We had a healthy amount of roster shuffling during this past NHL offseason, exacerbated by the addition of an expansion draft for the new Vegas Golden Knights. In September, I wrote about a handful of players who were changing jerseys for the coming campaign but had long been familiar to fantasy owners. With October quickly coming to a close, it's time to check in on those players and see how they've fared in their new homes.
Patrick Marleau, RW, Toronto Maple Leafs
While the hope was that the veteran Marleau would get a chance to play consistently on a line with Auston Matthews, that has not been the case. Marleau has filled a role on a scoring line with Nazem Kadri and Leo Komarov at even strength. Still, he hasn't been a disappointment. Optimistic outlooks were looking for 30 goals on the wing with Matthews, but playing apart from the sophomore sensation still has Marleau on an 82-game pace for 33 goals and 57 points. Plus, he has two power-play assists on a unit with Matthews. If these are the results while Marleau is playing apart from one of the most dynamic playmakers in the NHL, fantasy owners have to be pleased. Inevitably, lines will be juggled at some point, so the 30-goal season from Marleau should now be viewed as a floor, rather than a ceiling.
Jordan Eberle, RW, New York Islanders
Eberle was looking to get a fresh start after being pushed down the depth chart with the Edmonton Oilers and seemed to win the trade lottery by landing on the Islanders, where John Tavares was in need of a new winger. The relationship between Eberle and Tavares has been slow to show results on the ice, but could be coming into its own in recent outings. Despite the slow start by Eberle, coach Doug Weight has stuck by the line combination and is showing patience. Tavares finally had his two biggest outings of the season during the past week in wins against the San Jose Sharks and Arizona Coyotes. While Eberle only walked away with two assists, he still shared in the bulk of Tavares' ice time. He is still without a goal in an Islanders uniform, but those rostering Eberle should take a page from Weight and show a little more patience. If the chemistry develops, the results could still be explosive -- and it's not as if Eberle's six assists in 10 games are hurting fantasy owners too much at this point.
Brandon Saad, RW, Chicago Blackhawks
As pointed out in September, Saad had previously never averaged more than 17:13 in ice time in a season. So far this year, Saad is averaging 19:06. The extra two minutes of ice time per game are giving the results fantasy owners hoped for. With nine points through 10 games, Saad has started his season on pace for career highs almost across the board. Playing alongside Jonathan Toews at even strength and on the power play, this breakout is for real and 40 goals are a legitimate possibility.
Artemi Panarin, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets
It seems the Patrick Kane and Panarin breakup has been amicable for both players. While Kane is as explosive as ever with 12 points in 10 games, Panarin hasn't done too shabby either now with the Blue Jackets. With a goal and nine assists, Panarin has kept up his ridiculous accumulation of points at the NHL level, even without Kane by his side. Playing mostly with Cam Atkinson and Alexander Wennberg -- on and off the power play -- has allowed Panarin to continue rolling along just fine and alleviated any fears of him not being able to produce apart from Kane. As a bonus, his average ice time is up a full minute on last season.
Jonathan Drouin, RW, Montreal Canadiens
It's too soon to pass judgment on Drouin because, inexplicably, he's still playing on a lonely island. It was hoped the move to Montreal would finally give Drouin some consistent, top-of-the-depth-chart linemates to play with, but the team has stumbled so hard out of the gates that it feels as if is Drouin is back on the third line for the Tampa Bay Lightning again. In fact, Drouin arguably played on the third line for the Canadiens in their shutout loss Thursday. For what it's worth, Drouin's seven points make him the clear-cut offensive leader for the hapless Habs and better days will be ahead when the team finally gets its act together. But for now, Drouin remains on pace to actually finish with lower totals than last season on a per-game basis.
Shea Theodore, D, Vegas Golden Knights
I'm sticking with the same players I wrote about in September for this update, so that means spending a few moments here touching on an AHL player. The Golden Knights season has defied explanation to date, and the team's success brings little need for any major adjustments or facing the potential loss of personnel to waivers by adding Theodore to the active roster. For what it's worth, this guy does not belong in the AHL by any means. Theodore leads all AHL defensemen in points per game with four goals and nine points in six contests and leads all AHL defensemen in shots on goal with 27 (seven more than second place). Colin Miller and Brad Hunt would immediately cede power-play time to Theodore if the Knights ever find the means to bring him up.
It might be too soon to pass complete judgment on a new coach and new system for the Stars, but the results so far still point to an overall below-average ability for this group to keep pucks out of the net. Bishop's numbers aren't bad by any means, but losses to the Colorado Avalanche and Oilers this week brought his ratios out of No. 1 goalie territory. The pace for 45 wins is certainly a positive, but Bishop has given up three or more goals in five of nine starts this season. Those goals-against numbers will keep him out of the fantasy top 10 at his position.
