We already ran down the top 100 prospects in baseball, so now it's time go deeper by division. Today we focus on the AL Central, starting with the Chicago White Sox.
To jump to the other teams, click here: Indians | Tigers | Royals | Twins
Division overviews: NL East | NL Central | NL West | AL East | AL West
Editor's note: Age is the player's age as of July 1, 2019. Players with experience in foreign major leagues such as Japan's NPB or Korea's KBO are ineligible for these rankings.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox system remains very top heavy, the product of some big trades and some strong hits in the last few drafts, but their depth is limited, especially in pitching, and they have just two prospects here whom they signed as international free agents -- one of whom signed in 2013.
1. Eloy Jimenez, OF (ranked No. 5)
2. Michael Kopech, RHP (ranked No. 20)
3. Dylan Cease, RHP (ranked No. 25)
4. Luis Robert, OF (ranked No. 54)
5. Dane Dunning, RHP (just missed)
6. Nick Madrigal, SS (just missed)
7. Micker Adolfo, OF
8. Luis Basabe, OF
9. Luis Gonzalez, OF
10. Blake Rutherford, OF
Non-top-100 prospects
Micker Adolfo was a tough omission from the main list because I like the player he is and how much progress he's made to get to this point from when he signed as a workout phenom with virtually no baseball skills. He has huge raw power, moves well for a guy his size and has gone from having no idea at the plate to showing real selectivity, to the point where I think he has a chance to be a regular even if he ends up at DH, probably a low-average slugger with OBP skills and a lot of strikeouts. He had his best season to date in 2018, but he couldn't play the field and eventually was shut down to have Tommy John surgery in August. The hope is that he'll be back in the outfield in May.
The White Sox acquired Luis Basabe in the Chris Sale trade, and they've made some minor tweaks to quiet his approach, minimizing the small hitch in his swing to keep his contact rates up. He's always had a good plan at the plate and kept his OBP up in Double-A last year, even when he was struggling with making quality contact. He's an above-average runner who should stay in center field and could end up a 15-homer/20-steal guy along with those OBP skills -- another guy who had a case for the top 100.
Luiz Gonzalez, the team's third-round pick in 2018, started in Low-A last year, as the team thought he was a little behind most college products. But his performance last year showed that he was more advanced than we realized, as he raked in low-A and high-A and finished fourth in the minors last year with 40 doubles. He has some sneaky power, probably worth 16-20 homers a year when he sees the majors, and above-average speed that hasn't translated into base-stealing yet. He plays center now, although he may be a better asset in right field, where he should have above-average to plus range; he already has a plus arm.
Blake Rutherford was the Yankees' first-round pick in 2016 as a premium high school hitter who was expected to hit for average and power, but he hasn't produced near expectations so far. He went to the White Sox in the David Robertson/Tommy Kahnle trade in July 2017. He makes plenty of contact but doesn't use his lower half well, so the ball seems to go nowhere off his bat -- it's noticeably quiet even when he squares something up -- and he hasn't hit lefties well at all. His swing path is good and he has a decent approach, but the White Sox have a challenge to try to unlock some of that power in his hips and legs.
Jake Burger (11) missed his first full pro season after a very unfortunate injury at the start of spring training when he ruptured an Achilles tendon; he should be back by June. He was the Sox's first-round pick in 2017, a bat-first prospect who was a work in progress at third base but made consistently hard contact in college with above-average power.
Catcher Zack Collins (12) has had one of the most bizarre pro careers of any recent first-rounder I can remember. He does a few things well but some more important things not very well at all, and so I can neither dismiss him nor think of him as more than an up-and-down bench guy. His career line in pro ball sits at .232/.379/.425; he's drawn 188 walks in the last two years, with 34 homers; he has a big hitch in his swing that has prevented him from hitting for average; and he can throw and calls a good game but is a below-average receiver.
Steele Walker (13), the White Sox's second-round pick in 2018, was banged up when he reported and didn't get on the field for five weeks after the draft, after which he spent about a month with low-A Kannapolis. He has a long history of hitting for contact and high averages with average-ish power, and is limited defensively to a corner, which puts more pressure on his bat.
First baseman Gavin Sheets (14) had a surprising year in high-A, hitting for very little power but making a lot of contact for a .293/.368/.407 line. He's big, strong and slow-footed, sometimes landing in the bucket at the plate. He struggled with changing speeds when I saw him, but he is built for more power than he's shown.
Right-hander Jimmy Lambert (15) took a step forward last year by moving from his two-seamer, which doesn't have the tailing or sinking action most two-seamers have, to a four-seamer, and he now works with a true four-pitch mix of average or slightly above-average pitches while maintaining above-average control. He misses bats by changing speeds, and both his slider and curveball can get some swings and misses, although his ceiling is limited and he will probably need another half-grade of fastball command to become a back-end starter.
Zack Burdi (16) came back from Tommy John surgery at the very end of the summer and made a few appearances in the Arizona Fall League, sitting mid-90s rather than the upper 90s, where he was before the surgery, although he also seemed to have better command. We'll see where his fastball sits this spring when he's further into his recovery -- a big part of his value was the power in his fastball and slider.
