Week 12 is in the books! It was a great week for almost upsets, as the Giants led the Lions for much of their game, the Colts had the Chiefs exactly where they wanted them, and the Jets led the Ravens at the half. No lead was safe, including the 21-point one the Eagles -- typically a paragon of lead management -- built against the Cowboys.
Winning is hard in the NFL. Harder still? Writing NFL columns. Every Tuesday, I'll spin the previous week of NFL action forward, looking at what the biggest storylines mean and what comes next. We'll seek measured reactions to everyone's overreactions, celebrate the exciting stuff that nobody is appreciating and highlight what you might have missed Sunday and Monday.
There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun.
Jump to a section:
Big Thing: Sanders' first start
Second Take: AFC South is wide open
Things I think I think: Cowboys, Bengals, etc.
Mailbag: Answering questions from ... you
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 12 stats
The Big Thing: Cleveland needs to see more of Sanders
Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous slate of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season? This week, we're looking at the highs and lows of Shedeur Sanders' first NFL start and whether the Browns should roll with him the rest of the season.
On Sunday, the Browns started their third quarterback of the season when fifth-round rookie Sanders took the opening snap against the Raiders. Sixty minutes later, the Browns had their third win of the season, too, beating the Raiders 24-10 for their first road victory since Week 2 of last season. For the first time in 435 days, the Browns experienced a victorious plane ride back to Cleveland. That's a great feeling.
Sanders was tagged with the start only because Dillon Gabriel -- also a rookie, drafted two rounds before Sanders -- suffered a concussion in Cleveland's Week 11 loss to the Ravens and was inactive. In most contexts, a spot start for a late-drafted rookie QB2 would garner little national interest. But because of Sanders' productive college career, precipitous fall in the draft and royal NFL lineage, there were a few more eyeballs on this one.
To grade Sanders' performance Sunday, let's strip away the baubles and trappings of his career arc and focus on only his contemporaries.
Since 2000, 43 quarterbacks drafted in Round 5 or later (including undrafted free agents) have started a game in their rookie season. As you can imagine, most of these players were in Sanders' shoes -- QB2s or QB3s forced into late-season spot starts on bad football teams. Recent qualifiers include Spencer Rattler, Tyson Bagent, Tommy DeVito and Clayton Tune.
Here's the average performance of the 42 quarterbacks who preceded Sanders in their first career starts, relative to Sanders' performance against the Raiders.
Depending on how you slice it, you could call Sanders' game better than average ... or worse than average, which would of course be great for the discourse.
The rosier outlook highlights that Sanders won his game, vaulting fifth-round-or-later QBs to 14-29 in their first career starts. He averaged almost 10 yards per dropback, second only to 2001 Todd Bouman in this quarterback cohort. Of course, most of that yardage output came on two plays: a deep shot to Isaiah Bond in the first quarter and a huge catch-and-run screen to Dylan Sampson in the fourth quarter. But that's the nature of the offense the Browns ran for Sanders and have run for much of this season; it's all about YAC and explosive opportunities. Sanders had an explosive pass rate of 19%, second only to Gabriel's Week 7 performance against the Dolphins among Browns QB starts this season.
The throw to Bond was a real peanut. Sanders was at his best in college throwing on the move to his right, a vantage point where sees the field well and takes aggressive shots, even at the expense of being hit. With only five Browns truly in protection here, Sanders is responsible for buying time against the extra rusher. The Raiders are playing Cover 0 behind the blitz, so Bond is running to wide-open space so long as he beats his man off the line. Sanders makes the first rusher miss and uncorks a beautiful throw on the move.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) November 25, 2025
Sanders had only two completions further than 9 yards downfield in this game. That was the first, and here's the second -- a similar play. When DE Maxx Crosby spikes inside the tackle, Sanders rolls to his right. The Raiders bust the coverage, failing to pass off wide receiver Jerry Jeudy as he races across the field. Easy pitch and catch for an explosive gain ... before the fumble.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) November 25, 2025
Because of these two chunk gains (and the 66 yards gained on the Sampson screen), Sanders' yardage output looks respectable. But by first down/touchdown rate and success rate -- which weigh down-to-down consistency far more heavily than explosive gains -- we see that the average Sanders dropback was not so positive. Both of his numbers come in below the average for a late-drafted rookie in his first career start. Remember, he's going against the historical numbers of luminaries such as Jeff Tuel, Zach Mettenberger and Spergon Wynn here.
