Week 11 is in the books!
It was a marquee week for benchings. Bills receiver Keon Coleman was a healthy scratch for his tardiness to meetings, Giants edge rusher Abdul Carter missed a drive after missing a walkthrough, and Cowboys receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens sat out the first series Monday after "missing some things," according to the team. It was also a marquee week for last-second, winning plays, if you're into that. I prefer performative benchings.
Every Tuesday, I'll spin the previous week of NFL action forward, looking at what the biggest storylines mean and what comes next. We'll seek measured reactions to everyone's overreactions, celebrate the exciting stuff that nobody is appreciating and highlight what you might have missed Sunday and Monday. There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun.
Jump to a section:
Big Thing: Ranking top coaching hires
Second Take: The Seahawks are still legit
Mailbag: Answering questions from ... you
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 11 stats
The Big Thing: Stacking new head coaches and how they're winning
Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous slate of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season? This week, we're looking at how some of the NFL's new coaches are faring after 11 weeks.
Three of the seven 2025 head coaching hires have their teams in playoff position (do not ask about the other four). Two -- Mike Vrabel and Ben Johnson -- are leading their divisions! And those aren't easy divisions.
In January and February, every new head coach preaches patience while his fan base dreams of Year 1 ascension. The wheat and the chaff have separated in the 2025 class, as Vrabel, Johnson and Liam Coen have brought their respective programs to winning records. Each had a big win in Week 11, too: the Patriots in an intradivisional Thursday night game, the Bears on the road with a key kick return late and the Jaguars in resounding fashion against a solid Chargers team.
So what's working for the new headmen? I looked back at the tagline of each hire -- the expectation of how they'd bring success to their new franchises -- and compared it to the reality of their seasons thus far. One team is ahead of schedule, one team got the ideal outcome of their gamble, and one team is ... difficult to understand.
1. Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears
The promise: An elite offensive scheme and playcalling prowess that unlocks the best of Caleb Williams
The return: Exactly that (in progress)
The Bears are tricky to figure out. They are 7-3 and have shown tremendous poise for such a young group, especially on offense. Williams has authored five winning drives. He has done it on the road and at home. He has done it on days when his defense failed him (vs. the Bengals in Week 9) and when the offense was struggling for most of the contest (vs. the Giants in Week 10). One of the other promises Johnson made was improved situational football (it couldn't have been worse from the outgoing coaching staff), and he has delivered overwhelmingly.
But the Bears also have a negative point differential. They have played one team that currently has a winning record (Lions) and lost that game 52-21. They've played one other game against a team with a power rating above league average (Ravens) and lost 30-16. ESPN's Football Power Index currently ranks the Bears 19th; DVOA has them 25th.
But because of their standing atop the NFC North, this season's focus has suddenly shifted from developing a foundation to competing in the NFC playoffs. Let's recall the expectation that Johnson's complex, motion-heavy, timing-based offense would take time to install. That Williams would need to grow into the system and Johnson would have to bend his approach to accommodate a stylistically different passer than Jared Goff. That the entire offensive line and running game required reimagining.
On these benchmarks alone, Johnson has been a smashing success. Chicago could be 2-8 right now, had all those winning drives not gone its way, and I'd still be saying it. Johnson's status as a top-five playcaller in the league has been clearly cemented in his first season outside Detroit. The Bears' offense works. And it is significantly ahead of schedule.
One-year offensive line makeovers are typically the stuff of myths, but Chicago's four new starters along the line have come together swimmingly. Right guard Jonah Jackson has returned to his pre-injury form and works with franchise right tackle Darnell Wright as a dominant run-blocking force. Since Week 6, when the Bears returned from their bye, 64% of their runs have gone to the right; before the bye, it was 49%.
On the left side, guard Joe Thuney has been a steady positive presence. Center Drew Dalman, who was rocky to start the season, has blossomed as Johnson adjusted his protections and run-blocking approach to maximize the undersized yet athletic center.
The success of the four veterans has allowed Johnson to dedicate resources to protecting left tackle Theo Benedet -- who has impressive traits but is raw as a pass protector -- after he took the starting job from Braxton Jones. Benedet gets a ton of help in the passing game, but the Bears are impactful across all five positions in the running game. Chicago leads the league in expected yards per carry, per NFL Next Gen Stats. In other words, the blocking and space when the back gets the ball is better in Chicago than anywhere else in the league.
