We already ran down the top 100 prospects in baseball, so now it's time go deeper by division. Today it's the AL West, starting with the Houston Astros.
To jump to the other teams, click here: Angels | Athletics | Mariners | Rangers
Division overviews: NL East | NL Central | NL West | AL East | AL Central
Editor's note: Age is the player's age as of July 1, 2019. Players with experience in foreign major leagues such as Japan's NPB or Korea's KBO are ineligible for these rankings.
Houston Astros
You would think the Astros' system would be bad by now -- they won a World Series, made the playoffs three times in four years, traded prospects for Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole and Ken Giles and Ryan Pressly -- but it's not, as they're still finding value later in the draft and seeing some international signings from several years ago start to hit the prospect radar.
1. Forrest Whitley, RHP (ranked No. 4)
2. Kyle Tucker, OF (ranked No. 17)
3. Corbin Martin, RHP (ranked No. 48)
4. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP (ranked No. 67)
5. Josh James, RHP (ranked No. 70)
6. Cionel Perez, LHP
7. Seth Beer, OF
8. Yordan Alvarez, 1B/OF
9. Luis Santana, 2B
10. Freudis Nova, SS
Cionel Perez gets the absolute most out of his small frame, with outstanding mechanics that allow him to sit 95-96 deep into starts with a slider that can get flat while sometimes showing enough tilt to be an above-average pitch. The Cuban lefty works with three pitches, including an above-average changeup, so he has the stuff to start, yet his size and some rumored elbow trouble from before the Astros finalized his deal have created lingering doubts that he could hold up in a rotation, and he's only thrown 178 innings in the last two years.
Seth Beer is listed here as an outfielder, but he's more likely to end up a DH, demonstrating literal fall-down range in the ACC tournament last spring. The good news is he can hit, gets on base a lot (a combination of true selectivity and having pitchers pitch around him some in a weak Clemson lineup) and has above-average power. Yordan Alvarez isn't all that different, also big-bodied, lumbering in the outfield, below average at first base, with a low motor and not much athleticism or youthfulness to his movements, but he has 70 raw power and has posted solid contact rates (despite fringy bat speed) through Triple-A. He's a soft regular for me, while Beer has a chance to be above average if he carries his college performance into pro ball.
Luis Santana just came over in a deal with the Mets for J.D. Davis, moving from one top 10 to another. He's small (5-foot-8) but strong for his size with exceptional zone control and the wrist strength to make solid contact against good pitching. He's second base only and probably not going to hit for any power, but there's a chance he hits his way to everyday status. Freudis Nova signed in July 2016 for $1.2 million, more for his bat than his glove. He's probably going to end up at second or third, but shows above-average game power now and could grow into an average hit/plus power package.
Right-hander Manny Ramirez (11) sits 95 mph, running up to 97-98, with a high-spin, power curveball, but is still short of average control. His arm is very quick and he's a little undersized, so he has some reliever risk, but that fastball/breaking ball combo gives up big upside if he can start. Outfielder Alex McKenna (12) was their fourth-round pick last year, a former high school quarterback who's very athletic with plus raw power, an above-average to plus arm and at least average running speed. He didn't show the power at Cal Poly, where coaches emphasized putting the ball in play, but scouts saw it in BP. With all the swing optimization going on around baseball, and the Astros among the leaders in utilizing such data, McKenna seems like a good candidate to take off in pro ball.
Lefty Framber Valdez (13) has big stuff, with a plus fastball with life, a grade-70 curveball with high spin and a changeup with two-seam action to it, an arsenal that would seem to make him an elite prospect. He doesn't have the command or control to be that guy, perhaps because his arm action is so short that it's tough to repeat, so he seems like a good multi-inning reliever candidate or maybe a twice-through-the-order starter at the back of a rotation. Right-hander Jayson Schroeder (14) was the Astros' second-round pick in 2018, was up to 94-95 in the spring, reportedly up to 97 once or twice, with a slider and curve that are both unfinished. He's shown he can spin the ball and the Astros like his delivery and arm action. He's already big and physical, so any projection here comes from repetitions, as he's a northwest kid who hasn't pitched a ton.
