When the 2014 NCAA tournament arrives, what are the odds we will see plenty of upsets? More than nearly anyone realizes, the answer to that question will be determined over the next couple of weeks by a handful of games in places such as Hattiesburg, Miss., Murfreesboro, Tenn., and Ruston, La. We're talking Conference USA basketball -- action that won't show up even on ESPN3 but will sow your brackets with landmines or dust them with chalk.
No fewer than five teams are crowded atop C-USA, and four will pair off in key contests Thursday night, when Middle Tennessee (with a conference record of 11-2) plays at Louisiana Tech (10-3), and Tulsa (10-3) visits UTEP (10-3). Each, along with Southern Mississippi (10-3), has three regular-season games left to secure a favorable seed in its conference tournament -- and to impress the NCAA selection committee. They've awarded an average of exactly 0.5 at-large bids per year to C-USA programs since Louisville and Cincinnati left the conference in 2006.
And here's the thing: These five teams vary hugely in their Giant-Killing talents.
Most dangerous with a slingshot: Southern Mississippi, which has a Giant Killer Rating of 40.9 (on a scale from 0 to 100), the highest of any team that could play a Giant in the Round of 64, according to our statistical model. Coach Donnie Tyndall has said he wants his squad to play like Kansas on offense -- "We run a high-low motion, but we ball-screen a lot" -- and like Louisville on defense, pressing and trapping everywhere. Result: Southern Miss is one of the most exciting teams to watch in the country, and one of the most statistically extreme.
Severely undersized (Effective Height: minus-3.3 inches, ranking 334th in the NCAA, according to KenPom.com) but extremely aggressive, they stretch out opponent possessions forever (average length: 19.0 seconds, ranking 328th). They seize boatloads of turnovers (23.6 percent of opponent possessions, ranking eighth) and get in position to grab a large share of their own missed shots (39.1 percent, ranking seventh). That's how you generate extra possessions -- and how you beat Giants.
There are downsides here. Like their Kansas role models, except worse, the Golden Eagles often have trouble hanging on to the ball (turnovers on an awful 20.7 percent of possessions, ranking 304th). And opponents who beat their pressure can make hay from the perimeter (35.1 percent on 3-point attempts, ranking 209th). So when Southern Miss is bad, they can be horrid, as in a 24-point loss to UAB earlier this month. It's no coincidence that they return four starters from last year's C-USA conference final against Memphis -- a game where the Golden Eagles came back from seven points down with 38.3 seconds left in regulation, took the Tigers to double overtime, then lost amid a blizzard of missed heaves and free throws. These guys are boom or bust. But when you're a Giant Killer, that's a feature, not a bug.
Louisiana Tech (24.9) also endured an ignominious end to its 2013 season: The Bulldogs suffered back-to-back blowouts against New Mexico State and Denver and then lost in the WAC tournament to 9-21 Texas-San Antonio, after which they, like Southern Miss, headed to the NIT. This season, Louisiana Tech moved to C-USA, though that didn't do much for their strength of schedule (ranking: 220th in the NCAA, according to our model), and maintained two key strengths: up-tempo forcing of turnovers (22.8 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 13th) and shutting down outside shooting (opponents hit just 30.1 percent on 3-pointers, ranking 19th). And the Bulldogs shoot much better from inside (53.3 percent) than they did a season ago, which has boosted their offensive efficiency.
Bottom line: After adjusting for the admittedly weak quality of their foes, Louisiana Tech has outscored opponents by 11.1 points per 100 possessions, the same margin as Missouri and better than Colorado (10.7). They are good enough that they should be right in the mix for an at-large bid, whatever happens in C-USA, though they seem to be fading from national attention.
In contrast, our model sees Middle Tennessee (8.4), Tulsa (4.9) and UTEP (2.0) not just as significantly inferior to Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss in its basic power rankings, but also lacking the special ingredients that power Killers to play over their heads against Giants. The Golden Hurricane, for example, is poor on the offensive glass and weak both ways on the perimeter. And UTEP has one of the worst Killer "secret sauces" in the country.
The Miners throw the ball away one of every five times they touch it (20.0 percent of possessions, ranking 281st in the NCAA) while failing to generate turnovers (17.2 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 246th). And despite being the third-tallest team in the country, they're below average on the offensive boards, and even worse on the other end. That's a terrible recipe for facing NCAA opponents, where you have to create extra net possessions however you can, and not just rely on jump shots you made against weaker opponents in the regular season.
Last weekend, when UTEP played Southern Miss, the Miners shot 62.5 percent inside, but just 28.5 percent from behind the arc. Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles somehow outrebounded them on both ends, even though UTEP had a nine-inch advantage in Effective Height. Nine inches! No surprise, Southern Miss won 77-68.
In a season when very few mid-majors are producing viable Killers, that game previewed the range of possibilities coming out of C-USA. If the conference tournament or selection committee gives Southern Miss (or Louisiana Tech) a ticket to the Big Dance, we'll see extreme underdog-style effort. If it's UTEP (or Middle Tennessee or Tulsa), it might not be pretty.