It's difficult to overstate the greatness of this achievement. Johnson's commitment to building Chicago's running game has created an easier environment for passing the football. Williams has seen base defense on 31.7% of his dropbacks, which is second most behind only Lamar Jackson; he has run a play-action fake on 32.3%, which is third behind Matthew Stafford and Daniel Jones. The pre-snap manipulation is only half of the victory, as 30.2% of Williams' pass attempts this season have been thrown to targets tracked as "wide open" by NFL Next Gen Stats (at least 5 yards of separation). That's the highest rate in the league, and it remains the highest if you filter out throws behind the line of scrimmage.
Johnson is smashing the easy buttons for Williams, and Williams is more than holding up his end of the bargain. Week over week, the Bears' operation becomes smoother. They've cut down the pre-snap penalties. Williams, who was missing in-breaking routes wildly to start the season, is pinning them onto his receivers' numbers. Sure, issues remain -- Bears receivers have 13 drops, and a few of those are the result of mistimed routes and throws between quarterback and pass catcher -- but they are fewer and farther between.
When Johnson's scheme fails, Williams is there to color in the lines. Only Sam Darnold and Bo Nix have avoided sacks at a higher rate than Williams this season, and Williams is fifth in total scramble EPA. If the Bears can start connecting on more downfield shots when Williams enters creation mode, the final infinity stone will slide into place for this offense, and the passing game will roar to life. They've been so close the past couple of weeks. It seems like the snowball is about to start rolling down the mountain.
Chicago has the toughest remaining schedule in the league (though a Mason Rudolph-led Steelers team on Sunday would soften that some). I'm not sure how the Bears' season will turn out and what they can do in the postseason with a thin defense and a green offense. But independent of the results, the process in Chicago is excellent. Johnson is everything that was promised, and in short time, Williams will be, too.
2. Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots
The promise: A steady CEO of personnel and culture who would elevate the team's floor
The return: A bigger boost than even the most faithful Patriots fan could have expected
Before handing Vrabel his deserved accolades, there is a necessary caveat that gets far-too-easily leapfrogged in Patriots discussions this season. Sophomore quarterback Drake Maye was far, far closer to this season's MVP form than he got credit for last season. I wrote about this coming out of Week 16 last season, when Jayden Daniels was about to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. I thought Maye was authoring a more impressive season.
Maye's debut season was ninth in success rate and 14th in EPA per dropback among all rookie quarterbacks in the 2000s. Daniels was third and seventh, respectively -- but Maye was dealing with much worse pass protection and wide receiver play, not to mention the coaching miscues. Maye's peak plays were also misconstrued, as there were far more examples of high-tier processing, ball placement and calculated aggression on his film than the Patriots' record would have led you to believe. By the end of the season, he was firing on all cylinders.
As such, I give Vrabel less credit for Maye's leap into MVP-hood than the average pundit might. But Vrabel has not misstepped once in his construction of the team around Maye, and for that, he deserves bouquets of flowers. Four new starters man the offensive line -- two via free agency, two via the draft -- and while the line is still below average, it's not prohibitive to offensive success like it was last season. How about among the skill positions? Of Maye's 308 targets, 152 (49.4%) have gone to Vrabel acquisitions, as have 1,303 of Maye's 2,836 yards (45.9%).
Vrabel's hiring of Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator was a strong one, but it's the defense that has taken the bigger leap. The entire unit has been reimagined under Vrabel, who brought in DT Milton Williams, DT Khyiris Tonga, edge rusher Harold Landry III, DT Cory Durden, edge K'Lavon Chaisson, LB Robert Spillane, LB Jack Gibbens, CB Carlton Davis III and safety Craig Woodson. That's 3,909 defensive snaps from acquisitions made this offseason, and each player has met or exceeded expectations.
