Upsets in the making

LOOKING TO PREDICT some tourney shockers? In our ninth year identifying potential Giant Killers -- teams beating an opponent that's at least five seeds higher -- we trained our statistical model on three types of squads that could put some of the beloved madness into March: flawed but dangerous power-conference teams, vulnerable Giants and those pesky Cinderellas. Let's blow up some brackets ...

Power-conference assassins

We see it every year: Some middling team from a major league barely limps to a .500 conference record and then wallops an unsuspecting favorite in March. Those sorts of upsets defy logic when you examine both teams' bodies of work, but not if you examine the right statistical indicators for high-risk, high-reward strategies, like pressing for turnovers and shooting lots of threes. If our Giant Killers model had eyes, they would be fixed on the following seemingly mediocre squads from the big six conferences.

Oklahoma State
From preseason top 10 to a seven-game Big 12 losing streak, oh, how the Cowboys have fallen. But that collapse (and Marcus Smart's suspension) overshadows the fact that the Pokes have all sorts of statistical goodies to make them a potential nightmare for a high seed. OSU hits 36.9 percent of its threes, rarely turns the ball over (22nd in the country) and forces a healthy number of steals. But most of all, OSU is likely to be underseeded; our model still sees the Cowboys as the No. 14 team in the nation.

The SEC Four-Pack
True, they're each struggling simply to earn a bid, but if Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss or Tennessee makes it into the NCAA tourney, it'll carry a loaded slingshot. The ways these teams attack are a bit different, though. The Razorbacks play the fastest of the bunch, relying on turnovers (sixth in the nation) to fuel the fast break. LSU combines nearly as strong a steal rate with solid offensive rebounding. Mississippi struggles on the boards, but with Marshall Henderson launching threes from all over the court, the Rebels have a shooter's chance. And with Jarnell Stokes and Jeronne Maymon leading the way for the Vols, Tennessee is a load on the offensive boards, grabbing 40.5 percent of its misses. These teams will keep making one another look bad through the SEC tournament, but if any of them manages to crack the field of 68, it could feast on a fresh foe.

Minnesota
New coach, same scenario. Last year our model adored Tubby Smith's Gophers and their nation-leading offensive rebound rate. That faith paid off when Minnesota sent sixth-seeded UCLA to an early March exit. This season Richard Pitino has taken over the program, and while the Gophers dialed it back on the boards, their three-heavy, steal-seeking style (thank you, Malik Smith) will be just as effective at generating upsets.

Providence
We won't deny that they've muddled their way through the new-look Big East and they sport all sorts of weak spots, but the Friars do enough things well to be considered a dangerous Killer. For instance, even though they can't shoot straight (42.4 FG percent, 272nd in the nation), they get multiple shots thanks to a 36.7 percent offensive rebound rate. They also take care of the ball on offense and limit threes on defense. And while they don't rely on getting to the line (a subtle strength of top Killers, considering you don't want to rely on the refs in March), they also make the most of their chances, topping the country in free throw shooting (79 percent). Coach Ed Cooley's guys knocked off Creighton earlier this season, and they could take out another favorite under the right circumstances.

Shaky giants

It should come as no surprise that the Giant Killers model pegs Syracuse as a near lock to survive a skirmish with any upset-minded squad. (Let's just call a mulligan on BC, okay?) Or that an overachieving Villanova team might not be so solid. But the land of Giants isn't always predictable. In fact, some of the most hyped power schools should be sweating the opening rounds.

Wisconsin
For years, the GK model has proclaimed Wisconsin a safe choice. Not so this time around. The Badgers take a big hit for their inability to force TOs (310th in the country). But they're also dismal on the offensive boards (271st). To survive, they'll have to limit three-point shots and rely on an offense that, led by PG Traevon Jackson, takes great care of the ball (13.0 percent turnover rate).