Right-hander Ian Hamilton (17) has a plus-fastball/plus-slider combination that should make him very tough on right-handed hitters, but his changeup is an afterthought and he's going to have to find another weapon for lefties. Tyler Johnson (18) could follow in Hamilton's footsteps as a righty-killer, but also lacks much of a changeup to get lefties out, although he still overpowered enough of them in A-ball last year to put up a strong overall line. Lefty Kodi Medeiros (19), acquired from Milwaukee for Joakim Soria in the summer, has to move to the bullpen, due to his low arm slot and high walk rates as a starter, but his fastball/slider combination could be devastating if he makes that switch. Jordan Stephens (20) might be a fifth starter thanks to an above-average curveball, but likely profiles better in the bullpen. Righty Konnor Pilkington (21) was a value draft pick in the third round who saw his velocity tumble over the spring, but had been in the low 90s with good command as a sophomore.
Others of note: Right-hander Spencer Adams reached Triple-A last year but stopped missing bats. He'll turn 23 this year, so it's not unthinkable that he'd find more than his 88-92 mph velocity, but he probably has to find another pitch instead. ... Fourth-rounder Lency Delgado really struggled in his pro debut, which is concerning because he turned 19 right after the draft and has work to do at the plate, where his hands are loose but his bat control isn't good. He's a shortstop now, but if you project based on his body, he looks like he'll end up at third base. ... Shortstop Laz Rivera had a .314/.361/.481 line last year between low-A and high-A as a 23-year-old, and that OBP is kind of misleading because he was hit by pitches 23 times, masking the fact that he drew 13 walks in 514 plate appearances. That walk rate of 2.5 percent was the 10th-worst among qualifying minor league hitters, putting him in the bottom 1 percent. And yet he's still kind of interesting because he can play the middle infield and puts the ball in play quite a bit, enough that I wouldn't rule out him turning into a 25th man on a roster some day.
2019 impact: Eloy should be their everyday right fielder this year. I think we'll see Cease at some point as well, although he's further behind and keeping him healthy is always a consideration given his history. Hamilton will likely start the year in the major league bullpen, and Medeiros and a healthy Burdi could appear this summer, too.
Sleeper: I was impressed by Gonzalez's athleticism when I saw him this year, and I think he has a little more power and speed than he's given credit for, perhaps because he's a college player or had some makeup questions out of the draft, neither of which should matter given his skill set. He just needs to be challenged somewhere appropriate to his age.
The fallen: Alec Hanson was a top-100 prospect a year ago, but was a disaster in 2018, walking 59 guys in 51 innings between high-A and Double-A, and that came after he missed the first two months with forearm soreness. Hansen's delivery has always been mechanical, but he seemed to have harnessed it in 2017, enough for his power arsenal to play and potentially start, but last year marked a huge step back for him, and I would not be surprised at all if he were still hurt.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians have a quietly strong system with a lot of position-player depth from Triple-A all the way down to rookie ball, with their Arizona League club by far the strongest complex-level team for prospect value last year, thanks to smart drafts and some big hits on the international market.
1. Triston McKenzie, RHP (ranked No. 23)
2. Nolan Jones, 3B (ranked No. 43)
3. Noah Naylor, C/3B (ranked No. 74)
4. Yu Chang, SS
5. Oscar Mercado, OF
6. Bobby Bradley, 1B
7. Brayan Rocchio, SS
8. Lenny Torres, RHP
9. Tyler Freeman, SS
10. George Valera, OF
Non-top-100 prospects
Yu Chang looks like a soft regular at shortstop right now; he can definitely play the position and may even end up a plus defender there. But he has something of a grooved path at the plate that he adopted in Double-A two seasons ago as he realized he could pull some fastballs, and that's probably not conducive to making him the hitter he needs to be. He doesn't go the other way well, so pitchers can go down and away with breaking stuff and he just pulls off. He's also blocked in Cleveland by a superstar in Francisco Lindor, and if he moves to the next most likely position, he's blocked by another superstar in Jose Ramirez, so maybe he's a trade piece.
I'm a big Oscar Mercado fan, and thought Cleveland did well to add him for two prospects (of value) in a trade last summer, as their system lacks any outfield depth near the majors. Since moving off short, he's become a plus defender in center and developed across the board as a hitter. Mercado walked more this year at the expense of some power, but the raw power and swing path for 20-plus homers are still there, and now it looks like his approach is good enough to get him there. My gut feeling is that next winter, he'll either be on the top 100 or will have played enough in the majors to make himself ineligible.
Bobby Bradley took a step back at the plate last year but has solidified himself as a regular at first base, with some scouts saying he could end up an above-average defender there because of his athleticism (which you wouldn't guess at first glance). He's a "three true outcomes" sort of guy who could get to 30 homers a year if he hits enough, but his .224/.308/.466 line between Double-A and Triple-A last year at age 22 was a surprise and a setback.
