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ESPN Analytics- Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on "ESPN Bet Live" and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.
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- NFL Nation is made up of 32 team-specific reporters who cover the NFL year-round across ESPN.com, ESPN television shows, ESPN Radio, ESPN+ and social media platforms. It was established ahead of the 2013 season.
We're officially into the second half of the 2025 NFL season, and the playoff race is heating up. Though the standings tell us a lot about teams' chances to reach the postseason, they don't tell us everything. Team strength, injuries, tiebreakers, future strength of schedule and more can shift those odds up or down and don't show up in the win (or loss) column.
ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder broke down all 32 teams into nine tiers of playoff hopes, ranging from clear Super Bowl contenders to those already looking to 2026. There are various shades of gray in between because, for as much as we might feel we know about this NFL season, things could look quite different once Week 18 rolls around. The tiers are based on information from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), betting lines, performance metrics, health status and some instinct.
Walder ranked the teams in each tier, though the real delineations are from tier to tier. ESPN's NFL Nation reporters also added a tangible second-half goal for the teams they cover, whether it's securing a first-round playoff bye or evaluating the future of the team's QB position. All statistical rankings are through the Sunday late afternoon window, and playoff chances are from the FPI.
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Tier 1: True Super Bowl contenders
Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)
Chances to make the playoffs: 96.2%
Chances to win the NFC East: 94.3%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 18.9%
The defending Super Bowl champions will win their division again. That much we know. But what seed will that net them in the playoffs? They spent the trade deadline trying to shore up a couple of weaknesses at edge rusher (Jaelan Phillips) and third corner (Michael Carter II), and the offensive line hasn't been as dominant this season, but this is a roster that could still get hot in the playoffs and go all the way again. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Secure the top seed in the NFC. The Eagles have a commanding lead in the NFC East but have bigger goals in mind. They're in range for the No. 1 seed, but it's a tight race, with the top-seven teams within a game of each other in the standings. Wins against the Packers and Lions over the next two weeks could give the Eagles some breathing room. -- Tim McManus
Los Angeles Rams (7-2)
Chances to make the playoffs: 93.3%
Chances to win the NFC West: 50.5%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 20%
It's easy to forget the fragility of the Rams' Super Bowl aspirations in the preseason, as quarterback Matthew Stafford was trying to heal. Not only has Stafford been healthy, but he has played well. Wide receiver Puka Nacua is in the midst of an Offensive Player of the Year-type season. And the defense ranks fourth in EPA per play. And after handily beating the 49ers on Sunday, the Rams are virtually locked into at least a postseason berth. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Earn home-field advantage. The Rams' past two postseasons have ended in tough environments: in a loud Ford Field against the Lions in the 2023 wild-card round and in the snow in Philadelphia to end the 2024 season. Los Angeles has already lost the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Eagles this season but still has several NFC contenders on the schedule: the Seahawks (Weeks 11, 16), Buccaneers (12) and Lions (15). -- Sarah Barshop
Buffalo Bills (6-3)
Chances to make the playoffs: 91%
Chances to win the AFC East: 36.9%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 15.8%
It has been an imperfect season from Josh Allen -- who ranks 16th in QBR -- and the Bills, highlighted by their shocking loss to the Dolphins on Sunday. That defeat puts them 1½ games behind the Patriots in the AFC East division, hampering their chances to earn a home playoff game, let alone the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Though there are deserved questions about the struggling run defense, the Bills, with Allen at the helm, should still be one of the Super Bowl favorites come playoff time. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Earn the AFC's No. 1 seed. The Bills will have to get through several injuries and some offensive and defensive inefficiencies to get the top seed for the first time in the Allen era. Overtaking the Patriots in the AFC East standings comes first (a big matchup awaits in Week 15), but then all attention will be on grabbing the top seed in the conference. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Seattle Seahawks (7-2)
Chances to make the playoffs: 89.8%
Chances to win the NFC West: 33.7%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 10.5%
