We already ran down the top 100 prospects in baseball, so now it's time go deeper by division. Today, it's the National League West, starting with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
To jump to the other teams, click here: Rockies | Dodgers | Padres | Giants
Division overviews: NL East | NL Central | AL East | AL Central | AL West
Editor's note: Age is the player's age as of July 1, 2019. Players with experience in foreign major leagues such as Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball or South Korea's Korea Baseball Organization are ineligible for these rankings.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks' system was in sad shape when the team parted ways with general manager Dave Stewart and Chief Baseball Thinkin' Guy Tony La Russa two years ago, but a few low-level prospects who were already in the system at the time have since blossomed into potential stars, and the new regime's first two drafts look extremely productive even though they might get zero return from their two first-round picks. (For readers looking for names from the Paul Goldschmidt trade, neither Carson Kelly nor Luke Weaver is rookie-eligible.)
1. Jazz Chisholm, SS (ranked No. 32)
2. Jon Duplantier, RHP (ranked No. 40)
3. Daulton Varsho, C (ranked No. 89)
4. Kristian Robinson, OF (ranked No. 93)
5. Alek Thomas, OF
6. Jake McCarthy, OF
7. Taylor Widener, RHP
8. Taylor Clarke, RHP
9. Geraldo Perdomo, SS
10. Drew Ellis, 3B
The Diamondbacks failed to come to terms with their first-round pick in 2018, prep infielder Matt McLain, but might come out all right in the end because they landed two first-round talents with their next two picks in Thomas and McCarthy.
Alek Thomas was incredibly polished for a prep outfielder from a cold-weather state (Illinois), dominating at two short-season levels right out of the draft for a .333/.395/.463 line with 12 steals in 17 attempts over 56 games. He's a potential five-tool player depending on how his raw power translates into game power. Right now, he's an above-average to plus runner who can handle center; if he bulks up, he could end up in right, but in that case might end up with 25-plus homers. There are some swing tweaks he'll have to make to unlock more of that power, sometimes closing off his swing because his feet can be so busy at the plate.
Jake McCarthy went in the sandwich round and would have gone in the first had his spring not been almost totally wiped out by a wrist injury. He can really hit, with a good approach, plus speed, and above-average defense in center. He's probably a doubles power guy who might get to 10-15 homers a year barring some change in his swing. Taylor Widener came over in the three-way trade that netted Steven Souza and sent Brandon Drury to the Yankees and Anthony Banda to the Rays, and then had his best year to date, spending all of 2018 in Double-A and striking out 32 percent of opposing batters while working as a starter. The 6-foot right-hander comes from a low three-quarters slot that makes him tough on righties but gives lefties a long look at the ball, and he has a hard time turning over a changeup from that slot and hand position. He throws up to 95 mph, complemented with a slider that's above-average to plus, and could still end up a starter, although the arm action and platoon-split issues give him reliever risk.
Taylor Clarke spent the entire year in the Triple-A Reno rotation, which put him on a schedule pitching mostly in great hitters' parks (20 of his 27 starts, by my rough count), and pitched well, posting a 4.03 ERA and keeping the ball in the park more often than you'd expect from where he pitched. He's still throwing 92-94 mph velocity, also working with a slider and big curveball, with enough of changeup to keep lefties in check, and he should be the first guy called up whenever Arizona needs another starter.
Geraldo Perdomo starred at three stops in short-season last year for a .322/.438/.460 line, playing the entire summer at 18 and walking nearly as often as he struck out (39-44). He's a true shortstop, although Arizona had him play a little second; he's very athletic with easy actions and a lot of energy to his game, with an above-average arm. At the plate, he has feel to hit from both sides with good bat control, lacking power or even much future power projection, but should be a line-drive hitter with good on-base skills and plenty of value on defense to make him at least a solid regular. Drew Ellis is still a pull-oriented hitter with power, striking out much less than expected in high-A last year but at the cost of average and home run production; he's still a work in progress at third.
Pavin Smith (11), Arizona's first-round pick in 2017, hit just .255/.343/.392 in high-A last year, rarely striking out but not making enough hard contact for a first baseman -- although it's clear that he can hit, at least in the sense of putting the ball in play. He's a solid defender at first base and should get on base, but I think the Diamondbacks were hoping they were getting more than Doug Mientkiewicz when they took Smith seventh overall in 2017.
Catcher Andy Yerzy (12) worked hard last offseason to redefine his body and came into camp in much better shape to play his position, blocking and throwing better than he had before. He continued to get on base and show line-drive power with the strength to put 15-20 over the fence when he's playing in full-season ball. Matt Tabor (13) had a solid first full summer in the D-backs' system, with velocity up to 95 mph for a ton of strikes and an above-average changeup; the right-hander needs to improve his breaking ball to be a starter, and there are still real concerns about the effort in his delivery.
Andy Young (14) came over in the Goldschmidt deal with Kelly and Weaver, both of whom have lost their prospect eligibility. Young can hit and looks like he can handle four or five positions well enough to be a super-utility type, maybe becoming a regular at second if his home run totals prove to be more than just mistake power; I think he's more of a 30-doubles, on-base type who could earn 400-500 at-bats with his versatility.
Right-hander Emilio Vargas (15) has largely average stuff but hides the ball extremely well until release, with big extension over his front side to further improve his deception, so he missed a ton of bats in high-A even without an above-average pitch. His upside is limited by his lack of big stuff, but he could be a back-end starter between all that deception and control. Shortstop Blaze Alexander (16) was Arizona's 11th-round pick in 2018, signing an over-slot deal for $500,000, and then went out and surprised just about everyone by hitting well in the Arizona and Pioneer Leagues over the summer. He has a cannon of an arm, but by all accounts his bat was behind most prep position-player prospects, so his strong contact rates in pro ball were unexpected and might show that he's further along than the industry anticipated. He's a plus runner but not quite up to the speed of his name.