That said, Sanders' down-to-down consistency actually matches what we've come to expect from Browns quarterbacks so far this season. Compare Sanders' start to Gabriel's run and Joe Flacco's tenure, and he actually produced a better first down/touchdown rate. Where he failed in dropback success rate, he made up for in explosive pass rate. He was off target more often but also threw downfield more.
Sanders also faced an average third-down distance of 11.6 yards, and 10 of his 21 dropbacks came on third down. This invites a more aggressive play style and accordingly volatile results.
The smart thing to do with all of this information would be ... absolutely nothing. One start against the Raiders' defense does not provide a clear picture. Take out the Sampson screen, and Sanders' numbers plummet. Take away the Jeudy fumble, and his EPA per dropback jumps. The sample is too small to tell us anything concrete.
The sample on Gabriel (six games) is significantly larger. We can say with confidence that Gabriel struggles to escape NFL speed and size in the pocket, push the football down the field and create outside of structure. Of 36 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks this season, Gabriel is last in dropback success rate, yards per dropback and air yards per attempt. He nickel-and-dimes in an offense that can't sustain that play style. This was also how he played in college, as he lacks the physical traits to consistently make throws downfield or extend dropbacks under pressure. This is who he is.
Because we know what we know about Gabriel to this point, it'd be nice to learn more about Sanders across the rest of the season. The Browns will invariably look for a new QB1 next offseason, but with good play this season, Sanders could work his way up the QB depth chart from his August beginnings at QB4.
We need to learn more about how Sanders performs in the red zone. Despite Cleveland's 24 points, Sanders did not attempt a pass in the red area, as the Browns opted for their Wildcat package (something they also did at times with Gabriel at QB) in scoring position. In the red zone, NFL windows get tighter and throws must be made faster -- something Sanders struggled with on Sunday. His interception is a good example.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) November 25, 2025
Sanders is right to throw the curl to Jeudy as edge rusher Charles Snowden initially clears the window while moving with the running back -- but the ball has to be out now. Notice how Jeudy turns for the ball, then pats his feet for a beat as he waits for it to arrive. Notice Sanders' feet as well. On a one-step drop, Sanders needs to land on his back foot ready to throw immediately. Instead, he hops to reset his foot and begin his throwing motion.
This isn't nitpicking at all. Sanders does not have an above-average arm, especially when it comes to generating velocity on a line. In order to succeed at throwing into tight windows in the NFL, his timing needs to be impeccable.
On a later throw on the move, Sanders' lack of premier arm talent appeared again. This is the sort of throw that Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones have been feasting on this season -- a boot to the left.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) November 25, 2025
It's hard to get the full body into a throw like this, running opposite from the QB's dominant hand. Sanders has a tighter trunk than most NFL QBs, so it's difficult for him to get any snap from his hips to kick-start his throwing motion. This ball is all arm, and accordingly sails high and soft above the tight window in which he's trying to hit Cedric Tillman.
This throw serves as a reminder that even in those predraft moments when we believed Sanders was a first-round quarterback, he was so despite athletic limitations. He is not particularly fast, big, physical, loose or strong-armed. Belief in his pro projection was predicated on intangibles -- toughness, poise, vision, creativity -- and those were all on display against the Raiders. But he's fighting an uphill battle against dimensions and physics.
It's hard to call Sanders' debut start good, but I wouldn't necessarily call it bad, either. I've watched plenty of late-drafted quarterbacks see the field in the past decade or so, and a few of those games have deeply offended me. (Looking at you, 2017 Nathan Peterman.) Sanders' game didn't.
