Earlier, we filled your inquiring minds with everything you could have wanted to know about each first-round matchup with GK implications. But there’s no slacking here in GK Central, so now we’re moving on to the round of 32. Below, you’ll find upset odds for each potential second-round matchup (except for those involving a 16-seed, because if you’re searching for upset odds for a 16-seed in the second round, you need more help than we can provide). Before we get to the numbers, allow us to share a couple of thoughts.
-- You will notice a couple of cases when a team with a lower Giant Killer rating has a better chance of an upset than its higher-rated counterpart. (For instance, check out Tulsa and Michigan against West Virginia.) That’s the result of cluster analysis, which you can read about here. Our model divides Giants into one of four families and does the same for Killers, then adjusts its upset odds based on historical meetings between those families. (It’s a clash of clans, you might say.)
-- Since we didn’t tackle any of the 7- through 10-seeds in yesterday’s regional previews (since they don’t play first-round GK games), we’ll pause in a couple of places to offer brief analysis on ripe second-round upsets that involve those squads. And on that note, let’s get to the math:
East
(1) North Carolina (Giant rating: 96.9, on a scale of 0 to 100 percent chance of beating an average Giant Killer) vs. (8) USC Trojans (Giant Killer rating: 15.1, on a scale of 0 to 100 percent chance of beating an average Giant)
Upset chance: 4.8 percent
(1) North Carolina (96.9) vs. (9) Providence (17.0)
Upset Chance: 14.5 percent
(2) Xavier (86.0) vs. (7) Wisconsin (30.1)
Upset chance: 24.7 percent
(2) Xavier (86.0) vs. (10) Pittsburgh (39.6)
Upset chance: 32.3 percent
As you can see with the two games above, Xavier should be on high alert in Round 2. Wisconsin is a member of the Slow Killer family and poses a threat to Xavier by controlling the tempo, hitting the glass hard at both ends and taking care of the ball. Pittsburgh is a High-Possession Killer and attacks with the country’s 14th-best offensive rebound rate (37.4 percent). Xavier has no glaring weaknesses and owns an edge in all the key possession categories (turnovers, rebounding, 3-pointers). Still, our model sees the Musketeers as vulnerable in this spot.
(3) West Virginia (97.8) vs. (11) Michigan (34.8)
Upset chance: 15.6 percent
(3) West Virginia (97.8) vs. (11) Tulsa (14.2)
Upset chance: 18.7 percent
(4) Kentucky (95.9) vs. (12) Chattanooga (17.2)
Upset chance: 5.1 percent
(5) Indiana (93.3) vs. (13) Stony Brook (6.6)
Upset chance: 9.4 percent
(6) Notre Dame (76.4) vs. (14) Stephen F. Austin (36.3)
Upset chance: 68.7 percent
If Stephen F. Austin can get past a top Giant in West Virginia, imagine what it can do against a vulnerable Notre Dame squad. In other words, if you have them beating the Mountaineers, you might as well go out on a limb with the Lumberjacks for another round.
(7) Wisconsin (74.3) vs. (15) Weber State (1.7)
Upset chance: 10.4 percent
(10) Pittsburgh (85.5) vs. (15) Weber State (1.7)
Upset chance: 6.1 percent
South
(1) Kansas (95.1) vs. (8) Colorado (11.4)
Upset chance: 14.3 percent
(1) Kansas (95.1) vs. (9) Connecticut (20.9)
Upset chance: 18.3 percent
(2) Villanova (89.7) vs. (7) Iowa (42.4)
Upset chance: 39.6 percent
Iowa has taken some hits since starting the season 19-4, but our model loves the Hawkeyes’ chances of shocking Villanova. Slow Killers like Iowa have historically performed well against Generic Giants (Villanova’s clan), winning 28.6 percent of matchups. Iowa hits 38.2 percent of its 3-pointers and owns a significant turnover advantage. So Nova fans should root for a Big 5 encounter with Temple instead of this doozy.