Right-hander Yoan Lopez (17) has re-established himself as a prospect after a couple of years of injuries, makeup questions, and possible retirement, bumping 98 mph to go with a power slider now, making him a viable right-handed relief option for this year. Jimmie Sherfy (18) is in the same boat, with a plus fastball/curveball combination but inferior control to Lopez's and more effort to the delivery.
Third-rounder Jackson Goddard (19) throws 90-92 mph to go with a potentially average changeup and a starter's delivery, but the right-hander needs to improve his command and control as well as finding some sort of average third pitch to start. Fourth-rounder Ryan Weiss (20) dials heat up to only 92 mph to go with big depth on his upper-70s curveball, coming from a high slot that makes it hard for hitters to pick the ball up; between that and his control, he could end up a fifth or even fourth starter.
Others of note: Fifth-rounder Matt Mercer is a pure reliever with arm strength, touching 98 mph in the final game of the Northwest League playoffs, struggling with control in college but at least throwing strikes all summer (the right-hander walked seven in 29 innings after signing, but four came in one outing). Matt Peacock worked as a starter at both levels of A-ball last year, but with the fastball being his only above-average pitch, he's probably a reliever in the end, as is fellow right-hander Kevin Ginkel, both taken after the 20th round in their respective drafts. Eighth-rounder Levi Kelly will touch 95 mph, but the right-hander's velocity sits more in the low 90s, with some effort to the delivery, but he has an outside chance to start. Third baseman Buddy Kennedy, Arizona's fifth-round pick in 2017 out of Mike Trout's high school in southern New Jersey, hit .327/.396/.465 in the Pioneer League as a 19-year-old last year, although he still lacks a clear position.
2019 impact: The Diamondbacks don't need a starter from the system right now, but Clarke would likely get the first call when they do need one, and Widener the second. Lopez and Sherfy should both spend most or all of the year in the big league bullpen. Young isn't far from a major-league bench role.
Sleeper: Perdomo has the best chance of anyone here to go from outside the top 100 into the middle of it, especially given the value of his position and defense.
The fallen: Arizona 2014 second-rounder Marcus Wilson appeared to break through as a prospect in 2017 in low-A, but didn't hit at all in high-A last year -- even though the California League is a better environment for hitters -- and the outfielder got worse as the season progressed. He's still just 22 and was always expected to be a slow developer, but the failure to build on the across-the-board progress of his 2017 season was a big disappointment.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies' system had a down year overall in 2018. Several high-profile prospects had poor seasons or just didn't advance as expected. They've also stopped finding talent on the July 2 market: I've ranked 20 prospects here, and only one, Breiling Eusebio at No. 19, was signed by the Rockies as an international free agent. I do have a lot of hope for prospects in this system who fell below the top 100 or "just missed" category.
1. Brendan Rodgers, SS (ranked No. 28)
2. Peter Lambert, RHP (ranked No. 92)
3. Grant Lavigne, 1B (Just missed)
4. Colton Welker, 3B (Just missed)
5. Ryan Rolison, LHP
6. Ryan Vilade, SS
7. Garrett Hampson, 2B/SS
8. Tyler Nevin, 1B
9. Sam Hilliard, OF
10. Terrin Vavra, 2B
Ryan Rolison was the Rockies' first-round pick last year, slipping from a potential top-10 selection down to pick No. 22 after his delivery became way more cross-body than it had been the previous spring and summer. If the Rockies can get him back on line to the plate, they'll have a steal with No. 3 starter potential, maybe even more, as he brings 92-95 mph velocity from the left side as well as a plus curveball.
Ryan Vilade was their first pick in 2017, 48th overall (they lost their first pick for signing Ian Desmond ... sorry, too soon?), and had an unusual full-season debut by hitting better on the road in 2018 than he did at hitter-friendly Asheville. He's a high-contact hitter with a great work ethic and by all accounts a high baseball IQ. He started very slowly last year but improved across the board as the season progressed; if you split his 124-game season in half, he hit .305/.367/.406 after the midpoint, with just 30 strikeouts in those final 62 games. He has played only shortstop, but I'd put it at 80 percent or higher that he moves to second or third, given his size and footwork. He's an average runner who was caught stealing too many times last year (12 times in 29 attempts).
Garrett Hampson is a 60-grade runner with good bat control and maybe 30 power, a potential plus defender at second who doesn't have the arm strength for the left side of the infield. That's a tough profile -- he's either a fringy overall defender at short who hits adequately for the position, or he's a great second baseman who doesn't deliver the thump you want from that spot. Either way, he seems likely to get first crack at the now-open second-base job in Denver.
Tyler Nevin had a modest breakout last year that needs a little skepticism since it came at hitter-friendly Lancaster, but he hit for a higher average on the road and made a lot of contact everywhere. The right-right bats/throws first-base profile is an unusual one but he has a really good, efficient swing, looks like he'll have above-average power, and is fine around the bag; he has played some third but that seems unlikely on more than an emergency basis. The biggest issue for Nevin will be staying healthy; last year was his first season hitting 400 plate appearances, and he still missed several weeks with quadriceps injuries.
