The Padres’ system quickly became one of the deepest in all of baseball, neck and neck with Atlanta’s for depth but lacking the latter system’s near-in talent. The Padres went to the wall in the July 2 market, signing what seemed like every other prospect available, and went big for ceiling in the 2016 draft class, especially with high-upside arms. They’ve also added some very strong prospects in trades, including four of their top eight and several others scattered throughout their top 20. It’s going to take time, and this ownership group will have to be patient as they wait for all of this talent, most of it below the U.S. drinking age, to reach the big leagues.
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1. Anderson Espinoza, RHP (Ranked No. 21)
2. Cal Quantrill, RHP (Ranked No. 23)
3. Manuel Margot, CF (Ranked No. 24)
4. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS (Ranked No. 47)
5. Adrian Morejon, LHP (Ranked No. 80)
6. Jacob Nix, RHP
7. Hunter Renfroe, OF
8. Javier Guerra, SS
9. Luis Urias, 2B
10. Mason Thompson, RHP
Right-hander Jacob Nix took a nice step forward last year with an improved changeup and better fastball command. He isn’t that far from being a top-100 prospect, as he has at least No. 3 starter ceiling and his probability keeps increasing.
Hunter Renfroe has 70 raw power and can play right field, but he doesn’t pick up spin well at all and showed awful plate discipline in a great hitter’s environment in the PCL. Javier Guerra had a lost year with a medical issue that often kept him off the field or even away from practice, but a year ago he was a top-100 prospect who played the heck out of shortstop and had above-average power.
Luis Urias is a very heady player who can hit and could definitely handle second base every day, although the Padres are splitting his time between there and shortstop. He has below-average power but has enough strength in his hands to make hard contact and profile as a regular. Mason Thompson missed almost his entire senior year after Tommy John surgery, but the Padres were impressed by what they saw in workouts and took him in the third round. He showed up pumping mid-90s with a 60 changeup, and if he’s healthy he might blow some people away this year.
Eric Lauer (11) is a command lefty who can really pitch, a limited ceiling guy but with enough stuff that I think he has a fifth-starter floor right now. Right-hander Reggie Lawson (12) had first-round potential after the summer and fall of 2015, but some genius changed his delivery by shortening his stride, and suddenly his 95 mph fastball became 92, his curveball backed up, and his command dropped. He’s athletic and loose and why would you ever do this to a kid with his kind of arm? The Padres took him late on Day 1 and are trying to undo the delivery changes to get him rotating more and finishing better out front.
Right-hander Logan Allen (13) came over in the Craig Kimbrel trade and was hitting 95 late in 2016 after missing two months with elbow soreness. He has a great starter’s build and two average off-speed pitches already. Right-hander Walker Lockett (14) missed almost all of 2013 and 2014 due to injuries and threw 87 unremarkable innings in 2015, so he’d fallen off the radar before his 2016 breakout that carried him all the way up to Triple-A and onto the team’s 40-man roster. He gets on top the ball well from his 6-foot-5 frame and sinks it enough to get a 56 percent ground-ball rate last year, and that plus his control will get him to the big leagues, where he might be a fourth starter.
Jorge Ona (15) was the Padres' other big get in the July 2 period along with Morejon. Ona is also Cuban, a right fielder with a good swing and solid approach, likely to hit for doubles power. Hudson Potts (16), formerly Hudson Sanchez, was a surprise pick at the end of the first round, where the Padres had back-to-back selections and took him and Lauer. He’s a third baseman with a good arm and a very simple swing that might lead to future power, and he just turned 18 in October. The Padres acquired right-hander Chris Paddack (17) in the June trade for Fernando Rodney, only to see him blow out his elbow in his third start in their system. He’s a fastball-changeup guy with a 65-grade change and fastball thrown up to 95 but he needs a better third pitch.