Brayan Rocchio was the best of the horde of prospects on Cleveland's Arizona League team, two of whom are already gone in trades. Rocchio is a shortstop and projects to stay there, playing the position well without flash, showing good hands and an above-average arm. He's a switch-hitter who can be a little handsy, but he has good hand-eye and is an above-average runner who is still learning how to steal bases. Opposing scouts were impressed by his instincts in the field and ability to read pitches before the hitters even had a chance to put balls in play. He'll probably play more second and third as he moves up to maintain flexibility, but in a system without Lindor, he'd be a no-doubt shortstop.
Lenny Torres was Cleveland's third pick, taken 41st overall in 2018, a smaller right-hander from upstate New York who dominated in high school with a 92-97 mph fastball, then went out over the summer and showed better control and more feel for his slider than he had in the spring. He's a bit farther away than most prep pitchers but also pitched the whole year at 17, turning 18 in mid-October.
Tyler Freeman was widely seen as a reach when Cleveland took him in the second round in 2017 (including by me), but he opened everyone's eyes in 2018 by hitting .352 to lead the NY-Penn League last summer at age 19, while also posting the lowest strikeout rate in the league at 7.3 percent. He doesn't walk and he doesn't have power, but he's improved enough that other teams are talking about him as a shortstop, and his bat-to-ball skill is at the far right end of the scale.
George Valera was Cleveland's big signing in 2017, landing a $1.3 million bonus, but broke a hamate bone and missed most of 2018 as a result, although he returned for instructs in the Dominican Republic and swung the bat well. It's still all projection, but the hope when he signed was that he would grow into an impact hitter who would hit for average and power while playing right field.
Luis Oviedo (11) is tall and still slight but has seen his fastball velocity creep up to the low to mid-90s, and he misses bats with the pitch, extending well out front and throwing a ton of strikes. He doesn't have a solid-average second pitch yet, although his slider improved last year and he has some feel for a changeup.
Chih-Wei Hu (12) has mostly worked as a starter so far, all in the Rays' system, with a five-pitch mix that features a straight change and a palmball, two pitches that serve the same purpose but look very different to hitters, along with a plus fastball and above-average slider. I'd still try to start him, but if Cleveland needs a multi-inning reliever, he's their best immediate candidate.
Ethan Hankins (13) was Cleveland's second pick, 35th overall, in last year's draft, after a spring ruined by a shoulder injury that cost him likely top-10 consideration, maybe top-five. Hankins has a tough delivery with a short stride and insufficient use of his lower half, but before the injury, he'd hit 97 regularly with a hammer curveball. After he returned, he dialed everything back, hitting 95 but sitting 90-93 and casting a few breaking balls in short starts. Cleveland shut him down for most of the summer to protect his arm, but he did throw a little at the end of the year. The hope is that he'll be ready to roll in March and will look like he did in the summer of 2017.
Zach Plesac (14) is a four-pitch starter who'll sit 92-93, touching 96, with a promising slider and good control. He signed in 2016 as a 12th-round pick, shortly after undergoing Tommy John surgery, making 2018 his first full, healthy season in three years, and in that time, he's also gained strength and looks durable enough to start. He looks like a potential fourth or fifth starter who could be more if any one of his pitches gains a half-grade. Dan is his uncle, if you were curious.
Daniel Johnson (15) came from Washington in the Yan Gomes trade, a college product whom the Nats slow-played because his skills weren't up to his tools. He was hampered by a hamate injury in 2018, and his trouble recognizing breaking balls was exposed by Double-A pitchers, which explains why he hit just .163/.250/.239 off lefties for Harrisburg. His tools are still well ahead of his production; he's a plus runner with plus raw power that doesn't quite play in games, with some feel to hit by using the whole field. His speed could make him a plus defender in a corner outfield spot given time and reps.
Ernie Clement (16) is your prototypical scrappy middle infielder, undersized, putting the ball in play a ton -- 35 strikeouts in 471 PA last year, with 41 walks -- without power. Scouts love how he plays, even though his tools are light, and though he played short exclusively in 2018, he can play second and is most likely to end up a utility infielder who can bounce between short, second and third.
Eighteen-year-old Carlos Vargas (17) also was on that loaded AZL squad, signing two years ago for $275,000, and already has above-average velocity even with projection remaining on his lanky frame. His slider is still behind and his fastball doesn't have great life, but he may start throwing in the upper 90s as he fills out. He did walk 24 in 34 innings last summer, and I heard it looked worse than the stat line would imply.
Eli Morgan (18) doesn't throw hard, topping out around 90, but his changeup is easily a plus pitch; he pronates it hard, like a screwball, and sells it well out of his hand, striking out more than a batter an inning in low-A and high-A last year, his first full year in pro ball. He's a strike-thrower with very good command for his age, working to the corners of the zone, and that changeup might just carry him to the majors as a fifth starter. Sam Hentges (19) is a big lefty who returned last year from Tommy John surgery, gets up to 94 with good carry, and can show two breaking balls, a curve and a slider-cutter that could get to average. His changeup is behind and he's still recovering his command from before the surgery. He could be a back-end starter. Nick Sandlin (20), the Indians' second-round pick in 2018, varies his arm slot but throws a lot from sidearm or below, and Cleveland pushed him in his first summer, putting him right in the bullpen (where he belongs) and sending him through four levels, where he walked just three batters in 25 innings with 36 strikeouts.
