We already ran down the top 100 prospects in baseball, so now it's time go deeper by division. Today it's the AL East, starting with the Baltimore Orioles.
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Division overviews: NL East | NL Central | NL West | AL Central | AL West
Editor's note: Age is the player's age as of July 1, 2019. Players with experience in foreign major leagues such as Japan's NPB or Korea's KBO are ineligible for these rankings.
Baltimore Orioles
This farm system needs an overhaul of the sort it's about to get, with virtually every baseball department head replaced in the past two months or simply let go without a replacement named yet. Years of ignoring the international market have held this system down, but chronic problems with player development -- pitchers getting hurt, hitters getting swing-change recommendations from coaches, the left hand and right hand not being on speaking terms -- and mediocre returns on trades have exacerbated the issue. It's a long road up to recovery.
1. D.L. Hall, LHP (ranked No. 63)
2. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP
3. Ryan Mountcastle, IF
4. Yusniel Diaz, OF
5. Austin Hays, OF
6. Dean Kremer, RHP
7. Keegan Akin, LHP
8. Ryan McKenna, OF
9. Cadyn Grenier, SS
10. Adam Hall, SS
Grayson Rodriguez was the team's first pick in 2018, 11th overall, and is a tall, strongly built right-hander from rural Texas who's been up to 97 mph with the makings of two potentially plus breaking balls. His changeup is a work in progress, which is typical for high school pitchers who haven't faced great competition, and there's a little effort in his delivery that could pose some reliever risk, but there's No. 2 starter upside too. Ryan Mountcastle can hit and has real power, maybe 30-homer power, but still has no position. Left field is the most likely outcome, but the previous regime left him at third base to see if his throwing would improve to the point that he could stay there.
Yusniel Diaz came over in the Manny Machado trade and is close to major-league ready, seen around the league as a probable average regular who doesn't project to have the the power to be an above-average right fielder or the range to stay in center. Austin Hays' 2018 season was an outright disaster, as he played through some injuries and faced coaches who tried to change his swing after a hugely successful 2017. The hope has to be that an offseason away and some new faces in February will help him hit the reset button, as he looked like an average regular in left who might hit his way to a little more.
Dean Kremer came over with Diaz in the Machado trade and led the minors in strikeouts last year. He's up to 96-97, sitting more at 90-94, with an above-average curveball and below-average changeup, with above-average command of the arsenal. He comes back across his body too much for me to bank on him remaining a starter, but if he does, he could end up in the middle of someone's rotation. Between the delivery and lack of an average changeup, he would seem likely to be vulnerable to left-handed batters, but that hasn't been true to date. Keegan Akin is a heavier lefty with some feel to pitch and future average command with a three-pitch mix, usually 90-94 as a starter. He lacks a real out pitch but probably comes in with all three at average (50) or above (55). He did bump 97 late in the year, and I think he'd sit 93-97 in shorter outings.
Ryan McKenna is a plus runner and average defender in center who raked in high-A, then got to Double-A and for some reason was told to change his approach. He looked more like himself in the Fall League, though. His defense in center should be better given his speed, but his routes are just fair, although there is time to improve that, and I still think there is some chance he adds another half-grade (or more) of power. Cadyn Grenier was the team's second pick last year (37th overall), a fringe first-rounder out of high school who improved enough defensively at Oregon State to bump first-rounder Nick Madrigal to second base. He has a good swing and doubles power, but a history of high strikeout rates. He's a plus defender at short, but not a 70, so he'll have to make more contact going forward to profile as a regular. Adam Hall is my sleeper for this year (see below) as an athletic, fast shortstop who has needed more time to develop than most high school kids, perhaps since he's from Canada and hadn't played as much, but also was held back by bad player development decisions. In the final 30 days of the summer, when the shackles were off, he hit .395/.459/.523 and went 16-for-18 stealing bases. He's a legitimate shortstop who could end up as a classic leadoff hitter with OBP and speed.
Teams that focus on Trackman data love lefty Zac Lowther (11), who will sit 87-92 but misses bats with huge extension and a very high spin rate, with two average-ish secondary pitches. He has no projection but has great feel to pitch, working up with the heater and down with the curve and changeup, and lines up as a fifth starter who might outplay his stuff. Blaine Knight (12), the team's third-round pick in 2018, is a four-pitch right-hander with plus control, can hit 95 but lacks a true plus pitch, with fourth/fifth starter upside but less certainly than Lowther.
Right-hander Luis Ortiz (13) came over in the trade for Jonathan Schoop, but his stock has fallen dramatically the past few years as he can't be bothered to keep himself in shape. The 2018 season marked his first time throwing 100 innings in any calendar year, and while he'll still show mid-90s and a plus changeup, he doesn't have an average breaking ball and doesn't miss enough bats. I'd try him in relief, even temporarily, to see if his stuff ticks up and if he can slim down. Richie Martin (14) might be Baltimore's Opening Day shortstop. The Orioles took him with the first pick in the Rule 5 draft from Oakland off his .300/.368/.439 season in Double-A, but his contact quality isn't great. I know scouts who like his defense at short, although I've seen him be less consistent there than I'd like a shortstop to be. Brenan Hanifee (15) is still projectable, but the right-hander didn't take a step forward last year as I'd hoped. He hits 90-94 with good life and can sink the ball, showing three offspeed pitches, but nothing above, average and he needs a lot of work on the changeup.