(2) Villanova (89.7) vs. (10) Temple (6.8)
Upset chance: 10.3 percent
(3) Miami (86.7) vs. (11) Vanderbilt (13.7)
Upset chance: 45 percent
(3) Miami (86.7) vs. (11) Wichita State (42.5)
Upset chance: 39.8 percent
Another high seed in trouble: If Vanderbilt or Wichita State gets past Arizona, either would pose a serious threat to the Hurricanes. Our analysis of both teams applies here, even though Miami is a solid Giant that doesn’t turn the ball over, limits 3-pointers and features the nation’s 12th-best offense (an adjusted 117.2 points per 100 possessions).
(4) California (71.7) vs. (12) South Dakota State (4.8)
Upset chance: 20.1 percent
(5) Maryland (77.4) vs. (13) Hawaii (15.2)
Upset chance: 16 percent
(6) Arizona (85.6) vs. (14) Buffalo (5.4)
Upset chance: 6.6 percent
(7) Iowa (88.6) vs. (15) UNC Asheville (6.9)
Upset chance: 5.7 percent
(10) Temple (42.0) vs. (15) UNC Asheville (6.9)
Upset chance: 55.2 percent
Midwest
(1) Virginia (93.1) vs. (8) Texas Tech (20.9)
Upset chance: 16.3 percent
(1) Virginia (93.1) vs. (9) Butler (31.9)
Upset chance: 21.3 percent
(2) Michigan State (94.1) vs. (7) Dayton (14.3)
Upset chance: 7.4 percent
(2) Michigan State (94.1) vs. (10) Syracuse (57.1)
Upset chance: 18.8 percent
(3) Utah (72.8) vs. (11) Gonzaga (18.5)
Upset chance: 29.7 percent
(4) Iowa State (79.2) vs. (12) Arkansas-Little Rock (13.4)
Upset chance: 23.2 percent
(5) Purdue (86.6) vs. (13) Iona (10.7)
Upset chance: 7.6 percent
(6) Seton Hall (83.4) vs. (14) Fresno State (8.4)
Upset chance: 8.6 percent
(7) Dayton (46.9) vs. (15) Middle Tennessee (5.1)
Upset chance: 25.9 percent
(10) Syracuse (86.4) vs. (15) Middle Tennessee (5.1)
Upset chance: 8.8 percent
West
(1) Oregon (91.3) vs. (8) Saint Joseph’s (11.5)
Upset chance: 16 percent
(1) Oregon (91.3) vs. (9) Cincinnati (47.8)
Upset chance: 49.6 percent
Uh-oh. We’ve been talking about Cincinnati as a dangerous “Wounded Lion” since early February, and if the Bearcats get by Saint Joe’s, look out. They are a menace on the offensive boards, force turnovers on 20.6 percent of opponents’ possessions and sport the nation’s eighth-ranked defense. As usual, shooting is a problem for the Bearcats, but they can muck a game up and grind out a victory against a team such as Oregon, which is exceptionally vulnerable on the defensive glass (31.3 offensive rebound percentage allowed).
(2) Oklahoma (88.7) vs. (7) Oregon State (21.8)
Upset chance: 17.7 percent
(2) Oklahoma (88.7) vs. (10) VCU (47.5)
Upset chance: 22.2 percent
What would March be without a VCU upset? This isn’t quite as risk-seeking a Rams squad as we’ve seen in the past, but, as Will Wade explained to us, the Rams are ready to dial up their 3-point shooting against a better foe. This won’t be easy for Oklahoma.
(3) Texas A&M (92.1) vs. (11) Northern Iowa (13.0)
Upset chance: 15.3 percent
(4) Duke (93.9) vs. (12) Yale (10.4)
Upset chance: 7.5 percent
(5) Baylor (92.7) vs. (13) UNC-Wilmington (9.0)
Upset chance: 18.7 percent
(6) Texas (82.3) vs. (14) Green Bay (6.6)
Upset chance: 13.8 percent
(7) Oregon State (65.8) vs. (15) CSU Bakersfield (5.6)
Upset chance: 28.5 percent
(10) VCU (78.2) vs. (15) CSU Bakersfield (5.6)
Upset chance: 17.3 percent