Others of note: Raynel Delgado slipped to the sixth round last year, but the prep shortstop, destined for second base in pro ball, has legit power, especially when he hits left-handed. He had a very solid debut in the AZL, where he showed some patience and hit well from both sides of the plate. ... Eric Haase is a strong-armed catcher with 60-65 power who struggled badly with contact in Triple-A last year, ending up with a .288 OBP, but could get a lot of playing time in Cleveland this year, especially if he shows a little more ability to put the ball in play. ... Aaron Civale looked like a potential fourth or fifth starter after 2017 but struggled with injuries last year and saw his stuff back up.
2019 impact: Haase could end up catching quite a bit for the big club this year. The Indians don't really have established outfielders right now, so there could be a chance for Mercado to play his way into a regular job -- and he might be their best option, if not now, maybe by June. They have starter depth but Hu is likely to be the first one recalled if they need an arm for more than a short relief role.
Sleeper: Rocchio's ranking here kind of establishes him as the player I think is most likely to leap into the top 100 in a year. Oviedo is the name on a lot of other teams' lips as someone they'd like to grab in a trade, although Cleveland knows what it has.
The fallen: Will Benson has been a fiasco in pro ball, as the former first-rounder still doesn't have a functional swing and shows poor instincts on defense. He can run and his body is all you could ask for, but his pitch recognition isn't there and he mistimes constantly on balls, to the point that you'll regularly see him foul pitches into the dugout behind him.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers' rebuild is making steady if slow progress, although the lack of major trade pieces on the big-league roster hasn't helped, and they haven't really developed a significant prospect from international free agency in many years.
1. Casey Mize, RHP (ranked No. 15)
2. Matt Manning, RHP (ranked No. 65)
3. Daz Cameron, OF (ranked No. 68)
4. Franklin Perez, RHP
5. Beau Burrows, RHP
6. Willi Castro, SS
7. Christin Stewart, OF
8. Isaac Paredes, SS
9. Parker Meadows, OF
10. Kyle Funkhouser, RHP
Non-top-100 prospects
Franklin Perez was part of the Justin Verlander trade, but missed most of 2018 with injuries, making seven starts in June and July and throwing 19 innings before he was shut down with shoulder inflammation. He has mid-rotation-starter upside if healthy, but shoulder injuries are way more concerning than elbow injuries, and he wasn't a finished product before the injury.
Beau Burrows has been very consistent for the last three years, working with an above-average fastball that sinks but that hitters still put in the air more than on the ground, an inconsistent curveball that will show plus, a fringy changeup and now a cutter/slider that he uses occasionally. It's all about a half-grade away from making him a solid league-average starter, including his command and control. He misses bats, just not enough, walks a few too many guys and gives up a few more line drives and homers than you'd like, but nothing is really so bad that you think he can't figure it out and stay a starter. I do really like how he pitches, both in terms of his plan and his demeanor on the field.
Willi Castro, part of the trade for Leonys Martin, is a high-IQ player from a baseball family who was having a disappointing year until he got to the Detroit organization, at which point he went on a tear for Double-A Erie and ended up with a week in Toledo as his reward. He can stay at short and be at least solid-average, with really soft hands and good reads. His swing and approach at the plate are sound, but he has always needed to get stronger. He's another guy I've liked for less tangible reasons, someone I think will hit enough to become a soft regular, if not more.
Christin Stewart will probably be Detroit's left fielder this year and should hit 20-plus homers with some walks and bad defense, offering enough overall value to be the Tigers' regular there for the next three years. Isaac Paredes can really hit and probably will settle in at third base, although he has an older body for a 20-year-old and I don't think he has a ton of growth remaining. He also has everyday regular upside. The Tigers effectively pinned their entire draft on Mize and Parker Meadows, for whom they went well over slot; the younger brother of Tampa Bay outfielder Austin Meadows doesn't have the same power potential but is looser and more athletic. He also has a big hitch in his swing that had many people questioning his future hit tool. He's a certain center fielder, and missed time this summer with a hamstring injury.
Kyle Funkhouser still shows above-average or better stuff but doesn't miss enough bats, and he lost time last year to a fractured foot. He'll turn 25 in March and should be ready to compete for a major league job by now, although I don't think his command or control are at that level yet.
Logan Shore (11), who came over from Oakland as the player to be named for Mike Fiers, is a plus-command guy with an average fastball and plus changeup, a potential fourth starter or maybe more if he stays healthy -- he has battled injuries the last two years, including oblique strains. Shortstop Sergio Alcantara (12) is the best prospect the Tigers received in the J.D. Martinez deal, which isn't saying a whole lot, but he can play the heck out of short, has a cannon of an arm and has a good swing. He just has no strength to drive the ball, with 22 extra-base hits in nearly 500 PA last year. Derek Hill (13) began last year with a different batting stance and it didn't work, and by the time he started to restore his old stance, it was too late in the year to matter. He's still a premium defender in center and plus runner who has good instincts on all sides, but he hasn't hit, and when he does hit, he doesn't do damage. He'll play at 23 this year, young enough to still gain strength and stick with a swing, but time is starting to run out for the former first-rounder.