Shortstop Jonathan Arauz (15) came over with Ken Giles from the Phillies and fell off the map a bit after a positive drug test for a banned stimulant and some mediocre performances, then hit .299/.392/.471 in the first half of 2018 as a 19-year-old in low-A. The Astros promoted him to high-A, where he somehow managed to lose half his BABIP, going from .350 in low-A to .180 in high-A. I find it hard to believe he forgot how to hit it where they ain't, although I do believe he needs to add strength to continue to hit better pitching. His hands are good, he stays back on the ball, can switch-hit and should either be an average shortstop or above-average second baseman, as long as his body keeps getting stronger. Right-hander Bryan Abreu (16) saw his velocity tick up last year to 94-97 and he has a plus curveball with a huge spin rate. He struck out 42 percent of batters he faced last year, advancing out of short-season leagues for the first time, and ended up on the Astros' 40-man roster this winter.
Jairo Solis (17) saw his velocity improve by 5-7 mph from the start of 2017 to the start of 2018, but then blew out his elbow, had Tommy John surgery and will miss all of 2019. He does have huge upside given his velocity and arm speed, but he was also a long way from a finished product when he got hurt. Right-hander Rogelio Armenteros (18) should get a crack at someone's fifth starter job. He's succeeded up through Triple-A, even in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, with a plus changeup, barely-average fastball, command and deception. The Astros may not have a job for him, but he'd be the Orioles' third starter.
Ronnie Dawson (19) dropped some weight last year and gained running speed as a result, enough that he might be playable in center and should be above-average in left, with plus power and probably too much swing-and-miss to make him a regular. Tyler Ivey (20) is 92-95 with a classic curveball and some riding life to his four-seamer. He had a solid year at both A-ball levels in 2018, working mostly as a starter, but his delivery is herky-jerk and tough to repeat, so he's probably a reliever in the long run.
Others of note: Deury Carrasco has an 80 arm and great actions at short, with some contact skills at the plate, but is otherwise still a question mark on offense. ... Outfielder Myles Straw is a borderline 80 runner with absolutely no power, putting the ball in play and running like hell, which would have made him a leadoff guy and maybe a star in 1985 but right now makes him a bench piece at best and maybe Terrance Gore at worst. ... Catcher Garrett Stubbs bounced back from a dismal 2017 to hit for average with some doubles power in the PCL last year, although he's so small for a catcher that scouts doubt he can hold up there as a regular. ... The same trade that brought in Santana landed the Astros outfielder Ross Adolph, the Mets' 12th-round pick from last year, a plus runner with some power and no truly below-average tools who hit better than expected in his short-season debut.
2019 impact: James might be in the rotation to start the year and either way probably spends most of 2019 with Houston. Whitley is ready, although his workload may be limited after his curtailed 2018 season. Tucker also is ready, but the Astros have three outfielders, in name at least, with only the DH spot up for grabs right now. Valdez and Perez could end up starters in the early part of the year if there's a need, while by midyear Martin could march his way into Houston.
Sleeper: McKenna seems like he might be ready to jump now that he's in a system that will encourage him to tap into that raw power rather than just try to put the ball in play.
The fallen: The Astros took TCU reliever Riley Ferrell in the third round in 2015, thinking (as most teams did, I believe) that he was risky but had enough stuff at that moment to get to the majors quickly in a short relief role. He missed most of 2016 with injuries, and his control declined as he moved up to Double-A and then Triple-A. The Astros left him off their 40-man roster this winter and lost him to the Marlins in the Rule 5 draft.
Los Angeles Angels
The worst system in baseball a few years ago is now in the top 10 and still very much on the upswing, with a ton of teenage talent acquired in the draft and especially on the international front, where they've been one of the first teams to be aggressive in the new baseball haven of the Bahamas.
1. Jordon Adell, OF (ranked No. 8)
2. Brandon Marsh, OF (ranked No. 73)
3. Griffin Canning, RHP (ranked No. 86)
4. Jordyn Adams, OF
5. Jahmai Jones, 2B
6. Luis Rengifo, IF
7. Jose Suarez, LHP
8. Chris Rodriguez, RHP
9. Jeremiah Jackson, SS
10. D'Shawn Knowles, OF
Jordyn Adams was the Angels' first-round pick, a high school wide receiver and center fielder who touches 80 speed and has a clean swing with a short path to the ball and explosive hands. He needs reps but should be a plus defender in center given some time and his pure speed. His season ended early due to a collision that left him with a broken jaw. He has top-20 overall prospect upside, but hasn't played as much as the typical high school prospect because football was always his focus. Jahmai Jones has been on my top 100 before and may be again at some point, although he's going to have to show he can make quality contact in Double-A the way he did in 2017 against lower-level pitching. The good news is that his transition to second base has gone better than expected -- he's adequate there, at least, and I think he'll get to solid-average. Jones has never hit more than 14 homers in a pro season; there's more raw power in there, but to tap into it, he's going to have to get the ball in the air more.
