The Mariners’ system is really on the downswing after many high draft picks didn’t pan out and their current GM Jerry Dipoto traded a number of prospects, some of whom were themselves on the downswing anyway, to bolster the major league roster. That leaves the system full of back-end starter types and extra outfielders but very light on potential stars.
AL West reports: A's | Angels | Astros | Mariners | Rangers
1. Kyle Lewis, OF (ranked No. 68)
2. Tyler O’Neill, OF (just missed)
3. Nick Neidert, RHP
4. Mitch Haniger, OF
5. Max Povse, RHP
6. Joe Rizzo, 3B
7. Andrew Moore, RHP
8. Chris Torres, SS
9. Bryson Brigman, SS
10. Dan Altavilla, P
Non-top 100 guys
Nick Neidert has mostly average stuff, with a future plus changeup, and excellent control right now and plenty of deception in his delivery to at least keep low-minors hitters from squaring him up at 89-91.
Mitch Haniger is a fairly toolsy guy for a college product who, at 26, hasn’t had any real major league opportunity yet. His big Triple-A power breakout last year came in the hitter-friendly PCL’s Western half, but he might be a 15-20 homer guy with some speed, walks and strikeouts. He's probably a good fourth outfielder in the end, but I’d give you even-money on him having some league-average years as a starter.
Max Povse is a 6-8 strike-thrower with a 55 fastball and 55 changeup, with good downhill plane to get ground balls but no real swing-and-miss pitch. With his control and height, he projects as a fourth starter, more if he develops a real breaking ball.
Joe Rizzo projects to hit for average, but he’s going to have to work just to stay anywhere on the infield, and I don’t see the swing or any projection for him to come into power, so it’s really about the ability to hit and get on base. He does have a solid swing and appears to have a good eye.
Andrew Moore, a 6-foot right-hander whom the Mariners took in the second round in 2015, threw a ton of strikes at high-A and Double-A in his full-season debut, working with an average fastball/changeup combination but not missing enough bats to project as more than a back-end starter.
Chris Torres has a chance to stay at shortstop in the long run and be a contact/on-base guy without power, although his U.S. debut last summer was a little erratic and showed he’s not quite as advanced as was hoped a year before.
Bryson Brigman played short and second in his pro debut after the Mariners took him in the third round last June. He’s a contact/speed guy whose arm is probably too light for shortstop, and he’ll never have power, which makes him tough to project as a regular at second or even in center field.
Dan Altavilla, the Mariners’ fifth-round pick in 2014, raced to the majors last year after the Mariners moved him to relief. He throws his plus fastball and plus slider for strikes, although he could use something to help keep lefties from getting to him as they did in Double-A. His fastball has good late, riding life and should break a lot of right-handers’ bats.
Dan Vogelbach (11) should only DH, but he can hit and has plus power he can legitimately get to. It’s a short swing and a simple approach, and as he has moved up the ladder he has shown good plate discipline and ability to recognize off-speed stuff from right-handers. He still has a platoon split, though, and might always have that weakness against lefties.
Outfielder Ben Gamel (12) doesn’t have much power but should be an above-average defender in a corner and hit for average, even against lefties, enough to be at least an excellent fourth outfielder with a 30-40 percent chance of becoming an average regular.
The Mariners moved D.J. Peterson (13), their first-round pick in 2013, to first base, and he continued to struggled to get on base enough or hit for enough power for him to be more than an up-and-down guy. Lefty Dillon Overton (14) might be a fifth starter, getting there with command despite fringy stuff, although he’s going to have to not give up a homer every two innings for that to happen.
Brayan Hernandez (15) played in the DSL and AZL at age 18 last summer, looking good in the outfield with above-average run and arm tools, but he’s so crude at the plate that he probably shouldn’t see full-season ball until 2018. Nineteen-year-old right-hander Aneurys Zabala (16) was 96-99 in the AZL last summer with a good curveball, walking 15 guys in 28 innings as a reliever. Brazilian right-hander Thyago Vieira (17) was 97-102 when I first saw him in the AFL, with a big, high-effort delivery and over-the-top arm slot that makes it hard for him to throw anything else. Shortstop Drew Jackson (18) can run and throw but has no power and a swing that just puts the ball on the ground all the time.
2017 impact: Haniger might be their everyday right fielder this year, with Gamel perhaps taking a bench spot because he can play center. Altavilla is probably ready for a middle-relief job.
Sleeper: Neidert still has some physical projection yet, and if that ticks his fastball up to the low to mid-90s he would have a better chance to be more than a back-end starter, maybe a potential No. 3.
The fallen: The Mariners took Alex Jackson sixth overall in the 2014 draft and immediately moved him from catcher to right field. He hit .233/.327/.399 over two and a half years in Seattle’s system, never advancing past low-A, and was traded this winter for Povse and reliever Rob Whalen, along with 2012 third-rounder Tyler Pike.