Michigan
Michigan may feature the nation's third-most efficient offense, but relying on shooting alone tends to spell trouble for Giants who hope to make a deep run. The Wolverines are weak offensive rebounders (29.4 percent) and apply little pressure on D (17.3 percent turnover rate). Look no further than the loss of Mitch McGary -- out indefinitely following Jan. 7 back surgery -- to explain the issues on the boards; his work on the offensive glass was a key factor in last year's championship run.

Creighton
If our model accounted for Wooden Award locks, we'd shower all sorts of bonus points on Doug McDermott's squad. Sadly, it doesn't, and what's left is a Giant that plays more like a Killer -- evidenced by conference wins against Villanova and losses to foes like Providence and St. John's. The Bluejays' offense is fueled largely by threes (risky for a Giant), and their D does a poor job of denying teams beyond the arc and forcing turnovers (324th in the country).

Arizona
The Wildcats haven't been the same team since losing Brandon Ashley to a foot injury on Feb. 1. But Zona's weaknesses could really start to surface against, say, a pesky 8-seed. Although the Cats boast the nation's most efficient D, they don't force a ton of turnovers (129th overall in TO percent), which means a hot-shooting underdog could get a healthy number of looks.

Iowa State
Fred Hoiberg's scrappy collection of castoffs has been one of college basketball's best stories, and DeAndre Kane is a legit Wooden Award and All-America candidate. But the Cyclones will be susceptible early in the tourney because they tend to lose the possession battle. Not only is Iowa State a nonfactor on the offensive glass (27.0 percent, 301st in the nation), it doesn't force turnovers (16.6 percent of opponents' possessions). Oh, and the Cyclones also let foes fire away from deep. That's a terrifying trio of traits.

Mid-major Cinderellas

Conference tournaments can either launch Giant Killers on NCAA runs (hello, Florida Gulf Coast) or wreck their dreams before March Madness even gets under way (goodbye, Denver). Here are five to watch, with best bets for bracket slayage.

Atlantic 10
Ranking first in the country in steals and turnovers per opponent possession, VCU has by far our highest GK rating for any team that could play a Giant. The Rams are good enough overall to earn a midlevel NCAA seed, so their chance to upend a Goliath won't come until the round of 32. Of the A-10 pileup of likely tourney teams behind VCU and probable Giant Saint Louis, our spreadsheets highlight George Washington. The Colonials aren't on many radar screens, but they're above average in shooting and stopping both twos and threes, and they give up an adjusted 95.5 points per 100 possessions (26th in the nation).

MAAC
Iona leads the conference pack, but Manhattan carries more upset potential. Former Rick Pitino assistant Steve Masiello has the Jaspers playing like Louisville lite, generating turnovers, snagging offensive rebounds and clamping down defensively inside and on the perimeter. Check out big man Rhamel Brown, who blocks 17.0 percent of opponents' two-point shots -- best in the nation.

West Coast Conference
It's hard to tell given its plodding pace (329th in the country), but 2013 First Four winner Saint Mary's amps up its offensive efficiency by protecting the ball, draining bombs and grabbing offensive rebounds. To carry their slingshots to the Big Dance alongside WCC top dog Gonzaga, however, the Gaels will have to get by BYU. The Cougars don't play like a Killer -- they'd have a hard time grabbing a turnover from an unattended bakery -- but they have beaten Saint Mary's twice this season and upset the Zags 73-65 on Feb. 20.

C-USA
Harassing opponents into turnovers and positioning accurately for scads of offensive rebounds, undersized Southern Miss plays perfect giant-killing ball. Except the Golden Eagles throw the ball away on 20.7 percent of possessions (304th in the NCAA), which makes them crazily boom or bust (and a lot of fun to watch). Speedy Louisiana Tech shuts down the perimeter, grabs bucket loads of steals and effectively works the ball inside. Our statistical model says the Golden Eagles and Bulldogs are more than just worthy NCAA tournament selections -- they're the two most potent Killers that could face Giants in the round of 64. But they might earn just one bid, or even none, among them if mediocre-shooting Middle Tennessee or sloppy UTEP wins C-USA.

Statistical consultants: Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson of Furman University

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