DJ Stewart (16) could get some playing time this year as Baltimore tries anyone and everyone, and he might be a below-average regular at DH or first base for a little while, with some power and a decent eye at the plate. But I think he has a hard time getting to stuff in on or under his hands, and he's below average on defense in the outfield. Branden Kline (17) made the 40-man roster this winter after missing more than two years around Tommy John surgery. He's 27, so the time is now, and he bumped 99 last year with an above-average slider and an improved changeup. He's relief-only at this point.
Jean Carmona (18), acquired in the Schoop deal with Ortiz, is a true shortstop with a plus arm, a switch-hitter with strength for eventual power but a crude approach. Lefty Alex Wells (19) has a 45 fastball but throws a ton of strikes; his curveball is a potential weapon but he needs a better changeup to have a chance as a back-end starter. Michael Baumann (20) will run his fastball up to 98, but has no plus second pitch and his fastball can be true, so he hasn't missed bats and projects as a reliever. One bonus name: I'd love to see what eighth-rounder Ryan Conroy can do now that the Orioles have pushed him to relief, as his power slider and splitter might both miss bats.
2019 impact: Martin looks like he'll be the team's starting shortstop, so that's fun. Stewart's shot at playing time requires the Orioles to just not care about his defense in left or to bench Chris Davis, but the alternatives are so bad that they should just find 400 at-bats for him. Kline belongs in the major league bullpen; he might be their best arm by year's end.
Sleeper: That's Adam Hall, no relation to D.L., but Adam ended the year so well and seemed to have put together a good approach at the plate, one he can use going forward for OBP and hard contact, while also getting on base enough to show off his baserunning acumen.
The fallen: Hunter Harvey made nine starts last year, 32 innings, and that was an improvement, but he got knocked around and hurt his shoulder again. He'll be 24 this year, so you can't just give up on the guy, but his odds of seeing the majors are pretty low. Dillon Tate came over in the Zach Britton trade, but the former fourth overall pick has imploded, with a fastball that has velocity but is pin-straight now and doesn't miss bats, and a slider that's at least a grade worse than it was when he was drafted
Boston Red Sox
Although it may seem oxymoronic to say this about a team I have ranked in the bottom third, I like what's going on in the Red Sox's system. There are quite a few prospects here who could be top-100 fodder in a year if they just get healthy, or in one or two cases just prove something at a higher level. They had a lot of injuries to major prospects last year and some bad luck along the way, although I doubt anyone is shedding any tears for the world champs.
1. Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP (just missed)
2. Triston Casas, 1B
3. Tanner Houck, RHP
4. Jay Groome, LHP
5. Michael Chavis, 3B
6. Bobby Dalbec, 3B
7. Alex Scherff, RHP
8. Antoni Flores, SS
9. Danny Diaz, 3B
10. Nick Decker, OF
Triston Casas was Boston's first-round pick, a prep first baseman who has a really advanced approach and uses the whole field extremely well. He has the physical potential for power but a swing that is more geared to hard line-drive contact than the big-fly variety. At the time they took him, I said that if he becomes a 30-homer guy, it'll be the Paul Goldschmidt kind, where he hits line drives so hard they still leave the park. I saw only fringy defense at first from him as an amateur.
Tanner Houck started the season throwing mostly four-seamers, way too many, with more velocity but mixed results and a higher arm slot that cost him some deception. In mid-May he went back to his old self, sitting 94-95 with 70 sink while still using the four-seamer to elevate. His slider can be unhittable at times as well, particularly against right-handed hitters. His delivery has always given rise to concerns about him holding up as a starter, and he still needs to improve his changeup, as lefties see the ball out of his hand and his slider can run right into their bat path. That said, he held up for all of last year, and in the second half of his season (12 starts of 23) he threw up a 2.86 ERA, 73 strikeouts and 23 walks in 69 1/3 innings.
Jay Groome might miss all of 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last May. When healthy, he had a 70 curveball and above-average fastball with a good frame and loose delivery, but needed work on fastball command and control and refining his changeup. He really hasn't been healthy for more than a few starts at a time since signing. Michael Chavis missed half of 2018 due to a suspension for a positive PED test, then played through injuries when he returned. I think he's trade bait at this point and could help everyone with a healthy first half where he shows he can use the whole field. I'm not sure he's anyone's regular at third though.
Bobby Dalbec, on the other hand, might become one -- if he can cut the strikeouts. He has 70 raw power, an 80 arm, a 55 glove and he makes a lot of hard contact, but he struck out a third of the time in 2018. He is so vulnerable to sliders low and away or velocity up that it's hard to see him getting that under control. The potential is there, at least. Alex Scherff started rolling around midyear, working mostly fastball-changeup with a fringy breaking ball, when he hurt his oblique, but he came back well in instructs and has since added a cutter. He may not need much more given his willingness to pitch inside with his fastball, but as with Groome, he has to show he can stay healthy for a full year.
