Organization ranking: 20
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Padres prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Manuel Margot, OF (25)
2. Javier Guerra, SS (34)
3. Hunter Renfroe, OF
4. Colin Rea, RHP
5. Ruddy Giron, SS
6. Jose Rondon, SS
7. Jacob Nix, RHP
8. Austin Smith, RHP
9. Logan Allen, LHP
10. Luis Perdomo, RHP
Overview
Well, thank goodness for Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, because without the Craig Kimbrel trade, the Padres would not have had a top 100 prospect. But that deal returned two, as well as two other good prospects. Hunter Renfroe was a top 100 guy last winter, but questions about his hit tool and bat speed were answered in the wrong way in 2015, and it's likely he ends up a fourth outfielder bat with above-average tools everywhere else, doing some damage with a low OBP but adding value on defense. Colin Rea looks like a high-floor fourth-starter prospect: Nothing flashy, but a guy with great feel to pitch and an easy delivery. Ruddy Giron is an outstanding makeup guy who's a little stretched defensively at shortstop, with a thicker build that limits his lateral agility, but he has the hands and arm for the position and would probably be excellent at third base. He has a natural feel to hit with some power, because he can get the bat head out to the ball quickly and with hand strength. In contrast, Jose Rondon is a true shortstop and also has bat speed and the size now for a touch of power; he suffered an olecranon fracture over the summer, which may have been a preexisting injury, and it was a lost year for him developmentally.
Jacob Nix and Austin Smith were the Padres' first two picks in the 2015 draft after they lost their first-round selection for signing James Shields. Nix is the more advanced pitcher, with a ready-now breaking ball and usually complemented with 92 to 95 mph heat. He’s very strong and athletic, and he has an aggressive approach that should help him cruise through the low minors. Smith is a slightly better athlete and might show the better changeup, but his breaking ball and fastball command lag behind Nix's. Logan Allen was prospect No. 3 received in that Kimbrel deal. He was the Red Sox' eighth-round pick in 2015. He's throwing 90 to 94 mph with two solid secondary offerings already and has a good body and frame to stay as a starter. He walked one of 91 batters he faced in two short-season leagues this summer after signing and should go to the Midwest League at 19. Luis Perdomo came from the Cardinals in the Rule 5 draft, showing a plus fastball and plus change that should let him not only stick this year in the Padres' bullpen but actually contribute.
Infielder Luis Urias (11) is short but strong, a contact guy who just needs to get into some power and very capable at second base. He has walked more than he has struck out in his brief pro career, and then this winter at age 18 was hitting second for Obregon in the Mexican Winter League, posting a .305/.385/.338 line. If he gets to even 40 power, he's a big leaguer, maybe even a starter because of the OBP potential. Dinelson Lamet (12) came late to pitching and signed at age 20 in the Dominican Republic as a 6-foot-4 right-hander who averages 92 to 93 mph with a tight, high-spin slider and a very quick arm but no real changeup yet. Phil Maton (13) has an average fastball in the 90 to 93 mph range that is complemented with a plus curveball that has a very tight, hard rotation; he is probably a reliever now but was a starter in college for Louisiana Tech. He was the Padres' 20th-round pick as a senior and punched out 58 of 126 hitters in the short-season Northwest League (for which he was, clearly, way too advanced).
The Padres grabbed right-hander Enyel de los Santos (14) from the Mariners this winter when dumping Joaquin Benoit; he throws 90 to 93 mph with life -- generating a 58 percent ground-ball rate last year -- and has a starter's body and easy arm action. Right-hander Jose Torres (15), acquired from Oakland in the Yonder Alonso trade, throws 92 to 95 mph with great control but needs a consistent second pitch among his slider and change to be a potential eighth-inning guy. Carlos Asuaje (16) is the fourth prospect from the Kimbrel trade. He is an undersized second baseman who just has a good feel to hit, with a little pop and a short swing that makes a lot of contact; he's probably a utility infielder but one coaches and managers will love. He's also a fringe-average runner, which does limit his value as a bench guy.
Travis Jankowski (17) can run and handle center field, but the bat is too light for him to be a regular. Michael Gettys (18) has enormous upside, with an 80-grade arm, 70 speed and potentially 70 defense in center, but it's a 20 bat right now, with 162 strikeouts (31 percent) and 28 walks in the Midwest League last year. He has had trouble finding a consistent swing, hitting for power but never contact; but even when his swing was steady last year, it didn't work.
The Padres also have several hard-throwing relievers with command and/or second-pitch issues, like Ryan Butler, who can reach 100 mph (and who was recently suspended for violating baseball's minor league drug program for a second time), and Jimmy Brasoban, who can throw up to 97 mph with a plus slider and no command. Also keep in mind right-hander Jose Castillo, acquired from Tampa Bay in the Wil Myers trade, as he has been clocked throwing up to 95 mph and has a quick arm but hasn't pitched much and struggled in Low-A last year at age 19.
2016 impact
Rea belongs in the Padres' rotation now, certainly over Brandon Maurer, who has been penciled in as the fourth starter. Also, one of Jankowski or Alex Dickerson could make the team as an extra outfielder.
The fallen
Donavan Tate was the third overall pick in 2009 and came back from a year lost to a torn Achilles' tendon to hit .211/.290/.334 in the California League. He left to sign with the Dodgers as a minor league free agent after the season.
Sleeper
Lamet debuted in pro ball in the Dominican Summer League in 2014, went right from there to the Midwest League, and even without a good third pitch had an outstanding season, mostly by dominating right-handed hitters. Whether it's a change or a split, he's a third pitch away from being a potential No. 3 starter.