Organization ranking: 15
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Nationals prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Lucas Giolito, RHP (3)
2. Trea Turner, SS (28)
3. Victor Robles, OF (49)
4. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP (Just missed)
5. Wilmer Difo, SS
6. A.J. Cole, RHP
7. Erick Fedde, RHP
8. Jakson Reetz, C
9. Osvaldo Abreu, SS/2B
10. Pedro Severino, C
Overview
The Nationals' system is a bit shallow but has plenty of potential stars, which certainly matters in this system, because you have to be that caliber of prospect to crack the lineup or rotation in D.C. Reynaldo Lopez was on the top 100 last year, but he dropped off this year because it became increasingly clear to me that his most likely destination was in the bullpen, considering his delivery and third pitch (but mostly the delivery). His is a golden arm, and he retains his velocity just fine, but you don't see starters with all-arm deliveries like that. Wilmer Difo got a surprising cup of coffee last year but struggled with plate discipline in Double-A; he still has a bunch of above-average to plus-grade tools, with the quick feet and plus arm for shortstop but not the consistency play to play. He has real doubles power and grades out as at least a 60 runner; 30 steals in 32 attempts is pretty impressive even when it's just in Double-A.
A.J. Cole had a miserable major league debut, thanks to his now-fired manager issuing an intentional walk when Cole was struggling with command. He already has become stronger this offseason and may have a little more power to the breaking stuff, which has been missing recently and contributed to his slightly disappointing strikeout rates. Erick Fedde is a sinker/slider guy with a higher ceiling than Cole but a longer road to get there; he was fully healthy in 2015 after he came back from the Tommy John surgery he had the previous summer. He needs to develop his changeup both to get left-handed hitters out and keep all batters from getting too good a look at his fastball. Jakson Reetz improved defensively but had a miserable, shortened year at the plate, battling injuries through much of the summer on into instructional league. Even if you don't buy the axiom that catchers develop more slowly at the plate, he's pretty young with minimal pro experience and I'm still bullish that he can at least become a backup catcher with some pop, although his ceiling is well above that.
Osvaldo Abreu is kind of like Difo was two years ago, a toolsy shortstop who is just starting to put something together at the plate, especially since he had recovered from a broken hamate bone he suffered in the spring of 2014. He was a bit old for Low-A but showed a similar mix of tools as Difo did there the year before -- some speed, some doubles power, an idea at the plate and the quickness and arm to stay at short. Pedro Severino is at least a big-league backup behind the plate because he can really throw and pitchers love throwing to him, but the bat still lags behind. He started the year 0-for-22, but even discounting that his line in Double-A was just .264/.307/.355, he was overmatched at times by better Double-A pitchers. I get mixed reviews on his receiving and have seen him have trouble keeping the ball in the zone, while others have seen better work with his glove than I have.
Spencer Kieboom (11) will play in the big leagues, maybe for a long time, because of his glove, arm and less-tangible skills like game-calling and working with pitchers; there's some raw power there but probably not much more than a .300 OBP if he plays regularly. Austin Voth (12) could end up anywhere from a fourth starter to a true swingman; his fastball is just 88 to 91 mph, but he can cut it and tweak his arm angle, so hitters just don't get great swings on it. Anderson Franco (13) has a great baseball body with four tools, including plus raw power and an arm that grades as 60 or better; he projects as a plus defender overall at third who hits for average and power, and is just young (he'll play at 18 this year) and lacks physical projection. Outfielder Rafael Bautista (14) lost three months after breaking a finger on a slide in the first week of the minor league season; he's a plus-plus runner who can go get it in center field and has a short, slappy swing that generates contact without power. Center fielder Blake Perkins (15), the team's second pick in 2015, has exciting tools including plus speed that should let him stay in center, but his bat is a very long way off and he may be a two-year rookie ball guy.
They also have a slew of relievers who could move quickly in 2016, three of whom came in the 2015 draft class. Right-hander Koda Glover throws heat that sits in the upper 90s, complemented by an above-average slider, and he walked just one of 96 batters he faced in Low-A Hagerstown after signing. Lefty Taylor Hearn is enormous, standing 6-foot-5 with size 17 shoes, and he hit 100 mph in instructional league action, making him almost certainly a pen guy in the long run; but with that kind of arm strength his ceiling as a reliever is high. Right-hander Andrew Lee was a two-way guy at Tennessee whose heat sits at 92 to 95 mph in short stints with a spike curveball and good control; he only pitched in relief for the Vols, but the Nats may try him in the rotation due to his size. They also have a rookie ball reliever who has been clocked throwing fastballs up to 100 mph while largely sitting at 95 to 96; he has a future 60 slider but below-average command, and his actual given I-didn't-make-this-up name is Joan Baez.
2016 impact
Trea Turner should be their Opening Day shortstop. Cole would be my pick for the first starter recalled when there's a need for one, although the Nats' five starters are all pretty solid. By midyear, Lopez might be good enough to be the Nats' seventh- or eighth-inning guy.
The fallen
The Nationals gave Matt Purke a wildly over-slot deal in the third round in 2011, even though he was clearly hurt at the time, with his velocity dropping to 86 to 87 mph in a conference tournament start two weeks before that draft. He later blew out his elbow, gave the Nats a 7.28 ERA in 55 Double-A innings and was released in December, after which he signed with the White Sox.
Sleeper
Franco is still so young, but he is strong for his age and could jump to Hagerstown and have a year that accelerates his timetable, since the Nats aren't waiting on him to develop physically.