Luis Rengifo seemed like a throw-in when the Angels traded C.J. Cron to the Rays, but he's turned into a legitimate prospect, certainly a top-150 guy in the majors, a 55 defender at short and maybe a 60 at second base who has shown exceptional bat-to-ball skills and plus speed, stealing at a 78 percent clip before he got to Triple-A. Shortstop in Anaheim is locked down, but second base is open, and Rengifo could hit his way into that job in short order. Jose Suarez sits solid-average with his fastball, but hides the ball very well in his delivery and has an out-pitch changeup, just needing a clear breaking ball to round out a three-pitch mix. He can spin the curveball at times, but it's not consistent, and his hand position may lend itself more toward a slider. He has third-starter potential with a better breaking pitch, more fourth-starter/league-average ceiling without it.
Chris Rodriguez missed all of 2018 with a stress reaction in his back that lingered, but came out of 2017 on my top 100 due to his rapid growth as a pitcher and No. 2-3 starter upside. We'll see where his stuff is and how his back responds to pitching again in March. Jeremiah Jackson was the team's second-round pick in 2018, a first-round talent from Alabama with the potential for above-average defense, 60 speed and a future above-average hit tool, with a solid right-handed swing that should produce line drives and some doubles power. D'Shawn Knowles hails from the Bahamas, the new hot spot for amateur talent on the international front. He's a switch-hitter and plus runner who fields center field well right now and projects to hit for average with some on-base skills but no power. He did strike out 29 percent of the time last year, but was only 17 playing pro ball for the first time.
Michael Hermosillo (11) got a well-deserved cup of coffee in the majors last year and should be the Angels' reserve outfielder, a little-bit-of-everything guy who takes good at-bats, shows pull-side power and runs above-average. He accelerates his hands so quickly that it seems like there might be more power and just harder contact in there at some point, but even now, since he can play all three outfield spots, he can help the Angels immediately. Patrick Sandoval (12) came over from the Astros for Martin Maldonado, bringing elite spin rates across three pitches as well as a plus changeup. His fastball velocity isn't special, but it has spin and riding life, and he throws a ton of strikes. The Astros seemed to question his durability and whether this stuff would still play at higher levels, but for the Angels to get him for a backup catcher was a no-brainer.
The Angels signed Kevin Maitan (13) last fall after the commissioner's office declared him and other Atlanta signees free agents, taking in a $2.2 million bonus that was a bet he'd get back into the shape he'd shown as an amateur that made him such a top prospect. The early returns aren't great, as he hit just .248/.306/.397 in short-season Orem at age 18, showing power and some modest improvements in his approach at the plate, but his body is still very thick and he's going to have to slim down to have a chance to stay at third base. He's a switch-hitter, with a better swing right-handed, although his platoon split went the other way last summer. Shortstop Livan Soto (14) came with Maitan, on a separate deal but part of the raft of players whose deals with Atlanta were voided, and had a better-than-expected summer in Orem, showing exceptional plate discipline and high contact rates while playing above-average defense. He was the sixth-toughest batter to strike out in the Pioneer League despite turning 18 a week after their season started.
Jose Soriano (15) is sitting at 94 mph, touching 98, with big spin on his curveball, a pitch that projects as plus, and a changeup that is at least progressing, albeit not yet average. He walked 35 guys in 46⅓ innings, 18 percent of batters faced, as a 19-year-old in low-A, so it's all just potential right now. Luis Madero (16), acquired from the Diamondbacks for David Hernandez after 2017, saw his stuff tick up in 2018, ending the year at 91-92 with a 55 slider and below-average changeup. He seems at worst like a two-pitch reliever, and the Angels added him to their 40-man this winter. Right-hander Stiward Aquino (17) missed the year after Tommy John surgery, using the time to add some muscle to his lean 6-foot-6-inch frame. He had a plus fastball/curveball combination before he got hurt.
