Last week we jumped on two division bets that, thanks to the Jets' win over the Rams, hold really good value going into these final two weeks of the season. Prior to that, we hit three playoff yes-no bets that will likely finish 2-1 (including a Ravens Super Bowl futures bet at +4000). Do any other teams currently offer value to win the Super Bowl? Yes, I think there are two, and this will likely be the last chance we get these teams at these prices.
I'll dive into my reasoning and some of the math behind these two futures bets, and then as is a weekly tradition now in the market watch, I'll compare my top 10 teams to ESPN's new Week 16 top 10. Let's get started.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.
New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl (+850)
I still consider the Saints to be the best team in the NFC, but I seem to be in the minority right now. The market prices the Packers as a bigger favorite (+550), and ESPN's FPI grades Green Bay better as well. I'm familiar with the current "defense doesn't matter" movement, and there's certainly a chance that I am weighing the defensive side of the ball too heavily in my model. But the discrepancy between the level the Saints' defense is performing relative to the Packers is too big to overlook.
The Saints' defense ranks top three in success rate both against the run and the pass. They rank No. 3 in adjusted EPA. The Packers' defense ranks 21st, 12th and 17th in those same metrics, respectively. While the Green Bay offense has a leg up on the Saints, both teams still rank top 10 in the NFL in success rate and adjusted EPA as well. The gap between these two teams defensively is larger than the offenses, and while offense is more predictive long term compared to the defensive side of the ball, as a whole I still rate the Saints the slightly better team.
With that, getting a +850 Super Bowl price on New Orleans right now means the Saints only need to win it all 10.5% of the time for this proposition to break even for us. I currently project the Saints to win the Super Bowl 12.9% of the time, or a true price of +675. FPI, which likes the Packers more than the Saints, still has New Orleans being crowned champion 12.6% of the time (closer to +700). I'm taking the +850 before likely wins against the Vikings and Panthers solidify the No. 2 seed for the Saints in the NFC.
Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl (+1000)
I will be forever bullish on Baltimore's chances, but the Bills have taken over the No. 3 spot in the AFC (and aren't far off from the Ravens). What's nice about the addition of a Buffalo future right now for those who grabbed the Ravens a few weeks back with me is that they are most likely set to match up against each other in the first round. It's not necessarily a hedge on the Ravens bet, but it guarantees us a +4000 or +900 in the second round of the playoffs, facing either the Steelers or the Colts. I'm not scared of either of those teams at this point and like the prospects of either of those prices in an AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs.
The Bills have been peaking at the right time, and they'd project out even better if I only used data from, say, the last month of the season. Really, looking back two months, they were the Kyler Murray-to-DeAndre Hopkins Hail Mary away from having won eight straight games heading into Week 16. The Bills are a legitimate contender, and at +1000 (9.1% break-even price), I show slight value, regardless of the implied Ravens insurance (+925 true price).
ESPN Power Rankings
Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
Bills (11-3)
Green Bay Packers (11-3)
Saints (10-4)
Tennessee Titans (10-4)
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3)
Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
Seattle Seahawks (10-4)
Cleveland Browns (10-4)
Indianapolis Colts (10-4)
Preston's power rankings
Chiefs
Saints +2.5
Ravens +3.3
Packers +3.4
Bills +3.8
Buccaneers +4.0
Seahawks +4.4
Steelers +4.6
Rams +4.8
Titans +4.9
I agree with ESPN's Week 16 Power Rankings, for the most part. We both upgraded the Bills and downgraded the Steelers. No surprises there. What sticks out to me the most, however, is that while I downgraded the Rams after their loss to the Jets, they dropped from No. 6 to No. 13 in the ESPN rankings. I get that it was the Jets, but come on now. There aren't 12 teams in the NFL better than the Rams. I have them only one point on a neutral field from being in the top five!
The Rams rank No. 1 in the entire NFL in raw EPA differential. Adjusting for strength of schedule, they drop to No. 2. They rank No. 7 in success rate offensively and No. 4 in success rate defensively against the pass (No. 13 against the run). Variance happens. Bad performances happen. These rankings account for that Jets game. I wish my numbers pointed to a buy-low opportunity on the Rams here this week, but the market isn't overreacting either.