When I published my ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball, I was considering the long-term value of the players on the list and off of it. I also was considering how far away they were and the risk that they might not reach their ceilings and might fail to reach the majors at all. Potential impact in 2019 was a small consideration. Although there's clear value in being confident that Player X is going to produce for you this year, few teams will give up big, long-term upside for the certainty of a player in the short term.
This list, however, looks just at potential production in 2019 in light of what I think each player's likely playing time might be, though we have two months left before teams set their Opening Day rosters. Many players I've written up here will probably start the year in the minors or on a bench, but they seem likely enough to get significant major league time in 2019 that I've ranked them accordingly.
I have written about the top 20 prospects for this year, and I have listed in a separate section at the end anyone else I think has a good shot of producing this year, in roughly descending order.
1. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays: I don't know where he'll play when he comes up, but he was ready to hit major league pitching last May, and I'm sure the Jays will be happy to bring him up about two weeks into the season, once they've secured that extra year of control. (It would be hilarious if the next CBA obviated all these service-time machinations and teams gained nothing from their maneuvers.) He'd be my pick for AL Rookie of the Year right now, and I would be very surprised if he hits under .300 in a mostly full season in the majors.
2. Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals: If Bryce Harper doesn't return to Washington, Robles has the center field job to lose, and I feel good that he'll keep it -- his defense, speed and batting eye are all major-league-ready, while his power is probably somewhere down the road. Of course, the major league ball makes a lot of hitters' power look better, and teammate Juan Soto was ready faster than I ever expected.
3. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox: Jimenez is one of many reasons I've said the White Sox could challenge for the top of the AL Central this year, though it's likely that he'll be on the Vlad Junior "He needs two weeks to work on his defense" plan. Jimenez hit .337/.384/.577 last year between Double-A and Triple-A, rarely strikes out and is still growing into his power, and his defense is just fine, thanks. If Vlad weren't here, Eloy would be my AL Rookie of the Year pick.
4. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Houston Astros: I saw Whitley in the Arizona Fall League, and he could have pitched in a big league rotation with the stuff he showed that day. I'm sure the Astros have a plan for ramping up his innings since he barely pitched in 2018 between a suspension for a stimulant and a minor injury, but I don't think there's much left for him to learn from facing minor league hitting in 2019.
5. Nick Senzel, something something, Cincinnati Reds: The Reds can't seem to settle on a position for Senzel, who turned himself into a good third baseman for his draft year, could almost certainly play above-average defense at second, has had a series of odd injuries and now apparently is learning to play center field. I think he'll hit wherever he plays, probably for average and doubles power but fewer than 20 homers, even considering the home park, though I think he'll eventually come into more home run power than that.
6. Francisco Mejia, C, San Diego Padres: We'll see how good (or not good) Mejia is behind the plate. The Padres think he can catch, Cleveland's player development people thought he could catch, and I really think he can hit. If he catches just well enough to keep the job, he'll make some All-Star teams.
7. Touki Toussaint, RHP, Atlanta Braves and
8. Mike Soroka, RHP, Atlanta Braves: One of these two pitchers should end up as Atlanta's fifth starter, though the team doesn't really need one for the first few weeks of the season and can probably defer a decision until May. Toussaint has health on his side, as Soroka missed half of 2018 with a sore shoulder; Soroka throws more strikes right now. They're both quite good, with Touki bringing more upside but definitely more near-term risk. Soroka's risk is about 75 percent health and 25 percent his ability to get left-handed batters out.
9. Justus Sheffield, LHP, Seattle Mariners: At the moment, Sheffield appears to be Seattle's sixth starter, with the first three spots locked down and King Felix, while no longer effective, unlikely to be bumped from the rotation. The Mariners' fifth starter, Wade LeBlanc, just had a career year at age 33.
10. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres: My No. 1 overall prospect will probably start 2019 in Triple-A, since his 2018 season ended with a thumb injury in mid-July. But there are two factors that favor him spending most of this season in the majors. First, he's blocked only by Ian Kinsler (with Luis Urias sliding from short to second), and second, he's the best prospect in baseball, someone the Padres would very much like to have in the majors to show their fans they're about to be a very good team.
11. Luis Urias, 2B, San Diego Padres: Urias actually has a job right now, having debuted in the fall, with nobody in his way at shortstop and only Kinsler on the roster at second for when Tatis Jr. arrives. Urias should hit for average and a .350-.360 OBP, albeit with only single-digit home run totals.