Jake Rogers (14) didn't hit at all last year -- .219/.305/.412 in Erie, then .167/.231/.271 in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League -- and doesn't really project to hit other than some mistake power. He can catch, though, well enough that he might play a long time in the majors as a backup or as a bad team's starter who might flip 15 homers with an OBP well under .300.
Right-hander Alex Faedo (15) was Detroit's first-round pick in 2017, but his full-season debut was disappointing. Every scout I asked who saw him wrote him up as a reliever. Faedo pitches at 90-92 and shows an above-average to plus slider, but he was extremely homer-prone in Double-A because his fastball is ordinary; he gave up 15 homers in 60 innings, 12 of them to right-handed batters.
Shortstop Wenceel Perez (16) tore up the Gulf Coast League as an 18-year-old and ended up with two promotions, to the short-season NY-Penn League and later the full-season Midwest League, where he continued to put the ball in play and showed above-average speed. He's a switch-hitter with quick hands and good barrel control. I don't think he's going to be very patient now, but he's not a hacker, just someone who can put a lot of pitches in play and will have to learn which pitches to take over time.
Daniel Woodrow (17) is yet another Tigers prospect who has to get stronger, but he can do some things even now to help a club -- he's a 65 runner, takes solid at-bats and has good bat control, with the speed to play all over the outfield. If he had average power, he'd be a regular.
The Tigers claimed Dustin Peterson (18) on waivers in September, and the 24-year-old could end up spending a chunk of 2019 in Detroit. He has always had a good feel to hit, although his career has included a lot of empty batting averages. He rarely strikes out, doesn't walk and has never hit more than 12 homers in a season. He can play left or right, better in left but with the arm for both. Zach Houston (19) has some funk in his delivery, giving him deception for his fastball to play up. He missed a ton of bats between Double- and Triple-A last year and positioned himself for a major league relief job this year. Gregory Soto (20) seems to have been on these lists forever, and he regressed in 2018, working with average velocity, walking 70 guys in 113 innings, with only his curveball standing out as an above-average pitch. I think it's past time for him to go to the bullpen.
Others of note: Brock Deatherage, beyond having a name that sounds like a board game I'd play, was one of the better senior signs in this year's draft class, with hand strength that produced some hard contact and doubles power. He's a corner outfielder and probably just a bench piece, but I wouldn't be surprised if he tore up A-ball this year. ... Dawel Lugo, also part of the Martinez trade, reached the majors last year and might get a few years as a utility infielder, but he's not a very good defender and walks once every super blood wolf moon. ... Third-rounder Kody Clemens, son of Roger and brother of Kacy, didn't hit well for two years at Texas, then suddenly went off this last spring, showing huge power and more patience. His pro debut was solid and he's settled in at second base, but let's see if he can do it for more than one calendar year.
2019 impact: Stewart should be their everyday left fielder. Peterson could make the club as a corner utility guy. Houston should make the team in the bullpen. Funkhouser and Burrows are close enough that either might get a few starts. Cameron should be there by year-end and Manning could do the same given how quickly he improved last season.
Sleeper: Perez, who might end up at second rather than short but whose bat is really promising in a system that has a lot of guys who have good swings but lack present strength.
The fallen: I've ranked Hill highly here and there because he can play center, runs plus and has a good swing, but at some point, a player just has to perform, and he hasn't done so, with injuries no longer an adequate explanation for his struggles.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals had a slew of extra picks in the 2018 draft and went hard after college players who had high floors and were very likely to provide major league value, after which one of those "safe" players turned into a high-ceiling guy. This helped a system that had a strong teenage prospect crop in low-A, but was mostly barren at the upper levels after several years of trades and low draft picks.
1. Daniel Lynch, LHP (ranked No. 53)
2. Khalil Lee, OF (ranked No. 60)
3. Nicky Lopez, SS/2B
4. Seuly Matias, OF
5. Jackson Kowar, RHP
6. Brady Singer, RHP
7. Kyle Isbel, OF
8. Nick Pratto, 1B
9. MJ Melendez, C
10. Carlos Hernandez, RHP
Non-top-100 prospects
Nicky Lopez quietly had a superb season last year between Double- and Triple-A, hitting .308/.382/.417 with more walks than strikeouts, playing mostly shortstop but getting increased reps at second as well. He's probably a bit overmatched at short, but looks like he could become plus defensively at second, and his approach at the plate will get him on base and let him tap into just a little more power. He seems like a solid regular who might end up a grade-55 overall player.
Seuly Matias is a real all-or-nothing prospect -- he has 80 raw power, approaching Joey Gallo territory, but chases way too often early in the count, so he falls behind and ends up striking out frequently. Last year, he had 376 plate appearances, struck out 131 times (35 percent) and hit 31 homers. No MLB player with at least 200 PA had a higher rate of homers per PA than Matias just did in low-A as a 19-year-old, coming into the season with fewer than 500 pro plate appearances. He's an above-average runner with a cannon, probably an average runner when he fills out but more than capable of playing right field. It's all about the bat -- he rarely walks and his present strikeout rate is truly unsustainable, but there is some level below this where his contact rate would be good enough that he can be Gallo, or maybe more.