Sanders did more than enough to earn further starts for a 3-8 Browns team that is deploying a historic amount of rookies and clearly building for the future. Gabriel has cleared concussion protocol but is slated to back up Sanders in Week 13, as the Browns continue investigating what Sanders is capable of at the NFL level. That doesn't mean Sanders is the starter for the rest of the season. It doesn't mean Sanders is in the QB1 battle next year. And it doesn't mean the Browns were wrong to start Flacco and then Gabriel before Sanders (though I personally wouldn't have started Gabriel over him). This just means Sanders has earned another start.
All detailed analysis aside, the Browns won a game Sunday, which is very exciting. The most exciting part? They got this win with a whopping 84.2% of their scrimmage yards coming from rookie contributors. Bond and Sampson authored explosive plays with their cork-popping speed. Harold Fannin Jr. (four catches, 40 yards) continued to break a preposterous number of tackles for a tight end. He is one of the league's most unique young players, with the ceiling of a high-volume TE1 in the passing game. Running back Quinshon Judkins (16 carries, 47 yards, two touchdowns) continues to grind out physical runs and create hidden yardage, especially in the red zone.
Browns rookies accounted for 100% of the team's passing yards, 100% of its rushing yards (114%, actually) and 75% of its receiving yards. According to Elias Sports Bureau, this has happened in only one other game since the 1970 merger. It was done by the 1974 Chargers, and they had 17 rounds of draft picks to work with, compared to the seven we have today. Hats off to Andrew Berry and the Browns' personnel staff.
Stephen A. Smith, Cam Newton and Dan Orlovsky get tense when debating whether Shedeur Sanders should've beeN taken out at the goal line during the Browns' win over the Raiders.
The coaching staff had a great game, too. Jim Schwartz's defense sacked Raiders QB Geno Smith not once, not twice, but 10 times. Ten! That's only the second 10-plus-sack game in the past seven seasons. Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees got the ball in Fannin's and Sampson's hands behind the line of scrimmage quickly, rolling Sanders out and chipping Crosby to protect Sanders from his worst demon at Colorado: taking too many sacks. This all happened with rookies playing everywhere along the offense -- and with rookies come plenty of execution errors.
The young Browns offense has bright spots galore, and the defense continues to shred. With a real quarterback, the arrow in Cleveland would strongly point up. That real quarterback probably isn't on the roster right now, but the only way to find out is to play more games. San Francisco visits Cleveland next Sunday, travelling to the Eastern time zone on a short week with a defense that has struggled lately. Let's stack some wins.
Second Take: The AFC South is wide open
ESPN's "First Take" is known for, well, providing the first take on things -- the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather where I'll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view.
The Colts have an offense problem, and more specifically, they have a passing game problem. Three of Daniel Jones' worst four outings by EPA per dropback have been in the past three games (against the Steelers, Falcons and Chiefs).
A few dominoes are falling in the Colts' offense, and the chain reaction is leading to bigger and bigger disappointments. The first is a crashing back down to Earth for Jones in one key metric: pressure-to-sack rate. This metric, which tracks the rate at which a quarterback turns his pressured dropbacks into sacks, is typically quite sticky. It had been relatively stable across Jones' career ... until the first half of the 2025 season, when it suddenly plummeted to league-best levels.
Daniel Jones' pressure to sack rate (5-game averages)
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) November 24, 2025
Was pretty consistently around 20% for his career in New York.
First eight weeks with the Colts: dropped below 10%.
Last few weeks with the Colts: right back up to Giants levels again pic.twitter.com/qBd713vW9l
This issue is most obvious in clear dropback situations -- shotgun snaps, passing downs or dropbacks with only five men in protection. The Colts were getting five receivers into the concept at a rate well above league average, and the O-line was holding up well even with two new interior starters (center Tanor Bortolini, guard Matt Goncalves). But against the Titans' great interior rush in Week 8, and especially against the Steelers' speedy outside rush in Week 9, Jones' pocket poise began to crumble.
In response, the Colts have completely tossed the five-man protection concepts out of the game plan. In Week 10, the Falcons blitzed Jones mercilessly, forcing running back Jonathan Taylor and the Colts' tight ends to stay in to pick up additional rushers. When the Chiefs dialed up similar heat in Week 12, the Colts kept seven-plus blockers in on 34.4% of Jones' dropbacks -- the highest rate for any team in any game this season.