Beyond his work as quasi-GM, Vrabel has dramatically improved the Patriots situationally. New England has 57 points within two minutes of the end of the half this season, second to only the Buccaneers. The Patriots have given up only 34 points in those situations, which is 10th best. The Patriots are 13-for-16 on fourth down, and that 81.3% conversion rate leads the league. The red zone is the only somewhat weak point, with an average offense -- 57.5% touchdown rate -- and a below-average defense. But hey, nobody's perfect.
Anecdotally, the Patriots look like a veteran team. They've risen to the occasion in big moments -- road wins in Buffalo and Tampa Bay -- and sidestepped letdown spots that typically entrap young squads. They handled the Jets, Titans, Saints, Browns and Panthers -- struggling teams that often get the drop on suddenly winning squads such as New England.
Cam Newton questions how the Patriots will perform against playoff teams after an easy regular-season schedule.
Vrabel has been the rising tide for this team, though that tide might reach a limit when the Patriots' schedule stiffens up. New England has faced the easiest stretch of opponents to start this season, and even if the Patriots secure a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs, they will find their mettle tested by AFC contenders. But the bill that Vrabel sold the Patriots -- that he had the experience and wisdom to turn the team into one of those contenders -- was clearly realized. We'll find out just how high that ceiling is soon enough.
3. Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars
The promise: An offense that would finally unlock Trevor Lawrence
The return: I'm really not sure yet
The Jaguars are one of the most confounding teams of the 2025 season. At 6-4, they're in the thick of the AFC playoff picture. DVOA has them as a totally average team (15th), as does success rate (15th on offense, 24th on defense) and EPA (20th on offense, 13th on defense). The FPI has them as the 17th-best team. Point margin has them 12th.
Only they're not average; they're volatile. Of the 328 NFL games played so far this season, the Jaguars' defense has three of the 50 best by success rate, and three of the 75 worst. By offensive success rate, they just had the 18th-best game in the league this season in their 35-6 win over the Chargers -- and the third-best of Lawrence's career -- one week after having the 241st.
On offense, Coen's biggest impact has been on the running game, not the passing attack. While his 2024 Buccaneers offense excelled with a high-percentage passing game and explosive runs behind it, the 2025 Jaguars have few explosive plays on the ground. But the engine of the offense has still been Travis Etienne Jr. and, recently, rookie Bhayshul Tuten. The improvement on the interior offensive line with free agents Robert Hainsey and Patrick Mekari has allowed Coen to beat bad defenses on the ground. Check the games in which the Jaguars' offense was functional, and you see some bad run defenses -- the Chargers, Bengals and Raiders.
The running game is where Coen's creativity and coaching acumen shines. This was even true in Tampa Bay. Though it wasn't the feature of that offense, the Bucs ran a deep variety of concepts and regularly tailored their rushing approach to that week's opponent; Jacksonville has done the same, albeit with more of a league-average offensive line.
But the passing game has unquestionably lagged. Before Sunday's shellacking of the Chargers, Jacksonville was 25th in EPA per dropback, 27th in success rate and 27th in first down plus touchdown rate. It's worth noting that Lawrence's receivers lead the league in drops, and a carousel of pass catchers have filled in following injuries to tight end Brenton Strange and receivers Travis Hunter (who didn't have the sort of two-way success the Jaguars hoped he might before being sidelined for the season) and Brian Thomas Jr. (who has had quite a disappointing sophomore season).
Marcus Spears voices his concern for Travis Hunter after it was announced he is having season-ending knee surgery.
There's justification for the early-season difficulty of the passing game, and perhaps this most recent performance indicates the corner is being turned. But as it stands, Lawrence remains locked.
The good news -- and surprising win! -- is that it looks like Coen nailed his defensive coordinator hire. First-year DC Anthony Campanile, who came from Green Bay's system under Jeff Hafley, is running the cutting-edge schemes the defensive nerds love. According to Next Gen Stats, the Jaguars are seventh in sim pressure rate, dropping a defender off the line of scrimmage on 36.4% of their snaps. Linebacker Devin Lloyd and nickel corner Jourdan Lewis have taken huge strides in this system.
This is a bend-but-don't-break defensive philosophy, so the numbers aren't pretty on a down-to-down basis. Jacksonville is 24th in defensive success rate but 13th in expected points. Much like the Packers' defense last season, the Jaguars win by limiting explosive plays -- 9.8% of opposing snaps, seventh in the league -- and creating timely takeaways. Only the Rams and Bears are generating more turnovers per drive than the Jaguars.
