Forecaster: What you need to know for Oct. 17-23

There has been nothing like this for fantasy hockey purposes before. The player tabbed as the next best thing stepped onto the ice and blew everyone's most optimistic expectations out of the water. Of course, we do have to be reasonable in a few ways:

• 1. This Toronto Maple Leafs-Ottawa Senators game was a fast and loose affair and it didn't look like anyone for Ottawa was playing defense. In 2,460 NHL games last season, only 23 times did a team have a game with more shot attempts than the Maple Leafs had against the Senators on Wednesday.

• 2. Matthews won't catch anyone else off guard. Who was on the Leafs' top line coming into this game? Of course we knew the projected lines, but which one was the top one? It could have been any of the top three, as coach Mike Babcock has taken a balanced approach to his deployment this season. Now everyone knows the top line to defend against is whichever one Matthews is on.

• 3. Does this really change everyone's overall projections? Does one four-goal game change the opinion that Matthews is going to score 25 goals and 50-some-odd points? A little, but not a lot. Does it feel more natural to say 30 goals and 60-plus points after watching him play in an NHL game? Yes. But if that's true, his remaining 26 goals and 56 points will be spread out over the next 81 games. There will be valleys to counter this ultimate peak.

Of course, all of this caution goes out the window when Matthews scores four more on Saturday.

Fantasy Forecaster: Oct. 17-23

As you're already aware by the title, the Fantasy Forecaster is back for another season of NHL action.

We apologize for being a week late, but from here on out this will be your one-stop shop for planning your transactions based on the coming slate of games. Teams can range from the rare white whale of the NHL schedule -- when a team plays five games in a week -- to the equally rare (but despicable) one-game week. It happens as the schedule for NHL teams ebbs and flows with travel and days off, and it's something that can be a major factor in your league.

While the most obvious use for the Fantasy Forecaster is for those owners playing in weekly leagues of some kind, whether that is weekly roster deadlines or weekly waiver periods. But don't overlook the usefulness of a quick capsule review of the schedule for more active fantasy leagues, too. Those in daily lineup leagues or DFS can still take a glimpse at the forecaster grid and our recommendations to help decide on moves.

The annual reminder for the start of the season still applies: Take the ratings with a grain of salt until there is enough data for the Fantasy Forecaster to really start chewing on it. The offensive and defensive game ratings are based on goals, shots, special teams and shot attempts for each team, weighted with a home and road split for each club. Obviously, until some statistics from the current season start accumulating, these numbers will largely be based on last season. And as we know, a lot has changed since then.

Access the downloadable forecaster chart PDF here

Team notes

Arizona Coyotes: While we know very little about how NHL defenses will fare this season, we know the Senators didn't look very solid in that department on Wednesday. The Coyotes have four road games next week, but including the Sens on that docket helps us -- at least for now -- view this as a favorable road trip. The early part of the season leaves you with many question marks for how players might contribute in new roles, but Radim Vrbata is, technically speaking, returning to an old role. It appears as though Vrbata will open the campaign on the top line with his former linemate Martin Hanzal as well as dynamic sophomore Max Domi. Owned in only eight percent of ESPN leagues, Vrbata is worth a look here. His 35-goal season in 2011-12 came while skating on a line with Hanzal and Ray Whitney.

Calgary Flames: The Flames get to hang around in Calgary to play three home games next week, and none of them are back-to-back couplets. It should be a nice week to get to know each other, especially since two of the players on the top line on Wednesday didn't skate an inch together in training camp. Johnny Gaudreau's late re-signing and Kris Versteeg's last-minute addition to the team showed clearly on Wednesday, as the Oilers thumped the Flames 7-4. Even though he snuck in to steal the top-line role, Versteeg isn't the only name of interest. Troy Brouwer still joined Gaudreau and Sean Monahan for the Flames' first power-play unit, and is getting time on the second line at even strength. He'll be worth keeping a close eye on. Also of note for the Flames is that T.J. Brodie was not paired with Mark Giordano at even strength, as new coach Glen Gulutzan appears to favor balance. Without the role next to Giordano, Brodie's chances of value as a No. 4 fantasy defenseman are greatly reduced.