Antoni Flores signed for $1.4 million in 2017 and was set to play some in the Gulf Coast League this summer, but he hurt his hamstring after one game and didn't return till instructs. He has a good feel to hit for a 17-year-old with sneaky power, and plays shortstop well enough to stay there despite fringy speed and an average arm. He seems a better bet than Danny Diaz, who signed the same day as Flores for $1.6 million and has bigger tools, especially more power, with a bigger frame and stronger arm, but could outgrow third base in time, although he's an above-average defender there right now.
Nick Decker, the team's second-round pick out of a New Jersey high school, also missed most of the summer because of an injury, but came back for instructs and showed a better approach than anyone expected given the bad competition he'd faced in the spring (and how often he was pitched around). He's a hitter with power, rather than a power-over-hit type, with a plus arm that will let him stay in right field.
Mike Shawaryn (11) has a reliever's delivery with a low slot and high elbow in back of his arm action, but he's succeeded and stayed healthy up to Triple-A, working with an above-average fastball and changeup as well as a plus slider, throwing enough strikes albeit with about 45 command. He could be a depth starter for Boston this year, or a long reliever, or maybe a trade piece to a team that needs a starter who doesn't make any money. Right-hander Bryan Mata (12) saw his velocity jump to the mid-90s this year, and he already had an average curveball and changeup, with plenty of deception from a tough-to-repeat arm action -- and then he walked 58 guys in 72 innings this year. I'm not sure he can pitch with that delivery and this kind of arm speed and get to starter-level command.
Third-rounder Durbin Feltman (13) has a plus slider and fastball up to 99, with a delivery that says "get him to the majors before he breaks." He does throw strikes and missed a ton of bats for TCU, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Boston this summer. Travis Lakins (14) moved to the bullpen with promising results last year after several seasons of injuries as a starter, allowing him to focus more on working with his fastball and cutter. Lakins didn't pitch on consecutive days, so this is a transition still in progress, but his stuff is big league ready, and he throws enough strikes to help a major-league team in the right role. Shortstop C.J. Chatham (15) had a nice bounce-back season after missing nearly all of 2017 with hamstring injuries, hitting .315/.355/.384 for high-A Salem while playing above-average defense, but he has below-average power. He isn't a high-walk guy, so he projects more as a utility infielder.
Third baseman Brandon Howlett (16), the team's 21st-round pick in 2018, was very impressive in his pro debut this summer, with a .402 OBP between the GCL and a week in short-season Lowell. He's less toolsy than other prospects in the system but more advanced at the plate and is likely to stay at third. Right-hander Denyi Reyes (17) has exceptional control and well above-average command at age 22, working with a bucket of average pitches but locating everything, with just 19 walks allowed in 155 innings. He'll have to prove this works at higher levels, but he has some fourth-starter potential.
Eighth-rounder Elih Marrero (18), son of former big leaguer Eli Marrero, is a strong catch-and-throw guy whose bat is light, although he's a switch-hitter with enough contact skill to play himself into a backup role. Right-hander Zach Schellenger (19), Boston's sixth-round pick in 2017, has been hampered by injuries since he signed, but his slider is a wipeout pitch and his delivery makes his fastball tough for right-handers to see as well, getting him some Carson Smith comparisons. He faced 42 right-handed batters last year and struck out 17 of them. Nick Northcut (20), an over-slot signing in the 11th round last year, turned 19 just after the draft and has big power but also a big swing with some holes in it, and he's a work in progress at third base.
Right-hander Jake Thompson (21) has a couple of above-average pitches but doesn't miss bats at all, and may have to move to the bullpen to see if anything ticks up for him. Kole Cottam (22), their fourth-round pick last year, could be a backup catcher thanks to his power and some idea of the strike zone, although he's a fringy defender.
2019 impact: Feltman and/or Lakins could pitch in the major-league bullpen this year, but that's probably it unless a regular gets hurt.
Sleeper: That's still Scherff, who could be a top-60 prospect in a year if he just stays healthy for a full season and if his new cutter is indeed the weapon it appears to be.
The fallen: I hate to bury a guy just 18 months out of the draft, but Cole Brannen, the team's second-round pick in 2017, was atrocious in his full-season debut, earning a demotion to short-season and just failing to make quality contact at any level.
New York Yankees
Years of promotions and trades, combined with some big misses on the international front and in the draft, have taken this system from the top 10 to the bottom -- and yet there's still a lot to talk about, including a lot of pitchers and outfielders with the potential to become stars. Assuming they don't trade from their teenage prospect depth -- the kinds of players they've tended to acquire in deals rather than giving them up -- they at least have the basis of a system that could improve rapidly as those players enter full-season ball.
1. Deivi Garcia, RHP (ranked No. 61)
2. Everson Pereira, OF (just missed)
3. Estevan Florial, OF (just missed)
4. Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP
5. Anthony Seigler, C
6. Freicer Perez, RHP
7. Clarke Schmidt, RHP
8. Albert Abreu, RHP
9. Antonio Cabello, OF
10. Thairo Estrada, SS
Jonathan Loaisiga is a three-pitch starter who gets up to 95-96 with a hard slider and a changeup that has split-like action, but he's also a 6-foot right-hander, comes across his body some and has no track record of staying healthy. He's thrown 126 innings in four years, missing time with Tommy John surgery in that period, and got hurt almost the minute he was called up last year, missing more time with a shoulder injury.
