When the NFL began a one-year experiment aimed at improving kickoff safety, it pledged to avoid hasty analysis based on a small sample of data. Not until after four weeks of play, the league said, would it begin assessing the effectiveness of moving touchbacks from the 20- to the 25-yard line.
We've reached that point, and the trend that began in the preseason and continued in Week 1 has persisted. Unless the pattern changes, the league almost certainly will abandon or substantively alter the rule after the season.
The league hoped to reduce returns, and thus the chances of concussions and other injuries, by incentivizing returners to take a touchback rather than return kicks out of the end zone. Coaches, however, have been unwilling to cede those extra 5 yards and have followed through on promises to force a higher return rate than last season. They have instructed their kickers to boot shorter kickoffs that on average are landing well short of the goal line, raising the percentage of kicks returned from 33.49 percent in the first four weeks of 2015 to 38.12 percent this season.
The full details are in the chart. Kickoffs are reaching the end zone at a rate of 79.4 percent, down from 91.9 percent last season. Kickoff-specific injury numbers are not available, but the premise of the rule was that fewer returns would result in fewer injuries. An increase in returns presumably would have the opposite effect.
The effectiveness of the coaches' strategy is less clear, however.
The average drive is starting at the 24.6-yard line, up from the 21.2-yard line last season. If they were kicking into the end zone at the same rate as last season, resulting in more touchbacks to the 25, the average start wouldn't be much higher than it is now. The numbers show teams using a wide variety of strategies, but in the end, all 32 of them have surrendered higher average start drives than the leaguewide 2015 average.
The most committed team has been the Houston Texans, who have booted an NFL-low 47.4 percent of their kickoffs into the end zone and have only one touchback this season. The average start drive of their opponents is the 23.5-yard line, ranking fifth in the league.
But coverage-team performance appears just as important as kicking strategy. The San Francisco 49ers have produced the second-lowest end zone rate (52.6 percent) and have eight touchbacks on 19 total kickoffs. But opponents are still starting their average drive at the 27.1-yard line, the third-highest in the league.
The team that appears to have handled the new rule most effectively is, not surprisingly, the New England Patriots. They are kicking the ball into the end zone at a rate of 78.9 percent and have a touchback rate of 64.7 percent. But they have timed their short kicks strategically and covered them well, allowing opponents an average of only 15.9 yards per return and none longer than 21 yards.
In a memorable Week 3 moment captured by NFL Films, Patriots coach Bill Belichick told special-teams coach Joe Judge to "make them run it." Place-kicker Stephen Gostkowski dropped the next kickoff just 1 yard deep in the end zone, a spot where most returners still take it out, and the Texans' Charles James did so. James fumbled, and the Patriots recovered at the 22-yard line and scored a touchdown one play later en route to a 27-0 victory.
It's fair to assume the NFL won't simply abort its attempts to make the kickoff safer. Eliminating the kickoff altogether remains an option, but it's worth noting that special-teams coaches around the league proposed an alternative during a conference call this spring.
The approach would transform kickoffs into a play that looks more like a punt. The returning team would be required to have eight men between the 45-yard lines, and the kicking team would be prohibited from taking a running start. That alignment, as the theory goes, would remove much of the force from downfield collisions and thus accomplish the goal of reducing injuries while maintaining the core of the play itself.
There are still 13 weeks remaining in the season, ostensibly more than enough time for this trend to even out or even reverse itself. But historically, touchback numbers have dropped as seasons progress because of weather and other conditions. The early returns are in, and at the moment this rule change is failing.