Jeremy Beasley (18) was a 30th-round pick out of Clemson who's made a splash with a splitter and a 92-93 mph fastball with big life, reaching Double-A in his first full pro season last year. He's worked as a starter although he may not have a plus pitch to miss enough bats to stay in that role. I still like Trent Deveaux (19), but he didn't hit at all in his pro debut in the Arizona League last summer. He's an elite athlete, a plus-plus runner and has a good swing but is still too slight to impact the ball or sometimes even put it in play, with a 35 percent strikeout rate and a ton of ground balls when he did make contact. Will English (20), the Angels' fifth-round pick in 2018, only hit last summer after he signed but will go out as a two-way player in 2019, with arm strength and good spin on his curveball on the mound, and good speed but not much in the way of hitting tools at the plate.
Others of note: Jesus Castillo probably needs to go to the bullpen full time. He has a plus changeup and everything else is a grade 45, and he's so far to the right side of the rubber that I think right-handed hitters see him all day. ... John Swanda, the Angels' fourth-round pick in 2017, remains an athletic project, sitting 89 and showing some ability to spin the ball but needing to pick up some arm strength. ... The Angels took college pitchers who project as relievers in the third and fourth rounds, Aaron Hernandez and Kyle Bradish, who both have big arm strength and funk in their deliveries to throw hitters off.
2019 impact: The Angels are set at just about every position other than second base, where Rengifo could hit his way into playing time sooner rather than later. Hermosillo should be their fourth outfielder if they don't add anyone from outside.
Sleeper: Adams is the most obvious candidate to go from off the top 100 into the middle or upper tier of the list. Bahamian prospects are the hot new thing, and Knowles' debut was very impressive given how young he was, and he has the tools to make a big leap as his body fills out.
The fallen: First baseman Matt Thaiss, picked 16th overall by the Angels in 2016, seems like an extra guy or below-average starter, as he's not likely to hit .300-plus with walks or end up with 25-plus homers to profile as a regular at that position. He'll turn 24 in May and still hasn't reached the majors or even conquered Triple-A.
Oakland Athletics
Oakland's system is surprisingly thin after the top few names, even before we consider the possibility that their No. 4 prospect ditches baseball entirely. They've had a ton of injuries to pitchers, a handful of major prospects acquired in trades who have flopped, and virtually nothing from the international front in several years.
1. Jesus Luzardo, LHP (ranked No. 31)
2. AJ Puk, LHP (ranked No. 33)
3. Sean Murphy, C (ranked No. 88)
4. Kyler Murray, QB
5. Austin Beck, OF
6. James Kaprielian, RHP
7. Jorge Mateo, SS
8. Lazaro Armenteros, OF
9. Jameson Hannah, OF
10. Parker Dunshee, RHP
You know about Kyler Murray by now, at least the story around him, but the bitter truth is that he has barely played baseball in the past three calendar years -- one full spring, a handful of games in another spring, less than three weeks on Cape Cod one summer, for about 350 total plate appearances since he left high school in June 2015. He's probably a thousand at-bats behind where he needs to be as a baseball player. He's very athletic with a good swing that's short and direct, with hand strength to come into some power, and has at least the speed for center if not the routes yet. He could choose baseball and then strike out 150 times in the Cal League this year. If he doesn't choose baseball now, though, it's hard to imagine him ever succeeding at it later because he's already behind developmentally.
Austin Beck shifted his approach last year to try to make more contact and show he could be a hitter first, so while his exit velocities were good he didn't show any of the raw power that made him the sixth overall pick in 2017. There's reason for cautious optimism here, since it's not as if he's lost the strength, and he was so bad when he debuted the previous summer that a 21 percent strikeout rate is cause for celebration. He's still a plus athlete who should steal some bases and could be above-average in center. James Kaprielian missed the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, experiencing a setback during his rehab, but is expected to be ready to go for spring training. Prior to the initial injury, his velocity spiked to the upper 90s and he looked like a No. 1 starter whenever he took the mound, but since that jump he hasn't stayed healthy, and even in instructs last fall his velocity was only in the low 90s. Jorge Mateo stunk last year: He hit .230/.280/.353 in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, for crying out loud, then went to the Dominican Winter League and stunk some more. Scouts reported a 70 runner who would make difficult plays at short but didn't show consistent effort, with no power and a 40 hit tool. He's better than that by the tools, but this is also the second time in three years that he's mailed it in.
