Every Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (0-2 last week, 18-28-1 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (1-3, 31-51-1), Anita Marks (10-10, 78-88-2), Preston Johnson (0-0, 14-19), Mike Clay (0-0, 15-10) and Tyler Fulghum (1-6-1, 57-73-2), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (4-1, 29-20), Seth Walder (0-4, 46-29) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (2-4, 36-43-2) of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from the weekend's slate.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.
Sunday's 8:20 pm. ET game
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 56)
Fulghum: Derrick Henry will be up against a Packers defense ranked 21st in the league against the run, allowing 4.55 yards per carry. Dalvin Cook is probably the closest comparison in the league to Henry (at least this season), and Cook has posted 42 carries for 213 yard and five touchdowns against the Packers in two games. Tennessee is 10-3-1 to the over this season and 19-4-1 in Ryan Tannehill regular-season starts. Add in Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense on the other side and we should see a shootout.
Pick: Titans +3.5, over 56
Fortenbaugh: Green Bay's weak spot is its run defense, with Henry and the Titans suited quite well to exploit that. Tennessee's weak spot is its pass defense, with Rodgers and the Packers suited quite well to exploit that. On top of all that, overs are 20-6-1 in Tennessee games since Tannehill took over as the team's starting quarterback last season. I think you know where I'm going here.
Pick: Over 56
Kezirian: Tannehill has started 24 regular-season games for Tennessee, and we now know to expect scoring. The over is 19-4-1 in those games. Tannehill is willing to throw deep, Henry can rip off big runs (Preston explains further below) and the defense ranks in the bottom third in yards allowed per play. I expect MVP candidate Rodgers to take full advantage of that. Plus, Green Bay ranks in the bottom half in yards per play allowed, so the Titans will find plenty of opportunities on offense.
Pick: Over 56
Johnson: My personal projection in this matchup is 2.5, so getting the hook on the other side of a key number like three is going to catch my attention. The Packers have been great on offense this season, but their defense still ranks below average. They come in at No. 25 in EPA against the rush and 21st in success rate. The Titans are coming in with the best rushing attack in football and an offense that overall also ranks No. 1 in success rate. Tennessee is Green Bay's worst nightmare from a matchup standpoint, and I'm happy to take the 3.5 points while we get the hook.
Pick: Titans +3.5
Sunday's 1 p.m. ET games
Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 53.5)
Fulghum: Kansas City has won nine straight games, but the past six have finished within one score. The Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS in those six games. Matt Ryan is 5-1 ATS in his career as a double-digit underdog. The past two times he's been in that spot, Atlanta has won the game outright. The Falcons' offense could get a boost from the return of Julio Jones, and the defense has played much better under Raheem Morris than it did under Dan Quinn.
Pick: Falcons +10.5, over 53.5
Schatz: Since 1978, the record for wins in a season without covering the spread belongs to the 1986 Bears, with eight. So far this year, the Chiefs have won without covering seven times. This game looks set up for No. 8. That 10.5-point line is perfect for a backdoor cover. Many people have argued that the Chiefs take their foot off the gas with a lead. That's even more likely given that this game is almost entirely pointless for the Chiefs, who have clinched the No. 1 seed unless they lose out, Buffalo wins out, and then Kansas City loses a complicated strength of victory calculation dependent on a bunch of other results. Also, Atlanta is not bad. The Falcons are 17th in weighted DVOA, and they've actually outscored their opponents over the course of the season. In particular, Kansas City might be the cure for Atlanta's problems in the red zone. The Falcons rank 30th in red zone offensive DVOA, but the Chiefs' defense ranks 32nd.
Pick: Falcons +10.5
Marks: The Falcons are looking ahead to next season, and need to assess the talent they have on their current roster. Ito Smith is expected to get the start, and receive a lot of volume this week against the Chiefs. KC is allowing 150 total yards to opposing backfields at the moment.