Anthony Seigler, the team's first-round pick last year, was famous as a switch-pitcher in high school, but his pro future is behind the plate, where he's a future plus receiver with a strong arm (well, two strong arms, but you get my point) and the right aptitude for learning the art of working with pitchers. Unfortunately he suffered a concussion just 24 games into his first summer in pro ball and was shut down for the year, although he's supposed to be good to go for spring training. Concussions are a bit more concerning for catchers given the additional risk of that position.
Freicer Perez was on my top 100 last year but wasn't healthy in 2018 and eventually went down with shoulder surgery. Check back in a few months when we see if his stuff, which included a fastball that had touched 100 and a much-improved slider, comes back. Clarke Schmidt made all of two starts this year in his return from spring 2017 Tommy John surgery before being shut down with an oblique injury. He's been 94-96 with an above-average changeup and two breaking balls when he's pitched, and he's always been a big strike thrower, but his pre-TJ delivery put a lot of stress on his arm.
Albert Abreu was on the top 100 a year ago as well, showing three above-average pitches and finally having some success as a starter in 2017, but was hurt yet again in 2018 and didn't pitch as well. He can run it up to the upper 90s, and both the change and hammer breaking ball can show plus at times, but the lack of consistency and his inability to stay on the mound raise doubts about his ability to start. Antonio Cabello is the most exciting of their less-famous position-player prospects, a plus-plus runner with big-time raw power. As it turns out, he also has some idea of what he's doing at the plate, spending just a week in the Dominican Summer League before coming to the Gulf Coast League, where he posted strong walk and contact rates before injuring his shoulder diving for a ball. The former catcher, now converted to the outfield to take advantage of his speed, has a big back-side collapse, which few hitters can survive with, especially when it comes to a two-strike approach. I think for him to make the leap to be an elite prospect, he'll have to show he can shorten his swing in different counts rather than trying to murder every pitch he can hit.
I give Thairo Estrada a pass for his poor 2018 season since he played it with a bullet in his hip -- he was shot in an attempted robbery last offseason, missed a good chunk of the" year and was visibly affected by the injury even when he returned. Assuming he fully recovers, he's at least a high-quality utility infielder, maybe someone who can start for certain clubs. Roansy Contreras (11), like Deivi Garcia, is an undersized right-hander with good stuff and an advanced feel to pitch, sitting in the low to mid 90s with a three-pitch mix. His command and control aren't at Garcia's level yet, as he's not as consistent with his delivery, but he could certainly get there in time and has a better, thicker build than Garcia.
Right-hander Garrett Whitlock (12) was the Yankees' 18th-round pick in 2017 out of the University of Alabama-Birmingham, and in his first full pro season managed to reach Double-A as a starter, striking out a man an inning on the season with a ground ball rate well over 50 percent. His secondary stuff isn't good enough yet to call him a starter, although he's already made so much progress in such a short time that I wouldn't rule it out. Right-hander Miguel Yajure (13) came back from Tommy John surgery that kept him out all of 2017 and was throwing harder last year, sitting in the mid-90s and throwing it for strikes. He has a curveball and changeup, both potentially above-average, but now needs to go pitch a full season and see if he can miss more bats, as his stuff is good enough for a higher strikeout rate.
Right-hander Luis Medina (14) is up to 99 mph, has some secondary weapons, is athletic, has a good delivery but couldn't hit the broad side of a barn if you gave him five tries. I saw him with Pulaski in August and it was hard to process someone who looked pretty good on the mound having so little idea of where the ball was going. Even with the atrocious season -- 46 walks in 36 innings across 12 starts because he couldn't stay in games very long -- he's still a prospect because there's so much raw material here. Maybe he's just a reliever in the end, but he could be an elite one with his stuff and a delivery that shouldn't prevent him from throwing strikes. Domingo Acevedo (15) can touch 100 mph and throws more strikes than you'd think given his atrocious delivery, but he does it with control rather than command, and the fastball doesn't have much life. His slider could play up in a short relief role, which is where his delivery points anyway.
Ryder Green (16) was the Yankees' third-round pick, an outfielder with a long swing but who produces high exit velocities when he connects. He played mostly center field in the GCL but probably ends up in a corner, and either way he's going to have to work to make more contact. Juan Then (17), (pronounced like "ten") is still very young, turning 19 in February, and slight of build, with projection left. But his fastball has huge riding life and misses bats as it is; he shows good command of it for someone that young. He came over in a trade from Seattle for reliever Nick Rumbelow after the 2017 season, before Then had pitched in any games in the U.S.
Right-hander Luis Gil (18) sits 96-97, touching 100, with huge spin rates on everything he throws, but he's really raw and has a hard time finding the plate. He came back in the trade that sent Jake Cave to the Twins. The Yankees added outfielder Josh Stowers (19), a second-round pick of Seattle's last June, in the deal that sent Sonny Gray to Cincinnati. Stowers will play at age 22 this year but has the skill level of someone younger, with above-average tools almost across the board but lacking instincts and plate discipline. They also gave Raimfer Salinas (20) $1.85 million the winter before, using money they'd saved to try to sign Shohei Ohtani. He's a right-handed hitting center fielder who's projected to hit for average and contact, maybe growing into above-average power, with average speed and a plus arm. He played a handful of games last summer, but his real debut should come this year in the GCL or Appalachian League.
