This system is extremely top-heavy, similar to the White Sox’s but with a little more depth. The Dodgers have four elite prospects, as well as one or two more guys who might get there in a year, but even the guys in the back of their top 10 have some legitimate questions about their roles or durability going forward. It might hinder their ability to make trades, but players who aren’t stars probably aren’t going to play much for the big club anyway.
NL West reports: Diamondbacks | Rockies | Dodgers | Padres | Giants
1. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF (Ranked No. 6)
2. Alex Verdugo, OF (Ranked No. 31)
3. Walker Buehler, RHP (Ranked No. 40)
4. Yadier Alvarez, RHP (Ranked No. 46)
5. Yusniel Diaz, OF
6. Austin Barnes, C/2B
7. Gavin Lux, SS
8. Omar Estevez, 2B/SS
9. Mitch White, RHP
10. Jordan Sheffield, RHP
Yusniel Diaz had a mildly disappointing U.S. debut, mostly because he couldn’t stay healthy, playing through some injuries and missing over a month at one point. Given his pure bat speed, I expected a higher average and contact rate, although I don’t think he’s going to have big power and if he tries to pull the ball too much -- all his homers in 2016 were to left -- he’s going to get too rotational.
Austin Barnes is in his own little class of prospects. He’s a catcher-utility player who might be good enough to play every day behind the plate because of his receiving skills, but might have more value playing multiple positions so the team doesn’t have to kill a roster spot with a pure backup.
Gavin Lux is a true shortstop with a high baseball IQ and solid approach at the plate, but has some extra movement in his swing that the Dodgers will have to iron out so he can get the bat head to the zone on time. Omar Estevez was signed along with Diaz in the Dodgers’ big 2015 July 2 class. He was overmatched in Low-A at 18 for the first half of the season, but made some adjustments to the better pitching he was facing and started making more and better contact as the season went on while playing solid defense at second.
Mitch White was a surprise pick in the second round, a right-hander at Santa Clara who blew up really late in the spring, but the Dodgers’ first-year area guy in Northern California, Tom Kunis, saw White enough for L.A. to jump up and take him. White’s heat sits at 93 mph and has touched 96 in longer stints, and his secondary stuff came on over the summer. He’s a solid athlete but has had injury issues in the past which likely also kept teams off him early in the spring. It’s not terribly meaningful, but White has a pro ERA of 0.00 after 22 innings.
Jordan Sheffield, whose brother Justus is a top 100 prospect, is a short right-hander with a lightning-quick arm and plus changeup, but it’s a reliever’s arm swing right now and he has the usual undersized right-hander’s problem of a flat fastball. He is very athletic, and if he makes the two-seamer his primary fastball that might mitigate the last issue. He should start for now but there’s high reliever risk.
Willie Calhoun (11) can really hit but has no position right now. He can’t play second base and is way too short -- I shook his hand at the Futures Game, and he’s truly my height -- for first, so you either stick him in left and live with the consequences, or he ends up a DH in the American League. But the bat is legit and he will play awhile in the big leagues even if he’s a 300 AB guy rather than a true regular.
Brock Stewart (12) was a two-way guy at Illinois State who broke out last year, his second year pitching full-time. He’s throwing up to 96 mph complemented with an above-average changeup and feel for a slider, with good fourth-starter potential. Catcher Will Smith (13) is pretty solid across the board and has a high floor as a backup with a good chance to end up an everyday guy if he can develop even 45 power.
Fourth-rounder D.J. Peters (14) is a tall, lanky center fielder whom everyone comps to Jayson Werth because of their physical similarities; they also share the hole on the inner half that Werth eventually closed up in his late 20s to become a star. Brendon Davis (15) struggled as an 18-year-old in Low-A, but he’s got a projectable body with potentially plus raw power, maybe even better, based on the size of his frame and his dad’s build. He’s a shortstop for now, but if the body fills out he might be a power-hitting second or third baseman instead. He won’t turn 20 until late July.
Dustin May (16) is a very athletic, projectable right-hander from Texas who often gets compared to Jacob deGrom for his athleticism and hair, although May’s delivery is rougher and he doesn’t have deGrom’s fastball life. Keibert Ruiz (17) is an interesting low-level sleeper, a potential everyday catcher who might be average across the board. He raked in short-season Ogden this year as an 18-year-old.
Outfielder Mitch Hansen (18) looked far less raw at the plate last year, although this will be his age-21 season and he has yet to see full-season ball. Right-hander Josh Sborz (19) might surface this year as a middle reliever now that he has been converted to the bullpen. The Dodgers moved Cuban signee Yaisel Sierra off their 40-man roster early in the year while he was struggling, but he was much more effective after a midyear move to the bullpen, showing more velo and executing a plan rather than just throwing.
2017 impact: Stewart is in the mix of extra starters and long relief candidates who’ll log some big league time this year, given the fragility of the Dodgers’ current rotation. Barnes should spend all year with the big club as a part-time catcher and backup infielder. While Bellinger has no place to play right now, I expect him to perform well enough in Triple-A that he all but forces a call-up by year's end.
Sleeper: White came on so late this spring at Santa Clara that he was underscouted by the industry as a whole, and his stuff continued to improve after he signed with the Dodgers as their 2016 second-rounder. If he’s durable enough to start, the Dodgers got a minor steal.
The fallen: The Dodgers spent over $53 million on Cuban hitters Alex Guerrero, who had no position, and Erisbel Arruebarrena, who couldn’t hit and turned out to have 20 makeup. They released Guerrero last June while they have suspended Arruebarrena for being a knucklehead, and the two combined to produce -0.6 WAR in 288 total PA.