Monmouth vs. Syracuse? St. Bonaventure vs. Tulsa? That was so two hours ago. Here at GK Central, we're elbow deep in spreadsheets. We'll have full regional breakdowns of every first-round matchup tomorrow, and a look at the second round on Tuesday. But as usual, we wanted to get you our top-10 potential first-round upsets as quickly as possible.

If you like upsets, the committee wasn't particularly helpful. Top Giant Killers such as Cincinnati and VCU ended up in games without GK implications (meaning no five-seed difference). Michigan has to win a play-in game before it can load its slingshot. Same with Wichita State. And potentially dangerous Killers like Chattanooga and Stony Brook drew tough matchups with Indiana and Kentucky, respectively. Still, in this year of parity -- or mediocrity, depending on your mood -- upsets are certainly the cards. Here then are the likeliest slayings in Round 1.

1. Notre Dame (6) vs. Michigan (11) 56.5 percent

Yup, you’re reading that correctly: If the Wolverines advance past Tulsa, our model actually favors them to beat Notre Dame. The Irish can’t guard anyone (172nd in adjusted defensive efficiency), while Michigan can light it up from 3-point range (44.5 percent of their field goal attempts).

2. Arizona (6) vs. Vanderbilt (11) 47.7 percent

Vandy doesn’t play like a Killer; it was just severely underseeded. Our model’s power rankings section says the Commodores are the 19th-best team in the country, only four spots behind Arizona. That’s why this one’s a toss-up.

3. West Virginia (3) vs. Stephen F. Austin (14) 44.4 percent

Typically, in games similar to this matchup, it’s the underdog’s traits that matter most, and as a Killer, the Lumberjacks are loaded. Our model loves West Virginia, but this is the most dangerous opponent the Mountaineers could have drawn.

4. Arizona (6) vs. Wichita State (11) 42.4 percent

Nearly as underseeded as Vanderbilt, the Shockers are, as usual, a Slow Killer that piles up rebounds at both ends. This season, they are also forcing turnovers on 23.2 percent of opponent possessions, the fifth-best rate in the NCAA, making this an especially tough matchup for the Wildcats.

5. California (4) vs. Hawaii (13) 36.4 percent

Conventional wisdom says California is peaking at the right time, but our model picks up the fact that the Bears have a problem with turnovers -- Cal surrenders them on 17.5 percent of possessions, but forces them on just 14.1 percent -- and recognizes that Hawaii is keyed by Roderick Bobbitt and Quincy Smith, a pair of highly disruptive guards. With the possession arrow tilted toward the Rainbow Warriors, this is much scarier than a typical 4-13 contest.

6. Seton Hall vs. Gonzaga (11) 32.6 percent

Gonzaga doesn’t play, or look, much like a Killer. Historically, big, slow teams like the Bulldogs are precisely the kind of opponent that causes trouble for Power Giants like Seton Hall, whose key strength is offensive rebounding.

7. Notre Dame (6) vs. Tulsa (11) 29.7 percent

It’s a much better matchup for Notre Dame than a possible date with Michigan, but the Golden Hurricane have a decent shot because they can force turnovers and exploit Notre Dame’s weak D.

8. Texas (6) vs. Northern Iowa (11) 25.8 percent

Hello from the other side, Shaka. He’ll discover life as a Giant isn’t so easy against the sure-handed Panthers. However, the way to beat Texas is on the offensive boards, and UNI ranks dead last in the nation in that category.

9. Iowa State (4) vs. Iona (13) 25.5 percent

Sorry, Monmouth, but Iona was always the MAAC’s best potential Killer. The Gaels will bomb away from deep and the Cyclones don’t exactly clamp down beyond the arc.

10. Baylor (5) vs. Yale (12) 20.2 percent

With a 92.7 Giant Rating, Baylor would be safe in most games, but drew a terrible matchup. Slow Killers like Yale beat Power Giants like Baylor in 23.5 percent of similar games, and our model places much more weight on Yale’s Killer traits in this type of matchup.