They have a passel of pitchers who project as major league relievers, potentially quite good ones in Trevor Stephan, Nick Nelson, Mike King, and Chance Adams. King had the best year of the group, pitching at three levels as a starter, working with average velocity and gaining deception from a cross-body delivery that hides the ball well but will make it hard for him to remain a starter in the long term. Adams has also started, but he's an undersized right-hander with an ordinary fastball; his four-pitch mix isn't major league caliber and he might be better off as a fastball/curveball reliever.
Other names of note: Matt Sauer, the Yanks' second-round pick in 2017, saw his stuff back up a little in pro ball, as he was 90-94 last summer with an above-average curveball, below-average changeup and a new cutter/slider. His delivery is violent, and I can't project him to stay healthy and have average command unless they can find a way to calm it down. ... 2018 second-round pick Josh Breaux had a very rough pro debut, with scouts killing his defense behind the plate and his approach as a hitter not faring much better. ... The Yankees gave center fielder Kevin Alcantara $1 million this past July 2, and it's all projection as he's tall and very slight, an above-average runner who should stay in center and has a good swing for power, but right now none of the strength. ... Yoendrys Gomez is a tall, wiry right-hander from Venezuela who sits in the mid-90s and shows feel for the change and breaking ball, pitching just a little in the GCL the past two summers but with a lot of projection that could put him on a mid-rotation starter track. ... Shortstop Oswald Peraza is an above-average defender at shortstop who's well behind at the plate both in recognizing spin and in his overall strength, although I did witness his first (and to date only) professional home run in August, an absolute bomb to dead center in Pulaski. ... Anthony Garcia hit 10 homers in 44 games in the GCL and struck out 73 times, an alarming 42 percent rate. He's huge, 6-foot-6 and well over 200 pounds, with 80 raw power. The switch-hitting right fielder signed for $500,000 in 2017.
2019 impact: There probably won't be any rookies in significant roles for the Yankees this year. Any of Loaisiga, Adams, Abreu, Stephan, Nelson, King or maybe Whitlock could end up with some spot starts or throwing 30 innings out of the bullpen.
Sleeper: Cabello has so much upside that I even had suggestions to put him in my top 100, although I think that would have been premature. But he could belong in a year.
The fallen: The Yankees blew out their international budget in 2014, under the system where spending beyond your allottment merely required you to pay a tax that usually doubled your total layout, but the class as a whole has been a dud. They spent more than $14 million on the group, giving seven-figure bonuses to Nelson Gomez, Juan De Leon, Dermis Garcia ($3.2 million), Jonathan Amundaray, Wilkerman Garcia, Miguel Flames and Hoy Jun Park, none of whom has turned into any sort of prospect. Amundaray is already out of baseball, while Gomez, De Leon and Flames are still in short-season. It's a lot of money for naught. Only Park looks like he might ever even see a day in the majors. The good news is that the same class included Florial, who signed for $200,000, and Perez, who signed for just $10,000.
Tampa Bay Rays
This system is deep, very deep, and not just deep in big leaguers, but deep in guys who could turn into real impact players. The Rays placed nine guys on my top 100, a first for the Rays and something few teams have ever done, and for what I think is the first time in franchise history they have some real depth up the middle. For a team that's been looking for long-term solutions at shortstop and behind the plate, this is welcome news.
1. Wander Franco, SS (ranked No. 3)
2. Brendan McKay, LHP/1B (ranked No. 14)
3. Brent Honeywell, RHP (ranked No. 19)
4. Matt Liberatore, LHP (ranked No. 36)
5. Vidal Brujan, 2B, (ranked No. 59)
6. Jesus Sanchez, OF (ranked No. 71)
7. Ronaldo Hernandez, C (ranked No. 84)
8. Shane Baz, RHP (ranked No. 94)
9. Lucius Fox, SS (ranked No. 100)
10. Brandon Lowe, 2B
Brandon Lowe looked like a disastrous third-round pick after his first two years in pro ball but reworked his swing on his own last winter, so now he takes advantage of his plus hand speed and drives balls farther and at a better angle for extra-base hits. He's also worked himself into a competent defender at second base who also can play either outfield corner, and might play his way into regular status.
Garrett Whitley (11) looked like a breakout candidate for 2018 but tore the labrum in his throwing shoulder while diving for a ball in the last week of spring training and missed the whole season. His approach and game power were both improving through 2017 and into spring training last year, but now we'll have to see if his swing is intact and if he suffers any rust from the long layoff. Nathaniel Lowe (12) -- no relation to Brandon -- was a 13th-round pick as a young junior at Mississippi State in 2016, had an unremarkable first full year in A-ball in 2017, then went off at two levels last year, hitting .330/.416/.568 on the season, including a final month in Triple-A when he finally cooled down a bit. Rather than trying to hit more balls in the air for power, this Lowe went the other way, trying to put more balls in play and use the whole field more, and the results were superb across the board. He's a big kid limited to first base, and may be a low-average guy who has value through OBP and power, still a potential regular for somebody.