They acquired first baseman Josh Naylor (18) in a separate trade with the Marlins, the ill-fated Andrew Cashner/Colin Rea deal, after Naylor had returned from a suspension for an incident in which he stabbed teammate Stone Garrett in the hand (he said it was a prank, Garrett disputed that, I concede I don’t know what exactly happened). Naylor has huge power and won’t turn 20 until June, but needs to commit himself to becoming a better hitter first so the power can play, and first base is probably always going to be a challenge for him.
Carlos Asuaje (19), the fourth part of the Kimbrel trade, is just 5-foot-9 but has a long track record of putting the ball in play, and because he can play second, third or left he’s a solid bench option. Right-hander Phil Maton (20) was the Padres' 20th-round pick in 2015 out of Louisiana Tech, started the year in Low-A, and steamrolled through three levels to finish with Triple-A El Paso; he gets a very high spin-rate fastball and struck out 45 percent of the right-handed batters he faced in 2016.
Enyel de los Santos (21), acquired in a minor trade with the Mariners in 2015, sits in the mid-90s on his fastball with a compact arm action and solid-average control, although he could use a better breaking ball to stay a starter. Shortstop Jose Rondon (22) has been around forever but turns 23 this year; he’s probably just a utility infielder because his bat hasn’t developed.
Others of note: Former shortstop Franchy Cordero is in the outfield now and a lot bigger than when the Padres first signed him in 2011; it’s power over hit, but he could get to a 45 hit tool, which would make him at least a backup outfielder who can play all three spots. … They added lefty Jose Castillo from Tampa Bay in the Wil Myers trade, and somehow sneaked him through the Rule 5 draft even though he has a live arm. … They converted catcher Jose Ruiz to the mound and he was so good, sitting 95-99, that they had to put him on the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. … Dinelson Lamet has the delivery and size to be a starter but lacks a third pitch to get lefties out. … Center fielder Buddy Reed can run and defend, but I question whether he’s going to hit from either side of the plate. … Center fielder Michael Gettys can run, defend, throw and even has power, but doesn’t have a swing geared toward contact. … They have a reliever named Henry Henry, and I’m told he has a great arm with stuff like Guillermo Mota, but really, Henry Henry. Milo Minderbinder would have a field day.
The Padres’ July 2 class last year was ridiculously strong, led by Morejon and Ona, but also included Venezuelan shortstop and defensive wizard Gabriel Arias; Dominican shortstop Luis Almanzar, who has more bat than Arias but less glove; and Tirso Ornelas, a Mexican-born outfielder with a really sound swing.
They also took three guys in the Rule 5 draft. I don’t see how they’ll carry even two of these players, let alone all three, but they are prospects. Right-hander Miguel Diaz came from Milwaukee and had hit 99 mph in short outings for the Brewers, but his secondary stuff lags behind. Catcher Luis Torrens came from the Yankees and at one point was a serious prospect behind the plate, but after shoulder surgery his arm really hasn’t come back. Shortstop Allen Cordoba is intriguing; he was only in short-season ball last summer, but showed really good feel to hit for a 20-year-old and has now hit .352/.414/.457 in two seasons in the U.S. He’s just OK at shortstop and a fair bet to end up at third base. Could he hit enough in the big leagues this year after a four-level jump, considering that he’s never seen any full-season pitching? I doubt it, although the Padres may be willing to carry his bat all year to have him in their system going forward.
2017 impact: Margot should be their center fielder this year, although he’ll have to beat out Travis Jankowski for the job. Renfroe will probably be their right fielder. Asuaje could be their utility infielder. Of the three Rule 5 guys, I think Cordoba is the best prospect, while Diaz would be the easiest to carry because you can hide a 12th man on your staff, and Torrens is the most likely of the three to return to his original club.
Sleeper: The Padres have no shortage of breakout candidates, but Thompson has already flashed the potential to make a huge leap next year, because his stuff and size could point to mid-rotation upside or better.
The fallen: Walker Weickel was the 55th overall pick in the 2012 draft, but his projection never came and he had problems keeping a consistent delivery. He blew out his elbow in 2015, needing Tommy John surgery, and has a career 5.42 ERA in the minors since he signed.