Harvard beat Yale, 70-58, on Friday night, clinching the first berth in this year's NCAA tournament and setting off riotous celebrations from Quincy House to the Quad. But you didn't find us leaving GK Central to party at Bartley's, Grendel's or any such sizzling Cambridge night spot. Instead, with more dance cards on the line in upcoming conference tournaments, we hunkered down to study the latest developments among all the deep underdogs.
Here's a full roundup of nonmajor conferences, in order of the slayage potential of their best Giant-Killing candidates. You'll notice new possibilities for Cinderellas in addition to Harvard, such as Eastern Kentucky and Denver, plus updates and links to any teams we have already covered. We will get to power conferences that could generate multiple low seeds (plus the Atlantic 10) as their tournaments evolve.
But for now, your mission is simple: If you like upsets, root for these teams as automatic bids.
Conference USA
Best Killer: Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Giant Killer rating: 40.7, on a scale from 0 to 100)
Key stats: Turnovers on 24 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 7th in the NCAA; offensive rebounds on 38.6 percent of missed shots, ranking 9th
Our take: The persistently aggressive and always fun Golden Eagles are boom-or-bust and the Best Killers who could play in the Round of 64, but they’ll probably need to win the C-USA tournament to earn an NCAA invite.
Southland
Best Killer: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (27.4)
Key stats: Turnovers on 24.8 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 3rd in the nation; 38.3 percent offensive rebounding percentage, ranking 13th
Our take: Yes, the Lumberjacks' strength of schedule ranks 304th in the country, but they're a legitimately strong squad with outstanding Killer traits. They may be our model's biggest discovery this year.
West Coast Conference
Best Killer: Saint Mary's Gaels (25.5)
Key stat: Scores 111.2 points per 100 possessions, 54th-best in the country despite mediocre inside shooting
Our take: The Gaels took themselves off every bracketologist's radar with a hideous 75-47 loss to Gonzaga in their regular-season finale. But nailing 3-pointers, hitting the offensive glass and playing at a crawl would make them a dangerous Killer if they somehow pull off a run through the WCC tourney. They start Saturday night against Pepperdine.
Ivy League
Best Killer: Harvard Crimson (22.7)
Key stat: Shooting 39.2 percent on 3-point attempts, ranking 19th in the NCAA
Our take: With co-captains Kyle Casey and Brandyn Curry reinstated after an academic cheating scandal, this is the deepest and best of Tommy Amaker's Crimson teams. They protect the ball and hit the glass far better than last year, and their tightened defense gives up just 94.5 points per 100 possessions (ranking: 22nd). As for where the rest of the Ivy League stands these days, keep in mind this exchange from "The Simpsons":
Sideshow Bob: What about the buffoon lessons, the four years at clown college?
Cecil Terwilliger: I'll thank you not to refer to Princeton that way.
Mountain West Conference
Best Killer: Boise State Broncos (21.4)
Key stats: Scores 114.6 points per 100 possessions, ranking 21st in the NCAA; Ryan Watkins leads the nation in offensive rebounding percentage with an eye-popping 20.3 percent
Our take: Their defense fell off severely this season, allowing San Diego State and New Mexico to turn the MWC into a two-horse race. But we’ve had our eye on the Broncos as a potential Killer forever. If they could manage to win their tournament, they'd still be the conference's best chance to slay a Giant.
Ohio Valley Conference
Best Killer: Eastern Kentucky Colonels (18.4)
Key stats: Force turnovers on 24.4 percent of opponent possessions, 4th-best in the country
Our take: If our model had idiosyncrasies, its favorite off-the-wall Killer pick would be Eastern Kentucky, a team of comical statistical extremes. The Colonels are among the nation's top five teams in forcing turnovers, but allow opponents to shoot 56 percent from inside, the sixth-worst rate in the NCAA. They shoot 56.3 percent on their own 2-point attempts, but grab just 23.1 percent of their missed shots, also sixth-worst in the country.
The key, as you might guess, is that the Colonels are extremely undersized (Effective Height: -3.0 inches, ranking 325th) and focus on hassling opponents in transition and taking truckloads of outside shots. And this particular crazy quilt of characteristics -- the variability that comes with taking nearly 44 percent of shots from behind the arc, the efficiency that comes with an 56.8 percent effective field-goal percentage -- happens to be highly effective for slaying Giants.