Shortstop Tristan Gray (13) came over in the Corey Dickerson trade last winter, jumped from short-season to high-A last year at age 22, and had a solid season after a terrible month to start the year, leading the Florida State League with 38 doubles among his 53 extra-base hits. He could stand to walk more, and he's not a shortstop in the long run, perhaps fitting as a Ben Zobrist-style second baseman/corner outfielder who can fill in at short but is only an emergency option there.
Shane McClanahan (14) was a potential top-10 pick early last spring, hitting 99 regularly from the left side and going five outings without allowing an earned run, but he collapsed in the second half of his season for South Florida and slid right out of the first round. I think he's a reliever, with a low arm slot, questionable breaking ball and below-average command, but his arm strength is exceptional and not just in short bursts. Lefty Anthony Banda (15) made three appearances for the Rays, the last one his first start for Tampa, and then blew out his elbow, an injury that will keep him out for most if not all of 2019. He'll show an above-average fastball/changeup combination, and the Rays were working with him on transitioning from a curveball to a slider, but it's all on hold for now.
Outfielder Joe McCarthy (16) can hit some, gets on base at a high clip and has above-average power, but he's just plain injury-prone, missing time with a back injury and leaving the Arizona Fall League after he punched a wall and broke a finger. He turns 25 in February and could still be a soft regular if he can stay on the field. Outfielder Nick Schnell (17) was the Rays' second pick in the supplemental round, a pop-up kid from an Indianapolis high school with athleticism and a power/speed tool set. But his approach is crude, he can bar out his lead arm and he also keeps getting hurt.
The Rays went over slot for projection right-hander Michael Mercado (18) in the 2017 draft, and he's still a projection right-hander, throwing strikes with a good delivery but marginal stuff as everyone waits to see if he'll fill out and throw harder. Riley O'Brien (19) has seen his velocity improve to where he's now sitting mid-90s and bumping 98, even after a midyear move from the bullpen to the rotation, with fringe-average secondaries but still room to grow.
Right-hander Sandy Gaston (20) throws plenty hard, up to 97 with some feel for a slider and changeup, although neither is plus right now. His delivery needs a lot of work, as does his command, and as it stands he's probably a reliever. Second baseman Nick Solak (21) came over from the Yankees in last winter's Steven Souza/Anthony Banda three-way deal, posting a .384 OBP last year in Double-A Montgomery, with good exit velocities and above-average power. But he's a below-average defender at second and may end up as a left fielder or yet another 2B/OF utility guy. Middle infielder Tyler Frank (22) doesn't have Solak's pure strength, but he's a better defender at second and also shows good patience at the plate. He spent the summer in the short-season NY Penn League but is ready for high-A and might grow into a regular.
Michael Plassmeyer (23), drafted by Seattle in the fourth round and traded to the Rays in the Mallex Smith/Mike Zunino deal, is an extremely polished, strike-throwing lefty with average-ish stuff and extreme control. His ceiling is probably as a fifth starter, or more likely the sort of long reliever role Ryan Yarbrough filled this past year for Tampa, and he should get to the majors quickly. Tobias Myers (24), acquired from Baltimore for former No. 1 overall pick Tim Beckham, had a solid year as a 19-year-old in low-A Bowling Green's rotation, although he needs something more effective against left-handed batters and has to work on keeping his fastball --which has good velocity but not much plane because he's barely 6 feet -- out of the middle of the zone. Resly Linares (25) is a skinny lefty with average velocity and a power curveball, with projection to the body but also a lean frame that may not ever fill out to the point where his fastball is plus. He throws plenty of strikes and the delivery works for a potential starter, so his body will tell the tale.
Tanner Dodson (26) went out last summer after the draft as a two-way player, but he's a better prospect on the mound, where he's up to 98 with a plus slider, than as a hitter, where he can play center field quite well but lacks OBP skills or power. Ian Gibaut (27) is a pure reliever who has been up to 97 with a plus slider and fringe-average changeup, punching out a third of the batters he faced last year in Triple-A Durham. He absolutely can help the big-league bullpen this year. Lefty Colin Poche (28), acquired as a player to be named later in May from the Souza trade, is a deceptive lefty who works in the low 90s but misses a ton of bats with it because hitters don't see the ball. He had a hilarious line as a reliever in Double- and Triple-A last year, with a 0.82 ERA in 66 innings, 110 strikeouts and 19 walks, with most of the walks coming after his promotion.
Ryan Boldt (29) played well in a half-season in Double-A but was hurt once again, missing half the year with a fractured foot, and now is going to have to fight for playing time with the wave of outfielders behind him. A full, healthy year could really run him up this list. Catcher Nick Ciuffo (30) reached the majors last year after years of injuries and inconsistent performance that was more bad than good, and could have a solid run as a backup, as he's a good receiver with some contact skills.