Jackson Kowar looks the part of a mid-rotation starter when he walks to the mound and will show an above-average fastball and knockout changeup. His arm action isn't pretty, and he needs to throw his breaking ball harder, with more conviction, rather than casting it so it becomes a below-average pitch. He was the No. 2 starter for Florida this spring while Brady Singer was their No. 1 starter. Singer, who was a supplemental-round pick out of high school but didn't sign with the Blue Jays, had a so-so spring, with his velocity fluctuating in the 90-95 range. He'll show a sharp slider that's very tough on right-handers, especially coming from his low three-quarters slot, but he has no real weapon to get lefties out, and his arm action is also kind of scary for a potential starter. He missed the summer with a hamstring injury.
Kyle Isbel should have gone on Day 1 of the 2018 draft but somehow slipped to the third round, even though he's a classic power/speed outfield type who performed well at UNLV. He's in center now but probably settles in a corner. There's a little swing-and-miss concern with the way he over-rotates at the plate, but he's otherwise an advanced hitter and showed it by mashing in the Pioneer League and spending more than a month in the full-season Sally League, performing well for a guy straight out of college.
Nick Pratto, the Royals' first-round pick in 2017, struck out at a surprising rate last year; he was drafted as a prep bat with an advanced hit tool that the Royals hoped would lead to future average power or more. Scouts did like his approach last year, especially his willingness to work the count, even if the results of those at-bats weren't ideal. Lexington is good for left-handed power, which likely helped, although he's showing above-average raw power in BP. He's become a solid glove at first as well, so there are the elements of a future regular here depending on how his hitting progresses.
MJ Melendez played some of the year with a bruised thumb, which couldn't have helped his receiving, and received poor grades on that from scouts and other teams' framing metrics. He's an athletic and active catcher, blocking well, with at least a 65 arm, although he can still pop up to throw too soon. At the plate, he's more power than contact, with a long swing that has obvious holes, and struck out in 30 percent of his plate appearances last year.
The Royals signed Carlos Hernandez as a 19-year-old, far older than the age at which most players from Venezuela sign, but he's thrown very well so far when he's been healthy, working 92-98 with an inconsistent breaking ball and future-average changeup. His curveball will show good shape but doesn't have great spin to it. He's a strike-thrower and has shown good command for someone without a ton of pitching experience. He's missed time the last two years with minor arm soreness.
Stanford lefty Kris Bubic (11) was the Royals' fourth pick in 2018, another pick in the comp round after Lynch and Kowar. Bubic is a command lefty with an above-average to plus changeup and a chance for an above-average breaking ball, working with 90-92 but generally throwing strikes. He has some fourth-starter upside.
The Royals signed Yefri Del Rosario (12) after his deal with Atlanta was voided as part of the penalties handed down by the commissioner's office for rules violations, and he improved over the course of 2018, showing better velocity and a breaking ball that was tighter and that he was better able to throw for strikes. He's up to 97, sitting more 93-94, with a fast arm and good size to start, although his arm stroke isn't very fluid. He finished strongly, with just three earned runs allowed in 36 innings in August.
Janser Lara (13) has an electric arm, sitting 95-96 and still showing some projection to gain more velocity, with a promising curveball that he tends to overthrow. He has a reliever's approach on the mound and has had minor arm troubles that have limited his experience. The Royals added Yohanse Morel (14) in the Kelvin Herrera trade and brought Morel to the U.S. from the Dominican Summer League, and he took off in the Arizona League, working low-to-mid-90s with a slider and hard changeup. He's about 6 feet, with a super-quick arm and short stride; he doesn't use his lower half enough and overthrows the slider, but he's also just 18 and already has a few positives on his résumé with room to grow.
Jonathan Bowlan (15) was the Royals' second-round pick in 2018 out of the University of Memphis, a mountain of a man with a huge fastball that has good sink, but he was awful this summer, apparently out of gas after Memphis worked him hard in the spring. His slider isn't consistent yet, but there could be a strong two-pitch mix here for a relief role.
Austin Cox (16) has been up to 96 and attacks hitters relentlessly with the fastball, with a fringy slider as his second pitch. The Royals' fifth-round pick this year worked as a starter in short-season but projects as a reliever.
Third baseman Emmanuel Rivera (17) is a solid defender who rarely swings and misses -- or walks. He has average raw power that he doesn't get to in games because of that approach, putting too many balls on the ground when he should look more for a pitch to drive. Catcher Sebastian Rivero (18) is a premium defender across the board -- pitchers apparently love throwing to him -- but so far, his bat has been light outside of a solid contact rate. Lefty Daniel Tillo (19) had a down year, but throws a strange assortment of pitches -- I believe he has two changeups, one of which has screwball action at a velocity near that of his fastball -- all from the same arm slot and hand position. Brewer Hicklen (20) was too old for Lexington last year but is a plus runner with a little pop, although his 17 homers were helped by Lexington's ballpark. He could end up a fourth outfielder with his speed and defensive versatility.
