Bills (11-3) at Patriots (6-8)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC
Matchup rating: 67.8 | Spread: BUF -7.0 (46)
What to watch for: Gunner Olszewski leads the NFL with a 19.1-yard punt-return average (16 returns, 305 yards). If he continues that pace, it would be the highest return average in Patriots history. Only seven players in NFL history have a return average of at least 20 yards in a single season (minimum 12 returns). This will also be the Patriots' first game while already eliminated from the playoffs since the 2000 season finale. -- Mike Reiss
Bold prediction: Predicting a Bills win in Foxborough isn't enough? In this resounding victory, Buffalo's Josh Allen will surpass the 400-yard passing mark as the Bills complete their first sweep of the reigning AFC East champions since 1999. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: The last time New England lost twice to a divisional opponent in the regular season was 2000 (Dolphins and Jets swept Pats). According to Elias, the Patriots' 19-season streak without being swept is by far the longest since the 1970 merger (next longest: 11 straight seasons).
Playoff/draft picture: The Bills clinched the AFC East title last week, and FPI gives them a 68.1% chance of having the 3-seed in the playoffs. The Patriots are projected to pick No. 15 overall in the 2021 draft.
What to know for fantasy: Stefon Diggs' 15.2 points in the first meeting looks fine in the box score, but was that his ceiling in this spot? There were only 118 total plays in that game (the lowest in a Bills game this season) and Diggs was targeted on an unsustainable 50% of his routes. See Week 16 rankings.
Betting nugget: New England is 22-11 ATS as an underdog of more than a field goal under Bill Belichick (including the playoffs) and 10-3 ATS as at least a 7-point underdog. Read more.
Louis-Jacques' pick: Bills 27, Patriots 7
Reiss' pick: Bills 27, Patriots 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 58.5% (by an average of 2.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bills dominating third quarter after close calls early in the season ... Patriots QB Cam Newton says 'I still have a lot of football left' ... Bills cruise past Broncos en route to their first AFC East championship since 1995