Quarterback Sam Darnold arrived in Seattle and proved all the critics -- myself among them -- wrong. Darnold is playing light-years ahead of where he was last season in Minnesota, and that has the Seahawks third in EPA per dropback. Back-to-back blowouts that flexed the Seahawks' strengths on both sides of the ball not only cemented them as a near-certain playoff team, but also a Super Bowl contender. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Get the run game going. Seattle has one of the NFL's highest-scoring offenses despite a rushing attack that can't get off the ground. It isn't for lack of trying. No team has a higher designed rush rate than the Seahawks (50.9%), yet they ranked 28th in yards per carry (3.8). It hasn't helped that Seattle has faced the most boxes with at least eight defenders of any team. The Seahawks hope the addition of speedy receiver Rashid Shaheed will create fewer defenders in the box, which could help open the run game. -- Brady Henderson
Tier 2: Super Bowl contenders ... if they make the playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)
Chances to make the playoffs: 75.3%
Chances to win the AFC West: 27%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 16.7%
In this space last year, I wrote about the Chiefs not being as good as their 9-0 record suggested, but all that mattered was their playoff performance. This season, the script is almost flipped. The Chiefs don't have the gaudy record, but they've played at a slightly higher level on a play-to-play basis compared with a year ago. Buoyed by a bit of a renaissance season from Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs rank second in EPA per play (0.14). Because they're 5-4, the playoffs are not a lock. Assuming they get there, they'll likely have to take the long way to the Super Bowl like in 2023, as the No. 1 seed seems to be a long shot. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: An improved pass rush. Entering their bye week, the Chiefs' biggest weakness appears to be the pass rushers around Chris Jones. The Chiefs' easiest way to go on a second-half run is to generate more pressure on the quarterback. Edge rushers George Karlaftis, Charles Omenihu and rookie Ashton Gillotte will have to improve the Chiefs' pass rush win rate, which ranks 21st at 35.6%. -- Nate Taylor
Detroit Lions (6-3)
Chances to make the playoffs: 78.2%
Chances to win the NFC North: 35%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 12.7%
It's jarring not to put the Lions in the top tier, but their record -- and the strength of the NFC North -- prevents them from being a postseason lock. The coordinator change questions have been answered -- the Lions are ranked fourth in EPA per play on offense and seventh on defense. The loss to the Vikings in Week 9 was a negative, but the Lions should be one of the NFC's most dangerous playoff teams ... assuming they make it. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Develop an offensive identity under first-year offensive coordinator John Morton. Detroit has shown glimpses of dominance, such as its 52-point outburst against Chicago in Week 2 and the 38-point effort in Week 3 at Baltimore, but the Lions are struggling with efficiency as they navigate a tough November stretch. "We are inefficient," Lions passing game coordinator David Shaw said. "We are explosive. When we do it all right, we are fun to watch." -- Eric Woodyard
Green Bay Packers (5-2-1)
Chances to make the playoffs: 80.8%
Chances to win the NFC North: 51.9%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 14.8%
Though the Packers are 5-2-1, it feels like they haven't reached their potential. They've been quite conservative in how often they run the ball vs. how often they pass it, but they have been very efficient on designed pass plays (No. 1 in EPA per dropback entering Monday). And considering Micah Parsons' presence on defense, it feels as if the pass rush has a higher ceiling, too. But they have to get to the postseason first, and that march starts with a huge game Monday night against the former Super Bowl champs. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Find another playmaker for Jordan Love. That won't be easy with the loss of tight end Tucker Kraft to a season-ending knee injury in Week 9. When he was injured, Kraft was tied for second among tight ends with six touchdown catches and ranked third among tight ends with 489 yards receiving. Kraft was Love's second-most targeted player behind Romeo Doubs. The good news is that Christian Watson has returned from last season's torn ACL and already has shown flashes of his big-play ability. The Packers should also get back receiver Jayden Reed, who is rehabbing after foot surgery and a broken collarbone. -- Rob Demovsky
Baltimore Ravens (4-5)
Chances to make the playoffs: 56.3%
Chances to win the AFC North: 51%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 7.1%