2019 impact: The Royals will give some young players opportunities in 2019, but they won't be rookies; Lopez is the most ready of their prospects but is blocked by Adalberto Mondesi, who deserves another chance to win the shortstop job, and 30-year-old Whit Merrifield, whom the Royals just signed to an extension. If Lynch shows up in March looking the way he did in August, he could end the year in the big leagues.
Sleeper: Isbel wasn't as hyped as the two Florida arms, and his summer was overshadowed by Daniel Lynch deciding to make every team that passed on him (which they almost all did) look bad for doing so, but Isbel's skill set seems so close to that of an above-average regular that maybe all he has to do is prove it this year in high-A Wilmington.
The fallen: The Royals put Josh Staumont in the bullpen last year and he missed more bats but also walked more guys, so your guess on whether he has any future in the majors is as good as mine. The former second-round pick has a plus fastball and changeup, and a good delivery that doesn't line up with his career of wildness. And Kyle Zimmer is back and once again supposedly healthy; I've seen that guy pitch twice, and I would have put grades of 6 or better on three different pitches, but he has had one injury after another since college.
Minnesota Twins
My No. 4 overall system put two guys near the top of my 100, two guys on the just missed list and has easily a half-dozen or more players who seem like they could be a year away from a big breakout. They've added that talent from every angle too -- drafts, international signings and trades, even smaller deals that added multiple prospects like the Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly trades.
1. Royce Lewis, SS (ranked No. 9)
2. Alex Kirilloff, OF (ranked No. 11)
3. Jordan Balazovic, RHP (just missed)
4. Brusdar Graterol, RHP (just missed)
5. Akil Baddoo, OF
6. Blayne Enlow, RHP
7. Trevor Larnach, OF
8. Jose Miranda, IF
9. Edwar Colina, RHP
10. Gilberto Celestino, OF
Non-top-100 prospects
Akil Baddoo is a 60 defender in center with plus speed, showing better reads when stealing bases last year, and he's now posted strong walk rates in three different stops since he signed in 2016. He'll run deep counts, although he can expand the zone too much, and has shown sneaky power that might get him to 12-15 homers in the majors, although one scout commented that his power might get him into trouble if he tries to hit for more pop rather than focusing on putting more balls in play. There's some volatility here but he looks like an average regular who might have an All-Star season or two.
The Twins took Blayne Enlow in the third round in 2017, going well over slot to get him, betting on his athleticism and projection, the latter of which is already starting to bear fruit. He was 92-95 last year with above-average life and a potentially plus slider, with big spin on both pitches, and a delivery that he can repeat while also gaining some deception from it.
Trevor Larnach was the Twins' first-round pick last year after a big season at Oregon State, an exit-velocity guy who is learning to pull the ball more after spending much of the spring going the other way. He's a bat-first guy, probably a left fielder in the long run, but the hope is that he's an average-walks-homers type who can hit in the middle of a lineup. He's not very athletic or particularly quick-twitch, so there was also some question about how he'd hit against better pitching, as the pitching in the Pac-12 last year was unusually bad.
Jose Miranda projects to end up with a plus hit tool, showing excellent bat-to-ball skills last year with increasing power thanks to a simple, pretty right-handed swing. He's played second, third and a little short, with third base, where he could end up a 55 or 60 defender, by far his best position. His combination of low strikeouts (11 percent) with solid power (.153 ISO) at age 20 is very promising.
The Twins got Edwar Colina on a new program during the season, and he turned a sharp corner midyear, looking like a different guy in the second half, doing enough to earn a bump up to high-A and start for Fort Myers in the deciding game of the Florida State League championship series. After a brutal outing on July 4, Colina had thrown 54 innings, walked 38, struck out 41 and thrown just 56 percent of his pitches for strikes; from that point on, he threw 55 innings, walked 15, struck out 65 and threw 65 percent of his pitches for strikes. He's always had a good arm, but he's repeating better and now using his 82-86 mph slider as an out pitch against left- and right-handed batters.
Gilberto Celestino is a plus to plus-plus defender in center with a good eye at the plate and untapped strength left in his body, all reasons the Astros gave him $2.5 million as an amateur in 2015, and making it surprising that they'd deal him for Ryan Pressly this past summer. He's a bit undersized and has only hit for average so far, but he rarely strikes out. He takes good at-bats and earns raves for his aptitude. He'll play at 20 for all of 2019 and likely start in low-A.
The Twins challenged Brent Rooker (11) last year with an assignment to Double-A in his first full year in the pros, but it made sense given that Rooker was 23 before the season started. Rooker reworked his swing before his redshirt junior year in college and really drives the ball well for power, especially out to left or left-center, despite just fair bat speed. He can get a little long to the ball because his swing is so geared to launch it, but he'll get to enough to slug .450-.500 with a low average and a moderate OBP. He's a 40 defender in left who'd be better suited to first base.
Ryan Jeffers (12), the team's third-round pick out of UNC-Wilmington, is an offensive catcher who had a tremendous pro debut, hitting .422/.543/.578 in a month in short-season Elizabethton right out of the draft, then hitting .288/.361/.446 in low-A Cedar Rapids in 36 more games, all after a full spring behind the dish before the draft. It looks like he can really hit and can turn on good velocity, so the bigger question is whether he can catch, which remains up in the air, although he's good at the cerebral aspects of the job (and is just two semesters from completing his degree in physics).