Pick: Smith over 59.5 combined rushing and receiving yards
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 44.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Fortenbaugh: Monday night's loss at Cincinnati was just the latest debacle in a horrific month for Pittsburgh. The Steelers are averaging a paltry 17 points per game in their past four, failing to eclipse 20 each time. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown at least one interception in five straight games. Indianapolis is tied for first in turnover differential, is ninth in pressure rate and has been rock solid on the road since that Week 1 loss at Jacksonville, going 5-1 both SU and ATS with a +59 scoring differential. By the way, Pittsburgh is on short rest for the third time in the past four weeks.
Pick: Colts -1.5
Marks: I'm not certain how this line is only 1.5, but I'm rolling with it. The Steelers have been a hot mess the last three weeks, and losing to a Bengals team that was starting a third-string quarterback had to be a season low. Roethlisberger is a shell of himself at the moment, struggling to complete a pass longer than 10 yards, and it is evident he is dealing with a knee injury. The loss of linebacker Bud Dupree was a huge hit as well. Meanwhile, the Colts and Philip Rivers are peaking at the right time. This is not the week the Steelers want to face one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Pick: Colts -1.5, Hines over 21.5 receiving yards, Pascal over 3.5 receptions
Chicago Bears (-7.5, 47) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Marks: I love the Bears in this spot. Chicago's playoff hopes are alive and kicking and the Bears now face a Jags team that is looking to keep its No. 1 draft position to select Trevor Lawrence. The last thing the Jags want is to win and miss out on Lawrence. The Bears are averaging 30-plus points a game with Mitchell Trubisky and David Montgomery back in action. Each team will get what it wants at the end of the day -- the Bears one step closer to the postseason and the Jags closer to getting their franchise quarterback.
Pick: Bears alternate line -9 (+105), Trubisky over 1.5 passing touchdowns, Montgomery to score and Bears to win parlay (-120)
Kezirian: The Jaguars are now two losses away from winning the Lawrence sweepstakes, thanks to the Jets pulling off an improbable win last weekend. Will they blow it? It is absolutely possible, especially considering that the players couldn't care less about draft position. With that being said, there is a reason the Jags have not won since the season opener. Meanwhile, the Bears have shown signs of life, winning their last two games and scoring a combined 69 points. I have to believe Chicago will win this game.
Pick: Bears -1.5 in teaser with Bills -1
Cleveland Browns (-9.5, 47.5) at New York Jets
Fulghum: Don't let the Jets' win over the Rams fool you. The Jets are allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt (fifth most in league) and they struggle to pressure the quarterback. Their 4.6% sack rate is 26th in the league, and Baker Mayfield has been balling lately even without Odell Beckham Jr. Of course, Kevin Stefanski prefers to run the ball, and the Browns can inflict their will there too.
Pick: Browns -9.5
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens (-11, 45)
Bearman: The Giants haven't gone over 17 points since November. They've failed to get there in half their games this season and haven't even broken 300 total yards in the past three games. Their offense is fourth worst in the league at 17.4 points per game, and they now face an improved and healthier Ravens defense. Daniel Jones has missed two of the past three games due to hamstring and ankle issues and won't be able to use his legs a lot if he does play. If he's out, in steps Colt McCoy, who has looked OK but not great. Both teams are fighting for the playoffs, but Baltimore's road is much easier, and I expect the Ravens to pull out all the stops.
Pick: Giants team total under 17.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-8, 46)
Kezirian: Cincinnati's win on Monday Night Football as a two-touchdown underdog was extremely impressive. Given it was just the Bengals' third win, that was their season's high point. So that means this has all the makings of a poor week of practice and performance on Sunday. I expect a similar effort to what we expected the week before that clash with the Steelers, which saw Cincy lose 30-7 at home to Dallas. I do not love backing such a poor Texans squad, but the situation is too enticing for me to pass up a teaser leg.
Pick: Texans -2 in teaser with Saints -1
Marks: Giovani Bernard is coming off a great game last week against a good Steelers defense and came close to posting 100 yards. The Bengals keep it going this week against a more favorable match up against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL.