Unlike the Bears and the Patriots' coaching staffs, who got personnel turned around fast enough to generate a Year 1 proof of concept, the Jaguars still need roster help before anything concrete can be said about their staff. Who is the best player on the Jaguars' offense? Strange when healthy, or Thomas when on his game? After edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen, who is the best player on the defense? Lloyd or Lewis, likely. There simply isn't enough scale-tipping talent for either side of the ball to make substantial waves.
To that end, it is a positive sign that the staff has squeezed out a 6-4 record. But for the Jaguars' staff, like most first-year staffs, it's too early to tell exactly what this group is capable of doing.
Second Take: The Seahawks are still a top-tier NFC contender
ESPN's "First Take" is known for, well, providing the first take on things -- the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather where I'll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view.
In the biggest game of the 2025 NFL season to date, the 7-2 Rams met the 7-2 Seahawks in a battle not just for NFC West supremacy but also the true inside track to an NFC Championship Game berth. On the surface, a 21-19 Rams win that ended on a missed Seahawks field goal implies an even, tight contest. But Seahawks fans are in dismay at how they got there. Star quarterback Sam Darnold -- a legitimate MVP candidate through 10 weeks -- threw four interceptions in a spooky, retro performance.
Because Darnold looked like he did the last time we saw him in the NFC playoffs (against these same Rams, no less), it's easy to leap to an obvious conclusion: Darnold can't hack it against NFC playoff teams. He wilts in big moments. The Seahawks are a dead team walking.
I'd like to throw some cold water on that overreaction. And I'd like to start with a reminder that Darnold's exciting season isn't even the coolest thing about the Seahawks in 2025. That's Mike Macdonald's defense.
There's a legitimate argument to be made that this was the single best defensive performance against Matthew Stafford in a Rams jersey. Stafford has started 74 regular-season and postseason games under Sean McVay, and by EPA per dropback, Sunday's game was 72nd (minus-0.36 EPA per dropback). For perspective, that ranks just around Bo Nix's game against the Raiders in Week 10 (minus-0.35) ... and the game that Darnold just played against the Rams (minus-0.34).
By completion percentage? It is 71st out of 74. By completion percentage relative to expectation? It ranks 73rd out of 74, per NFL Next Gen Stats. By yards per passing attempt, it wasn't only the worst game of Stafford's Ram tenure; it was his worst by a comfortable margin (4.6, relative to his previous worst of 5.3).
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) November 17, 2025
The Seahawks didn't do one special thing to unravel the Rams' passing attack. Rather, they did everything. They pressured Stafford with four, pressed the wide receivers off the line, tackled well underneath, challenged the catch point with physicality, matched routes well in zone coverage, got lucky with a drop or two and generated unblocked rushers on blitzes. It was a consummate defensive performance through the air. The Rams' passing game looked like the Titans' passing game.
Seattle's run defense suffered a bit in exchange. Rams running back Kyren Williams had 76 yards in the first quarter, which was more than any rusher had gained against the Seahawks all season. Seattle quickly settled in -- Williams' 76 yards came on his first six carries, and he had only 15 on his final six -- but the damage was enough. The Rams had 14 points when the first quarter ended; the Seahawks would not clear 14 points until 2:23 remained in the game.
The defensive performance alone should give the Seahawks' faithful a legitimate hook to hang their hat and hopes on. This isn't coping in the slightest. There are perhaps three defenses capable of slamming the brakes on the Rams' offense, and the other two (Denver and Houston) play in the AFC. (The Eagles might be there by January; we'll see.)
While it is enormously difficult to clear the bar of "our defense alone is good enough to win three playoff games in a row," the Seahawks' unit emphatically does. The fact that they now trail in the division and might play on the road in the postseason gives me no pause, either. Macdonald's record on the road is 11-2, for a win percentage of .846, which far exceeds the next-best road win percentage (Nick Sirianni's .718). How many points would the Eagles or Lions score against this defense?
