The big story in the AFC West surrounds the San Diego -- oh, sorry, they’ve moved to Los Angeles. Yep, the Chargers have moved up the coast in California for financial reasons, leaving that excellent city bereft of a football team for the first time since John F. Kennedy was president of the United States. While the Chargers last won double-digit games in 2009, for fantasy purposes this is certainly a relevant team, with a top-10 running back, a productive quarterback and a rookie wide receiver expected to -- wait, what? There’s a back injury? Oh, the news never seems to end with the Chargers.
We’ll delve into the big stories surrounding the intriguing AFC West as we finish up our summer divisional series. After all, next week is August! The NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, NFC West, AFC East, AFC North and AFC South have already been covered, so check ‘em out and thanks for reading!
Top three AFC West changes for fantasy purposes
Other than a franchise moving to a new city, which really doesn’t have much impact for our world, the Chargers made draft-day news by selecting Clemson wide receiver Mike Williams with the No. 7 pick. Williams was expected to take on a high-target role initially, even with Keenan Allen returning from injury and Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin still in the wide receiver discussion, but then came the mid-August news of Mike Williams dealing with a herniated disc in his back, and it could necessitate surgery, which could keep him sidelined a long time. Awesome. The Chargers already can’t be sure about Allen, since he’s played in only nine games the past two seasons due to various serious ailments, and fantasy owners should remain cautious about each, pending more information. At least we know Philip Rivers will be throwing the football.
Speaking of injuries, the Denver Broncos didn’t get to see a lot of running back C.J. Anderson, as a Week 7 knee injury truncated his 2016 season. As a result, the organization brought in former division rival Jamaal Charles, not exactly a bastion of health himself, and chose Coastal Carolina’s De’Angelo Henderson in the sixth round. Perhaps neither newcomer will matter statistically in the least. Charles played in only three games last season and still isn’t close to 100 percent after yet another knee injury, and let’s just say there are many miles on those proverbial tires. Henderson’s investment wasn’t great. Frankly, if you’re an Anderson owner in a dynasty league, you should have been concerned anyway. Anderson has shown bouts of excellence in his inconsistent career, but not enough. Devontae Booker, fourth-round pick in 2016, is clearly in play for touches, so the summer should be interesting.
While Charles ranks eighth in career rushing yards among active players, there’s a guy ahead of him who didn’t play at all last season and he’s returning to the league. Yes, Marshawn Lynch is the new lead back for the Oakland Raiders, who were happy to let the overrated Latavius Murray bolt as a free agent to Minnesota. Lynch was a fantasy stalwart for the Seahawks until injuries, which were hardly a surprise based on his aggressive running style, derailed his 2015 season. Some fantasy analysts expect the old Lynch to return behind a top-10 Oakland offensive line and soar past 1,000 rushing yards while getting back to double-digit touchdowns. Other laugh at the thought of a 31-year-old coming out of retirement and expected to handle workloads he’s used to. The answer is likely somewhere in the middle, making Lynch’s ADP something to watch.
Top three AFC West misconceptions for fantasy
The Chiefs have been one of the better AFC teams in the Andy Reid era, winning 43 regular season games in four seasons, and it sure hasn’t been because quarterback Alex Smith is carrying the offense. The Chiefs want to run. They were middle of the pack in rushing yards last season with Spencer Ware taking over lead duties from Charles, but there seems to be an expectation Ware is a safe fantasy starter full of awesome promise. He didn’t reach 70 rushing yards in a game after Week 7. He scored three rushing touchdowns all season. And injuries cost him a few games and hindered him in others. Ware will likely be drafted as a RB2, but rookie Kareem Hunt, a third-round pick from Toledo, is faster, more elusive and a bigger threat to catch passes. Look for at least a timeshare, with Hunt in a strong position to usurp the starting role and produce big numbers.