With fewer routes in the concept, the Colts' preposterously deep room of pass catchers becomes easier to account for in coverage. When Jones could pick his man coverage matchup across the board of Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, Michael Pittman Jr. and Tyler Warren, the defense was likely to lose over time. But now that eligible receivers are getting stuck in pass protection, the Colts become easier to defend.
Of course, blitzing the Colts means removing second-level defenders and pursuit players. Should Taylor break into the third level, or the Colts hit a well-timed screen, it's off to the races. This is where the superb tackling of the Chiefs came into play Sunday. Safety Bryan Cook had a touchdown-saving tackle on Taylor in a one-on-one open-field situation. Cornerback Trent McDuffie corralled a steamrolling Warren on a screen in the red zone. Ask the Falcons -- who deployed a similar game plan -- what happened to them when Taylor finally got to the third level.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) November 25, 2025
As Jones becomes more scared of pressure, Colts coach Shane Steichen becomes more scared of Jones. Typically one of the league's most aggressive decision-makers, Steichen did exactly what one cannot do in Arrowhead: bypass fourth-down opportunities and keep the margin close. The Colts were faced with four fourth-down decisions that Next Gen Stats characterized as toss-ups. Steichen lined the offense up for only one, and Goncalves took a false start before the ball was even snapped. On the other three, Steichen kicked the field goal or punted.
You can feel the trust eroding in Indianapolis. Jones is getting the ball out faster and underneath more frequently as he loses trust in his offensive line. This was the first game all season in which he didn't attempt a deep pass, despite the fact that the Chiefs' safeties were only 9.6 yards off the line of scrimmage -- the second-closest safeties have been to the line in any game this season. As Jones' trust in his line falters, so does Steichen's in his quarterback. The once unstoppable Colts offense has become mortal.
The offense isn't fully solved, of course. Taylor still breaks that third-level tackle more often than he doesn't. But the Colts are slumping at the worst moment. After Week 8, Indianapolis was 7-1 with a 2½-game lead over the Jaguars (4-3) and 3½-game lead over the Texans (3-4). During the Colts' 1-2 stretch, Houston has gone 3-1 with a statement win over the Bills, and the Jaguars have gone 3-1 with two overtime victories. Jacksonville's only loss was to Houston in Week 10.
Indianapolis (8-3) is now one game ahead of Jacksonville (7-4) and two games ahead of Houston (6-5). It is still very much in the driver's seat of its own playoff destiny. The problem is that Jacksonville and Houston are in their own driver's seats as well.
The Colts have not played Jacksonville nor Houston yet this season. In other words, both challengers can take control of the division away from the Colts by sweeping them; the Jaguars would be one game up in the win-loss column, and the Texans would be tied (but win the tiebreaker).
Of course, there are other games besides the intradivisional contests. But the news doesn't get better for Indianapolis. Besides the Jaguars and the Texans, Indianapolis faces the Seahawks (8-3) and the 49ers (8-4). To this point in the season, the Colts have had the third-easiest schedule by ESPN's Football Power Index's rankings. From this point on, it's the third hardest.
I have my doubts about the Jaguars and Texans as comprehensive teams and legitimate AFC contenders. I voiced some concerns about the Jaguars last week, and nothing about their Week 12 game against the Cardinals on Sunday has silenced those worries. It marked the Jaguars' second overtime win in four weeks against vastly inferior opponents (they also beat the Raiders), and Jacksonville beat the Cardinals despite being on the wrong end of a 4-0 turnover differential. They're the first team in NFL history to win a game with such a turnover spread.
The Jaguars haven't lost the games they should have lost, and now they're in striking distance of the Colts. They've got wiggle room, too. Outside of their two remaining games against the Colts, Jacksonville catches the Broncos but also the Jets and the Titans twice. The Jaguars' remaining schedule is the fourth-easiest by FPI's projections.