Pick: Bernard over 49.5 rushing yards
Sunday's 4 p.m. ET games
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 47.5)
Fulghum: Following one of the biggest regular-season upsets in the past decade, this seems like a good time to buy low on the Rams. They should be focused and bring a tremendous effort with what's on the line against Seattle. A win and Los Angeles is in the playoffs. The Rams are 13-5 ATS after a loss under Sean McVay and have covered in each of the past three meetings against the Seahawks.
Pick: Rams +1.5
Fortenbaugh: The Rams are coming off that stunning 23-20 loss to the previously winless Jets. The good news is that Los Angeles tends to respond well after a loss, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS after a defeat this season, winning by a healthy 9.7 points per game. There's been a lot of talk about Seattle's improved defense, but look at the quarterbacks it has faced the past four weeks: Carson Wentz, Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold, Dwayne Haskins. Maybe we pump the brakes a bit on that narrative?
Pick: Rams +1.5
Marks: The Rams losing to the Jets last week has Seattle favored. The Rams are the better team but underestimated the Jets and probably had their sights on the Seahawks, knowing the NFC West title would be on the line.
McVay has had success against Seattle, going 5-2 since taking the Rams job. The Rams' defense will stifle Seattle's passing attack, and Russell Wilson will have another difficult afternoon against Aaron Donald and his crew.
Pick: Rams +7.5 in teaser with Panthers +8.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 49.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Johnson: There is a lot to sift through when it comes to the data we have from both of these teams this season. Not only has the Philly offense been more efficient surrounding Jalen Hurts, but the Cowboys have had four different quarterbacks play games this season. Andy Dalton has been significantly better than the run of Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert under center.
Hurts and the Eagles have been especially deadly on the ground, racking up 363 yards against the Saints and Cardinals. Both defenses the Eagles have seen rank above average defending the run; the Cowboys rank 27th. I project this total at 51.8, after making adjustments for the way both teams are currently constructed. That's good enough for me to go over at 49.5.
Pick: Over 49.5
Bearman: The Eagles' offense is significantly better with Hurts at quarterback, and the Cowboys can't stop anyone. After spending the entire year near the bottom of the offensive rankings, the Eagles have scored 24 points against the Saints and passed for 305 yards against the Cardinals. The Cowboys have given up 33+ points eight times this year, including three of their past four games. Both teams can still win the NFC East and should be pulling out all the stops. I am not comfortable laying 2.5 on the road with Philadelphia, and I definitely don't trust Dallas. I'm expecting to see a lot of points in a 30-27 type game.
Pick: Over 49.5
Marks: The Eagles starting Jalen Hurts at quarterback, has opened the rushing lanes for Sanders, and is utilized in the Eagles passing game as well. Expect Miles Sanders to have a huge day against a Cowboys rushing defense that each week gets destroyed by opposing backfields, allowing over 5 yards per carry. Fly Eagle Fly!
Pick: Sanders over 102.5 rushing and receiving yards
Carolina Panthers at Washington (-2.5, 44.5)
Schatz: Carolina and Washington are basically tied in our DVOA ratings, so this pick is about two things: first, the fact that offense is more predictive of the future than defense. Washington is third on defense but 30th on offense; Carolina is 30th on defense but 10th on offense. Second, Washington's quarterback situation is a mess. Washington's pass DVOA drops from -24.7% for the season to -33.4% with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback.
Pick: Panthers +2.5
Marks: Haskins' poor decisions are causing too much outside noise for Washington this week. Meanwhile, this is a Panthers team that is a great road 'dog (5-0 ATS), and I'm sure it's excited to face former coach Ron Rivera. There has been a lot of buzz about Washington's defense of late, but it was the Panthers' defense that held Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense to 54 net yards in the second half last week. The Panthers' offense has enough firepower to win, let alone cover.
