Organization ranking: 25
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Blue Jays prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Anthony Alford, CF (52)
2. Conner Greene, RHP (just missed)
3. Jon Harris, RHP
4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., OF
5. Richard Urena, IF
6. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP
7. Clinton Hollon, LHP
8. Justin Maese, RHP
9. Juan Meza, RHP
10. Dan Jansen, C
Overview
This system took a big hit with the series of trades that brought an AL East title and Division Series victory to Toronto, and though the big league club is in good shape for 2016, there isn't much help coming from the farm in the next two years. Harris was the team's first-round pick in 2015, a tall, somewhat projectable college right-hander with two above-average pitches but no real swing-and-miss option. He really struggled with command and control over the summer after signing, though in a sample that small, it probably means nothing.
Guerrero is who you think he is: He has big power, great hand-eye coordination, good pitch recognition (his dad swung at everything, but he also squared up everything), a plus arm (not his dad's cannon, though) and huge upside. He's also 16 years old, and the fact that he's fourth in this system is partly about him and partly about this system's lacking many guys to put ahead of him.
Urena is a left-handed-hitting shortstop with sneaky power and the plate discipline of Mr. Creosote. He drew a walk about once every other week in 2015, though he was young for both leagues he played. Reid-Foley has power stuff but well below-average fastball command, and his delivery has some hiccups in it that might make average command impossible. He has a starter's repertoire, but without the command, he'll end up in relief.
Hollon was the comeback kid for the Jays in 2015, as he returned after missing nearly 24 months with an elbow injury and subsequent Tommy John surgery to show his pre-injury stuff and throwing more strikes. Maese, the team's third-round pick in 2015, is a big sinker/slider guy whose breaking ball has a lot of downward action. I thought he was a fringe first-round talent, thanks to the great delivery and projection on his frame. Meza is a physical kid for 17. He was signed out of Venezuela in 2014 for $1.6 million, with a big, lively fastball and a solid-average changeup, but his command in his pro debut was well short of expectations. Jansen is a catcher with some power and a great idea of the strike zone, but he had his past two seasons cut short by injuries. Broken bones in one of his hands cost him more than two months last year, and he slugged just .222 after his return.
Command right-hander Lupe Chavez (11), signed out of Mexico the previous summer, works with a plus changeup and fringy fastball at 87-90 mph. He shows really good feel for pitching but not quite the stuff to match his stats yet, though at 6-foot-2, 150 pounds, he has room to fill out and add a couple mph. Mitch Nay (12) has made himself playable at third base, but he didn't hit at all in the Florida State League at age 21, and he is probably entering a pivotal year in which he'll fall off the map if he fails to produce again. I'll discuss Max Pentecost (13) below. Rowdy Tellez (14) has big power but could not hit even an average fastball in the Arizona Fall League, as he struggled to adjust to off-speed stuff as well. He has played first base but is better suited to DH. Chad Girodo (15) looks like a very good lefty specialist, coming from a sidearm slot at 87-88 mph and holding left-handed batters to a 7-for-73 line with 29 strikeouts, three walks and just two doubles in 2015. Also keep in mind right-hander Tom Robson, who is out following Tommy John surgery, and Ryan Borucki, a low-slot lefty with a plus changeup who missed most of 2015 because of a shoulder issue.
2016 impact
Girodo would be a capable left-on-left option in the bullpen. Dwight Smith Jr. could surface as an extra outfielder, but he's overtaxed in center and lacks the power for a corner-outfield spot.
The fallen
Pentecost was the team's second first-round pick in 2014, but he missed all of 2015 after a second shoulder surgery and had elbow surgery in 2011. He can run and he can hit, but he had no power and was still a work-in-progress on defense. If the injuries have greatly degraded his arm strength, he'll have to move off the position.
Sleepers
I wouldn't call Guerrero Jr. a "sleeper" because anyone who follows the minors even a little has heard about him, but he is the best bet of anyone in the Jays' system, other than Alford or Greene, to be on next winter's Top 100. After Guerrero Jr., it's probably Clint Hollon, who showed first-round stuff as a high school junior, before medical and makeup concerns knocked him down to the second.