Sam Hilliard had a disappointing year in Double-A, swinging and missing so much that he couldn't really get to his power, with a .262/.327/.389 line for Hartford. The former 15th-round pick still has above-average to plus power, plus speed and a plus arm, tools that would give him a long run as an extra outfielder if he could get his contact rate up, but his approach and off-speed pitch recognition aren't there yet.
Terrin Vavra was Colorado's third-round pick in 2018 after Rolison, Lavigne and second-rounder Mitchell Kilkenny. He has a solid left-handed swing that should produce contact and above-average power; he's a shortstop now but will end up at second base, and gets praised all over the place for his instincts.
Ryan Castellani (11) had a down year across the board in Double-A, exacerbated by a raise in his arm slot that was corrected late in the season but didn't seem to restore his command or all his stuff. He can show 90-95 mph velocity to go with an above-average slider and below-average changeup when he's right, but last year nothing was working for him and he should almost certainly return to Hartford rather than going to the pitchers' hell of Albuquerque. I saw right-hander Jesus Tinoco (12) three times last year, once as a starter where he was just ordinary, and twice as a reliever, where he was a different guy, throwing 93-96 mph in that role as well as a plus slider at 86-88 that had short, tight, almost cutter break. In both of those outings he pitched more aggressively than he had as a starter, as if he knew he was better in that role.
Lefty Ben Bowden (13) missed all of 2017 due to a back injury, but returned in 2018 with his stuff intact, still working with 93-95 mph velocity to go with an average slider and changeup. He stayed healthy and had success against hitters on both sides of the plate all season. He should start out in Double-A and I wouldn't be surprised to see him jump from there to the major-league bullpen midseason. He's no relation to Ralph. Right-hander Reid Humphreys (14) works with a plus fastball/cutter combination, faring very well at Lancaster last year before a late-season bump to Double-A, where he struggled more with command; it's a late-game arsenal that has made him effective against left-handed batters, as long as he can throw enough strikes.
The Rockies took right-hander Robert Tyler (15) in the supplemental round in 2016, only to see him struggle to find the plate at all that summer (16 walks in seven innings!) and then miss 2017 with a sore shoulder. He returned last year in a relief role and had some real success, striking out nearly a third of the batters he faced and walking just seven in 38⅓ innings, although he got rocked during a month in high-A to end the season. If he throws enough strikes, he shows a plus-plus fastball and plus changeup, enough that he should get left- and right-handed batters out enough to be a middle reliever or even a high-leverage one.
Fourth-rounder Ryan Feltner (16) throws up to 95-96 mph from the right side with an above-average changeup and average or better command; he walked four in 30⅔ pro innings for Grand Junction in his debut. He's slight of build with some effort in the delivery, and lacks an average breaking ball, all reasons he might end up in the bullpen. Right-hander Mitchell Kilkenny (17) has three average pitches but lacks the plus offering to be more than a back-end starter right now, although the extension in his delivery helps his 92-94 mph fastball play up a bit. He was the Rockies' second-round pick last summer, but his post-draft physical revealed a torn elbow ligament, so he signed under slot and underwent Tommy John surgery.
Right-hander Justin Lawrence (18) hit 100 mph in the Arizona Fall League coming from a near sidearm slot, sitting mid-90s, without much else in the repertoire, but he can probably work as a right-handed specialist because of the slot and the life on the fastball from that low slot. Lefty Breiling Eusebio (19) had Tommy John surgery after just three starts and might return later this year. Sixth-rounder Niko Decolati (20) is right fielder with power, some patience, and a lot of swing-and-miss, with a big-time leak at the plate that hurts his contact rates.
2019 impact: Hampson seems to have first shot at the second-base job, with Rodgers likely starting at Albuquerque and perhaps challenging for a spot on the big league roster in the summer. I could see Bowden or Tinoco getting major league relief innings this year.
Sleeper: Vilade was my sleeper last year, but didn't perform enough or do enough to impress scouts to make the leap into the top 100 this year. He finished so strongly, though, and now gets to go to one of the best hitter's environments in the minors, so I'm doubling down.
The fallen: Their first-round pick in 2016, Riley Pint, threw just 8⅓ innings in 2018 around shoulder and oblique injuries as well as his own wildness, walking 11 batters in that brief span. He still throws extremely hard, and can show you a wipeout breaking ball, but there's no consistency to anything here just yet and he needs innings to develop as even a high-end reliever. He'll pitch this year at 21, likely back in low-A if his health permits.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers' system remains strong, boosted by a trade this winter with the Reds that brought back two top-10 prospects and by a huge signing on the July 2 front. They're also incredibly deep at catcher, a position of chronic need just about everywhere else in baseball.
1. Keibert Ruiz, C (ranked No. 27)
2. Alex Verdugo, OF (ranked No. 37)
3. Gavin Lux, SS (ranked No. 41)
4. Dustin May, RHP (ranked No. 49)
5. Will Smith, C (ranked No. 79)
6. Tony Gonsolin, RHP (Just missed)
7. Jeter Downs, SS
8. Josiah Gray, RHP
9. Mitch White, RHP
10. Diego Cartaya, C
Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray both came over in the deal that sent Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood and Matt Kemp's Enormous Contract to Cincinnati. Downs, who was indeed named for The Captain, was the 32nd overall pick in 2017. He's a shortstop now who likely ends up at second base, and a high-contact hitter with plus speed and a good swing for line drives but probably not more than average power. It's also possible he'll end up in center, given his speed. At the plate, his walk rate of just under 10 percent as a 19-year-old in full-season Dayton last year was promising. Gray, the Reds' second-round pick just this past June, came out of Division II Le Moyne, and was a late convert to pitching, with above-average velocity and an average slider that will flash plus. His changeup is below-average, but he pitched well enough in the short-season Appalachian League to boost his trade value, and teams like that he didn't pitch much as an amateur. He has No. 3 starter ceiling with a high floor as an impact reliever.