Pick: Panthers +8.5 in teaser with Rams +7.5, Bridgewater over 22.5 completions
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 48.5)
Kezirian: I believe this line will close higher than three points, so I want to grab the perceived value, and I also like this side. Eight weeks ago, the Chargers led in Denver by 21 points only to end up losing. I think the Bolts take care of business this time around behind standout rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. Broncos QB Drew Lock has done some nice things and the offense is effective on play-action passes to the flat, but that conservative approach also has limitations. The Chargers can strike for big plays, and that will be the difference.
Pick: Chargers -3
Marks: Phillip Lindsay is out Sunday, and I expect the Broncos to tee up Melvin Gordon III against his former team. In games where Gordon rolls solo, he is averaging over 80 rushing yards a game.
Pick: Gordon over 92.5 rushing and receiving yards
Saturday's games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5, 54) at Detroit Lions
Schatz: Mike Evans has gone under 57 receiving yards in three of his past four games. But the Lions really juice opponent passing stats this year. Opposing No. 1 receivers are averaging 73.5 yards against the Lions. And Evans maintains his place at the center of the Buccaneers' passing game. He's played at least 75% of snaps in every game this year but Week 4, while Antonio Brown's snaps have dropped below 50% the past two games. Football Outsiders estimates a 63% chance that Evans hits this prop.
Pick: Evans over 57.5 receiving yards (-115)
Clay: Tom Brady is averaging 2.3 passing touchdowns per game and has thrown three or more in five games this season. Four of those games were wins, and consider this: The Buccaneers' offense is averaging a massive 4.0 touchdowns per game in the team's nine wins, and that includes 2.7 passing scores per game. Brady has an elite matchup this week against a Detroit defense that has allowed three or more passing scores in six games this season, including three of its past four. In total, the Lions' defense has allowed a league-high 53 touchdowns (3.8 per game), including 29 through the air (fourth most). The Buccaneers are heavy favorites, which could lead to a poor game script for Brady, but he shouldn't have much trouble finding the end zone often. The generous juice makes this one worthwhile.
Pick: Brady over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+130)
Walder: This is a high line for a T.J. Hockenson. In order to justify that, we'd expect Hockenson to either average a high depth of target or high depth on his routes run per NFL Next Gen Stats (I usually use 3 seconds after the snap). He has neither. Hockenson is average for tight ends in both categories. The one concern is volume; his 24% target rate ranks seventh-most among tight ends with at least 150 routes run. But that's not enough to sway me from the under.
From the Bucs offense, I don't think Brown's opportunity is worth the receiving yards total posted here. Brown's expected completed air yards per game is just 30.1 -- less than half the prop. I've never studied it formally, but based on what I've seen this year I'd estimate that receivers' expected completed air yards per game generally is in the 65-75% range of their receiving yard props. While Brown is catching passes at an above average rate, given the throws he's been targeted on, I still think the under is the right side given the chances he's seeing.
Picks: Hockenson longest reception under 18.5 yards (-110); Brown under 62.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: Tampa is looking to better their postseason seed, meanwhile, the Lions have their focus on next season. Brady is averaging over 8 yards per pass attempt the last several weeks, and Sunday gets a juicy match up against a Lions team that is one of the worst in pressure rate and have allowed multiple touchdowns to opposing gunslingers this December. Expect Brady to target Mike Evans in the red zone (12 red zone targets), a trend we have seen all season.
Pick: Brady over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+130), Evans to score TD and Bucs win (+130)
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5, 48.5)
Bearman: The Cardinals are peaking at the right time, coming off an exhilarating win over the Eagles and a shutdown of the Giants the week before. This week they get the playing-out-the-string 49ers. Arizona can still win the NFC West with two wins and some help. The Cardinals are averaging 29 points per game over the past three weeks, with Kyler Murray passing for seven touchdowns and running for another. San Francisco is a mess on both sides of the ball, with Nick Mullens throwing at least one pick in each of the past six games, and now he's out as well. The 49ers just lost back-to-back games against NFC East teams, ending their playoff chances.