Of course, the primary source of Seahawks consternation comes from the offensive performance. Darnold threw four picks, which is absolutely dreadful -- and the how of those four picks is even worse. But there can be silver linings even in the worst games.
The Rams dared the Seahawks to run. This was a predictable approach. Seattle entered the game first in dropback success rate but 21st in designed run success rate. Its entire passing game was built on play-action fakes, heavy defensive personnel and rollouts. Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula was clearly committed to forcing Seattle to earn those snaps. Shula played base defense (three linebackers, four defensive backs) on only 34% of Seattle's early-down snaps. For context, Seattle was seeing base on such snaps 58.6% of the time entering the game.
Those additional defensive backs were on the field to dare Seattle into grinding out the running game, and the Seahawks did their darndest. They had 30 early-down carries in the open field (between their own 10-yard line and the Rams' 20) and averaged 4.4 yards per carry -- not bad! The advanced analytics weren't gangbusters -- only one explosive run and a 33% success rate are both disappointing, and should be better -- but it was enough to stay out of third-and-long. Seattle had only four third downs of 7-plus yards and only one beyond 10 yards.
Of course, they converted none of those third-and-long situations. Which brings us to Darnold.
The last time Darnold played the Rams, he was wearing a Vikings jersey in the wild-card round of the 2024 playoffs. The Rams hit him 14 times in that game and pressured him on 46% of his dropbacks. Darnold played the Rams in the 2024 regular season, too, when he took only seven hits but faced a 44.8% pressure rate.
Darnold played Sunday absolutely terrified of the Rams' pressure. No two ways around it. From the first snap, he rushed throws from imperfect but still clean pockets. His accuracy was on a historic pace entering Sunday -- his off-target rate was below 10%, something that has occurred only twice in the NFL in a full season since 2006 -- but tailed off dramatically at the first sign of the pocket collapsing.
Let's look at some examples. Here's a third-and-8 from the 12-yard line. Darnold has Jaxon Smith-Njigba -- who, you might have heard, is having a very good season -- breaking just below the stick on a quick out route. Above him, tight end Elijah Arroyo is running to the corner. This is an easy read. If the corner is playing off coverage, drill Smith-Njigba on time and, at the very least, get to fourth-and-1. If the corner drives on Smith-Njigba, throw the corner to Arroyo.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) November 18, 2025
Both options end up viable here. Cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr. is late to open his hips to Smith-Njigba, and a timely throw would have likely created a first down. And after Forbes recovers and drives, the corner route to Arroyo is open. It's a tight window, but that's the nature of the red zone. Spin it, Sam!
Darnold is flat-footed in the pocket, twitching with uncertainty. The moment color appears in his vision, he bails out the back door to a fruitless scramble drill. The Darnold from the first 10 weeks was excelling by getting this ball out on time with rocket velocity and stupid accuracy. This was an out-of-character play.
Here's Darnold's second dropback (and first pick) of the game. Los Angeles gets some sticky man coverage and good interior push from defensive tackle Braden Fiske. Darnold can see defensive end Jared Verse collapsing inside from his left and knows he has swathes of space outside of the pocket. It's first-and-10 and four minutes into the game -- he hasn't been hit yet.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) November 18, 2025
Yet Darnold goes for the fadeaway jumper to Cooper Kupp, not exactly a player who has been winning against man coverage recently. Darnold never had vision to the weakside, where safety Kamren Kinchens (who initially looked like he might be bracketing Smith-Njigba but became a middle-of-the-field robber) followed his eyes right to the catch point.
This play looks like a panicked heave in the fourth quarter on a key third down because that's where Darnold's headspace and heart rate were from the jump. He couldn't stop shorting throws, speeding up his internal clock and fading away from (dare I say) ghosts in the pocket. Yet Darnold was hit only five times in this game, and the Rams achieved pressure just 26.7% of the time. Had someone told me those two stats before the game, I would have predicted the Seahawks would score 35.
The low pressure rate is a testament to offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and how he schemed Darnold up against Shula. The Seahawks got four or five men into the concept and spread the field out more than they had in past games, giving Darnold quick underneath answers to stay ahead of the sticks. What Seattle couldn't do in the running game, it did in the quick passing game to stay on schedule. As such, Darnold had a 57.8% success rate on the day. In the two-minute drills late, when the Seahawks got into the no-huddle flow, he looked quite sharp.