Anaheim Ducks: Despite some indications otherwise, coach Randy Carlyle isn't going to mess with what works -- at least to start the season. Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry were back on a line together to lead the Ducks on Thursday. With Rickard Rakell just re-signing on Friday afternoon, youngster Nick Ritchie is getting an extended look on the top line with Getzlaf and Perry. Cory Schneider is always an imposing opponent, but the Ducks also play the Philadelphia Flyers and Vancouver Canucks next week.

Goalie notes

• The Los Angeles Kings will be turning to Jeff Zatkoff in the short term, and fantasy owners should follow their lead. The success of goaltenders in the L.A. system comes naturally, as the team plays some of the best defense in the NHL. The Kings were first in the NHL for fewest shot attempts allowed last season, and second in the category in 2014-15. The team makes things as easy as possible for its netminder, regardless of the name on the jersey. Jonathan Quick's status is week-to-week with a lower-body injury, so ride Zatkoff while you can. The same logic applies to Peter Budaj if the team ends up looking his way for more starts over the inexperienced Zatkoff.

• Everyone is expecting Connor Hellebuyck to take the goaltending job for the Winnipeg Jets and run with it. Sure, that seems like the most likely scenario and the one you should plan for in your fantasy hockey strategy. But those who like to hedge their bets a little might want to at least consider the appeal of Michael Hutchinson. Coach Paul Maurice is going to have a short leash on his goalies this season, and any signs of struggle will mean he switches to the other one. Hutchinson, while nothing special last season when this team was a three-headed monster in the crease, had a sterling season in 2014-15 between the pipes. And three of the four goals against Hellebuyck on Thursday could be described as "softies."

• Chicago Blackhawks backup goaltender Scott Darling will likely draw either the Toronto Maple Leafs or the Columbus Blue Jackets in a set of back-to-back games for the club later next week. Either is a quality matchup for a backup if you are able to stash him for a single use.

• It would be easy to dismiss Sergei Bobrovsky after allowing five goals to the Bruins on Thursday, but don't be so hasty. For four of the five goals against him, Bobrovsky had zero chance to save the puck. Those goals are on his teammates, and if the Blue Jackets, who are a very young team, can close some of the gaps in their coverage as the season continues, Bobrovsky will still have plenty of chances to shine. Of course, if they can't make those fixes, it's going to be a long season for Bobrovsky.

Player notes

• Evander Kane looks to be joining Jack Eichel and Kyle Okposo on the sidelines for the Buffalo Sabres, and it's a horrible case of the team missing arguably their three most dynamic forwards. In the meantime, the Sabres will have to stack their depth chart as best they can, which will leave an opportunity for Zemgus Girgensons to carve out an offensive role. It's been a couple of seasons since he was a meaningful contributor, but there is some history of production there to offer hope while he skates with Ryan O'Reilly and Sam Reinhart.

• While it would be more fun to focus here on the "Bourque Squared" line for the Avalanche -- with Gabriel Bourque and Rene Bourque (unrelated) apparently set to open the campaign on the flanks of the third line -- the sneaky fantasy value more likely rests on the second line with Mikhail Grigorenko. A potential post-hype breakout, Grigorenko looked terrific in the preseason, tying for the league lead with four goals. He'll play with Matt Duchene and Carl Soderberg to open the season Saturday.

• Remember Devin Setoguchi? He scored 31 goals and 65 points for the San Jose Sharks in 2008-09, but has been a fantasy afterthought since he left the Sharks in 2011. However, the Kings lined him up next to Anze Kopitar to start the season, which earns an eyebrow raise. His last NHL point came in March 2014, but Setoguchi managed 24 points in 30 games playing with HC Davos in the Swiss league last season. Anybody playing with Kopitar should at least be on your radar.

• Rounding out the Montreal Canadiens' top six to start the season is 21-year-old Finnish prospect Artturi Lehkonen. Playing with Alexander Radulov and Tomas Plekanec, Lehkonen fired five shots on goal in his debut on Thursday.

• For now, David Perron is filling in on the St. Louis Blues' top line with Vladimir Tarasenko as Jaden Schwartz misses the first month of the campaign with an elbow injury. But keep an eye on what coach Ken Hitchcock does with Nail Yakupov. The former first-overall draft pick earned two points on Thursday in a third-line role. There are still plenty of games for him to make a move before Schwartz returns.

• The biggest winner in the Jacob Trouba saga so far has definitely been Josh Morrissey. Opening the regular season as Dustin Byfuglien's defensive partner, Morrissey has high-end potential for his offensive game, having scored at a strong pace throughout his junior career.