Organization ranking: 23
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Royals prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Raul Mondesi, SS (73)
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP (94)
3. Miguel Almonte, RHP
4. Scott Blewett, RHP
5. Ashe Russell, RHP
6. Forest Griffin, LHP
7. Bubba Starling, OF
8. Jorge Bonifacio, OF
9. Nolan Watson, RHP
10. Matt Strahm, LHP
Overview
The Royals' system fueled a pennant and World Series win, so it's no surprise that it has thinned out over the past two years, with promotions and trades taking their tolls. Almonte is a borderline top-100 guy who was on the list once. He possesses a plus fastball and above-average changeup, as well as some inconsistency on the spike curveball the past two years. He is neither wild nor erratic, but 45 control with a breaking ball you really can't command is a less than ideal combination, especially for a 22-year-old starter who was challenged by Triple-A and major league hitters for part of the year. He should spend the year in Triple-A Omaha's rotation, as he has No. 3 starter upside but clear areas for development.
Blewett and Griffin were two of the Royals' top picks in 2014, with Blewett showing more power already, while Griffin is the more polished of the two but lacks the above-average breaking ball you want to see from a left-handed starter. Russell, the team's first-round pick in 2015, was still touching 96-97 mph late in the summer, with heavy sink due to his low three-quarters slot and a slider that's sharp when he's on top of it but can easily flatten. He lacks a true changeup. He and Watson both came out of Indianapolis-area high schools the past spring, with Watson the more traditional pitcher with a higher slot, 92-95 mph and the usual four-pitch mix.
Starling is probably an extra outfielder or below-average regular at this point, but he did make some real progress in 2015 by getting to a consistent swing so he could make better (if not much more) contact. He still has such strong hands that he has raw power to all fields, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him hit 20 homers in a full season in 2016 with a .300 or so OBP. Bonifacio came into his power last year at age 22 in Double-A, but to get to it, he cost himself some contact, and the power surge came as he repeated the level. Both of these guys do have, in theory, the upside of everyday players who hit 25-plus homers with low but acceptable OBPs; it's just a little hard to see how they get there from here. Strahm has been up to 96 mph, but pitches more in the low 90s with a low 70s curveball that, combined with his slot just under three-quarters, wrecks left-handed hitters. He punched out 45 percent of the lefty hitters he faced in 2015, and they hit .143/.211/.171 off him with just three doubles and no homers. He has an average changeup and finishes very square to the plate, to put himself in good position to field a ball back at him. If he's healthy, I see No. 3 starter upside, but his 94 innings in 2015 marked the first time he had passed 30 in a season, due to Tommy John surgery in 2013.
Josh Staumont (11) has No. 1 starter stuff -- 97-100 mph like he's playing catch -- but maybe 35 command. He was a great pick in the second round because the probability is low but the upside is so huge. Even fringe-average command might make him Stephen Strasburg, but he hasn't figured out how to harness his arm just to throw strikes, let alone locate his pitches. Third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert (12) looks like a second-division starter who'll hit .280-.290 with a slew of doubles but not the home runs or defensive value most teams want at third base. His is a pretty right-handed swing, however, that generates a lot of contact, even in years when he has otherwise struggled. Outfielder Marten Gasparini (13) -- Forza Azzurri! -- took a huge step forward last year in moving up to the Pioneer League after a disastrous pro debut in 2014 at age 17 (32 strikeouts with just three walks in 72 plate appearances). Gasparini was born in a town with a population of 3,000 in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region of Italy, close to the border with Slovenia, so the caliber of baseball he grew up playing was non buono. I thought pushing him to the Pioneer League this year was aggressive, but he made more contact, ran the bases better and even drew quite a few walks for a .259/.341/.411 line on the summer. There's latent power here as well, though it might be three or four years before he gets to it, and yes, I'm writing a lot about him because I'm an Italian-American. So what?
Reymond Fuentes (14), the cousin of former Royals great Carlos Beltran, is ready to be someone's fourth outfielder. He's a plus runner who can put the ball in play, but -- stop me if you've read this a few times before -- can't play center field every day and lacks the power for a corner. Puerto Rican outfielder Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado (16) has struggled at the plate for most of his pro career, in part because he entered pro ball so young -- at 17 years, 4 months, he was the youngest player ever drafted in MLB -- and hasn't filled out much yet. He can run, throws fine for center field and has bat speed, but after a midyear promotion to high-A, he got blown up by Carolina League pitchers. He'll be 21 returning to that league this year, and one hopes he'll be strong enough this time around to hang with the better arms in the league. He and former bonus baby Elier Hernandez should start the year in Wilmington's outfield. Both players will be 21 and need to tighten their pitch recognition.
Second baseman D.J. Burt (17) is a dynamic player with plus speed and a good eye at the plate. He posted a .392 OBP in the Pioneer League at age 19. First baseman Ryan O'Hearn (18) has 70 or 80 raw power but is a lot like Pete O'Brien in that he has power without much of a hit tool or plate discipline. He's also not very athletic -- just very, very strong.
Although the Royals tend to draft power arms early, they have a number of command/control starters in the system, including lefty Erik Skoglund (15), who's 88-92 with an average slider; right-hander Glen Sparkman (20), who had Tommy John surgery early in 2015; and right-hander Christian Binford (19), who dominated the low minors at 89-91 with plus command but has struggled to avoid hard contact in Double- and Triple-A.
2016 impact
Zimmer and Almonte should both see innings with the big club this year, more likely in relief than the rotation, given that the Royals already have six starters on their roster. Otherwise, there aren't many opportunities for rookies, and there aren't many rookies in the system ready to contribute, though I will say I think Starling makes his major league debut at some point in 2016.
The fallen
Third baseman Hunter Dozier was supposed to hit his way to the big leagues but posted a .213/.281/.349 line at age 23 in Double-A while playing slightly worse defense at third base, enough that scouts think he'd have to move to the outfield even if the bat recovered.
Sleepers
Blewett and Russell are most likely to soar up the global list, but for a true "sleeper," you can't do much better than Strahm, who doesn't get much attention within the industry (probably because he hasn't pitched much since signing in 2012) but has the weapons to be a big league starter.