The outcome seems disastrous on offense because of the four interceptions, and the turnover problem is not one to wave away. Darnold has 14 giveaways, which is more than every quarterback save for Tua Tagovailoa. By EPA lost on turnovers, he is far and away the worst in the NFL right now. For as accurate as Darnold has been, he throws some tight windows, and his poor feel for pressure creates some explosive sack fumbles. And because Darnold is so prone to turnovers, his bad games spiral quickly, while his good games look impossibly efficient. Again, Tagovailoa's volatility is a reasonable comp here.
But for as bad as Darnold was Sunday, this game ended a two-point contest that could have swung on a Jason Myers 61-yard field goal. Imagine if Darnold had thrown just three picks and not four -- if the Rams' defensive backs dropped just one throw, as defensive backs often do. Imagine if Rams punter Ethan Evans hadn't dropped a scintillating coffin corner kick at the 1-yard line to force the Seahawks to drive the maximum distance into field-goal range late.
The Seahawks' methodical offense and voracious defense kept the Rams' offense bottled up, and that seems repeatable. After all, Stafford and McVay had only 13 points in regulation against Macdonald when these teams last played their starters against one each other in 2024. Yes, Darnold had a disastrous game in key moments, and while that is technically repeatable, even a C-tier game from the quarterback would have ended in a Seahawks win.
Of course, the Rams' offense will likely be better when it next faces Seattle (Week 16 on Thursday night), and better again if they meet for a third time in the postseason. It's unfair to expect the Seahawks to improve on offense without expecting the Rams to do the same. But if the teams looked fairly evenly matched in a game in which Darnold threw four interceptions, the fix isn't hard to find for Seattle:
Protect the football. Take the sack. Play for field position. Trust the defense.
If Darnold forever quivers in his boots opposite Verse and Byron Young, it might be hopeless. We'll find out at the rematch. But I still believe in the bulk of good football the Seahawks have played this season, and I refuse to exclude them from NFC contention until far more evidence accumulates against them.
From y'all
The best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime -- but especially on Monday each week -- to ask a question and potentially get it answered here.
From Jimmy: "Do you think the Eagles and Ravens are content with having mid offenses until the playoffs if it means their QB won't get hurt?"
This is a big question. There were remarks on the broadcast Sunday night saying Jalen Hurts' legs would be an increased part of the Eagles' offense come postseason. But I'm not convinced by it.
Across his career, Hurts does have more designed runs per playoff game (4.8) than per regular-season game (3.3) -- that's with sneaks mostly filtered out. On the flip side, Hurts has an 8.6% scramble rate in regular season games and 5.4% in the postseason. They might call more runs for him, but in return, he calls his own number on dropbacks less frequently.
As for the Ravens' Lamar Jackson, he has 5.8 designed rushes per playoff game, 5.1 per regular-season game. Not too big of a difference. In recent history, however, that difference has disappeared. Since 2022, Jackson actually has more designed runs in regular-season games (4.0) than he does in the postseason (3.8). The same sensation is not seen on scrambles: for his career, he scrambles more in the postseason than in the regular season, and that delta has widened recently.
It's true that both QBs are less involved as runners than they've ever been. Jackson is averaging 2.6 designed rushes per game; Hurts, without sneaks, is at 1.3. Career lows across the board.
But both offenses have bigger problems than QB run involvement. The Eagles' handoff game isn't nearly what it was last season, as the offensive line has regressed in large part due to nagging injuries. The Ravens' passing game is highly inconsistent as Jackson is struggling with pocket management and quick decision making. Neither team will be able to crank the QB run dial in January to see their offense magically solved.
From Spencer: "What should the Chargers be doing differently on offense to try and create more easy plays/throws for Justin Herbert to deal with the offensive line play? Did not feel like there were easy plays/options for Herbert basically all game yesterday."
Well, there's really only so much you can do. This isn't a regular run-of-the-mill bad offensive line. Herbert has seen 40 unblocked pressures (next closest QB is at 33) and 82 quick pressures (next closest QB has 62). This is as bad of a protection group we've seen in a couple of years.