Remember, Indianapolis is fending off multiple challengers. The Texans play the Colts twice but otherwise get the Chiefs, Cardinals, Raiders and Chargers. That's not nearly as easy as Jacksonville, but all four of those games are winnable for a team touting a truly elite defense, especially if the return of quarterback C.J. Stroud to the starting lineup sparks the offense. Stroud remains in the concussion protocol in anticipation of the Texans and Colts' first contest this upcoming Sunday. His availability is not guaranteed.
But the offense is not the straw that stirs Houston's drink. We throw the descriptor "elite" around far too often, but it is actually an accurate description of the Texans' defense. Opposing passing games have a dropback success rate of 38% against the Texans, the second-lowest number of the past 13 seasons. The only number lower is 37.9%, which belongs to the similarly elite 2025 Broncos defense. Of 512 total seasons since 2010, the Texans are 15th in opposing EPA per dropback, 23rd in points per drive allowed and 26th in series conversion rate. All of those are 95th percentile or better. That's elite.
The Texans' defense is the best unit left in the AFC South, and as demonstrated Thursday night, it can win any game against any opponent so long as the offense delivers an average outing. One can expect the Texans to dial up the late-down man coverage and blitz packages -- that has been a hallmark of DeMeco Ryans' defense for years. Jones will be a week further removed from his calf issue, which should help, and Steichen's Colts have always ran the ball well against Ryans' Texans. But if Jones continues to wilt under pressure, there are few defenses better positioned to expose that than Houston's unit.
Through eight weeks, the Colts looked like one of football's best teams. They shoved their chips in the middle at the trade deadline. But things change quickly in the NFL, and now their grip on the division is in serious jeopardy. Four divisional games in six weeks makes every Colts contest a can't-miss event going forward. Don't be surprised if that Week 18 game against Houston ends up a photo finish for the AFC South crown.
Bart Scott and Peter Schrager discuss how dominant Will Anderson Jr. and the Texans' defense were against the Bills.
Things I think I think
There are things I think -- the Packers will be fine; the Lions won't be. Then there are things I think I think. They're like things I think, but even more tentative. I cannot be held accountable if they end up totally wrong, as I don't even think them yet. Shoutout to Peter King, the original Think I Thinker.
The Ravens will win the AFC North, but it won't matter. It was fun to believe in the 1-5 Ravens, who got QB Lamar Jackson back and beat up on a bad schedule to reclaim control of the AFC North. But Jackson is clearly playing hurt and the Ravens' passing game is totally toothless this season. WR Zay Flowers remains an incomplete player; TE Isaiah Likely and WR Rashod Bateman have not emerged; TE Mark Andrews is getting older. The Ravens have yet to play a complete game of offensive football this season, and the clock is well past ticking to that point. Don't be surprised if they lose to the Bengals on Thanksgiving.
The Bengals' defense is good. OK, not really. But Cincinnati's defense has had its two most impressive games in back-to-back weeks. It was solid against the Steelers in Week 11, though the Bengals' young linebackers' tackling issues in space remains a glaring issue. The Bengals were even better against Drake Maye and the Patriots on Sunday, suffering a very respectable loss to an MVP candidate. CB DJ Turner II has been a rock-solid CB1, and defensive tackles B.J. Hill and T.J. Slaton are improving the run defense.
The Cowboys' defense is good. This one I kind of do believe. Since Week 9, the Cowboys are generating a positive EPA per play on defense and surrendering a success rate of only 44.8% -- league average is 42.8% over the same stretch. Good news for Jerry Jones: They've given up 69.7 rushing yards per game, the fewest in the league in that stretch. The amount of talent infused midseason via trade deadline (DT Quinnen Williams, LB Logan Wilson) and returns from injury (safeties Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson, LB DeMarvion Overshown and CB Shavon Revel Jr.) has elevated this group to acceptably average. That, plus a top-eight offense, can make some noise in the NFC playoff picture.
Damien Woody and Rex Ryan react to the Cowboys' comeback victory over the Eagles.