12. Josh James, RHP, Houston Astros: It appears that the Astros are ready to give James a spot in their rotation, a remarkable turnaround from when he was barely on the radar after 2017, out of shape and struggling to find the strike zone. James will rank among the hardest-throwing starters in baseball this year, and while he'll probably struggle some with command and control, he's going to miss a lot of bats.
13. Danny Jansen, C, Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays appear to be ready to hand the bulk of their catching duties to Jansen, who raked in the high minors with tremendous contact rates, though he's a fringy (or worse) defender behind the plate. He has never caught 100 games in any season, however, which makes it hard to forecast him doing so this year or getting to make the same kind of impact as other players higher on this list.
14. Peter Alonso, 1B, New York Mets: The Mets are overloaded at first base: Dom Smith is still there but seems to be out of favor with the new regime, and they just acquired J.D. Davis from Houston. Alonso's path to playing time isn't all that clear right now, but given his power and comments Brodie Van Wagenen has made, I think Alonso will end up with the bulk of the at-bats there. He's a below-average defender, and that could eventually cause an issue for an NL team, but if he gets 500 plate appearances, he'll probably hit 25-plus homers.
15. Kevin Newman, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates: Newman has the shortstop job for now, with teammate Kevin Kramer also likely to see a lot of at-bats in the infield. Newman has always been a high-contact hitter who puts the ball in play early in the count, so the above-average power that scouts have seen in BP just doesn't show up in games. As is, he's probably a solid regular at short between his defense and the chance for him to hit .280/.340/.370, but there could be more in there if he looks more for pitches to drive.
16. Richie Martin, SS, Baltimore Orioles: I don't think Martin is a great prospect, but he's the Orioles' starting shortstop as of today, and I think he'll do enough to hold the job for most of the year as a below-average regular. He puts the ball in play and has above-average speed, without a great approach overall, and has the athleticism to play short but not the consistency.
17. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros: Tucker might not have a job in Houston right now, and more than one executive told me that Houston might be a little down on Tucker at the moment, but I think he's ready to hit major league pitching and a better option right now than the Astros' assortment of DH candidates. Tucker can play all three outfield spots, so even carrying him in a role that has him in the lineup most nights but at four positions (including DH) would make the team better and let him continue his development. He's lower on this list because I'm not sure how much he'll play, and I think his impact will be limited now, with a much higher peak two or three years down the road.
18. Alex Verdugo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: Verdugo has nothing left to prove in the minors, and it seems like there's going to be a job for him in the majors, with the Dodgers apparently looking to trade Joc Pederson, and Kiké Hernandez better suited to a utility role than to everyday duty in an outfield corner. Verdugo has hit all over the minors with incredible contact rates, showing strength for power but not driving the ball enough for more than 15 homers in a full season in the majors, though the Dodgers could work their launch angle woo on him to try to get there.
19. Christin Stewart, OF, Detroit Tigers: Stewart came up to the majors in September and surprised everyone by posting a .375 OBP, drawing 10 walks against just 13 strikeouts in 72 plate appearances, as his scouting report revolved more around power and some swing-and-miss, though he improved in his plate discipline rates in his first stint in Triple-A too. The Tigers are going nowhere in 2019, so they should just give Stewart 500 PAs to see what he can do. He's 25, so there's no projection left, but he should hit 20-odd homers with a mid-.300s OBP and below-average defense this year.
20. Griffin Canning, RHP, Los Angeles Angels: The Angels have cobbled together a rotation of Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, Peter, Paul and Mary, choosing to focus on their bullpen while taking fliers on guys such as Matt Harvey (a good choice for that). It's very easy for me to envision a scenario in which the Angels need a live body to make a start in early May, and Canning, who made 13 starts in Triple-A last year, comes up to make that start and ends up throwing 100-plus innings for the team. On paper, he's probably one of the five best starters in the organization right now anyway.
Honorable mentions: Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies; Chris Paddack, RHP, and Logan Allen, LHP, San Diego Padres; Eric Haase, C, Cleveland Indians; Zack Brown, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers; Erik Swanson, RHP, Seattle Mariners; Austin Riley, 3B, Atlanta Braves; Peter Lambert, RHP, Colorado Rockies