For years, Greg Roman's default answer to poor offensive line play has been to establish the run and get to the play-action pass, but ...
You don't really need to run to get to the play-action pass.
If you're not a good running team, which the Chargers aren't, then teams will just rush the passer and expect to clean up in run defense regardless.
Play-action dropbacks still take a long time and require no blown blocks, which isn't a reasonable expectation with this Chargers offensive line.
Once you're trailing, you kind of lose the play-action passing game anyway.
Roman knows this. Herbert's play-action rate in the past two games have been 17.5% and 21.7% -- his season average through the first nine weeks was 29.5%. Similarly, 41.5% of Herbert's attempts were thrown within 2.5 seconds to start the season; over the past two weeks, it has been 63.6% and 50%. The Chargers are trying to become a quicker passing team.
It's not really in Herbert's nature to be a quick-game dink-and-dunker (see: the Joe Lombardi era). It also doesn't play to Quentin Johnston or Oronde Gadsden II's strengths. Short of a big pickup in the running game (Omarion Hampton is back when?), I'm not sure the Chargers can fix this poor of a line.
From Alex: "Why are all the NFL teams this year massive frauds? I don't trust a single team."
Every single Super Bowl winner in NFL history lost a ridiculous game that you don't remember and was a massive fraud in that moment. Last season's Eagles lost to Kirk Cousins' Falcons. The 2023 Chiefs lost to Russell Wilson's Broncos and Antonio Pierce's Raiders. Tom Brady's Bucs lost a 9-0 game to a Saints team that earnestly started Taysom Hill at quarterback (he went 13-for-27).
The NFL is a brutal league. Anyone can get anyone's number on any given week. There is no such thing as a dominant professional football team. Embrace the void and accept chaos.
From Dabs: "Are the 2025 Chiefs or the 2024 Chiefs better?"
The 2024 Chiefs for sure. It wasn't pretty, but they were playing to win. I'm getting increasingly frustrated by performative deep shots when their defense needs protecting. (Not enough people are talking about the shakiness of the Kansas City defense!) The offense was displeasing to watch but had creativity.
And Patrick Mahomes was clearly frustrated, but he was also playing better. By Week 11 last season, he had half as many scrambles (22 to 38) but significantly more scramble EPA (22 vs 15.7). The Chiefs were right to adjust their philosophy on offense, but the scheme and personnel are still lagging behind the approach. And as the Chiefs' defensive talent drains, their margins continue to thin.
Damien Woody, Adam Schefter and Rex Ryan discuss the Broncos' big win over the Chiefs.
Next Ben Stats
NFL Next Gen Stats are unique and insightful nuggets of data that are gleaned from tracking chips and massive databases. Next Ben Stats are usually numbers I made up. Both are below.
41.9%: That's opposing quarterbacks' completion percentage when targeting Eagles second-year cornerback Quinyon Mitchell this season. Per Next Gen Stats, that's the lowest mark since 2018 among defenders with at least 50 targets.
A comprehensive list of rookie-contract defensive players who are better than Mitchell right now:
Ravens S Kyle Hamilton
Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr.
There are a few players who are close, such as fellow Eagles defensive back Cooper DeJean, Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie, Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez and Rams edge rusher Jared Verse. But I'm more inclined to place Mitchell on the tier with Hamilton and Anderson than I am to put him in the second group.
Easy first-team All-Pro season from Mitchell. It should be unanimous.
30.8%: That's the rate at which the Eagles' offense goes three-and-out. It's the highest rate in football. They are 8-2 and tied for the NFC lead.
This one's a two-parter, stick with me.
28.9%: That's the rate at which the Broncos' offense goes three-and-out. It's the second-highest rate in football. They are 9-2 and tied for the AFC lead.
Let's put this into context. No offenses go three-and-out more often than the Eagles and Broncos do. Third on the list are the Titans, who are 1-9. Fourth are the Vikings, who have played J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz at quarterback this season. Absurd.
If we expand the scope a few seasons, we can find some equally bad offenses. The 2022 Titans were even worse than the Eagles -- that was the end of the Tannehill era, as Will Levis took over the next season. The 2023 Giants (the Tommy DeVito year!) and 2023 Patriots (the Bailey Zappe year! Also Bill Belichick's last season!) are also up there.