Mitch White was a top-50 prospect on my midseason list in 2017, but the injuries started to mount up, with a foot injury and a back injury killing his velocity and costing him command. (Full disclosure: Those rankings take about a week to assemble and write; the offseason package takes well over a month.) The back issue lingered into 2018, although he improved as the summer went on, getting back to 93-95 mph late in the summer, and walking fewer guys. He made 22 appearances in 2018, walked at least two batters in every one of his first 10 outings (22 total in 37⅔ innings), then walked 12 men in his final 12 outings (67⅔ innings). When healthy, he has true top-of-the-rotation stuff, up to 97 mph to go with two above-average to plus breaking balls, so there's always a chance he makes a big jump if his back holds up.
Diego Cartaya was one of the top July 2 prospects for 2018 and signed with the Dodgers for $2.5 million. He's a plus defender with an advanced eye at the plate and a gap-to-gap approach that should produce solid contact early, with projection for power down the road. He could debut in the AZL this summer at 17, and if his bat is as good as advertised, he might be a star -- and would give the Dodgers a third catching prospect in the top 100.
Some American League team needs to trade for Edwin Rios (11), who is probably just a first base/left field type, or maybe a cheap designated hitter, but he has a long track record now of making hard contact with above-average power. He doesn't walk a ton and it's not huge raw power, but there's enough here for an average regular at those spots who'll make the minimum salary for three years.
Right-hander Michael Grove (12) was a surprise pick at the end of the second round, as he missed the spring due to Tommy John surgery, returning to the mound in the instructional league. He was throwing 90-96 mph before the surgery along with a power slider with a very high spin rate, but had some questions about whether his delivery would keep him in a starting role.
Dennis Santana (13) pulled an oblique muscle in his big league debut that ended his season, along with some rotator cuff soreness, but should be ready to go in March. He's a low-slot right-hander whose fastball velocity sits in the mid-90s to go with a slider that can get a little flat; his changeup is below average, and both his arm slot and cross-body delivery will give left-handed batters an advantage against him. Between that and the stress the delivery puts on his shoulder, he seems very likely to end up as a reliever.
DJ Peters (14) is compared ad nauseam to Jayson Werth, as he's of similar build, has somewhat similar tools and has very similar hair. He also punched out 192 times last year in Double-A, a 34 percent rate at age 23 that puts him on the border of non-prospect status even with all the things he can do. If you can't make enough contact against Double-A pitching, well, it doesn't get any easier from there.
Catcher Connor Wong (15), their third-round pick in 2017, starting swinging more for power, hitting 19 homers in 102 games, but went from high contact to high strikeout totals. He's an adequate defensive catcher who has played some second base and could fill the Austin Barnes multiposition/backup-catcher role at some point.
Mexican-born right-hander Gerardo Carrillo (16) throws 91-96 mph with some late sink to go with a potentially above-average curveball and what is currently a well below-average changeup. He still has some projection left and very good feel for a 19-year-old, spending most of his time on the mound in low-A last year, but between his current size and lack of a third pitch there's a lot of bullpen risk here. Jacob Amaya (17) was their 11th-round pick in 2017 and is a middle infielder with good bat-to-ball skills and a solid eye at the plate, with as many walks as strikeouts last year between low-A and short-season. He's unlikely to have power but does enough at the plate and at short and second base to profile as at least a utility infielder.
Robinson Ortiz (17) signed in July 2016, and by instructional league the following fall he was earning comparisons to seven-figure high school lefties from the U.S. He has touched 94 mph but would sit just average, as low sometimes as 87-90 mph, but with potential for an average slider and above-average changeup. He doesn't have any physical projection left, although some delivery fine-tuning might help his velocity sit at 90-plus and tighten his command. He could be a back-end starter.
Braydon Fisher (18) was Los Angeles' fourth-round pick in 2018. He's very raw and athletic, with a loose arm that gets him up to 95 mph already, but he over-rotates in his delivery and has a short stride, both of which could make him less likely to hold up as a starting pitcher.
Bryan Warzek (19) pitched for the University of New Orleans this spring, where the Privateers abused his arm in their conference championship series, throwing him 110 pitches in one outing and bringing him back two days later to throw 42 more pitches in relief. He has a knockout breaking ball that helped him strike out 33 of 81 batters he faced in low-A after signing, against just three walks. He's most likely to end up a reliever but should miss enough bats with the breaking ball to succeed there.
Jeren Kendall (20), their first-round pick in 2017, went to high-A last year and laid an egg, striking out 32 percent of the time on his way to a .215/.300/.356 line in a decent hitters' park as a 22-year-old. He's a 70-grade runner with plus raw power, and his swing just does not work. By all accounts, he hasn't adjusted it at all since leaving Vanderbilt, but if he doesn't rework it -- or let the Dodgers help him rework it, soon -- he's going to swing his way right out of the minors.
Edwin Uceta (21) was a skinny, 6-foot right-hander when the Dodgers first signed him, but he's filled out to about 180 pounds and is now throwing 89-92 mph and with some feel for a curveball, although that and his changeup are both below-average, and the changeup isn't promising. As for Yadier Alvarez (22), read on.
2019 impact: Verdugo is ready to play every day for someone, although it seems the Dodgers would prefer not to give him a regular job. Santana, if healthy, should be part of their staff for most of this year.