After missing 2016 and much of 2017 after elbow surgery, lefty Jovani Moran (13) had his healthiest season yet last year. He worked in long relief with a low-90s fastball with good carry and a wipeout changeup, lacking an average breaking pitch (resulting in a reverse platoon split in 2018). He has 152 strikeouts in 100 ⅔ innings since he came back from the surgery, and he probably should get at least one year to start to see if he can keep missing bats like this.
Nick Gordon (14) was totally overmatched in Triple-A last year, not just failing to hit but failing to even make quality contact, hitting .212/.262/.283 after a late-May promotion from Chattanooga. If anything, he seemed to wear down further as the season progressed. He's always been small, but his total lack of strength was a surprise. Because he's probably going to end up at second base, he has to not just hit but hit well to regain any prospect status.
Catcher Ben Rortvedt (15), the Twins' second-round pick in 2016 out of a Wisconsin high school, had his first positive performance since signing, still not producing power but showing better batted-ball characteristics than his .262/.331/.379 line would imply. He continues to receive well and throws out runners at a very high clip (36 percent last year). Jhoan Duran (16) throws a hybrid splitter-sinker that is a wipeout pitch, 91-95 with crazy diving movement out of the zone. After the Twins acquired him in the Escobar trade, they had him use the pitch even more, with better results in a half-dozen starts for Cedar Rapids. He's starting for now, although few pitchers remain starters while so reliant on one pitch. I can think of a few one-pitch relievers who did all right, though. Wander Javier (17) had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder in mid-April and missed the entire season. Javier is expected to be ready for spring training, although that surgery could affect his arm and may push him to second base. Before the injury, he'd shown good feel to hit, but with a crude approach. His swing could get handsy and was more geared toward putting the ball in play than to driving anything, although his body should allow for more power.
Australian lefty Lewis Thorpe (18) might be a fifth starter, going up to 93 with a four-pitch mix, tougher on lefties, with some deception but not enough to keep him from becoming homer-prone even in the high minors. He could be a 180-inning starter who rarely walks guys but gives up 30 bombs. Right-hander Tyler Wells (19) shed more than 20 pounds last offseason and produced his best year yet, working with above-average control of four pitches, including a solid-average fastball up to 93 and an above-average curveball. He's a fly-ball guy but gets a lot of popups and weak contact, which may allow him to succeed with that profile. Luis Arraez (20) is a small, slap-hitting infielder, capable at third or second with quick hands on transfers, showing no power but with solid contact rates up through Double-A so far. He could be an above-average utility player who can handle shortstop on an emergency basis and fill in as a corner outfielder, helped because he bats left-handed.
Others of note: Stephen Gonsalves saw his stuff back up last year and ended up walking more batters than ever as he worked away from contact. He was always working with a thin margin because he has no average breaking ball, succeeding with deception on what was an average fastball and a plus changeup. ... Jorge Alcala, acquired with Celestino in the Pressly deal, is a big arm-strength guy who's been up to 98 but is average or worse everywhere else, and he was shut down right after the trade with shoulder soreness. ... Luke Raley, acquired from the Dodgers in the Brian Dozier deal, has above-average power but some holes in his swing. He's capable of playing either outfield corner, but he's probably not getting on base enough to be a regular. ... The Twins signed Yunior Severino after Atlanta's deal with him was voided last fall, and he had a solid season in Elizabethton at 18 but showed he still has work to do on his approach at the plate and his defense at second base. ... Outfielder Lamonte Wade could be someone's fourth outfielder this year with a little speed and some history of contact and walks, although he doesn't have much power and I don't think he'll hit for enough average to be a regular. ... Brazilian outfielder Gabriel Maciel, acquired in the Eduardo Escobar trade, is a plus runner who has shown patience at the plate, but who needs to improve his acumen on the bases and in the outfield. He also needs to add some strength to ensure he can continue to get on base against better pitching.
2019 impact: Catcher Willians Astudillo is old for prospect status, having turned 27 in October, but he's still a rookie, and he can hit enough to garner a fair amount of playing time this year as a backup catcher/DH for the Twins. They have rookie-eligible, sixth-starter types like Kohl Stewart and Zach Littell who might see time in the rotation. Gordon is the closest of players on the top 20, but he has to hit in Triple-A first, and even then, there isn't a clear place for him to play in Minnesota.
Sleeper: I like a lot of these guys as candidates to make big jumps, but Miranda stands out for his approach and potential for plus defense at third.
The fallen: As strong as this system is, the Twins had a number of high-profile prospects stall or flop in 2018. Gordon and Gonsalves took huge steps backward. Second baseman Travis Blankenhorn didn't hit at all in the Florida State League, with a .231/.299/.387 line that probably kills his prospect status if you believe he's going to end up in left field. First baseman Lewin Diaz showed badly in the Florida State League last year before breaking his thumb in July, hitting for next to no power and drawing just nine walks in more than 300 PA. Former top-10 overall pick Tyler Jay failed to miss many bats even in relief in Double-A.