I'm fairly confident that the other teams in this tier will make the playoffs. But I'm not as certain about the Ravens after a brutal 1-5 start that included a Week 1 collapse to the Bills, a Lamar Jackson injury and bad defense. But we've caught a glimpse of the Ravens rebounding after their bye. Baltimore is fortunate to play in a winnable AFC North. Should the Ravens surge and make the playoffs, I will not doubt their chances once they get in. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Make a strong run to win a third straight AFC North title. This seemed unrealistic after a 1-5 start. But the Ravens, who have five division games remaining, are set for a strong finish as long as Jackson stays healthy. Jackson is 21-9 (.700) in his career against the AFC North, averaging 28.3 points per game. The defense has been inconsistent, but Jackson has proven he can carry a team to the top of the division. Jackson's four AFC North titles rank behind only Ben Roethlisberger's eight. -- Jamison Hensley
Tier 3: (Almost) playoff locks
Indianapolis Colts (8-2)
Chances to make the playoffs: 96%
Chances to win the AFC South: 86.7%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 21.3%
The Colts should probably be higher, strictly from a numbers standpoint. The Colts are ranked first in EPA per play on offense and sixth on defense, driven by an elite running attack and quarterback Daniel Jones playing the best ball of his career. And they've added Sauce Gardner, giving Indianapolis a formidable cornerback group when Charvarius Ward returns. But I still can't shake the Jones factor -- and everything we've seen out of him before this season. Perhaps I would prefer any of the Tier 2 teams against the Colts if they were to meet in the playoffs. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Get their defense healthy and playing at the necessary level to confront the top quarterbacks come January. The Colts have invested a lot of resources on defense, and the trade deadline acquisition of Gardner shows they are serious about making a run this season. Now, it's time for results. Despite Indianapolis' offensive fireworks, its defense needs to hold up for a Super Bowl march. The Colts are fourth in the NFL with 29 sacks, but they're 26th in third-down defense. -- Stephen Holder
New England Patriots (8-2)
Chances to make the playoffs: 94.4%
Chances to win the AFC East: 63.1%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 8.9%
A lot has gone right for New England this season, from quarterback Drake Maye's breakout, veteran wide receiver Stefon Diggs playing well coming off a torn ACL last season, an excellent run defense, and getting surprising sack production out of edge rushers Harold Landry III and K'Lavon Chaisson. But they've also had a cushy schedule, as the Patriots entered Sunday having played the easiest schedule in the league thus far. New England has an easy path the rest of the way, too. The Patriots passed a big test with a win at the Bucs on Sunday. The real test will come in the postseason, which they are now almost assured to reach. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Reduce the number of hits and sacks on Maye. The Patriots' 35 sacks allowed are the second most in the NFL, behind only the Titans (38), and 12 of them came in Weeks 8 and 9. Maye has said some sacks during the recent spike are his fault, as he can do a better job protecting himself by getting rid of the ball. -- Mike Reiss
Denver Broncos (8-2)
Chances to make the playoffs: 91.6%
Chances to win the AFC West: 49.9%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 13%
It has been a shaky sophomore season for Bo Nix, who is ranked 18th in QBR despite the Broncos ranking fourth in pass block win rate. The defense, expected to be elite before the season, has done its job though: ranking second in EPA per play. Most importantly, getting eight wins in 10 games to start the season will make it extremely hard for Denver to miss the postseason. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Special teams improvement. With an inconsistent offense, a big part of Denver's playoff hopes will rest on whether its special teams can be more reliable in the big moments. The Broncos have had a field goal attempt blocked, ill-timed penalties, poor decisions on returns, a lost fumble on a muffed punt, substitution issues and have allowed a 72-yard kickoff return as well as a 45-yard punt return. Rookie punter Jeremy Crawshaw had his share of issues Thursday. That's far too many missteps for a team with playoff aspirations. -- Jeff Legwold
Tier 4: Likely in, barring a collapse
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
Chances to make the playoffs: 89.7%
Chances to win the NFC South: 87.7%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 8.5%
Quarterback Baker Mayfield's hot start to the season and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka's emergence as a serious Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate have the Buccaneers 14th in EPA per play despite a rash of injuries. That should be enough to get Tampa Bay, which leads the NFC South, back to the playoffs, and the Bucs have a manageable schedule the rest of the way. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Getting healthy on offense. Starting right tackle Luke Goedeke began his 21-day practice window this week. Running back Bucky Irving is running on his sprained foot but hasn't had any type of contact on his subluxated shoulder. Wide receiver Chris Godwin (fibula) is running as well. If they get back any of those players, it'll take some of the attention from rookie receiver Egbuka. Receivers Mike Evans (collarbone) and Jalen McMillan (neck) could also return, but there are no guarantees with them. -- Jenna Laine
Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)
Chances to make the playoffs: 75.6%
Chances to win the AFC West: 23.1%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 9.1%
Have the Chargers won enough to qualify for the playoffs despite losing both of their tackles for the season -- Rashawn Slater before the year began and Joe Alt in Week 9? Likely yes, particularly after beating the Steelers on Sunday. That win and the Jaguars' loss in Houston give the Chargers some cushion over potential wild-card competitors. But to make a playoff run, they'll need better play out of their offensive line, which has the worst pass block win rate in the league in plays this season without Alt. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Improve kickoff and punt return coverage. The Chargers' special teams have been among the league's worst, allowing the most kickoff return yards (1,203) and fourth-most punt return yards (198) entering Week 10. This unit used to be a strength, and struggles here could be the difference in how far the Chargers go this season. -- Kris Rhim
Tier 5: We're leaning yes
San Francisco 49ers (6-4)
Chances to make the playoffs: 85.8%
Chances to win the NFC West: 15.9%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 10.3%
Considering they've gotten only two games from quarterback Brock Purdy and lost their two best defensive players (edge rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner) for the season, it's kind of impressive that the 49ers are even this high. Their down-to-down metrics haven't even been that good! But they've weathered the storm and even if they haven't been the most efficient team, the six wins they've banked are huge. Playing without Bosa and Warner will be tough, but Purdy's eventual return will help -- as will a very soft schedule down the stretch. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Become a top-10 scoring offense. The Niners have consistently moved the ball, ranking 11th in yards per game (356.2), but they're 17th in the NFL in offensive points per game (22.0). Purdy (toe), receivers Ricky Pearsall (knee) and Brandon Aiyuk (knee) and starting offensive linemen Ben Bartch (ankle) and Jake Brendel (hamstring) could be back in the lineup soon. That would help them finish drives with touchdowns more frequently against a slate that ESPN's Football Power Index ranks as the seventh easiest over the final two months. -- Nick Wagoner
Tier 6: On the fringe of hope and despair
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)
Chances to make the playoffs: 56.1%
Chances to win the AFC North: 43.9%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 4.5%
The Aaron Rodgers experiment is probably going a little better than the Steelers could have reasonably hoped, and they're in a solid position in the standings even with their defense underperforming. Pittsburgh can make the postseason, but it'll need more defense than it got in the first half of the season, and more offense than it got in Sunday night's loss to the Chargers. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Play consistent defense. The Steelers have largely been boom-or-bust on defense through the first half of the season. Turnovers have often come in bunches -- five in a win against the Patriots, six in beating the Colts -- but the defense falters when the takeaways aren't there. The Steelers went a month between forced turnovers, and though they entered Week 10 tied for third with 27 sacks, they've had four games where they recorded two or fewer sacks. -- Brooke Pryor
Chicago Bears (6-3)
Chances to make the playoffs: 44.1%
Chances to win the NFC North: 11.3%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 2.4%
The offense has rebounded. From Week 5 to Week 9, the Bears' offense ranked third in EPA per play, fueled by a rushing attack that has bounced back in the second quarter of the season after struggling early. Caleb Williams' accuracy numbers improved from abysmal to merely below average -- which might be all the Bears need to be threatening. It's a tough path ahead, but Chicago's past wins and recent offensive efficiency give it a solid chance at the postseason.-- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Learn how to play a complete game. Four of Chicago's six wins have been nail-biters, with a blocked field goal attempt in Las Vegas, game-winning field goal in Washington, a 58-yard touchdown pass with 25 seconds to play in Cincinnati and Sunday's comeback over the Giants getting the Bears to 6-3. Chicago leads the NFL with 20 takeaways and has a top-8 scoring offense. If the Bears can close out opponents more convincingly, those close wins can turn into statement victories. -- Courtney Cronin
Caleb Williams manages to stay inbounds en route to the end zone as the Bears take a late lead vs. the Giants.
