Organization ranking: 21
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Giants prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Christian Arroyo, SS (65)
2. Tyler Beede, RHP
3. Lucius Fox, SS
4. Phil Bickford, RHP
5. Clayton Blackburn, RHP
6. Jalen Miller, SS
7. Jordan Johnson, RHP
8. Adalberto Mejia, LHP
9. Chris Shaw, 1B
10. Sam Coonrod, RHP
Overview
Tyler Beede was their first-round pick in 2014, but he started throwing an upper-80s sinker more than his 92-95 mph four-seamer from college, resulting in a huge drop in strikeouts. The body is still there and he's certainly bright enough to make some adjustments, but without that power his ceiling is quite a bit lower. Lucius Fox was the team's big splash on July 2nd, a Bahamian-born kid who spent a few years at American Heritage School in Florida but moved back to the Bahamas to qualify as an international free agent last winter. He landed a $6 million bonus that was more than all but one drafted player in 2015. He's a 70 runner and switch-hitter with a line-drive swing, probably a below-average power guy but with enough strength to hit. He's quick enough for shortstop but his actions aren't great, and he had some minor arm issues that kept him off the field for part of instructs.
Phil Bickford throws up to 99 mph and occasionally shows a plus slider, but has had shoulder and back problems, with many teams viewing his medical records and his arm action as signs he'll end up in the bullpen. He'll work as a starter now and try to develop the slider and a better changeup. Clayton Blackburn is an MLB-ready fifth starter, 87-91 mph with average secondary stuff and plus command, a big guy who gets a little deception in his delivery but probably won't miss enough bats to be more than a No. 5. Jalen Miller was the team's third-round pick, a potentially elite defender at short whose bat is very light, with a handsy swing and not much strength yet to make hard contact.
Jordan Johnson is the system's sleeper, a 22nd-round pick with a mid-90s fastball, curveball and change, and a delivery he repeats well for command, but with no history of staying healthy -- he threw 59 1/3 innings in 2015, and threw 9 2/3 innings total at Cal State Northridge in 2012-13. Adalberto Mejia delivers 90-95 mph heat from the left side with an average slider and changeup and a below-average curveball. He’s a strike-thrower without a plus pitch and with a bit of a slow arm for the velocity he gets. Chris Shaw was one of the best hitters in the Cape Cod League in 2014, but he had a bad spring at Boston College including a broken hamate bone, slipping to the Giants in the supplemental round (31st overall). He led the Northwest League in homers after signing, and led in slugging percentage by 49 points and, if he can just play adequate defense at first, might end up a huge steal. Sam Coonrod is 90-95 mph with a hard slider and fringy changeup, and probably winds up a reliever in the end.
Right-hander Chase Johnson (11) has a plus fastball but no real second above-average pitch, struggling to keep his delivery online as a starter but potentially a very good reliever. (One statistical oddity of his 2015 season: He made a six-inning relief appearance on August 14th, striking out 14. He made 21 starts but didn't reach double-digit strikeouts in any of them.) Andy Suarez (13) is a southpaw from the University of Miami who had labrum surgery and an oblique strain while a Hurricane; he’s a command/control guy with four pitches but nothing that grades as plus. Outfielder Mac Williamson (14) has power and some speed, with the ability to play plus defense in right, but his bat is a tick slow and he probably won't get to enough fastballs to be a regular. Catcher Aramis Garcia (15) is a catch-and-throw guy (he nailed 40 percent of runners in 2015) with some pop but limited bat speed, and he's not that polished on the "catch" side of the catch-and-throw bit.
Michael Santos (16) lost most of the year to a biceps strain, but has been up to 93 mph with good spin on his curveball, as well as a lot of projection left in his frame. Not-my-cousin Derek Law (17), back from Tommy John surgery, throws 92-94 mph with a hard 12-to-6 curveball and should see the major league bullpen this season. Right-handed reliever Rodolfo Martinez (18) is clocked at up to 98 mph with control but not command. Outfielder Hunter Cole has some bat speed and ability to use the whole field, not enough of a hit tool or power to be more than a good backup. Ray Black will sit 98-101 mph, but with poor control and no real second pitch. It's fun to watch, though.
2016 impact
Blackburn could take a few turns in the rotation if needed. Lefty Ty Blach has stalled as a starter but could be an outstanding weapon out of the pen, 90-93 with a curve and slider. Stephen Okert, another lefty, has more velocity but not Blach's feel or secondary stuff.
The fallen
Kyle Crick (12) still has the great arm strength, but after an oblique strain ruined his 2014, he was worse in 2015, walking 66 in 63 innings and actually pitching worse after a midseason move to the bullpen.
Sleeper
That's Jordan Johnson, although I'd also throw Shaw in there now that he seems to be healthy and has regained his power.