Sleeper: If Cartaya is who we think he is, he'll be a top-50 guy this time next year -- he just hasn't taken a game at-bat on U.S. soil yet.
The fallen: Right-hander Yadier Alvarez was a top-100 guy two separate times, but last year walked 43 batters in 48⅓ innings in Double-A, with scouts questioning his effort level in-game. He still has upper-90s velocity with a plus slider and potentially plus changeup, but if he can't throw strikes and/or isn't putting in the work, it won't matter. Right-hander Yasiel Sierra didn't pitch the entire season due to injury; I saw him in spring training and his stuff was clearly down. Outfielder Starling Heredia was overmatched at Great Lakes, with a 37 percent strikeout rate, before a vision issue ended his season. Those three players received bonuses or contract guarantees of $16 million, $30 million and $2.6 million, respectively.
San Diego Padres
The Padres' system remains the strongest in baseball, and is still as deep in potential above-average regulars as any organization in the game right now. This might be their last year on top, as they're set to graduate as many as five of their eight prospects in the top 100 this year, and there could be a year or two of a gap before their next wave of teenagers heads into the middle to top of the main rankings. But they are set to contend for a long time with the sheer quantity of high-ceiling talent here.
1. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS (ranked No. 1)
2. MacKenzie Gore, LHP (ranked No. 7)
3. Francisco Mejia, C (ranked No. 29)
4. Chris Paddack, RHP (ranked No. 44)
5. Adrian Morejon, LHP (ranked No. 46)
6. Luis Patino, RHP (ranked No. 50)
7. Luis Urias, SS/2B (ranked No. 56)
8. Logan Allen, LHP (ranked No. 80)
9. Ryan Weathers, LHP (Just missed)
10. Tirso Ornelas, OF
Tirso Ornelas was one of three 18-year-old position players with Fort Wayne last year, and he continued to produce hard contact while showing an advanced feel for the strike zone -- still not showing power yet but with more expected as he fills out. He's going to end up in right field, so he does need to put more balls in the seats as he gets older, but the fact that he was above the league median in strikeout rate while coming in well above the median walk rate is all a big positive. His swing is still among my favorites in the minors.
Tucupita Marcano (11) can flat-out hit, making his U.S. debut last year between the AZL and the Northwest League, posting a strikeout rate under 7 percent for the summer, and showing he could hit good velocity at both stops. He's a 60-grade runner who plays short now, could easily handle second, and might be passable at third, and he'll probably move around because of the other shortstops around him in the system. But last year's No. 30 prospect did what I expected him to do and then some. Even at second base, his hit tool and speed should make him an above-average regular.
Right-hander Reggie Lawson (12) has made a lot of progress since the Padres signed him, especially in restoring his delivery after someone shortened his stride and cost him probably a million dollars in the 2016 draft. His fastball is now sitting 94-95 mph when he's starting, which goes well with a plus changeup that has two-seam-like action, attacking hitters in the zone with two pitches; his curveball has more power now at 78-79 mph and he's introduced a slider as well. His ERA last year in the California League was a little misleading; he got bombed in two starts in late July in great hitters' parks in Lancaster and Rancho Cucamonga, giving up 19 runs in 7⅓ innings, adding over a run to his ERA for the season.
Michel Baez (13) was a disappointment last year, with his stuff just generally down across the board, losing velocity and crispness to fastball and breaking stuff alike, and his delivery started to slip as he became more cross-body and less online to the plate. He began the year a few weeks late with a back issue but didn't miss a start from April 23 onward; it's possible he never got right physically, but either way he wasn't the same guy he'd been in 2017.
Josh Naylor (14) continues to produce, hitting .297/.383/.447 last year in Double-A San Antonio, but he's still probably not fully tapping into his power. He's not a 20 runner, but he's going to be a below-average defender in left, even with above-average arm strength. I do think he'll turn out to be fine at first base, which is more than I expected from him as an amateur before he improved his conditioning. He'd be a top-10 prospect in 27 systems, but not this one.
Hudson Potts (15) has worked himself into at least a fringy defender at third, and thanks to a throwing program in the Padres' system, his arm works much better now. He has plus power, trending toward grade 70, but has a big, low path at the plate with an open stride, and he has a hard time covering the inner third of the plate, especially when pitchers come in with velocity. As is, he's a big leaguer, maybe a below-average regular or corner infield backup; if he can cover that inner third better, he has more potential.
Anderson Espinoza (16) has missed two years now around an elbow injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery, but should be ready for spring training and back in games around May. He could be a top-40 prospect again if his stuff has returned, although he's now lost two years of valuable development time.
Center fielder Jeisson Rosario (17) was another of the 18-year-olds on the Fort Wayne roster, drawing an impressive 66 walks, good for sixth in the Midwest League. He's well built at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, and a plus runner who should be plus if not more in center. He can show a little power in batting practice, albeit not yet in games.
Catcher Luis Campusano's (18) season ended in late July due to a concussion, always a concern for catchers, but before that he had a solid full-season debut, rarely striking out, hitting the ball on the ground too much but with good exit velocity. He swings a 35-ounce bat and still shows above-average bat speed, so if he can loft the ball at all he's going to start to hit for power. He blocks well, has an average arm, and continues to work on other aspects of catching like receiving and game-calling. He has above-average ceiling as an offensive catcher with power.
