We are through Week 11 of the 2025 NFL regular season, and while the 2026 draft is still months away, it's never too early to take a look at the projected first-round draft order for all 32 teams -- using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
Each week during the season, ESPN's FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based primarily on the model's team ratings and game locations. The draft order is determined by the records the model projects for each team after 17 games, as well as each team's average draft position across the simulations.
Our FPI predictions are currently giving the Titans the first pick in back-to-back years, but who is behind them in the top 10? Where could teams with two first-round picks -- including the Jets after the Sauce Gardner trade -- end up selecting? Check out our full projections below ahead of Week 12.
1. Tennessee Titans (1-9)
Average draft position: 2.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 41.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 89.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.5%
2. Cleveland Browns (2-8)
Average draft position: 3.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 24.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 82.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.8%
3. New York Jets (2-8)
Average draft position: 4.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 11.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 67.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 96.3%
4. Las Vegas Raiders (2-8)
Average draft position: 5.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 8.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 62.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 95.1%
5. New Orleans Saints (2-8)
Average draft position: 5.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 55.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 92.3%
6. New York Giants (2-9)
Average draft position: 6.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 38.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 88.0%
7. Washington Commanders (3-8)
Average draft position: 7.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 34.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 86.1%
8. Cincinnati Bengals (3-7)
Average draft position: 8.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 17.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 68.6%
9. Los Angeles Rams (via 3-7 ATL)
Average draft position: 9.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 17.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 66.6%
10. Arizona Cardinals (3-7)
Average draft position: 9.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 14.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 63.2%
11. Miami Dolphins (4-7)
Average draft position: 10.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 53.7%
12. Minnesota Vikings (4-6)
Average draft position: 10.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 50.7%
13. Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1)
Average draft position: 13.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 21.1%
14. Carolina Panthers (6-5)
Average draft position: 15.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 8.4%
15. Houston Texans (5-5)
Average draft position: 17.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.8%
16. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
Average draft position: 19.2
17. Chicago Bears (7-3)
Average draft position: 20.1
18. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
Average draft position: 20.7
19. Cleveland Browns (via 6-4 JAX)
Average draft position: 20.8
20. Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
Average draft position: 21.0
21. Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)
Average draft position: 21.7
22. Detroit Lions (6-4)
Average draft position: 22.7
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)
Average draft position: 23.1
24. Dallas Cowboys (via 6-3-1 GB)
Average draft position: 23.4
25. San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
Average draft position: 24.3
26. Seattle Seahawks (7-3)
Average draft position: 24.3
27. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
Average draft position: 24.8
28. New England Patriots (9-2)
Average draft position: 25.7
29. New York Jets (via 8-2 IND)
Average draft position: 26.3
30. Los Angeles Rams (8-2)
Average draft position: 27.2
31. Denver Broncos (9-2)
Average draft position: 26.4
32. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
Average draft position: 27.8