The Patriots lost the AFC on Sunday. Big, big injury news out of New England. Defensive tackle Milton Williams was already down because of a high ankle sprain, and fellow defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga (who has been an excellent role player) left Sunday's game because of a chest injury. Rookie LG Jared Wilson also has a high ankle sprain and is week-to-week; rookie LT Will Campbell has an MCL sprain and is out for a few weeks at least. Even if none of these injuries are season ending, it's hard to see the Patriots keeping pace with the Broncos for the top seed in the AFC -- and these players will likely be less than 100% when they return. The best playoff teams are often the healthiest, and that's not New England after Sunday.
The Eagles won't win a playoff game. Philadelphia's winning formula since the start of 2024 was simple: don't turn the ball over, run the football, play elite defense. The formula does not work without all three components, and the Eagles can't do the second anymore. Guard Landon Dickerson and center Cam Jurgens are playing remarkably worse football than they did last season because of lingering injuries, and right guard Tyler Steen is a few rungs below Mekhi Becton in running game impact. Now Fred Johnson is in for right tackle Lane Johnson. If the Eagles can't run the ball, they can't ice out second-half leads or control pace. They're one-and-done.
Brock Purdy is not healthy enough to play over Mac Jones. We're two games back into the Purdy experience, and his inability to drive the football is stark. Purdy was 1-for-7 throwing the ball 10-plus yards downfield on Monday, and of those six incompletions, three were interceptions. I understand why Purdy is pushing himself back onto the field -- Jones was playing quite well! -- but he simply cannot access enough of the field to achieve his preferred play style.
From y'all
The best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime -- but especially on Monday each week -- to ask a question and potentially get it answered here.
From PM: "Why will JSN reach 2k receiving yards and why won't JSN reach 2k receiving yards? Feels like he has the best chance at this point compared to Tyreek in '23 and Kupp in '21 but is getting significantly less chatter."
Great question. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is averaging 119.4 receiving yards per game (absurd, bonkers, preposterous), has already set the franchise's single-season receiving yardage mark and is on pace for 2,030 receiving yards this season. Such a year would break Calvin Johnson's single-season record of 1,964 and, of course, stand alone as a 2,000-yard season.
He will because the Seahawks should have to pass more down the stretch. Seattle has one of the lowest pass rates in football, yet Smith-Njigba still averages ONE HUNDRED AND NINETEEN POINT FOUR receiving yards per game because of his outsized target share. Smith-Njigba owns 37.5% of the team's targets, which is the highest percentage since Brandon Marshall saw a towering 40.3% for Chicago in 2012.
Seattle has nursed large second-half leads for most of its games this season, but the home stretch might force the Seahawks into more shootouts. They end the season against the Colts, Rams, Panthers and 49ers -- all teams currently with .500 or better records. They'll likely have to play their starters through Week 18 as they vie with the Rams for the NFC West championship.
If Darnold goes from his current pace of 27 pass attempts per game to, say, 32 pass attempts (the NFL average), those additional 30 attempts spell another 11 targets for Smith-Njigba. At 12.2 yards per target -- Smith-Njigba's current pace -- that's another 133 yards. It could be the difference.
He won't because the defensive energy of every Seahawks opponent from now until February will be spent on slowing him down. Without question, Smith-Njigba is the lynchpin of the Seahawks' offense. He creates their explosive plays, gets Darnold out of jams when pressured and converts third downs. And because Smith-Njigba is on Calvin Johnson pace, he should begin getting Calvin Johnson treatment. Until Rashid Shaheed and Cooper Kupp prove otherwise, Smith-Njigba should be the most double-covered player in football.
Not every team will be successful. But it takes just one quiet game for Smith-Njigba to fall off his 2,000-yard pace. He has to be perfect down the stretch.
From Easton: "What's your temperature on Cam Ward's future?"
Very warm! Ward had one of the best games against Seattle's defense that any quarterback has had this season. He gets to play fast and loose, as his team is always down multiple scores and requires big plays to stay alive, and that aggressive play style invites bad sacks and risky throws. But Ward can make all of the throws, his feel for rapidly-closing windows downfield is excellent, and he has the movement traits to become a better sack avoider, a la Caleb Williams.