Fantasy Forecaster: Oct. 30-Nov.5
The NHL schedule for next week features exactly the same number of games as the week preceding it, with five NHL teams on a four-game schedule and four playing just twice (the rest all have three games).
Of the busy four-game teams, none play at home more than twice and three of them are on the road for all four games, so the extra contest might not be as beneficial as it appears at first glance. The Coyotes and Philadelphia Flyers both enjoy two games at home and two on the road, while the Canadiens, Maple Leafs and Golden Knights are on extended road trips. Among the three-game teams, the Oilers, Sharks, Florida Panthers, Minnesota Wild, Ottawa Senators, St. Louis Blues and Vancouver Canucks all play at home for all of their games.
The Forecaster really doesn't like the Calgary Flames or Buffalo Sabres among the teams with only two games.
We've removed the safety net of last season's statistics from the Forecaster calculations now that we have almost a month of data. Yes, that is still a small sample size for the calculations in some cases, especially for road/home splits, but it's still the preferable alternative to using data from last season. The stats fed into the Forecaster are updated each week, and the more games played through the season, the more the formulas have to compare the matchups.
Note: For those new to the forecaster chart, here are some explanations: "O" (offense) and "D" (defense) matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup) and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's season-to-date statistics, their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played, as well as their opponents' numbers in those categories. The "Ratings" column lists the cumulative rating from 1-10 of that week's offensive ("O") and defensive ("D") matchups.
In the notes -- team, goalie and player -- below, the focus every week will be mainly on players that are available for potential use. Rostering below 50 percent of ESPN leagues is a good generalized cutoff, and I'll try to include players below 10 percent whenever possible to cater to deeper formats.
Team notes
Vegas Golden Knights:
The Golden Knights remain a tough contender and continue to exceed all expectations. On the road against four Eastern Conference opponents, the Knights should be on the fantasy radar for the short-term. While the "top" line has cooled off somewhat, the trio of Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson is showing some life. That line also led the way for power-play ice time among forwards in the win against the Blackhawks on Thursday. Similarly, it's Colin Miller and Brad Hunt leading the way on the blue line for the time being. In deeper leagues, all five players should be on the radar for spot starts next week.
The Predators project well on the Forecaster for a road trip through California next week. The usual suspects are all no-brainer starts, but going a little deeper, make sure Viktor Arvidsson (rostered in 84.9 percent of ESPN leagues) is active and consider adding Scott Hartnell to your bench for his power-play usage. The Predators play on Wednesday and Friday, two light nights for games, so it should be easy to get them in the lineup in leagues with daily changes.
St. Louis Blues:
The Blues, for the record, are a perfect 3-0-0 at home and have outscored the opposition 14-6. With all three games at home next week, we can go a little deeper on the roster for help. Alexander Steen (64.9 percent) exploded for four points (two on the power play) on Wednesday and should be getting play in more leagues. Colton Parayko (85.4 percent) has been watching his shots on goal trend up lately, and with a cannon like his, that usually means goals.
Goalie notes
Oscar Dansk, G, Vegas Golden Knights (rostered in 4.5 percent of ESPN leagues)
Marc-Andre Fleury and Malcolm Subban remain sidelined, and Dansk has been solid in their stead with the win against the Blackhawks counting for more in fantasy owners' eyes because of the quality of opposition. If neither starter ahead of him on the depth chart returns for next week (Fleury is getting close), Dansk could be in line for all four starts. Remember: This team is 7-1-0.
Antti Raanta, G, Arizona Coyotes (10.9 percent)
Getting close to a return from a lower-body injury, Raanta is sorely needed in the Coyotes crease. Louis Domingue and Adin Hill have proven porous. A four-game schedule only features one back-to-back set next week, and the opponents shouldn't be overwhelming (Flyers, Detroit Red Wings, Sabres, Carolina Hurricanes).
Player notes
Sven Baertschi, LW, Vancouver Canucks (2.7 percent)
For the first time in more than a decade, the Canucks top line doesn't feature fellow named Daniel or Henrik. It's exceedingly clear that the torch has been passed to Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser and Sven Baertschi, at least for the time being. Derek Dorsett's crazy numbers set aside, the trio is leading the Canucks in points and production -- on and off the power play. All eight of Baertschi's points have come in the past eight games, which is when Boeser made his season debut.
Radim Vrbata, RW, Florida Panthers (44.6 percent)
A hat trick on Thursday brought Vrbata's season totals to three goals, five assists and 30 shots on goal in nine games played. Throughout some mild line juggling to find the right combination for the second line, Vrbata seems linked with Vincent Trocheck as the two mainstays of the unit. A threat for 30 goals throughout his career, Vrbata is at home for all three games next week and deserving of a trial presence in your lineup.