Lazaro Armenteros is ensconced in left field, so he has to hit and hit for power, and did neither in low-A last year, although he was just 19 and barely out of the complex league. He should hit and is strong enough to get to power. He had a .427 BABIP in low-A last year, but his exit velocity was just a tick above league average, and he can't get by like that while striking out a third of the time. Jameson Hannah was Oakland's second-round pick in 2018 out of Dallas Baptist, a plus runner and left-handed hitter with loose hands but a one-piece swing that won't produce power. He can play center, and he should make enough contact to be a regular there. Parker Dunshee can paint with four average-ish pitches, nothing truly above average, but with the control, command and feel for pitching to keep rising up the ladder even without big stuff. Hitters haven't touched him through Double-A and he could be at least a fifth starter.
Luis Barrera (11) is a singles-hitting outfielder with very good hand-eye coordination, capable of playing all three outfield spots but not a regular in center and lacking the angle in his swing to produce enough power for a corner spot, but he should see the majors as an extra outfielder. Jeremy Eierman (12), Oakland's pick in the second compensation round, has power and speed, and might stay at short, but he struck out way too often in college and kept doing so in pro ball, with 70 strikeouts (26 percent of PA) against 12 unintentional walks in short-season Vermont. Sheldon Neuse (13) had just 40 games of experience above low-A coming into 2018, but he was already 23, so the A's bumped him up to Triple-A, and he fell on his face with a 32 percent strikeout rate and .263/.304/.357 line in the PCL. He's a solid third baseman -- in this organization, that and $1 will get you a Coke -- and I think most folks, myself included, who'd seen him before thought he would at least hit for some average, but now he's in prove-it purgatory.
Daulton Jefferies (14) also is on the mend from Tommy John surgery and should be on the same timetable as Kaprielian. He didn't have Kaprielian's ceiling but was more advanced as a pitcher when he blew out, with more history of injury. Nick Allen (15) is a definite shortstop, at least a 60 defender, but he didn't hit at all in his full-season debut (.239/.301/.302), and he may not have the hand strength to hit enough to get to the majors. He is a plus runner, so there's value there if he can just get on base more, even without power. The A's second-rounder from 2017, Greg Deichmann (16), broke a hamate bone and played just 47 games outside of his rehab stint, hitting .199/.276/.392 for high-A Stockton. We can give him a mulligan on the year given the injury and his previous history of hitting.
Marcos Brito (17), who signed for $1.1 million in 2016, might have an above-average hit tool, profiling best at second base with a probable utility infielder outcome. Gus Varland (18), Oakland's 14th-round pick in 2018 out of Division II Concordia (St. Paul), punched out 34 percent of batters faced across three levels, including full-season low-A, in his debut last summer, missing bats with a high-spin fastball while showing an average slider.
2019 impact: There's nearly always opportunity for young players in Oakland, other than at third base right now, so if Mateo plays up to his abilities, he should end up with playing time in the majors. Puk wasn't far off when he got hurt, and if he comes back healthy this spring, he could be a bullpen piece in August or September. Murphy probably debuts this summer as well.
Sleeper: Outside of Murray, Hannah has the best shot to make a jump into the top 100 of all their healthy prospects.
The fallen: The A's were crushed by injuries -- Kaprielian, Jefferies and Deichmann among them. Right-hander Grant Holmes, a big piece of the Rich Hill trade with the Dodgers and a former first-rounder, threw just six innings all year due to a rotator cuff injury. Former first-rounder Richie Martin had a fair year in Double-A after an awful 2017, but the A's chose not to protect him on their 40-man roster and the Orioles selected him in the Rule 5 draft. Hard-throwing right-hander Dakota Chalmers underwent Tommy John surgery in April, and the A's traded him to the Twins in August for Fernando Rodney.
Seattle Mariners
A year or two ago it looked like someone had turned this system into a newt, but it got better, as the Mariners decided to try to rebuild this winter. They added three top-100 prospects and, just as importantly, kept some of their own prospects in the system so that they might continue to develop and eventually restock the big club.