I'm buying stock on Ward -- 2026 head coach Klint Kubiak will get him right.
From Hector: "On a scale of Theranos to Enron, how fraudulent are these teams: Bears, Pats, Colts, Bucs?"
From most to least fraudulent: Bears, Bucs, Colts, Pats
Adam Schefter reports that the Patriots are optimistic that Will Campbell won't miss the rest of the season.
From Jim: "Caleb Williams is good -- he needs to fix what more than anything to be great?"
His receivers' hands.
OK, seriously: just consistency. He has improved week over week and already has multiple special plays a game. We like to believe that when players become "good," they eliminate all of their egregiously bad plays, but it simply isn't true. I watched Jared Goff sail a crossing route over the middle of the field Sunday that would have been clipped 40 times over if it were Williams, but because we're collectively confident Goff is good and not collectively confident that Williams is, that play gets waived away while Williams' mistake gets scrutinized.
Williams will always have a few bad plays a game, as every quarterback does. As he smooths out his play style and generates more chemistry with his receivers, that number will decline. He'll continue stacking wins and good games, and we'll know that he's a good player. The upcoming game against the Eagles' defense might be ugly -- they're not a great matchup for the Bears -- but Williams is good and becoming great.
Next Ben Stats
NFL Next Gen Stats are unique and insightful nuggets of data that are gleaned from tracking chips and massive databases. Next Ben Stats are usually numbers I made up. Both are below.
51%: That's how often the Falcons were under center in Week 11, Kirk Cousins' first start of 2025. This makes no sense at all!
If you haven't been as dialed in on the Falcons' quarterback alignment arc as I have been (good for you), here's what's happened.
2024 offseason: The Falcons sign free agent Kirk Cousins, who is coming off an Achilles tear but generally shredded in the Vikings' offense (which featured a heavy amount of under-center, play-action passing). New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson hails from Sean McVay's coaching tree, which also relies heavily on under-center, play-action dropbacks. We all think the Falcons will go under center a lot.
2024 season: The Falcons run almost no under-center play-action with Cousins at all, instead electing to put him in the pistol. It's so surprising that I wrote a whole piece about it. We theorized that Cousins' Achilles limited his mobility so much that he couldn't get to handoff aiming points from under center, and the Falcons were reducing his travel distance by aligning him in the pistol.
End of 2024 season into 2025 season: Michael Penix Jr. takes over for Cousins, and despite the fact that both of his Achilles work well, the Falcons remain almost exclusively a pistol team. It generally does not go well.
Sunday: Cousins fills in for the injured Penix and ... is under center on more than 50% of his snaps! Pistol almost vanishes from the offense (11% of snaps). The Falcons deploy a hitherto unseen personnel grouping to account for the absence of star WR Drake London, snapping the ball in 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends) 33 times after running it only three times total in every previous game. This works well, and the Falcons beat the Saints.
What? Why? Does Penix hate going under center? Was Cousins too unhealthy in 2024 but healthy enough in 2025? He still looks horribly immobile. Is this simply because of the 13 personnel stuff? What's going on?
I cannot stress this enough: I care more about this than I care about Sanders' first career start, Matthew Stafford for MVP, the Eagles' flailing offense or anything else. It's the most important NFL narrative for the remainder of the season as far as I'm concerned.
Plus-7.7%: That's how much win probability the Jaguars gained by going for it on fourth-and-1 on the Cardinals' 19-yard line with 1:44 remaining in a 24-21 game, according to the NFL Next Gen Stats model. The ESPN model had it a plus-9.0% win probability.
The Jaguars failed the fourth-down attempt, gave up a tying field goal drive and had to win the game in overtime. Of course, the failed conversion and subsequent runout has led to criticism.
This one is not a hard one. A first down wins the game. The Cardinals had no timeouts. Pick up 1 yard and then kneel the ball three times. It's over.
Of course, you have to convert the fourth-and-1. The Jaguars elected for a play-action pass that fell incomplete; I would have gone for a run up the middle, but I'm old-fashioned like that.