Eastern Kentucky is 3.3 points better than an average team in our basic power rankings. But matched against a Giant, the Colonels would tack on another 11.8 points -- a whopping dose of “secret sauce” based on their statistical similarity to past Killers. They've made it to the OVC final, where they will face Belmont (GK Rating: 13.4), another precision-passing, bombs-away squad. If your idea of a good time is watching two Killers slinging long-distance shot after shot at each other -- and, really, whose isn't? -- their faceoff (Saturday at 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2) should be one of the most entertaining games of the year.
Summit League
Best Killer: Denver Pioneers (16.2)
Key stats: Shooting 38.8 percent on 3-point attempts (ranking 28th in the NCAA); turnovers on 21.2 percent of opponent possessions (ranking 29th)
Our take: Before this season began, we wondered if the Pioneers would again suffer from the "double-edged slingshot" effect that afflicted them last year -- if they'd be a good Killer but vulnerable to upsets from within their own conference. It turns out they weren't good enough to dominate their new surroundings, as their interior defense has collapsed while their rebounding remains weak. (Their statistical profile is actually a lot like Eastern Kentucky.)
But Denver still has its Killer secret sauce, worth more than eight points per 100 possessions. If it can win its conference championship -- another big "if" on this list -- that's enough to make them stronger in the NCAA tournament than North Dakota State or any other Summit team.
Sun Belt Conference
Best Killer: Georgia State Panthers (15.6)
Key stat: Forcing opponents to give up the ball on 20.9 percent of opponent possessions while losing the ball on just 12.4 percent of their own, the Panthers gain 6.9 points per 100 possessions from turnovers, fourth-most in the NCAA
Our take: Georgia State's ball handling and 3-point shooting give them a puncher's chance against anybody.
MAAC
Best Killer: Iona Gaels (13.9)
Key stat: Effective field-goal percentage of 57.1 percent, third-best in the nation
Our take: The Gaels protect the ball, pass the ball and shoot the ball. They don't do anything else well, but they do those things very well. And since we published our Mag piece, they have re-established themselves as their conference's Best Killer. They are, you might say, the leader of the pack.
America East
Best Killer: Vermont Catamounts (8.7)
Key stat: Allows opponents rebounds on 27.4 percent of missed shots, 18th best in the NCAA
Our take: At first glance, what's not to love? The Catamounts shoot an excellent 38.9 percent on 3-pointers and defend well inside and outside, giving up 98.4 points per 100 possessions (ranking 61st). And they've played some tough opponents; they lost at Duke by one point in November. But Vermont doesn't actually attempt many bombs (only 28.3 percent of field-goal attempts, ranking 281st).
They're good, not great, at the things that really matter to Killers, like generating offensive rebounds and turnovers. And the areas where they're really strong -- defensive rebounding and limiting opponent shooting -- just haven't been typical keystones for successful Killers in the past. Vermont isn't quite the case of conservative play that Bucknell was last year. But they're built more to win a small conference and get into the Big Dance than to slay Giants.
MEAC
Best Killer: North Carolina Central Eagles (7.5)
Key stat: Steals on 12.2 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 10th in the NCAA.
Our take: The Eagles are nearly 10 points stronger than the typical 16-seed, and about five points better than the average 15-seed.
Atlantic Sun
Best Killer: Mercer Bears (7.2)
Key stat: Shooting 39.5 percent on 3-point attempts, ranking 13th in the NCAA
Our take: The Bears can score from any distance and don't rely on free throws, which gives them at least a chance to keep things interesting against a Giant. This is more than we can say for Florida-Gulf Coast, whom Mercer will face in an Atlantic Sun championship rematch on Sunday afternoon. The 2013 Eagles (GK Rating: 1.2) aren't anything like the group that won the office pool for your cousin's mother-in-law last year. They throw the ball away, don't hit the offensive glass and shoot just 32.5 percent from behind the arc -- pretty much a collection of anti-Giant-Killing traits.
To cover all our bases, there are 11 more conferences where no Killer is clearly best, or where no team has a Killer Rating of at least 5: the Big South, Big Sky, Big West, CAA, Horizon League, MAC, Northeast, Patriot League, Southern, SWAC and WAC. We know there are Delaware fans out there, but we will wait to explore these conferences until we have a better handle on who their auto-bids will be.