if Cabrera has a healthy season, it seems unlikely at this phase of his career that he'll hit .321. Over the past three seasons, his composite average has been .288. Let's be really optimistic and say Cabrera bounces back to a .300 average over 500 at-bats. That would leave him at .316 for the decade, actually .3155. Meanwhile, let's say Altuve has a healthy season of 600 at-bats. He'd need to hit only about .310 to pass Cabrera, though if Cabrera miraculously maintained his .321 mark, then Altuve would need to hit .363 to pass him. Over the past three seasons, the in-his-prime Altuve has hit .334.
It seems likely we'll get a new decade leader by the end of the 2019 campaign. However, it's certain that whether it's Cabrera or Altuve, we're easily going to have the lowest average ever posted by a decade leader.
Top starting pitcher
Once upon a time, we might simply have looked to see who won the most games. We'll do that now, and while it's just a starting point, it tells a pretty accurate story. That may not be a surprise. While pitcher wins in general are less useful than ever in terms of evaluating a player, I have a theory that wins over a period of years, such as a decade, do and will dovetail pretty well with more advanced measures of the top starters.
That's because only a select few are going to get the innings to earn decisions and compile wins in the first place. That select few will be drawn from the cream of the era's pitching crop. This notion has clearly played out in the 2010s:
Most wins, 2010s
1. Max Scherzer, 150
2. Clayton Kershaw, 140
3. Justin Verlander, 139
4. Zack Greinke, 137
5. Jon Lester, 135
If you wanted to construct the decade's ultimate starting rotation and wins were the only data with which you had to work, and your friend was using WAR, this quintet would hold up just fine. Let's look at what your friend would end up with:
Most pitching WAR, 2010s
1. Clayton Kershaw, 55.9
2. Max Scherzer, 50.3
3. Justin Verlander, 48.6
4. Chris Sale, 43.1
5. Cole Hamels 42.9
Kershaw is the runaway leader in ERA (2.24, with Scherzer coming in second at 3.14) and ERA+ (168, ahead of Scherzer's 133). Scherzer leads in strikeouts (2,209), well ahead of Kershaw (1,990) and Verlander (1,960), so he's going to end up as the decade's strikeout king. Scherzer also, at present, has more career momentum than Kershaw.
If Kershaw were to be injured or suffer through a washout season, that might open the door for the hard-charging Scherzer. However, it's hard to overlook Kershaw's huge edge in both raw ERA and adjusted ERA. I'd say that he likely needs only to clear the low bar of his 2018 performance to win the title as the decade's top ace. Scherzer has an outside chance, but this is Kershaw's decade.
Top reliever
As much as I rant about saves, I guess we have to look at them for this exercise. Here are the decade leaders, along with their save percentages:
1. Craig Kimbrel, 333 (90.7 percent save percentage)
2. Kenley Jansen, 268 (89.9)
3. Fernando Rodney, 255 (84.4)
4. Aroldis Chapman, 236 (89.7)
5. Jonathan Papelbon, 217 (87.5)
Kimbrel is looking pretty good, but let's look elsewhere. According to the FanGraphs version of WAR, Kimbrel is the leader among relievers with 19.0, but Jansen (17.7) and Chapman (17.6) aren't far behind. In win probability added -- probably the best current metric for backward-looking evaluation of relievers -- Kimbrel is again the front-runner, at 24.3. Jansen (20.1) is the only other reliever over 20.
Jansen has posted as many as 5.6 WPA in a season, so it's possible that if Kimbrel is hurt or falls apart or no team ever signs him, we could have a change atop this race. But entering the season, Kimbrel looks like a good bet to be remembered as the top fireman of the decade.
Team of the 2010s
Most wins, 2010s
1. New York Yankees, 818 (zero championships)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers, 813 (zero championships)
3. St. Louis Cardinals, 808 (one championship)
4. Boston Red Sox, 788 (two championships)
5. Washington Nationals, 786 (zero championships)
11. San Francisco Giants, 744 (three championships)
15. Chicago Cubs, 733 (one championship)
23. Kansas City Royals, 699 (one championship)
25. Houston Astros, 682 (one championship)
While there is a tight race for most team wins in the 2010s, when you factor in championships, it's hard not to just put your hands in the air. The Giants have those three titles, but can the 11th-best regular-season team really be the team of the decade? That standing is likely to only get worse this season. If the Yankees or Dodgers cap a strong season with a championship, do they then take the title?
Honestly, it's hard to say. Let's declare this a four-team race between the Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox. Of the 36 combined seasons these teams have played, only four of them have been sub-.500 -- three by Boston and one by Los Angeles. Meanwhile, the Yankees are the leader in run differential (plus-884) by a good margin. The Yankees and Dodgers have the most playoff appearances (six) but, again, neither has won a championship.
It's a tough call and we'll have to see how this season plays out. If the Red Sox repeat as champions for a third title, they'd probably take the honor, despite the down seasons they've endured over the past nine years. The Dodgers could also be the anointed team with a title, given their run of six straight division titles and two straight pennants. If those numbers go to seven and three, are teamed with a title, and the Dodgers surpass the Yankees for most regular-season wins, that seems like a pretty strong case.
As for the Yankees, there is a lot at stake legacywise. As mentioned, they lead the majors in wins this decade, and with a strong 2019 season, the Bombers could seal the wins crown for the decade. That's no small thing. And if they power through the season and October alike and win that 28th World Series crown, then, sure, maybe we'll remember them as the team of the decade.
But if the Yankees fall short, consider this: It would be just the second decade in which the Yankees failed to win a title since before they acquired Babe Ruth in 1920.
Best overall player
Who will be the player of the 2010s? I'm guessing you have a favorite in mind before I even get into the numbers. I have that same player in mind: Mike Trout. It really is as simple as that. When we're talking WAR, whether it's the Baseball Reference or FanGraphs flavor, you generally don't want to over-state declarative statements based on those leaderboards. The metrics are best to enter a debate, not to decide it. The exception is when a player's edge in the catch-all metrics is too great to ignore. In Trout's case, it's a rout.
At baseball-reference.com, Trout's 64.3 WAR for the decade is 9.5 more than second-place Cano (53.8 WAR) among position players. The pitching leader is Kershaw with 55.9. There is just no one in the same orbit. At FanGraphs, it's even more lopsided. Trout leads there with 64.7 WAR, while Votto logs in a distant second among position players at 47.8. The leading FanGraphs pitcher is, again, Kershaw with 55.6. Pick your decade leaderboard and Trout dominates it. According to thebaseballgauge.com, Trout leads all players with 268.5 win shares, 13.3 more than Cano.
The most amazing part of this is that Trout's didn't log his first full season until 2012. Through the 2011 season, his bWAR was 0.5. Over the last seven seasons, he's averaged 9.1 bWAR. Prorate that for the full nine seasons of the 2010s and Trout would be at 81.9 WAR. This is Secretariat-level domination.
By the end of the 2019 season, we might not have a clear answer about who the team of the 2010s is, but we most certainly will know who the player of the decade has been. This has been the decade of Mike Trout.