Justin Lopez (19) played about a half-season in Fort Wayne, also at 18 -- he won't turn 19 until May -- and didn't produce there or in a stint in the Australian League this winter, but he's an excellent defensive shortstop with a good swing who just needs to play somewhere appropriate to his age for once. Xavier Edwards (20) was the Padres' second pick in last year's draft, taken in the supplemental round. He was a Miami-area prep shortstop who has plus speed and good actions for the position but whose arm might push him to second base or even to center. He has a short, contact-oriented swing that won't produce power but should let him put the ball in play often and use his speed more on the bases. He could be a solid-average regular.
Jacob Nix (21) made the big leagues last year but really struggled to miss bats or consistently locate his breaking ball, and didn't throw his changeup nearly enough, so left-handed batters really got to him. He could still end up a back-end starter but has to change his pitching plan. Esteury Ruiz (22), acquired in a 2017 trade with the Royals, has electric bat speed and makes very hard contact, but strikes out too often right now due to poor plate discipline and the way he tucks his front shoulder when he swings. He has power and he's a plus runner, with 49 steals last year in 60 attempts. He's played second and third but might just end up in left field. The swings aren't similar, but his skill set and defensive profile aren't too far off from Alfonso Soriano's at the same age.
Pedro Avila (23) is a four-pitch right-hander who throws 90-94 mph along with a plus, high-spin slider. His fastball plays a little light and he often tries to be too fine rather than just attacking hitters with the fastball and slider. He's a potential fourth starter, depending on his command and ability to make in-game adjustments. Right-hander Andres Munoz (24) has been clocked throwing up to 100 mph with some effort, and he's not very physical, but the Padres see enough now stuff here that they pushed him to Double-A last year after he came back from a sore elbow that limited him for the first two months.
Corner infielder Ty France (25) might see time on the Padres' bench this year, playing some third, some first, and just hitting; he hit 19 homers total in 2016-17, then hit 22 last year, without giving up contact or patience. He's not much of a defender anywhere, but hits left- and right-handed pitching well enough to earn a reserve spot, maybe even to start a little at a corner if there's an injury. Buddy Reed (26) is a plus defender in center with quick hands at the plate, but his swing still doesn't work well from either side -- it's handsy, lacking bat control, and doesn't get his lower half involved at all, so there's some contact but no impact. He hit well in Lake Elsinore, a good hitters' park, but was old for high-A, and dropped off across the board in Double-A. His defensive value and speed could make him an up-and-down guy.
Right-hander Nick Margevicius (27) dominated two levels last year by throwing his fringe-average fastball where he wanted it and pairing it with a plus curveball with huge spin to it; he walked 17 batters in 135 innings total between high-A and Double-A, although the fastball comes in at just 90-91 mph and gets hit a bit. He's big and broad-shouldered like you'd want a workhorse starter to be, but if the curveball is his only above-average pitch he's probably a pen guy. Shortstop Owen Miller (28) has good feel to hit, with a much-improved contact rate last spring, but will have to move to second base or become a utility infielder. He might come into average power down the line but should hit enough now for a middle-infield role.
Austin Allen (29) continued to show plus power at age 24 in Double-A, and he's an adequate defender behind the plate to be a good backup catcher, although he probably lacks the receiving and throwing skills to be a regular. Right-hander Trey Wingenter (30) throws 96-99 mph to go with a power slider from a low arm slot, but got touched up a bit by lefties in his major league debut at the end of the season.
And so, so many others of note: Mexican right-hander Efrain Contreras, known as "The Embalmer" because his family works in the mortuary world, is just 5-foot-10 but works in the mid- to upper 90s and has a power slider. Last year, he walked just 14 in 68⅓ innings across the Dominican Summer League, AZL and Northwest League. Another Mexican teenager, outfielder Agustin Ruiz, has an advanced approach for his age (he'll play at 19 all year) but hasn't tapped into his power yet, although he's worked on adding muscle this winter. Gabriel Arias was the third 18-year-old regular in Fort Wayne, and probably wasn't ready for the level physically; he won't even turn 19 until late February. He's an elite defender at short with a 70-grade or better arm, but at the plate he's still raw, and he's not a runner.
Edward Olivares might be an extra outfielder with a handful of average tools, but has neither a plus tool nor the plate discipline to make him a potential regular. Michell Miliano's velocity sits at 93-94 mph, thrown with a pretty arm action. He also generates big spin on his slider, but the right-hander is a long way from being a pitcher, walking way too many guys in the AZL last year while posting a 9.21 ERA and getting killed by lefties. Catcher Blake Hunt, one of the Padres' second-round picks in 2017, had a solid year with the bat as a 19-year-old in the Northwest League, getting on base albeit without power. The surprise was that his catching, supposedly a strength in high school, backed up, as he was boxing more balls and neither receiving nor throwing as well as he did as an amateur.
Jonny Homza continued his transition from third base to catcher, repeating the AZL, and could move up to Tri-City this year; he's going to take some time because of the position switch and because the Padres took him from an Alaska high school. Eguy Rosario didn't belong in the Cal League last year as an 18-year-old, but the Padres didn't have spots for all of their teenage middle infielders to play regularly; he was overmatched and wore down physically, with August his worst month by far. Their 2018 fourth-rounder Dylan Coleman is a pure reliever, throwing up to 99 mph with an above-average to plus slider and 40 command if you like him.
Lefty Osvaldo Hernandez, signed as a free agent in March 2017 for $2.5 million, has a plus curveball that gets left-handed hitters out, although the rest of his arsenal might be light for a starter. He throws enough strikes that he should get to continue developing in a starting role for now. Lefty Joey Cantillo, their 16th-round pick in 2017 out of a Hawaii high school, throws 87-90 mph to go with a downer curveball, with some head violence in the delivery, but a lot of deception so that hitters don't see the ball well out of his 6-foot-5, 220-pound frame. He throws strikes now and would be one to watch if his fastball ticks up.
