In a season defined by chaos, it should come as no surprise that we found ourselves surprised -- again -- on Friday afternoon. Upsets? We saw them coming, sure. In fact, if our model had legs, it would take a victory lap after six of its eight most likely upsets came through.

But the seventh Giant Killing? That was Michigan State. Entering the tourney, Sparty felt like a soft binky in a sea of screaming preschoolers, maybe the only top team to inspire true confidence in a down year. So, of course Middle Tennessee led wire-to-wire. In the wake of that upset and Friday’s additional carnage, all eight games on Sunday are true GK matchups. That’s extraordinary.

No. 10 Syracuse Orange (87.3 Giant Rating) vs. No. 15 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (4.5 Giant Killer Rating)

Upset Chance: 7.5 percent

Behold, the elusive 10 vs. 15 matchup. How crazy was Middle Tennessee’s win over Michigan State? The Blue Raiders had scored 90 or more points just once all season -- so of course they did it against Michigan State. They have a 28.3 percent offensive rebound rate on the season, yet they grabbed 31.2 percent of their misses against a Tom Izzo team. They shot 57.9 percent from 3-point range against the Spartans, turned it over only 10 times and committed just 13 fouls. That’s a stunning performance.

It also screams “unsustainable.” Syracuse, despite getting “Giant” billing only through truly unusual circumstances nonetheless projects as a steady one because of its ability to force turnovers, grab offensive rebounds and hold teams to a 47.2 effective field goal percentage. But the Blue Raiders have two clear avenues to a win. Syracuse’s zone gives up plenty of 3-pointers, although they are not easy treys -- foes hit just 30.4 percent of them. Can Middle Tennessee continue its hot shooting from Friday, or at least match its season mark of 39.4 percent? And can Reggie Upshaw and company eat up the offensive boards that the Cuse’s zone allows? If those stats turn in their favor again, it wouldn’t be crazy to see the Blue Raiders in the Sweet 16.

No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners (91.1) vs. No. 10 VCU Rams (52.4)

Upset Chance: 20.3 percent

VCU returns to the role it was born to play, looking to add Oklahoma to its list of slain Giants. But the Sooners find safety in their statistical profile, buoyed by the strong 3-point shooting they used to dispatch CSU Bakersfield. Despite their veteran backcourt, though, the Sooners are shaky with the ball. They turn it over on 17.9 percent of possessions, and that’s good news for VCU and its pressure D. Expect the Rams to dial up their 3-point shooting frequency, as Will Wade predicted they would against a top-notch foe. If VCU can knock down a few bombs, look out.

No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (80.8) vs. No. 14 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (35.6)

Upset Chance: 63.1 percent

Oh, Stephen F. Austin, how does our model love thee? Let it count the ways. Or we can just show the film or your win against West Virginia, in which you showed all the reasons why you were one of our Best Bets.

Well, if our model was in love with SFA before that game, now the Lumberjacks have graduated to soul mate status. If you didn’t understand how the Lumberjacks could lead the NCAA in defensive turnover percentage, you got all the evidence you needed against West Virginia (22 turnovers forced). Their other weapons were on display, too: They grabbed 11 offensive rebounds, held West Virginia to 30.8 percent shooting and got 33 points from Thomas Walkup. And they won by 14 despite shooting 30.9 percent. Well, Notre Dame’s 168th-ranked D isn’t remotely as good as West Virginia’s fifth-ranked unit. The Irish won’t force turnovers of their own, which was the one way the Mountaineers hung with SFA for most of the game. So yes, our model gave Michigan a slight edge to beat Notre Dame. It was wrong. But it sure doesn’t think it will be wrong again.

No. 5 Maryland Terrapins (83.1) vs. No. 13 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (13.1)

Upset Chance: 11.8 percent

Our model loved the Rainbow Warriors against California, and they delivered. That’s despite the fact that Cal’s D won the battle of the arc, which looked like the key to the game. The Bears held Hawaii to just 14 3-point attempts, and the Rainbow Warriors made only three. But Hawaii’s pressure D flustered the decimated Cal backcourt, forcing 16 turnovers, and that looms as a major issue on Sunday. Maryland has struggled with turnovers all season (19.1 percent of possessions). Maryland’s perimeter D is also more generous than Cal’s was, letting opponents take 36 percent of their shots from deep. So Hawaii has a clear wave to ride to another victory.

No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (92.5) vs. No. 7 Iowa Hawkeyes (45.3)

Upset Chance: 37.5 percent

Beware of Iowa, the sneaky Giant Killer. The Hawkeyes have sputtered late in the season and barely got by Temple in the first round, but they take care of the ball (14.6 percent turnover rate) and get on the offensive glass, which helps to raise their Killer profile. Nova, of course, is exceptionally balanced, with the nation’s 10th-ranked offense and seventh-ranked D. But the Cats are vulnerable on the glass and give up a lot of 3-pointers (37.3 percent of shots), which spells trouble against an Iowa team that hits 37.7 percent of its long balls.

No. 2 Xavier Musketeers (90.5) vs. No. 7 Wisconsin Badgers (36.1)

Upset Chance: 21.5 percent

No, this isn’t the Big East/Big Ten Challenge. But we’ve got another middling Big Ten team with surprising GK mettle taking on a 2-seed from the Big East. Xavier, like Villanova, wins with balance, and owns a significant advantage in turnovers and rebounding. But Wisconsin’s slow pace can help keep the game close, along with the Badgers' significant edges in both turnover and rebound percentages. As the Badgers showed against Pittsburgh, points can be hard for them to find at times. And Xavier allows just a 47.7 percent effective field goal rate. But -- in yet another similarity to Villanova-Iowa -- the Musketeers give up a bundle of 3-pointers (40.3 percent of attempts). The Badgers may not have the shooters to take advantage. But they should let ‘em fly anyway.

No. 1 Oregon Ducks (92.0) vs. No. 8 Saint Joseph’s Hawks (13.4)

Upset Chance: 17 percent

Had Octavius Ellis dunked a split-second earlier, and had Cincinnati followed up by prevailing in overtime, our model actually would have favored the Bearcats against the Ducks. The odds are longer for Saint Joe’s. The Hawks play fast, yet don’t force turnovers, which is a double-whammy for would-be Giant Killers. Oregon’s weakness is on the defensive boards (30.9 offensive rebound rate allowed), but that’s not Saint Joseph’s game (28.4 percent). DeAndre Bembry and Isaiah Miles are a tough matchup for anyone -- even a No. 1 seed -- but the Hawks will try to beat Oregon by playing conventionally, rather than by going high-variance. Our model thinks they are good enough to pull it off, but the upset isn’t nearly as likely as if they were willing to take a few more risks.

No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies (93.7) vs. No. 11 Northern Iowa Panthers (12.2)

Upset Chance: 12.5 percent

Texas A&M is one of the safest Giants on our boards, sporting the nation’s 10th-ranked D, a healthy turnover margin and some fine work on the offensive glass (34.8 percent of misses). The Aggies demolished Green Bay, and while Northern Iowa is a far tougher foe (especially since the Panthers will slow the tempo), our model still believes in A&M. UNI stood firm on the boards against a big Texas team in its first-round game; expect the Panthers to pack the paint and make the Aggies win the game from the outside. It has worked before: In the Aggies’ past two losses, they shot a combined 13-for-43 from deep. But it’s a strategy that requires a lot of good fortune.