As we embark on our ninth annual search for big NCAA tournament upsets, an unfortunate reality is staring out from our spreadsheets: There just aren't many promising Giant Killers in the mid-majors this season, and even fewer are leading their conferences (and in turn projecting as automatic bid winners). Usually the numbers embolden us to believe deeply in at least one or two unheralded but clearly talented squads, like Cornell and Murray State in 2010, or VCU and Richmond in 2011. But this time around, upsets are more likely to come as a result of Giants who fail to overcome their vulnerabilities or extreme long shots who get good matchups.
Don't worry, in the coming weeks, we'll still get to mid-majors that could yet send Killers to the Big Dance, like the crazy Conference USA. But first we are going to show you the need to look for Cinderellas high (in power conferences) and low (in the smallest of leagues).
Here are five who are readying their slingshots.
The Wounded Assassins
Giant Killer Rating: 45.3 (on a scale from zero to 100; see here for a full explanation)
By stringing together seven straight losses just as the nation started turning its attention to bracketology, Oklahoma State has severely damaged its national standing, dropping entirely out of the AP poll and USA Today coaches' poll and plunging dangerously close to the NCAA bubble. Here at GK Central, we see that as an opportunity to buy low. Three of the Cowboys' 10 defeats came while Marcus Smart was suspended. Four others were by five points or fewer to top-40 teams, including one in triple-overtime against Iowa State and another by two points at Kansas. And unlike poll voters, our statistical model doesn't see those close losses against good opposition as indicating any deterioration in Oklahoma State's fundamentals. Our basic power rankings rate the Cowboys as 29.6 points above average -- a good 10 points better than other squads that could earn seeds in the 10 to 12 range, like Colorado or Missouri or Xavier.
Further, Oklahoma State can hit from downtown (36.3 percent on 3-point attempts, with sophomore guard Phil Forte leading the way at 45.3 percent). It protects the ball (turnovers on just 15 percent of possessions, ranking 17th in the NCAA) and generates turnovers (19.4 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 109th). In other words, the Cowboys could make life very difficult for a Giant. Seriously, if you're a 6-seed, would you rather face Oklahoma State or, say, St. Joseph's?
Giant Killer Rating: 43.2
A bevy of other potentially low seeds are easy to overlook because they're likely to earn the fourth or fifth bids from power conferences, but one stands out for its Killer qualities: Minnesota. Last year, our model looked past the Gophers' choppy record, appreciated their best-in-the-country offensive rebounding and called their upset of UCLA. Even our accolades weren't enough to save Tubby Smith's job, but under Richard Pitino, Minnesota remains ready to slay.
The Gophers rank 22nd in the nation in steal percentage, a key to Giant-killing. And they shoot 3-pointers effectively (35.9 percent) and still hit the boards (offensive rebounds on 33.6 percent of missed shots, ranking 107th in the NCAA), helping them generate 114.7 points per 100 possessions (ranking 24th).
The Sleepers
Giant Killer Rating: 25.4
So you're looking for a name to drop into your bracketology conversations, a small-conference star that's about to break out into upset-pick trendiness? Ladies and gentlemen, try the glass slipper on Stephen F. Austin. Retooled by first-year coach (and former Frank Martin disciple) Brad Underwood, the Lumberjacks have piled up 21 straight wins. And while most have come against Southland opponents like Central Arkansas and Abilene Christian, rating systems that adjust for strength of schedule still like SFA.
KenPom.com rates the Lumberjacks as the 65th-best team in the country; BPI puts them at No. 82. And our model adds bonus points for their Killer traits: Stephen F. Austin generates turnovers on almost one of every four opponent possessions (24.8 percent, ranking third in the NCAA) and, despite a severe lack of size up front (effective height: minus-3.8 inches, ranking 343rd), snags 37.5 percent of missed shots (ranking 25th). SFA also shoots well inside, thanks to its relentless passing, and protects the ball. And as the Lumberjacks start to get national attention, their projected seed is inching up to a 14 or 13, softening their likely tournament opposition.
Giant Killer Rating: 20.3
Ron Hunter, in his third season at Georgia State, has no use for advanced stats. But he can find guards, like Devonta White and Kentucky transfer Ryan Harrow, and small forwards, like his own son R.J. Hunter. And Hunter can teach them to take care of the ball and let them shoot.
The Panthers force turnovers on 21.6 percent of opponent possessions (ranking 28th in the NCAA) while losing the ball on just 12.4 percent of their own, the lowest rate in the country. They hit on nearly 40 percent of their 3s. And they don't get to the line often but are lights-out on free throws (77.4 percent, ranking fourth). They don't hit the boards much and their defense is shaky at any distance from the hoop, but the efficiency of their offense gives Georgia State a puncher's chance against anyone.
The Deep Sleeper
Giant Killer Rating: 12.9
Finally, what's that sound you hear coming from the furthest nether regions of your brackets? Maybe it's Jay Copeland, who ranks fourth in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, slamming into the glass, or perhaps it's Emanuel Chapman, who is 33rd in steal percentage, skidding as he grabs another turnover. These are the stars at North Carolina Central, and they're ready to at least scare a Giant.
Playing in the MEAC, the Eagles faced an absurdly weak schedule (ranking 342nd). But they did schedule three top-60 nonconference opponents. And even after adjusting for the quality of the teams they faced, our model rates North Carolina Central as eight points above average, compared with an average rating of minus-2.3 points for all the 16-seeds in our database (which goes back to 2006-07), and of plus-2.3 for the 15-seeds. Moreover, the Eagles, mirroring the talents of their best players, are built as Killers: They seize turnovers (23.8 percent of opponent possessions, ranking sixth in the NCAA) and grab offensive rebounds (35.5 percent of missed shots, ranking 52nd). They beat North Carolina State by 10 on the road in November, and if they land a vulnerable Goliath in March, watch out.