A few other names: Righty Tommy Romero came over from the Mariners in the Denard Span/Alex Colome trade with Andrew Moore; he's a command and "pitchability" guy with average stuff and no real projection left, interesting as a possible back-end starter or long reliever. ... Right-hander Drew Strotman made nine starts last year before blowing out his elbow; he'll show a plus fastball and potentially above-average to plus slider, profiling as a reliever for now but with a chance to start depending on his health and the development of a third pitch. ... Austin Franklin also blew out last summer; he has plus velocity and an above-average curveball, with some chance to start depending on his command. ... Jose Mujica, signed in 2012 for $1 million, reached Triple-A last year, then he blew out his arm. He was No. 10 on my Rays list as far back as 2014, with a plus fastball/changeup combo, but his stuff has backed up some and now he's out until 2020. ... Jermaine Palacios can really play shortstop but was awful at the plate between high-A and Double-A, with a .269 OBP and a BABIP of .266. ... The Rays' 32nd-round pick from last year, Kaleo Johnson -- who is a person, not a new fad diet -- came from the Montana State Billings, drafted by the same scout who took Riley O'Brien, and has both big bat speed and raw power for lots of hard contact.
2019 impact: Gibaut and Poche belong in the team's bullpen right now. Both Brandon and Nathaniel Lowe should spend the bulk of the year in the majors. I'd rather play Brandon at second base than Joey Wendle, since Wendle is about to turn 29, and the difference in their production this year will be negligible. Honeywell could help the team whenever he returns from Tommy John surgery.
Sleeper: When I saw Whitley last spring, I thought he was primed for a huge year -- his swing looked good, his at-bats were good, he was in great shape and he was playing strong defense. If his shoulder is fully recovered, he's my pick here. Gray and Mercado are also good candidates for big jumps forward.
The fallen: Josh Lowe, the team's first-round pick in 2016 (13th overall), hit just .238/.322/.361 for high-A Port Charlotte last year, the second straight season where the would-be power hitter failed to slug .400 or hit even 10 homers. He's adapted well to center field and has turned into an asset on the bases, but until he makes more and better contact -- and there is time, since he'll play at 21 all year -- he's in danger of being passed by better prospects.
Toronto Blue Jays
It's a good system, not a great system, no matter what the front office tells you -- about the system or about me. They have two of the best prospects in the game, bar none, but by the back of the top 10, it has already tapered off, and the "second strength" of this system is the fascinating but far-off collection of Latin American signees who were all in short-season or have yet to debut stateside. It's a group that could very well make this a top-5 system in a year or two.
1. Vlad Guerrero Jr., 3B (ranked No. 2)
2. Bo Bichette, SS/2B (ranked No. 13)
3. Nate Pearson, RHP (ranked No. 77)
4. Danny Jansen, C (just missed)
5. Eric Pardinho, RHP
6. Jordan Groshans, 3B
7. TJ Zeuch, RHP
8. Adam Kloffenstein, RHP
9. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP
10. Kevin Smith, SS
Eric Pardinho can really pitch, especially for someone so young -- the Brazilian right-hander just turned 18 in early January -- with the potential for a strong four-pitch mix with a couple of above-average offerings in the fastball and breaking ball. He's also very undersized, maybe 5-foot-10, and the history of right-handers that size isn't great as starters. The hope here, and the reason I still have Pardinho ranked high within this system, is that his command and feel for pitching make him an exception, so he doesn't have to throw 97 to succeed.
Jordan Groshans was the Jays' first-round pick last year, the lowest-ranked player on my board to go in the first round, a shortstop in high school who will almost certainly end up at another position, likely third, although his hands are good enough for second, too. Groshans has pretty solid bat-to-ball skills even though he has a big swing with a lot of moving parts to it; there's power in here, although his swing's finish doesn't always let him get to it.
T.J. Zeuch had a full, healthy season in 2018, which is the best news of all, and continued to get a ton of ground balls with his sinker while rarely walking guys. He doesn't miss a lot of bats, with just an average slider and fringy changeup, so he's probably a back-end starter, maybe a fourth, but should get there this year.
Adam Kloffenstein was the Jays' third-round pick but got first-round money. He also was Groshans' teammate, which is nice for the two kids, unless they secretly hate each other, in which case this is the worst idea ever. He looks the part of a workhorse starter, 6-foot-4 with the frame to end up with a big and durable body, and will sit 91-94 with higher peaks and good spin on the breaking ball. His delivery can get violent, which is one reason I ranked him as more of a second-round talent, but the timing is good, and he extends well over his front side. I think he's far away from the majors, but you could see a No. 3 starter coming from where he is now.
Sean Reid-Foley is a four-seam/slider guy who doesn't have an adequate third pitch for lefties but dominated right-handers in Double- and Triple-A last year, to the point where got a crack at the Jays' rotation and may get another this year. Kevin Smith was the Jays' fourth-round pick in 2017 out of the University of Maryland, but they sent the nearly 22-year-old -- he missed the seasonal age cutoff by four days, so he played at 21 -- to low-A, where he raked and was promoted to high-A, then was much more ordinary. He probably stays at shortstop and does have mistake power, enough to maybe hit 20-plus homers but with a low OBP that might make it hard for him to start.
