Organization ranking: 10
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Red Sox prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Rafael Devers, 3B (7)
2. Yoan Moncada, 2B (17)
3. Andrew Benintendi, CF (18)
4. Anderson Espinoza, RHP (38)
5. Michael Kopech, RHP
6. Sam Travis, 1B
7. Brian Johnson, LHP
8. Deven Marrero, SS
9. Luis Alexander Basabe, OF
10. Travis Lakins, RHP
Overview
Boston's system remains strong despite their trade for Craig Kimbrel, which sent two top-100 prospects to the San Diego Padres for about 140 innings from Kimbrel.
The first four prospects here are all strong top-50 prospects with star upside, something few other systems can rival. Kopech could crack the Top 100 next year with a full season. His 2015 ended early due to a PED suspension, but before that he was pitching comfortably at 96-97 mph with good life on his fastball, although his breaking ball and changeup remain raw. He's a great athlete and has one of the best baseball bodies in the system.
Travis, Kyle Schwarber's teammate at Indiana, can flat-out hit, with more power for doubles than home runs now. He uses the opposite field well but with a clean enough swing that he can pull something on the inner third. He has a fairly high floor as a good defensive first baseman who hits .280 or so with 10-15 homers and a slew of doubles. Johnson missed the last two months of the season with elbow tightness that flared up shortly after his big league debut, but he's fully healthy again and on track for a regular spring training. He's a better choice for the Red Sox's fifth spot than Joe Kelly, possessing a fringy fastball but three other pitches and good command. Marrero would start for a lot of teams as a plus defender at shortstop with good contact skills, but there's no room in the infield in Boston. Basabe is the good twin -- his brother, Luis Alejandro, is also in the system -- a center fielder who shows all five tools and has some patience at the plate, albeit with a bit of swing-and-miss.
Michael Chavis (11), Boston's first-round pick in 2014, struggled badly in his first full year in pro ball, going to the full-season Sally League at age 19 and frequently having to DH because of the presence of Devers, Moncada and Javier Guerra on the roster. Chavis has pull power, but his plan at the plate is lacking, and he's particularly weak with two strikes. Trey Ball (12), their first-round pick in 2013, remains a highly athletic kid with a projectable frame that just hasn't projected. If anything, his stuff has gone backward a tick from high school, and there's no clear reason why he hasn't gained velocity as he has begun to fill out. First baseman Nick Longhi (13) has great feel fof hitting and plays an above-average first base. He shows raw power in batting practice but not in games, where he uses the whole field more and hasn't shown yet that he can pull the ball. Pat Light (14) moved to the bullpen in 2015 and added a splitter that's probably plus now and could end up a 65 or 70, but he needs to throw his fastball for strikes so he can get to that out pitch.
The Red Sox picked up infielder Marco Hernandez (15) from the Cubs for Felix Doubront, and Hernandez had a minor breakout in 2015, hitting for more average and power than he had in any season before, although he still walks less than once a week and profiles more as a second baseman than a shortstop. He's probably a quality utility infielder at the end of the day. Right-hander Chris Acosta (16) is now the "other guy" the Red Sox signed on July 2, 2014; even though his $1.5 million bonus was close to Anderson Espinoza's, he's nowhere near as advanced physically or mentally as Espinoza. Acosta's fastball will sit 88-92 mph, with some sink, and he has good spin on his curveball. He just turned 18 a few weeks ago and should be ready for the (rookie-level) Gulf Coast League or even (low-A) Lowell this summer. Mauricio Dubon (17) is an above-average to plus defender at shortstop and has good bat control. He lacks strength for power or even the ability to turn on better fastballs, but his ability to put the ball in play and work the count a little should be enough to get his glove to the majors in some capacity.
Williams Jerez (18) was drafted as an outfielder but couldn't hit, so the Red Sox put him on the mound, where he has worked in the low to mid-90s with an average slider and fringy control. However, he currently doesn't have a decent weapon against right-handed hitters. Austin Rei (19) is probably a backup catcher due to the lack of offensive potential. Tate Matheny (20), son of Cardinals manager Mike, looked like a potential fourth outfielder or fringe regular before the 2015 draft, when the Red Sox took him in the fourth round, but was badly overmatched in short-season ball after signing. And finally, right-hander Austin Glorius was signed after the draft as a passed-over player and lived up to his name, hitting 98 mph with a promising breaking ball, while still working on his command.
2016 impact
Johnson could end up being the team's fifth starter now that he's healthy again, while Light and Jerez are possibilities for the bullpen. Deven Marrero is ready to be someone's starting shortstop but is currently blocked in Boston.
The fallen
Ball was the eighth pick in the 2013 draft, a highly athletic, projectable two-way player out of an Indiana high school, but he hasn't projected at all. If anything, he has lost a couple of mph and struggled to miss bats, despite a great work ethic and attempts to improve his repertoire by adding a cutter.
Sleeper
Lakins, the team's sixth-round pick in 2015, didn't pitch this summer due to his spring workload, but threw 93-96 mph in instructional league play with a lightning-quick arm and a plus curveball. He's a very good athlete who signed as a draft-eligible sophomore and came into pro ball without a ton of pitching experience, so his stuff is ahead of his feel and command.