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)
Chances to make the playoffs: 41.8%
Chances to win the AFC South: 10.5%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 1.9%
The Jaguars' season has featured ups (beating the Chiefs!) and downs (quarterback Trevor Lawrence's inconsistent play and Jacksonville's blown lead against the Texans on Sunday) but through it all, the Jaguars are positioned for a postseason run. Jacksonville has played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL and has one of the easiest schedules the rest of the way. But Sunday's loss was costly -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Fewer dropped passes. The Jaguars lead the NFL with 20 drops, including five by Brian Thomas Jr. They have killed drives and cost the Jaguars a chance to win at least one more game (Week 2 vs. Cincinnati). That was one of the main reasons the Jaguars acquired Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline. He has only 11 drops in 99 career games and has never had more than two in a season. GM James Gladstone called Meyers' sure-handedness his superpower. -- Mike DiRocco
Tier 7: Stranger things have happened
Houston Texans (4-5)
Chances to make the playoffs: 14.5%
Chances to win the AFC South: 2.9%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 1.2%
As expected, the offensive line has been a major issue. But the defense has been dominant and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. is hovering around Defensive Player of the Year candidacy, a big reason why I'm not ready to rule out Houston yet. The improbable comeback win Sunday against the Jaguars breathed some life into the Texans' playoff probability. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Offensive coordinator Nick Caley getting his unit rolling. The offense was supposed to improve from where it was last season under Bobby Slowik, but the unit has only scored 21.3 points per game, barely exceeding the 20.5 points per game Houston tallied in 2024. If Caley can't help the offense score more points and be more explosive, he might not be around next season. -- DJ Bien-Aime
Sheldon Rankins recovers the fumble from Trevor Lawrence and takes it to the house to seal the Texans' 36-29 comeback win over the Jaguars.
Carolina Panthers (5-5)
Chances to make the playoffs: 16.6%
Chances to win the NFC South: 10%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 0.4%
There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of the Panthers. After losing to the Saints on Sunday, the Panthers' record not only dropped to .500, but their point differential fell to minus-45. Carolina's place in the standings is an aberration compared to its quality -- the defense struggles mightily against the pass, fueled by a lack of a pass rush -- but it earned enough early wins for a chance to somehow sneak in later. I wouldn't bet on it, though. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Stay in playoff contention. The Panthers entered the season hoping to be a playoff contender down the stretch. They're close to accomplishing that. Now, it's up to a defense, which has improved from worst in the NFL in most major categories to top 15, to keep games close enough to let QB Bryce Young, who is 4-0 in one-score games this season, do his thing. It won't be easy, as Carolina faces a tough stretch that includes the 49ers, Rams, Seahawks and Buccaneers (twice) -- David Newton
Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
Chances to make the playoffs: 8.6%
Chances to win the NFC North: 1.8%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 0.5%
Minnesota's season looked on the verge of being over before it upset the Lions in Week 9. And it did so with J.J. McCarthy. The second-year quarterback was decent enough in that contest to give the Vikings some hope that 2025 might not be a wasted season. There's still a large hill to climb, especially given Sunday's loss to the Ravens and the Vikings' difficult schedule the rest of the way, but the playoffs are not totally out of play. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: See what they have at QB. The Vikings entered this season hoping to thread a needle. They wanted to develop McCarthy in real time while also using their $350 million roster to compete for a playoff berth. Both remain possible, but the former is more realistic and achievable. The franchise's top priority is to get McCarthy as many snaps as possible during the second half of the season. -- Kevin Seifert
Tier 8: Yes, I'm telling you there's a (slight) chance
Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1)
Chances to make the playoffs: 8.3%
Chances to win the NFC East: 4.8%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 0.8%
Don't tell Jerry Jones, but his foolish trade for defensive tackle Quinnen Williams is unlikely to be the difference between the Cowboys making the playoffs and not. Dallas did have potential this season, especially knowing how well Dak Prescott has played (second in QBR, 75.2) and how well the George Pickens acquisition has worked out. But the defense has let them down and the Williams deal happened too late to move the 2025 needle. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: The defense plays to the league average for the final eight games. The Cowboys are 31st in yards and points allowed per game and on pace to have the worst third-down defense since the 1982 Chiefs. If the acquisitions of Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson, plus the return of linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and cornerback Shavon Revel Jr. from injury, can jump-start the defense, there will be reason for hope for 2026. That could prevent Dallas from having to hire a fourth defensive coordinator in four seasons. -- Todd Archer
Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)
Chances to make the playoffs: 6.8%
Chances to win the AFC North: 5.2%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 0.6%
Three things went very, very wrong for the Bengals this season. First, quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a long-term injury. Second, backup QB Jake Browning imploded after being capable in the past. Third, even after trading for Joe Flacco (and having him play well as a Bengal!), the league's worst defense (in terms of EPA per play) hasn't stopped anyone. All the Bengals can do now is go on a run to give themselves a chance for when Burrow could return at the end of the season. But that's a prayer, at best. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Figure out if any of the young defensive players are good. For the second straight season, Cincinnati is trying to identify core defensive players to build around. The Bengals have used 11 top-100 draft picks on defensive players since 2021, and it's unclear if any deserve a lucrative second contract. Edge Joseph Ossai, who signed a one-year deal in the offseason, and cornerbacks Dax Hill and DJ Turner II have been promising. But the Bengals need much more after spending big on key offensive players. -- Ben Baby
Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
Chances to make the playoffs: 5.1%
Chances to win the NFC South: 2%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 0.2%
An up-and-down year from second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and a middling season from their blitz-heavy defense has resulted in the Falcons landing in third place in a weak NFC South. Atlanta has an easy schedule the rest of the way, but it likely won't be enough to vault the Falcons into the playoffs. I'm going to go ahead and guess Atlanta regrets dealing its 2026 first-round pick to move up in the 2025 draft. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Continuing to develop Penix. This is a playoff-or-bust season for an organization that has not reached the postseason since 2017, tied for the second-longest drought in the NFL. Things are not looking great on that front. But the Falcons' second-year quarterback has shown flashes of brilliance amid an inconsistent season. If Penix develops and becomes a top-12 quarterback in the league, Atlanta's bitter taste would be lessened. -- Marc Raimondi
Washington Commanders (3-7)
Chances to make the playoffs: 1.1%
Chances to win the NFC East: 0.9%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 0.1%
It would take two miracles for Washington to make the playoffs. The first would be Jayden Daniels recovering quickly from his dislocated elbow injury -- which Dan Quinn said Friday will not require surgery -- then go on a crazy run to earn a playoff spot for the second. Even if Daniels is able to return early, I'm skeptical, as the Commanders' defense hasn't been good enough. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Better play from the defense and healthy receivers, most notably Terry McLaurin. McLaurin and Noah Brown, Washington's expected No. 3 wideout, have missed a combined 12 games, and the offense has scored 47 points the past three weeks. But the defense has been abysmal and there is little confidence that the Commanders have the right players in place for the future. Washington's defense ranks 29th in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed per game. It must be more competitive. -- John Keim
Arizona Cardinals (3-6)
Chances to make the playoffs: 2.3%
Chances to win the NFC West: <0.1%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: <0.1%
There was some hope entering the season that Arizona might be able to pull itself out of mediocrity, but that never materialized. In fact, the season went sideways enough that the team (maybe?) benched Kyler Murray (now on IR) in favor of Jacoby Brissett. The Cardinals aren't a bad team, but they're not good, either. So they won't be making up for their first-half record in the second half of the season. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Win more games than they lose. It might sound simple and sophomoric, but after starting the season 2-5, Arizona must either try to win as many games as possible or play for a high draft pick. With Brissett now at quarterback for at least the next three games, the Cardinals' offense should play well. And with Arizona's defense playing at a high level, the Cardinals are in a position to pull off surprise wins and build positive momentum. -- Josh Weinfuss
Tier 9: Rest up for 2026
Miami Dolphins (3-7)
Chances to make the playoffs: 0.3%
The vibes were bad in Miami heading into the season, and it only went downhill from there. Tyreek Hill suffered a season-ending injury, Tua Tagovailoa has played poorly, the losses have piled up and the Dolphins (logically) dealt Jaelan Phillips at the trade deadline. This is a team with decisions to make about its future, even with its unlikely victory over Buffalo on Sunday. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Go .500 over their final eight games. This probably runs contrary to many fans' goal of a high pick in next year's draft. And yes, the Dolphins still have games remaining against the Patriots, Steelers and Buccaneers -- but they also play the Saints, Commanders, Jets and Bengals. Continuing to show fight in a lost season would go a long way toward coach Mike McDaniel being retained, with Sunday being an encouraging start. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