Pick: Cardinals -4.5
Fortenbaugh: The defending NFC champs have lost six of their past seven, by 11.1 points per game, while surrendering an average of 30.8 points. It's gotten so bad that Kyle Shanahan is turning to third-string quarterback C.J. Beathard. Complicating matters further is Murray, who the 49ers have never covered the spread against (0-2-1). San Francisco's Achilles' heel on defense is the mobile, dual-threat quarterback, a description Murray fits like a glove. One team is chasing a playoff spot, the other is finishing a lost season. Lay the points.
Pick: Cardinals -4.5
Marks: : Kyle Juszczyk has 6 receptions for 70 yards in his last 4 games, and all 4 games he posted 6 receiving yards or more. 3.5 receiving yards seems like a small prop to achieve!
Pick: Juszczyk over 3.5 receiving yards
Miami Dolphins (-3, 47.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Bearman: The Dolphins' defense leads the NFL in takeaways (26), points allowed per game (18.4) and third-down conversions (32.5%), and has held eight of the past 10 opponents under 21 points. But the offense has topped 22 points just once in the past five games. The Raiders are trending in the wrong direction, and Derek Carr may be out. Backup QB Marcus Mariota was able to get the offense going last week against the Chargers, but he was still mistake-prone with one pick and almost a couple more.
Pick: Under 47.5
Marks: The Dolphins are still fighting for a playoff spot and now take on a Raiders offense that has struggled of late. Running back Josh Jacobs has averaged only 3 yards per carry since Week 10, and Carr is dealing with a groin injury (Mariota is expected to get the start). The Dolphins have a top-five defense and won't make things easy. Wide receiver Lynn Bowden has contributed to the Dolphins' offense the last three games, and I like this matchup for him going against the team that traded him away. Look for the Dolphins to tee him up.
Pick: Miami -3, Darren Waller over 56.5 receiving yards
Friday's game
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-7, 51)
Schatz: Don't overreact to Drew Brees having a poor game against Kansas City. Brees' performance in Weeks 1-10 tells us more than one bad game does. Take out the four Taysom Hill games and the Saints' weighted offensive DVOA (giving more weight to recent games) goes from 6.0% to 11.7%. Obviously this works on the other side of the ball, too -- any proper consideration of the Saints' defense removes the Week 12 game when Denver didn't have a quarterback -- but overall, the Saints are probably better than their yearlong numbers. And the Saints' overall weighted DVOA is more than 35 percentage points higher than Minnesota's. New Orleans is in the top 10 in all three phases, and Minnesota is not in the top 10 in any of them.
Pick: Saints -7
Kezirian: I realize the Vikings won in New Orleans in last year's playoffs, and a full seven points makes me feel like I am paying a tax. However, I just cannot justify backing Minnesota after such a disinterested performance last week against Chicago with so much at stake. Brees showed some rust in his return from injury, but I trust the New Orleans offense to handle its business against this leaky Minnesota secondary. If Kirk Cousins wins again at the Superdome, then so be it. I am taking the Saints in a teaser.
Pick: Saints -1 in teaser with Texans -2
Marks: The Vikings fooled me once last week, but not again! They have lost to both the Cowboys and the Bears the last few weeks, and neither can hold a candle to the Saints. Keep in mind, this is a revenge game for New Orleans, considering the Vikings put an end to the Saints' season last year. Brees looked rusty last week, but facing a Vikings defense that ranks 26th in pressure rate and allows over 30 points per game just might be what the football gods ordered. The Saints' defense is polar opposite, ranked second best, first in pressure rate and can stop the run, which will put a damper on the Vikings' play-action calls. The Saints roll, and Cousins will be forced to throw a lot to keep pace.
Pick: Saints -1 and over 45.5 in teaser; Cousins over 32.5 passing attempts (+100); Justin Jefferson over 4.5 receptions (-140); Emmanuel Sanders over 61.5 receiving yards (-115).