1. Justus Sheffield, LHP (ranked No. 34)
2. Jarred Kelenic, OF (ranked No. 38)
3. Justin Dunn, RHP (ranked No. 58)
4. Evan White, 1B
5. Kyle Lewis, OF
6. Logan Gilbert, RHP
7. Julio Rodriguez, OF
8. Braden Bishop, OF
9. Cal Raleigh, C
10. Noelvi Marte, SS
Evan White is an 80 defender at first who'd probably be average or better in the outfield, but 80 defenders are so rare that the Mariners will probably just let him play first. At the plate, he has a solid eye and good contact skills, with above-average to plus raw power that doesn't show up in games because he hasn't focused much on driving the ball, although he did do more of that, and hit for more power, in the second half of 2018. Kyle Lewis played 86 games last year, up from 49 the year before, but was still hampered by the lingering effects of the ACL and meniscus tears that ended his first pro summer in 2016. There's some hope that after several surgeries he's back to where he was before the injury, and that the 25-plus homer power will still be there, although now he has some lost time to try to make up for in working on hitting better pitching, especially off-speed stuff.
Logan Gilbert lost some weight in the spring due to mono, and the Mariners thought they could get some extra value in the draft if they could just get him healthy and back to full strength. He was 88-92 this spring but up to 95 the summer before on the Cape, and the fastball plays, missing bats even in the zone thanks to his big extension out front. He'll show an average curveball and has a changeup that he didn't use much in college. Julio Rodriguez signed in 2017 for $1.75 million and raked in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League with a .315/.404/.525 line, earning praise for his swing decisions and his power, with 27 extra-base hits in 59 games. He has a good, balanced, right-handed swing, with above-average power when he gets his arms extended, and his 6-3 frame has barely begun to fill out.
Braden Bishop's season ended in late July when a pitch broke his hand, but he had a solid year in Double-A, hitting .284/.361/.412 with plus or better defense in center, enough that he's clearly a big-league fourth outfielder, and could even turn into a Kevin Pillar-type regular whose defense carries him and who adds a little more value with some doubles and walks. Cal Raleigh was their third-round pick after a monster spring at Florida State, where he was seen as a big bat but probably not a catcher. He's going to continue to catch, as the Mariners have already worked with him on footwork and throwing, while he's shown initiative to learn more about game-calling and framing -- all stuff that wasn't taught at the college level. If he can catch, he might be more than just an everyday guy because he's going to get on base and hit 20-plus homers, and he really hasn't been the big swing-and-miss guy you'd expect from the profile. Noelvi Marte was the Mariners' big splash in this past year's July 2 crop, signing for $1.55 million. He's a shortstop now but is already listed at 6-1, 180, and is going to get bigger, enough to push him to third or the outfield, but there is some juice in his bat. His swing can get long, but he might end up with 70 power, in which case, where he plays will be much less of a concern.
Erik Swanson (11) came with Sheffield in the Paxton deal and is a back-end starter or multi-inning reliever with average fastball velocity but big angle and spin to the pitch, as well as an average slider and changeup. He became too homer-prone in Triple-A to pencil him in as a definite starter, but I wouldn't be surprised if Seattle lets him take the ball a dozen times this year. Right-hander Sam Carlson (12) missed 2018 after Tommy John surgery and might return later this summer. He's a big kid with arm strength but needed work on secondaries and command, which means he needs reps that he hasn't gotten yet.
Lefty Ricardo Sanchez (13) is on his third organization, a 40-man casualty in Atlanta whom the Mariners picked up in a shrewd trade. Sanchez has had trouble staying healthy as a starter, but in relief he'd likely show a plus fastball/slider combination and does have the changeup to be more than just a specialist. Shortstop Juan Querecuto (14) made his pro debut in the Dominican last summer, a year after signing for $1.225 million, and he's still promising but raw physically, with fair tools but praise for his baseball IQ.