Anthony Alford (11) just can't seem to stay healthy, and he has a high-maintenance swing that came apart on him last year with a .238/.314/.339 line, mostly in Triple-A. He's still such a good athlete and inexperienced enough for his age that you can't give up on him, but the clock is starting to tick on his chances to be more than a bench piece. The Jays gave Orelvis Martinez (12) a $1.6 million signing bonus last July; the Dominican shortstop is reported to have very good plate discipline for a 16-year-old with real upside at the plate in both contact and power. His BP is apparently something to behold, with loud contact and power already. He's a shortstop now, raw in the field, with good hands plus plenty of arm strength, although his body could develop to the point that he has to move to third, where he could be a plus defender. He hasn't played in games yet.
The Jays acquired right-hander Trent Thornton (13) this winter from Houston in the Aledmys Diaz trade. Thornton throws four pitches, and the three that spin -- the fastball, slider and curve -- all have spin rates near the top of the ranges for those pitch types. Thornton has started so far but it's a high-effort delivery and his command and control are both short of average. He's still fascinating because of what he can make the ball do, even though the odds are he ends up in relief. Catcher Gabriel Moreno (14) struck out just 20 times in 167 plate appearances last year between the GCL and the Appy League. He tore the GCL apart, going 38-for-92 there before the Jays promoted him. He's a strong kid who's very athletic behind the dish and projects to both stay there and have value on defense.
Miguel Hiraldo (15), another Dominican-born shortstop, debuted last year after signing for $750,000 in 2017. He's shorter and probably more likely than Martinez to fill out enough to move off short, but has a good feel to hit and had a solid debut in the Summer League before getting a cup of coffee in the states.
Griffin Conine (16), son of Mister Marlin himself, could have been a first-round pick coming into last spring but hit so poorly and struck out so much in his junior year at Duke that he fell all the way to the 52nd overall pick. It's all about approach, both pitch recognition and pitch selection, which didn't really improve in pro ball as Conine punched out a quarter of the time in the short-season Northwest League. He does, however, have a sound swing and above-average power. Right-hander Hector Perez (17) came from Houston in the Roberto Osuna trade. He's a tall, strong right-hander who throws quite hard and can get good shape on two breaking balls, but has a hard delivery to repeat and 40 command. I think you develop guys like him as a starter for as long as you can, but know the odds are he ends up in relief.
Panamanian shortstop Leonardo Jimenez (18) signed for $800,000 and is a premium defender with a clean body and contact-oriented swing; he struck out just 17 times in 150 PA in the GCL last year at age 17. He's unlikely to have any power even when he fills out, so his upside is a bit limited. But he's going to stay at short, and high-contact, low-power, plus-defensive shortstops can play a very long time and even end up with unwarranted Hall of Fame consideration.
Alejandro Kirk (19) is a fat catcher who can hit, and as Willians Astudillo has shown us, everybody loves a fat catcher who can hit. Kirk's size is concerning for a 19-year-old, but he catches pretty well and has both power and a good approach (33 BB to 21 K in the Appy League last year). Right-hander Patrick Murphy (20) just had his first full, healthy season since he was drafted in 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in high school, showing enough with a three-pitch mix to be a possible fifth starter or a long man who can go through an order twice if needed.
Two unranked players whose stat lines might have caught your eyes: Ryan Noda didn't belong in low-A last year, as the University of Cincinnati product turned 22 before the season began, so his stat line is kind of useless. He did make a fair amount of hard contact, though, so there's at least a chance there's something here for the corner outfielder/first baseman. ... Cavan Biggio had a superficially nice year, with more than 100 walks and 26 homers, but it's largely an illusion -- he knows a ball from a strike but doesn't hit better pitching, and word got around the Eastern League early that he was trying to pull everything he could turn on. From June 1 on, he hit .219/.363/.413 with a 27 percent strikeout rate, and he was totally overmatched in the Fall League when I saw him. He also has no position -- maybe right field, probably left or first base -- and his bat isn't going to profile at any of those spots.
Also of note: Billy McKinney, acquired in the J.A. Happ trade, is a nice left-handed bat off the bench who is mostly limited to left field. He has a pretty swing but doesn't get on base and has never shown more than average power. ... Amell Brazoban just signed over the summer for about $70,000 to $80,000. The Dominican center fielder is a plus runner with above-average raw power and good range in center but a crude approach.
2019 impact: Vlad Jr. is ready now; he was ready eight months ago. He should be on the Opening Day roster. He should be the AL Rookie of the Year. Let's see how this plays out, but the Jays' refusal to recall him last September doesn't give me a lot of optimism. Bichette isn't that far behind. Jansen should be the Jays' primary catcher, at least as much as he's able to handle; staying healthy has always been his main issue. Reid-Foley will be on the staff in some role, and Zeuch might as well. Alford and Thornton are around, but with no clear roles unless there's an unexpected need at some point.
Sleeper: Moreno could be a catcher who hits for average, gets on base and has some pop, while providing real value on defense. He'll play at 19 this year, but given his present skill level, he could spend part or most of 2019 in low-A, and performing well there in a larger sample would launch his value.
The fallen: A year after he was the 22nd pick in the first round -- and a perfectly reasonable selection at that spot, if not a very good one -- Logan Warmoth has lost all of his industry value after a .248/.322/.319 debut in high-A at age 22, putting him in the bottom 10 percent of all minor leaguers in isolated power. He may have the defensive chops to stay at shortstop, but unless you're an 80 runner (he's not), you can't get away with that little power in the majors any more.