Nick Thwaits was the Padres' 15th-round pick in 2018, a slightly older high school senior, with good spin on the fastball and slider, showing some effort and head violence in the delivery right now, although he repeats his delivery well enough now to throw strikes. Sean Guilbe, their 12th-rounder last year, had an interesting debut in the AZL as a 18-year-old, with 40 walks and 62 strikeouts in 176 PA; throw in his five homers and that's a 61 percent Three True Outcomes rate, enough to make Rob Deer blush. Guilbe is a good athlete but raw at the plate and had makeup questions around him as an amateur, as he attended three high schools in four years.
Two pitchers to watch as they recover from injuries are Jean Cosme, coming back from Tommy John surgery, pitching a little bit at the end of 2018 and now pitching at 90-92 mph, and Hansel Rodriguez, who barely pitched in 2018 around multiple injuries but should be healthy for next year. And, yes, this is really the last part, the Padres are still in the penalty for July 2 signings from their huge spree in 2016-17, but signed a number of players for their maximum bonus of $300,000. Two standouts in the very early going are shortstop Charlie Aquino, who lived in a town right near the Padres' complex in the Dominican Republic, and Venezuelan shortstop Nerwilliam Cedeno.
2019 impact: Urias should be their starting shortstop on Opening Day, moving to second base whenever Tatis is ready. Nix would be in their rotation if the season started today; Paddack isn't far behind and neither is Allen. France should get time as a bench bat, maybe playing the plurality of games at third. Wingenter should be in their Opening Day bullpen.
Sleeper: Marcano can really hit, enough that he'd be a prospect at any position, but he's going to stay in the middle of the field, and I think this is the year he lights up low-A and gets on everyone's radar.
The fallen: Cal Quantrill was a high top-100 prospect for me after his first summer in pro ball, when he was regularly hitting 96 mph to go with a plus changeup. But that stuff has been absent for two years now; he's in the low 90s, the changeup is above average, and he's not coming at hitters the same way, not in his delivery nor in his approach. He might still have value in the bullpen, but barring a sudden return of his fastball I can't see him starting.
San Francisco Giants
New president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has a huge job ahead of him. Years of contention, low draft picks and trades have left San Francisco's system barren both of potential stars and of depth in regulars, exacerbated by a run of first-rounders after 2011 who haven't worked out.
1. Joey Bart, C (ranked No. 82)
2. Heliot Ramos, OF
3. Shaun Anderson, RHP
4. Sean Hjelle, RHP
5. Marco Luciano, SS
6. Logan Webb, RHP
7. Gregory Santos, RHP
8. Tyler Beede, RHP
9. Seth Corry, LHP
10. Alexander Canario, OF
Heliot Ramos was on the top 100 a year ago, but his full-season debut showed he wasn't quite as far along as his AZL performance might have indicated, although he's still a strong prospect and easily second in this system. Playing the entire year at the age of 18, Ramos hit .245/.313/.396 for Augusta with 43 extra-base hits, striking out a not-unreasonable 25 percent of the time in his PA. He's an average runner now, as his body has already begun to fill out, enough so that he's probably a right fielder in the long run, but should have the power output to profile as at least a regular there. When he was drafted, I wrote that his swing was very direct but didn't necessarily show the power you'd expect from his build, but he gets his arms extended well through contact now with plenty of loft to eventually get to 20-plus homers. He could easily have made my "just missed" list.
Shaun Anderson was acquired in the Eduardo Nunez trade with Boston a few summers ago. He was a closer at the University of Florida but has now had success in pro ball as a starter up through Triple-A. His cutter is still his out pitch, but he has more than enough fastball and changeup to profile as a starter, probably still as a back-end guy who throws more than enough strikes and has two weapons to get lefties out. Sean Hjelle was the Giants' second-round pick last year, a 6-foot-11 right-hander whose velocity sits in the low 90s but bumped 95 mph a few times over the summer. He has a solid four-pitch mix with the unusual release point from his height that should make him harder to hit. I'm not sure he has the real out pitch to be more than an average starter, but we also don't have many 6-foot-11 pitchers to whom we can compare him -- only two regular starters in MLB history have been that height, and Hjelle isn't much like Randy Johnson or Chris Young.
Marco Luciano headed the Giants' big class of July 2 signings last year, taking in $2.6 million. He's a shortstop now who could end up in center depending on how his body progresses. He has a great baseball body for a 17-year-old, with strong hands now to drive the ball already, projecting to hit for average and power when he gets out on the field this year. He's an average runner, but his body is fluid and athletic, so he moves well enough that he could stay in the infield as he grows. He could easily be their No. 1 or 2 prospect in a year.
Logan Webb is a fastball/curveball starter who had a solid comeback after missing much of 2016 and 2017 around Tommy John surgery, throwing more strikes as the 2018 season went on while his fastball crept back up into the mid-90s. The former high school quarterback is very aggressive on the mound but doesn't pitch with a lot of finesse, and his changeup is well behind his other two pitches, so he's 60-40 to be a reliever.
Gregory Santos came to the Giants with Anderson in the Nunez deal and has seen his stuff tick up since the trade, with his fastball sitting 96-97 mph last summer to go with a power upper-80s slider that would touch 90 mph. His delivery isn't very fluid but he hides the ball well, coming at hitters from a high three-quarters slot with great arm acceleration. He'll pitch at age 19 this year, moving to full-season ball for the first time. He needs to develop his command and work on his changeup, which is still a fringy offering.
