Organization ranking: 28
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Mariners prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Alex Jackson, RF (95)
2. Luiz Gohara, LHP
3. Edwin Diaz, RHP
4. Tyler O'Neill, RF
5. D.J. Peterson, 1B
6. Nick Neidert, RHP
7. Boog Powell, OF
8. Luis Liberato, OF
9. Christopher Torres, SS
10. Jio Orozco, RHP
Overview
Gohara has the tools to be a stud starter, but he doesn't have the makeup or the results, which kept him off my top 100. Diaz looks as if he'll be a very good reliever, showing three pitches, including a fastball that's 92-95 mph as a starter. However, he hasn't had the command he needs to start because there's still too much energy in the delivery for him to repeat it.
O'Neill came into the season too bulked up, but as he got his body into baseball shape, his swing calmed down and he started to produce. He hit .289/.352/.629 from June 1 on (in the hitter-friendly California League), with 78 Ks and 21 unintentional walks in that span, a huge improvement over his first two months. He has the power and the arm for right field, but must show he can control the strike zone like that for more than three months at a stretch. Peterson didn't hit in Double-A, got a weird promotion to Triple-A in August and went 3-for-14 there. First base is the only position he can play in the majors, and the bat is going to have to resurface to carry him.
Neidert was the Mariners' first pick (second round) in 2015, a command right-hander with a good changeup but lacking a breaking ball. He had elbow tendinitis in May and was shut down; however, he was able to pitch briefly over the summer. Powell has some OBP skills and good contact rates, but doesn't hit for power or have the swing to generate power, so he's probably going to end up a fringe regular in a corner spot or a fourth outfielder who can play all three spots well as a backup. Liberato might be on the same path, a 19-year-old without great tools but with unusual feel to hit for his age.
Torres was supposed to sign with the Yankees in their big 2014 spending spree in international free agency, but the alleged deal fell apart and Torres signed with the Mariners instead. He's a pure shortstop with plus running speed, a switch-hitter with a short swing from the left side that should generate contact. Dominican Summer League stats mean little, possibly nothing at all, but it's nice to see that he drew 51 walks in 63 games, with a .429 OBP batting left-handed. Orozco can touch the mid-90s and is very competitive, with an average changeup and occasionally above-average curveball, although the delivery is rough and has to be cleaned up for him to be a starter.
I still have my doubts about Drew Jackson's (11) hit tool -- he barely hit in college, with no homers in his entire tenure at Stanford -- but he is a great athlete with a 60-grade arm and 70 speed. If he can just hit a little bit, he should have a utility role open to him because of his physical versatility. Right-hander Andrew Moore (12) is a fringy-stuff strike-thrower who posts tremendous walk rates but doesn't have a knockout pitch, not even a breaking ball good enough to consistently get left-handed hitters out.
Lefty Ryan Yarbrough (13) throws a ton of strikes and is very tough on lefties from a low three-quarters slot, but right-handers get a good look at his pitches and he might be better suited to relief duty than being a fifth starter. Brayan Hernandez (14) signed for $1.85 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2014, with five-tool potential and a quick-twitch body but limited present skills or body control. He's here because the upside is enormous. Braden Bishop (15) is a plus runner and plays plus defense in center, but has no real history of hitting or getting on base, and needs a swing overhaul to get to the point where his bat will make him an everyday player.
2016 impact
Powell could see some time with the major league club, and Diaz probably could too if the M's choose to make him a reliever now, but the current 25-man roster is all but set, and there are few opportunities for prospects here.
The fallen
After Peterson, outfielders Gareth Morgan and Austin Wilson were the two highest-profile Mariners prospects to go south this past season. Wilson and Tyler Marlette didn't hit a lick in the California League, while Morgan repeated the rookie-level Arizona League and still struck out in more than a third of his at-bats without any real production to mitigate the whiffs.
Sleeper
O'Neill's adjustments in the second half are far from definitive, especially in that league, but they are a very good sign, and he has legitimate 25-homer power if he can show it in games.