Organization ranking: 26
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects of 2016. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Tigers prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2016, prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year and a sleeper prospect (or two) I think can jump into the main Top 100 list for 2017.
A few quick notes: 1) Just as in my other prospect files, I use the 20 to 80 grading scale when scouting these prospects; and 2) If the prospect is in the Top 100, clicking on his ranking will take you to the page his scouting profile is on.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Baltimore Orioles top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects (Top 100 rank in parentheses)
1. Michael Fulmer, RHP (48)
2. Derek Hill, CF
3. Stephen Moya, OF
4. Beau Burrows, RHP
5. Dixon Machado, SS
6. Christin Stewart, OF
7. Kevin Ziomek, LHP
8. Spencer Turnbull, RHP
9. Jairo Labourt, LHP
10. Joe Jimenez, RHP
Overview
The Tigers' system is starting to improve after years of strip-mining to buttress the major league roster, a strategy that helped the team win two American League pennants but has left Detroit in a precarious position for 2016 and beyond. Fulmer, acquired for Yoenis Cespedes, is the Tigers' lone top-100 prospect, but Hill was on the list last year and could return there with a full, healthy 2016. He played only 53 games last year around a nagging quad injury, and since he entered pro ball as a plus defender who was raw at the plate, the lost 300 or so plate appearances particularly hurts.
Moya is what he has always been -- tools, scary power and poor pitch recognition; if he hits at all, he'll knock 25 homers, but he still hasn't been able to handle Triple-A pitching. Burrows was the team's first-round pick in 2015: a big, strong, power arm from Texas who should work in the mid-90s, even going every fifth day, but needs to refine his offspeed stuff. Machado is blocked in Detroit but could help a lot of major league clubs right now with his glove; he has an idea at the plate but still lacks the strength to do much with all the contact he makes. Stewart, the Tigers' second pick in 2015 (in the supplemental round), is a power-hitting corner guy with a little too much swing-and-miss right now, but has some middle-of-the-lineup upside if he can keep his contact rate up.
Ziomek is the team's best hope for a near-term starter out of the system, racking up strikeouts and drastically cutting his walks over 2014, although his delivery is still more reliever than starter. If Double-A hitters still struggle with the deception in his delivery -- he doesn't have power stuff -- that will boost his odds of remaining in the rotation. Turnbull isn't far behind Ziomek in development, with more power but worse command and control. Turnbull was too advanced for his level last year. Labourt and Jimenez are the leaders of the Tigers' deep stable of hard-throwing, minor league relievers, along with Endrys Briceno (12), who returned in mid-2015 from Tommy John surgery; Jeff Ferrell (16); and Edgar de la Rosa (17), who was non-tendered and re-signed in December after an injury-plagued season.
Michael Gerber (11) was way too old for the Midwest League, but had a strong showing in the AFL that should allow him to move quickly up the ladder in 2016; he has pretty good feel to hit and can do a little bit of everything -- with a little pop, some speed and solid defense in right field. Catcher Arvicent Perez (13) is a great catch-and-throw guy and a complete unknown at the plate, with only 283 plate appearances in the U.S. through his age 21 season. Montreal Robertson (14) could surface as a reliever if either his slider or changeup develops into even an average pitch; he's 93-97, and when he extends fully over his front side, it looks as if he's releasing the ball about four feet from the plate. Third-rounder Drew Smith (15) might belong in that earlier group of relief prospects; he's in the mid-90s as a starter but with 40 movement and without a plus second pitch.
2016 impact
Fulmer should be the first starter recalled when the Tigers' rotation has an opening. Jimenez will probably appear in their bullpen at some point in 2016. Machado is available if Jose Iglesias or Ian Kinsler get hurt.
The fallen
Shortstop JaCoby Jones, acquired from Pittsburgh in the Joakim Soria trade, has star-level tools but will miss 50 games in 2016 for a second failed test for a "drug of abuse."
Sleepers
Stewart is the best bet to end up in the top 100 next year outside of Fulmer or Hill, but I like Gerber's mix of solid-average to above-average tools, even though there isn't one thing there that's clearly plus. The Tigers need to push Gerber, who'll play at 23 this year, to Double-A to challenge his bat.