Let's call the likelihood you convert the fourthand-1 a true 50/50. Essentially, the Jaguars were given the opportunity to flip a coin: If heads, they win the game on the spot. If tails, they don't lose the game on the spot -- instead, they get to play out the rest of regulation and overtime. They'll still have chances to win the game. Doesn't that sound like a good coin flip to take?
That's if the likelihood to convert is 50/50 -- but it's even better than that! Over the past 15 years, offenses have converted 66% of their fourth-and-1s! It's a no-brainer decision, and the right one from Jaguars head coach Liam Coen. Any criticism of the decision to go is obsolete. Any criticism of the playcall is super fair.
In a similar vein, interim Giants head coach Mike Kafka has come under fire for the decision to go for a fourth-and-6 on the Lions' 6-yard line leading 27-24 with 2:59 remaining. The models are split on this decision. ESPN heavily favors going for it (plus-7.1% win probability), while Next Gen Stats prefers a field goal (minus-2.2% win probability by going).
Let's examine the split. With three minutes remaining and one timeout still in the Lions' pocket, the critical difference between this scenario and the Jaguars' is that a converted fourth down doesn't win the game on the spot. The Giants will be up 10, yes, but the Lions can score fast (as evinced by a 66-yard winning touchdown run from Jahmyr Gibbs). Detroit can get within one score and generate an onside kick opportunity, of which roughly 10% have been recovered this season. There's still a chance.
Dan Orlovsky and Rex Ryan discuss why the Giants' head coach job will be coveted in the offseason.
Fold in the fact that fourth-and-6 is dramatically different than fourth-and-1 (especially when the field is condensed in the red zone) and the Giants' chance to convert also hurts the rationale for their decision. The ESPN model heavily weighs the difference in the Lions' offensive behavior down three relative to down six, and that behavioral difference was born out in this instance: Jared Goff dinked and dunked his way into a long field goal attempt, which gave the Giants a chance to win the game in overtime.
But even on the dubious Next Gen Stats model, which favors the field goal, Kafka is well within the margin of error to make the aggressive choice to go for the 10-point lead. We cannot continue to criticize teams for looking to end games with their offense before they need to ask their defense to do the job.
$34 million: That's how much money George Pickens will make per year in a few months.
Pickens' 2025 season is setting up one of the most interesting NFL offseasons in recent memory. The Cowboys are currently last in 2026 cap space -- they're upward of $60 million dollars in the hole -- and are facing not just a solid No. 2 receiver contract for Pickens, but true No. 1 money.
Players of Pickens' caliber don't hit free agency. This is not an exaggeration. If Pickens actually hits free agency and changes teams, we will have never seen anything like it. The largest wide receiver free agent signing in history is the Titans' deal for Calvin Ridley, who signed a four-year, $92 million deal to go from Jacksonville to Tennessee. That deal was signed in March 2024, when Ridley was 29 years old. He had produced two 1,000-yard seasons in five active years (he missed a sixth in 2022 for a gambling suspension). Pickens will hit free agency at 25 with two 1,000-yard seasons under his belt.
We can reach for straws to find analogous players. Alshon Jeffery signed a one-year, $14 million dollar deal with the Eagles at 27 after five seasons (two with 1,000 yards) in Chicago. There's no shot Pickens takes a one-year contract.
Sammy Watkins had a 1,000-yard season in 2015 and a 900-yard season in 2014, but he had a bad foot injury in 2016 and was traded to the Rams before his rookie deal expired. Watkins signed a three-year, $48 million deal with the Chiefs in the ensuing free agency period. His $16 million average per year was 9% of the 2018 salary cap. If the 2026 salary cap hits the projected $295.5 million figure, an equivalent deal would be worth $26.5 million per year. If you think Pickens will sign for $26.5 million per year, I have beachfront property in Des Moines to sell you.
If Pickens truly hits the open market, he'll be the best free agent receiver since the 2011 CBA, with age and performance considered. There are off-field concerns, but with how desperate NFL teams are for star receivers, I truly think he could make top-five-receiver money. If you're the Patriots, how could any contract possibly be too much?