Rex Ryan joins "Get Up" and evaluates the Broncos' defense after their win over the Chiefs.
But the Eagles and Broncos are still winning games -- not just winning them, but pacing the league! Looking only at teams with a win percentage of at least .750: the Eagles and Broncos are the two worst offenses in three-and-out rate this century. The only equivalent offense beyond 2000, according to Elias Sports Bureau: the 1984 Broncos, who started the season 11-1 ... then lost in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Does this mean the 2025 teams are primed for postseason collapse? Looking at recent, similar seasons within the first 11 weeks -- high win percentage, terrible three-and-out frequency -- presents worrisome candidates. The 2022 Vikings, a notoriously lucky squad that was 8-2 through 11 weeks, lost to Daniel Jones' Giants in the wild-card round. The 2024 Chargers also went one-and-done when they ran into an elite Houston defense.
But the 2016 Patriots were high on this list, and they finished 14-2 and won a Super Bowl in overtime against the Falcons that you might have heard of. The 2015 Broncos won a Super Bowl as well.
I'm not sure what to predict for the Eagles and Broncos. Both teams are clearly carried by their defenses (the Broncos all season; the Eagles of late). Both offenses clearly have enough juice to win shootouts or build fourth-quarter comebacks, but not consistently. If both teams secure a bye and home-field advantage, they need only to get hot for three games, not four. It's clearly doable. But the three-and-outs are not ignorable, either.
minus-0.79: That was Shedeur Sanders' EPA per dropback against the Ravens on Sunday. Among 320 games this season with at least 20 dropbacks, that is 317th.
The only worse performances were Jake Browning (against the Vikings), Tua Tagovailoa (against the Browns) and Justin Fields (against the Broncos).
Now, in Sanders' defense: he's a QB3; he has been hurt, so he has missed practice time; and the Ravens have been a good defense since the Alohi Gilman trade. Sanders was thrust into the second half and would certainly look better with a week's worth of preparation as the starter.
It appears Sanders will get that week and that start. Gabriel remains in the concussion protocol this week, and Sanders is in line to take the bulk of the practice reps as QB1. A road start in Las Vegas against a league-average defense should give us a good barometer for Sanders' NFL capacity.
Rex Ryan questions why Shedeur Sanders looked so out of place playing in his NFL debut for the Browns.
5.0%: That's the Chiefs' explosive rush rate this season, which is tied with the Titans for the worst rate in football.
It gets worse. Limit the scope just to running back carries, and 2.6% of the Chiefs' carries have been explosive (12-plus yards). That's five rushes on 194 handoffs. If that number holds, it will be the worst explosive rush rate on running back carries for an offense this century, coming in just below the 2007 and 2024 Chiefs.
Much has been made of the Chiefs not going under center to run the football, but that's only half the problem. The Chiefs certainly need to get under center and commit more bodies to their running game. It is rare to see Chiefs wide receivers involved in run blocking, while premier running games across the league have willing run-blocking wideouts as a hallmark. The tight ends, while technically in the assignment, are generally net negatives in blocking responsibilities.
But the deficiency goes beyond scheme. A backfield featuring Kareem Hunt, Isaiah Pacheco (off injury) and Brashard Smith simply does not have enough creative, juiced-up runners. The Chiefs buttress their running game with swings and screens to their talented receivers, such as Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice, but defenses are wise to that now: Mahomes' 91 throws behind the line of scrimmage lead the league, but his 5.0 yards per attempt is just above average, and his 6.6% explosive play rate is below average.
This has been an issue the Chiefs have been able to hide for a long time. But I can't find a schematic justification for living in this spread, screen-heavy world any longer -- it doesn't help the passing game at all! Nor can I find a personnel justification for trotting out a backfield without running back talent -- it's one of the most talent-rich positions in the league.
If last offseason was all about fixing the deep ball in Kansas City (an effort that hasn't really worked, for what it's worth), this offseason must be about the running game. For what it's worth: After that 2007 season, Kansas City selected a running back in the third round of the 2008 draft out of Texas named Jamaal Charles.