Tyler Beede was slowed by a groin injury early in 2018, had two disastrous MLB outings, and eventually moved to the Triple-A bullpen, where his stuff was good but his command was still absent. He can still get his four-seamer up into the mid-90s and he shows both a plus changeup and above-average slider, but without strikes it's for naught. A fulltime move to relief this year might help him be more aggressive, especially within the zone, and allow the Giants to use him on the major league roster this year.
Seth Corry was their third-round pick in 2017. He's an athletic, projectable prep lefty from Utah who throws 90-94 mph along with a plus curveball and a much improved changeup, although his delivery isn't smooth and has some recoil, and his command and control are still well below-average.
Alexander Canario signed for just $60,000 in 2016 as a good athlete whose baseball skills were way behind, but in his U.S. debut last year in the AZL he started to show evolution to his approach at the plate and his defense in center. He doesn't have any clearly plus tools, running above average with good bat speed and average power, but has a solid-average regular ceiling in center.
Outfielder Heath Quinn (11) repeated high-A after an awful 2017 season ruined by an oblique strain and shoulder soreness, and he did perform, well enough that he deserved a shot at Double-A. He has a simple, balanced swing that should produce hard enough contact for 12-15 homers in the majors with a lot of doubles, although as a corner outfielder only he might not profile as a regular with that output. Third-rounder Jake Wong (12) has a mid-90s fastball with some feel for a hard slider, throwing strikes but lacking average command. He's probably a reliever in the long run but good enough now to develop as a starter.
Third baseman Luis Toribio (13) profiles as a plus defender at third and potentially an average defender if he returns to shortstop, with a simple left-handed swing and sneaky power, probably more a hitter for average and OBP overall. I don't think DSL stats are terribly meaningful for projecting future performance, but it's at least a positive to see a hitter walk nearly as often as he strikes out there, as Toribio did at 17, with a .423 OBP. Lefty Garrett Williams' (14) season was a disaster, as he tried to pitch through a blister problem early in the year and just never got "right" until his stint in the Arizona Fall League. He'll show above-average velocity and a slider that's at least a 65-grade pitch, but couldn't throw strikes in any role for Double-A Richmond. He finished the year in the bullpen and I expect that to be his spot going forward, where he might be death to left-handed hitters.
Jacob Gonzalez (15), son of D-backs executive Luis, was a big power prospect in high school but put the ball on the ground too often last year, so the Giants have been working with him to try to improve his launch angle so he can square up more pitches and drive the ball to the gaps. He's a below-average defender at third whose throwing is erratic and who doesn't have the footwork for the hot corner. Abiatal Avelino (16) was acquired in the trade for Andrew McCutchen. He has enough strength to hit for double-digit homer power, but his swing just puts the ball on the ground all the time, so he rarely strikes out but his bat has no value barring some kind of swing change. He can play the three skill positions in the infield well enough to be a utility infielder, and there's some non-zero chance he gets to a little more power in this era of swing optimization.
Aramis Garcia (17) is a decent backup catcher with some pop, but he won't hit enough or be good enough a receiver to play regularly. Fourth-rounder Blake Rivera (18), a junior college right-hander, was 94-97 mph last spring along with an above average breaking ball, working with a high-effort delivery that might point to the bullpen. Fifth rounder Keaton Winn (19) was also a junior college guy -- the Giants drafted both Winn and Rivera in 2017 and again in 2018 -- who was throwing up to 94 mph complemented by a plus slider that missed a ton of bats. Eighth-rounder Solomon Bates (20) has a high slot that gives him some deception, working with 90-92 mph velocity and an average breaking ball that has some depth thanks to the release point, although his fastball is flat and he's probably a pen guy, too, especially since it's hard to turn over a changeup from that arm slot.
Others of note: Chris Shaw has power but I don't think he sees the ball well enough to make sufficient contact, and he's a below-average defender at first. Sandro Fabian signed for $500,000 in 2014 and hasn't hit in two years in full-season ball, although he also shouldn't have been pushed to high-A last year after a 2017 when he drew 10 walks in 503 PA for low-A Augusta. He should go back to San Jose to repeat the level so that he's not just trying to stay afloat with another promotion; I doubt he figures it out, but there's enough bat speed and general athleticism here for him to end up an extra outfielder. Outfielder Diego Rincones hit .315/.357/.455 in the Northwest League last summer at age 19, but has a dead-pull approach with some back side collapse and -- like so many position player prospects in this system -- he doesn't walk. Hard-throwing right-hander Sam Coonrod blew out his elbow in 2017 and underwent Tommy John surgery, coming back late last year in relief as he finished his rehab. He could move quickly if the Giants just leave him in that role, with a plus fastball and potentially plus slider; he never had enough command or enough of a changeup to start.
2019 impact: The Giants might carry only one or two rookies on their Opening Day roster -- Garcia as the backup catcher, possibly Shaw in some sort of reserve role - - but over the course of 2019 they should have use for a number of rookie pitchers, including Anderson in their rotation and perhaps Beede or Williams in relief.
Sleeper: Luciano is the obvious choice here. If he goes to the AZL this summer and does what he's supposed to do, he'll be their new No. 1 prospect and an easy top- 100 guy.
The fallen: Beede was their first-round pick in 2014 out of Vanderbilt, and a first-rounder for Toronto in 2011 who didn't sign over a bonus dispute. He reached the majors last year only to struggle with command and control, after which he continued to struggle in the minors. He might get more opportunities this season on a bad Giants team, but his most likely path to success now is as a reliever.