There are three weeks left in the 2025 NFL regular season, which means the top part of the 2026 draft order is nearly set. When the regular season ends in early January, we will know the slots for the top 18 picks. But using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), we can project the entire order for all 32 selections a little early.
Each week during the season, ESPN's FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based primarily on the model's team ratings and game locations. The draft order is determined by the records the model projects for each team after 17 games, as well as each team's average draft position across the simulations.
Our FPI predictions are currently giving the Raiders the first pick, but who is behind them in the top 10? Where could teams with two first-round picks end up selecting? Which teams are locked into the top five? Check out our full projections below ahead of Week 16.
1. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
Average draft position: 2.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 39.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 93.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100.0%
2. Cleveland Browns (3-11)
Average draft position: 3.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 18.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 90.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100.0%
3. Tennessee Titans (2-12)
Average draft position: 3.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 19.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 88.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100.0%
4. New York Giants (2-12)
Average draft position: 3.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 16.0%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 75.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 100.0%
5. New York Jets (3-11)
Average draft position: 4.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 70.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.8%
6. Arizona Cardinals (3-11)
Average draft position: 6.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 38.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.6%
7. Washington Commanders (4-10)
Average draft position: 6.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 25.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.1%
8. New Orleans Saints (4-10)
Average draft position: 7.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 12.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 93.6%
9. Cincinnati Bengals (4-10)
Average draft position: 9.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 72.8%
10. Los Angeles Rams (via 5-9 ATL)
Average draft position: 9.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 73.6%
11. Miami Dolphins (6-8)
Average draft position: 11.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.6%
12. Minnesota Vikings (6-8)
Average draft position: 12.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 15.7%
13. Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
Average draft position: 13.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.7%
14. Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)
Average draft position: 14.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.7%
15. Carolina Panthers (7-7)
Average draft position: 15.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.3%
16. New York Jets (via 8-6 IND)
Average draft position: 17.5
17. Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
Average draft position: 18.1
18. Detroit Lions (8-6)
Average draft position: 19.6
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
Average draft position: 20.2
20. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
Average draft position: 20.5
21. Chicago Bears (10-4)
Average draft position: 22.4
22. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
Average draft position: 24.4
23. Dallas Cowboys (via 9-4-1 GB)
Average draft position: 24.8
24. Houston Texans (9-5)
Average draft position: 25.0
25. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)
Average draft position: 25.1
26. Cleveland Browns (via 10-4 JAX)
Average draft position: 25.4
27. San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
Average draft position: 25.4
28. New England Patriots (11-3)
Average draft position: 25.8
29. Buffalo Bills (10-4)
Average draft position: 25.8
30. Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
Average draft position: 26.8
31. Denver Broncos (12-2)
Average draft position: 28.5
32. Los Angeles Rams (11-3)
Average draft position: 28.8