Dom Thompson-Williams (15) came over in the Paxton deal as a flier for the Mariners, who think that his surge last year as a 23-year-old in A-ball reflects a newfound commitment to conditioning and to working on his game. He did come into power last year, with 22 bombs in 100 games between low-A and high-A. Jake Fraley (16), who came over in the Mallex Smith trade this winter, a plus runner with some patience and below-average power, probably an extra outfielder or a poor man's regular in center. Second baseman Shed Long (17) is their latest acquisition, in a trade that sent second-rounder Josh Stowers to the Yankees. Long can't really play second, and I have several concerns with his swing that lead me to think he's not going to hit better pitching. Gerson Bautista (18) was the third prospect in the Robinson Cano deal, and reportedly was in the upper 90s in the past, was at 94-96 when I saw him in the fall league with an average slider and terrible changeup. He's probably just an up-and-down reliever.
2019 impact: I assume Sheffield spends most of the year in Seattle's rotation, and that Swanson ends up on the staff in some role. Bishop would be the extra outfielder, but they may not have a roster spot for him right now. Dunn could make his debut by year-end.
Sleeper: If Raleigh goes out next year and shows people he can catch well enough to stay at the position, he'll be a top-100 prospect because of what his bat could offer. Rodriguez might be a better sleeper candidate for 2021 but has the most upside of their lower-tier prospects.
The fallen: Joe Rizzo was a surprising pick in the second round of 2016 -- and more surprising when he got an over-slot bonus of $1.75 million at the 50th pick. He didn't hit at all in the Cal League last year, not even for average, which was the one thing it looked like he would do, with a simple left-handed swing. He's also unplayable at third base, so he has to go to right field or even to first, which would kill any remaining value, because he hasn't hit.
Texas Rangers
Texas' philosophy on amateur players has shifted a little since A.J. Preller left to run the Padres, with less emphasis on pure athleticism and more focus on players who, while still athletic, show more present baseball skill. You can see some early returns from the new approach across their top 10 with players who retain physical upside but don't require huge leaps in development.
1. Leody Taveras, OF (ranked No. 62)
2. Cole Winn, RHP (ranked No. 72)
3. Hans Crouse, RHP (ranked No. 95)
4. Joe Palumbo, LHP (just missed)
5. Julio Pablo Martinez, OF
6. Cole Ragans, RHP
7. Jonathan Hernandez, RHP
8. Brock Burke, LHP
9. Anderson Tejeda, SS
10. Taylor Hearn, LHP
Julio Pablo Martinez, signed as a free agent after he defected from Cuba, is listed at 5 feet 9 inches, but looks shorter than that. He's a 70 runner when he gets going and has good hand speed at the plate, probably more a doubles power guy than a future home run hitter. He didn't perform that well for a 22-year-old in short-season, hitting .252/.351/.436, and probably belongs in high-A to start 2019. If he hits more now that he's acclimated to pro ball, he could be a regular in center field who steals 30-plus bags a year. Cole Ragans missed 2018 after Tommy John surgery, and could be back by mid-2019. Prior to the surgery he was working in the low 90s with a plus changeup and average breaker, walking more guys than expected in 2017 given his reputation as a polished pitcher with a delivery that he repeats well.
Jonathan Hernandez works in the mid-90s, sitting 93-95 up to 97, with both a slider and changeup that will flash plus, but there's still nothing consistent about his secondary pitches or his command. He's online to the plate with a very loose arm swing, although he can struggle to maintain a consistent slot as he changes speeds. He has a wide range of potential outcomes -- you could see a No. 3 starter if you get him on a night when he has three above-average pitches working, or you could see a future reliever thanks to fringy control and inconsistency on the slider and change. Brock Burke has a four-pitch mix that improved across the board last year, bumping 98 mph with both his curveball and changeup flashing plus. There's some small chance that he takes another leap, more in command and pitchability now than pure stuff, and becomes a well above-average major-league starter, although the better bet is he's a solid No. 4 who has a season or two where he's better. He was the main prize coming back in the trade that sent Jurickson Profar to Oakland.
Anderson Tejeda signed for just $100,000 in 2014, and so far has attracted attention as someone who probably stays at shortstop and has unusual power for the position, although last year he did all of his damage against right-handed pitching -- .292/.369/.504 against righties, .172/.225/.258 against lefties. He's now working on switch-hitting, which could make him someone to watch for a big leap this year, as he's become an average defender at short with a plus arm, and he just has to be more than useless against lefties to profile as a solid regular or more. Taylor Hearn still pumps upper 90s gas with a plus changeup and ridiculous extension. He misses a ton of bats as a starter, even without an average breaking ball, and his walk rate is higher than you'd like but not so bad that he has to move immediately to relief. He might be someone who makes 50 starts in the majors before he ends up in the bullpen and becomes a very high-strikeout, late-game reliever.