New York Giants (2-8)
Chances to make the playoffs: <0.1%
On one hand, rookie Jaxson Dart has displayed real promise when healthy -- he ranks 14th in QBR (63.2) -- and the pass rush ought to still be a concern for opponents. Part of my -- and FPI's -- relative confidence stems from the fact that the Giants had played the hardest schedule of anyone entering Sunday. But the eight losses -- including Sunday's to the Bears -- are far too much to overcome. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Be respectable and keep Dart healthy. Their playoff percentage says it all. The rest of this season is about competing and developing Dart. His success will go a long way in determining the future of the franchise. But for Dart to learn on the field, he must remain healthy. He had taken the second-most total hits (84) since becoming the Giants' starter in Week 4, and he was knocked out of Sunday's game due to a concussion. -- Jordan Raanan
New Orleans Saints (2-8)
Chances to make the playoffs: 0.3%
Chances to win the NFC South: 0.3%
This always looked like it would be a nothing season for New Orleans. And that's exactly what it's been for the Saints. The rest of the year can be spent evaluating rookie Tyler Shough to find out if he's a potential franchise QB, or if they ought to look to start over with a first-round quarterback in the 2026 draft. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Develop Shough. The Saints already made a quarterback change, and if they continue losing games, they could be looking at one of the top picks in the 2026 draft. Their interest in bringing in another quarterback in the offseason depends on Shough's success. If he can provide some hope, the Saints could use their first-round pick to address other needs -- Katherine Terrell
New York Jets (2-7)
Chances to make the playoffs: 0.2%
The Jets' season was over long before they dealt Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline. But the moves signaled that the Jets are rightfully prioritizing 2026 and beyond. One way or another they'll need a new quarterback, but they also have the draft picks over the next couple years to support whoever that QB ends up being. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Finish as a top-20 scoring offense, something they haven't done since 2015. The Jets are 26th, so the goal is within reach. Unlike the defense, which has been ripped apart by the recent trades of Gardner and Williams, the offense remains intact. Of course, QB Justin Fields will be evaluated over the final nine games, but it probably won't matter because the Jets will likely make a QB move in the offseason, especially with their newfound draft capital. -- Rich Cimini
Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
Chances to make the playoffs: 0.1%
You could see the vision heading into the season. Geno Smith teaming up with Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly -- that could work! It hasn't. Smith has been dreadful, ranking 30th in QBR, and the Raiders rank 32nd in EPA per designed carry despite drafting running back Ashton Jeanty with the No. 6 overall pick. Add in a subpar defense (albeit one that held the Broncos to 10 points on Thursday) and this team is going nowhere. The Raiders face serious questions about their direction after this season. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Improvement across the board. A lot needs to happen for the Raiders to turn around their season, but the offense needs to build on its Week 9 performance against the Jaguars. That marked the first game this season that the Raiders scored more than 25 points. The defense also has to be better at stopping drives. The Raiders have allowed a third-down conversion rate of 45% -- 29th in the league. -- Ryan McFadden
Cleveland Browns (2-7)
Chances to make the playoffs: <0.1%
The Browns' 2025 season has served as a waiting game on a long shot -- could either rookie quarterback develop into someone they could play long term? So far, it doesn't look like it. The good news is the rest of the draft class has looked pretty great: LB Carson Schwesinger, TE Harold Fannin Jr. and RB Quinshon Judkins became instant-impact players and first-round DT Mason Graham has had his moments, too. That will help going forward, when the Browns take another swing at quarterback. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Get a firm evaluation of rookie QBs Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. The Browns are sticking with Gabriel, who has started five games and recorded a 32.5 QBR, which ranks 31st out of 32 qualifying passers. At some point, though, Cleveland is expected to play Sanders, who is QB2. The Browns' rookie class has impressed, but getting a long look at both passers will help guide their offseason path. -- Daniel Oyefusi
Tennessee Titans (1-8)
Chances to make the playoffs: <0.1%
A lost first season with Cam Ward brought the end of Brian Callahan's tenure. They'll reset with a new coach next season and hope he can get more out of Ward. One piece of good news -- the Titans have boatloads of cap space, which should result in a free agent spending frenzy to bolster the roster. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Develop Ward. Ward's growth should be the focal point for the remainder of the season. The Titans would benefit from helping him gain momentum going into Year 2 by ending his rookie season on a high note. Ward is still working to make adjustments to his mechanics and footwork. There should also be emphasis on growing his feel for the game and understanding that a checkdown can be his friend when the deep shots aren't there. -- Turron Davenport