Outfielder Bubba Thompson (11) still has the tools of a first-rounder -- he was the 26th overall pick in 2017 -- but his approach at the plate, notably recognition of off-speed pitches, is still way behind where it should be, and he was an old high school senior who'll play at 21 this year. He was a two-sport star in high school, also playing quarterback, so he was behind developmentally when he signed, but the biological clock is ticking. Tyler Phillips (12) is 90-94 with an above-average changeup and plus control, walking 16 guys in 133 innings last year in low-A and one start in high-A. He has a fringe-average breaking ball and has probably maxed out his stuff, so his ceiling is limited, but he has a high floor and should pitch for a while at the back of someone's rotation.
Sherten Apostel (13), who came over from Pittsburgh with Hearn in the Keone Kela deal, is a huge third baseman with plus raw power and a plus arm, showing real OBP skills in short-season last year with good quality at-bats but still not fully tapping into the power he shows in BP. His hands are fine for third base but there's a good chance he gets too big for the infield and moves to right. Shortstop Chris Seise (14) missed all of 2018 after surgery on the rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder, so we'll have to see how his arm recovers and if it affects his chances to stay at short. He's a plus runner who had some feel to hit, projecting for average more than power, and a good swing before the injury.
Owen White (15) was up to 93 this spring with a raw delivery that looked like it could be refined to make it more repeatable and the beginnings of an above-average breaking ball plus good physical projection. The Rangers took him in the second round and paid him over slot, $1.5 million, with promising results in instructs as his velocity started to creep up into the mid-90s. Jonathan Ornelas (16) was their third-round pick in 2018, a prep shortstop from Arizona who probably moves to third base or right field, with raw power but a noisy swing. He had a very strong debut in the Arizona League, striking out only 20 percent of the time in his first pro experience.
Cuban shortstop Diosbel Arias (17) tore up the Northwest League last summer, hitting .366/.451/.491 despite barely playing in the previous three calendar years, and probably should have finished up in full-season ball. He's not a long-term shortstop but could probably play second or third right now, and runs well with good instincts on the bases, in the field and at the plate. He's already 22, so he should at least be in high-A in 2019. A.J. Alexy (18) came over in the Yu Darvish trade and saw his stuff tick up with the Rangers; he's now sitting 93-94 with an above-average curveball and an average slider. He needs to improve his changeup, as he doesn't have a good weapon against lefties and walked 17 percent of the left-handed batters he faced last year.
Texas prep right-hander Mason Englert (19), their fourth-round pick, is a potential four-pitch starter with a lot of projection to his 6-foot-4 frame, an above-average fastball and promise to both the slider and curveball. Both right-handers Kyle Cody (20) and Alex Speas (21) had Tommy John surgery; Speas was still all stuff and no command, but Cody looked like he had a chance to start and was a definite bullpen piece before he blew out.
Other names of note: Catcher Sam Huff can throw and receives well, although he's really big for the position, listed at 6-4, 230, and that .292 OBP he posted as a 20-year-old in low-A last year won't help him if he has to move to first. ... Lefty C.D. Pelham represented the Rangers in the Futures Game, throwing 97-98 with a fringy slider, but his command and control are both below-average even for a reliever.
2019 impact: Hernandez or Burke could make starts for the big club this summer, although right now it doesn't seem like the Rangers have an opening in their rotation. Third baseman Patrick Wisdom, acquired in a December trade for Drew Robinson, is 27 but still a rookie and has enough power to have some value in a bench role.
Sleeper: Tejeda's switch-hitting experiment might be what gets him to the next level as a prospect, if it helps him do anything at all against southpaws. Burke could make the back of the top 100 next year, but he also could end up ineligible if he starts 2019 the way he finished last season and pushes his way to the majors.
The fallen: Lefty Yohander Mendez was a top-100 guy a few years ago, but has gotten consistently worse as he's moved up the ladder, posting ERAs around 5 in Double-A and Triple-A last year. He needs to move to the bullpen, although as a fastball/changeup lefty he'd be a non-traditional left-handed reliever.