Nobody covets or probably even considers Denver Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian in a standard fantasy league, and for good reason. Siemian doesn’t look like a future fantasy star, and plenty doubt the younger, less polished Paxton Lynch will thrive as well. Some believe the Broncos simply want Siemian to perform like the Chiefs’ unexciting Smith, running the offense carefully sans turnovers. As a result, fantasy owners might shy away from Denver wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Well, don’t! A mere 25 players achieved 1,000 receiving yards last season, and the Broncos boasted two of them. Thomas and Sanders combined for 169 receptions as well, and split their 10 touchdown catches evenly. These are productive players, and they were able to produce at this high level, despite pedestrian quarterback play, because no other Broncos were receiving threats. The No. 3 Bronco in receptions was Booker with 31. Third wide receiver Jordan Norwood caught 21 passes. So Siemian doesn’t have to be like Drew Brees statistically to support the fantasy value of two wide receivers, presuming he continues to look their way and only their way.
Raiders quarterback Derek Carr seems to be recovering nicely from a broken fibula sustained in late-December, and he’ll have his own excellent wide receiver duo to look at in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Or is that Crabtree and Cooper? You see, while fantasy owners covet the young, exciting Cooper and expect WR1 numbers from him, it just so happens that Crabtree led the Raiders in receptions, targets and receiving touchdowns in 2016. And he also did this in 2015. This is hardly meant to shine a negative light on Cooper, who is talented and certainly has been productive in his first two seasons. But Crabtree -- and his volume -- isn’t going away, and he remains the underrated option of the two, a veritable steal in ADP. And it probably means Cooper will, ever so modestly, fail to reach expectations yet again.
Division report
Fantasy MVP: Well, it won’t be a quarterback. It never is in this summer series, but this division didn’t feature a top-10 passer in standard scoring, though Carr would have made it if not for injury, and Rivers was close. Siemian and Smith were obviously not. In fact, this division didn’t feature a whole lot of top-shelf fantasy performers at all. Chargers running back Melvin Gordon, who miraculously managed to find his way into the end zone often in his second year – from nary a touchdown to 12 – and more than doubled his receiving yards output, was the top AFC West fantasy option last season and should repeat.
Fantasy LVP: No shortage of candidates here, as Lynch is a boom-or-bust fantasy selection, and really, so are Denver’s Anderson and the Chiefs’ Ware. But Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill gets the nod based on new and likely unattainable expectations in the fantasy world. The Chiefs punted veteran Jeremy Maclin aside, and Hill scored double-digit touchdowns last year, doing so in a variety of ways. But Hill wasn’t a traditional No. 1 or No. 2 wide receiver, as he caught only 61 passes for 593 yards. Expecting Hill, in this run-first offense, to jump to more than 80 receptions and threaten 1,000 receiving yards seems unlikely, thus limiting fantasy potential. It will be also hard for him to repeat his touchdown output. Draft Hill as a third or fourth fantasy wide receiver and plug him in on occasion. Expect WR2 emergence and you probably won’t be pleased.
Relevant option to lose starting role: Start with the three of the four starting running backs in the division on the hot seat, but add in Siemian and Smith as well. The Chiefs could elect to see what rookie Patrick Mahomes is capable of. If that change happens, then Hill really could emerge. Smith just doesn’t throw the football downfield much, or for much success when he does. And Hunter Henry is the starting tight end for the Chargers over Antonio Gates. Oh sure, the Chargers will get Gates another touchdown reception early on so he can break the tie he’s in with Tony Gonzalez for most among tight ends, but Henry will be the far better fantasy and breakout option.
Top fantasy rookie: Hunt should at least share the touches with Ware in Kansas City, with potential for much more. And since it is still July we shouldn’t discount the possibility of Mike Williams suddenly regaining health and starring for the Chargers. But Hunt is the safer bet.
Sophomore to watch: Denver’s Booker might not get noticed this summer, but he’s on the prowl and Anderson isn’t durable. And Hunter Henry should be a top-10 tight end.
Summer depth chart watch: Denver, Kansas City and Oakland running backs, and Chiefs wide receivers as well. Maclin, now a Raven, wasn’t overly productive in his 12 games last season, and perhaps no Chiefs wide receiver can compete with tight end Travis Kelce for targets, but Hill, Chris Conley, Albert Wilson and De’Anthony Thomas will try.
Summer injury watch: Mike Williams and Jamaal Charles would seem to top the list, but Kelce had shoulder surgery months ago, and Gordon had knee and hip injuries. They’ll be going considerably earlier in drafts.
Potential summer ADP stock fluctuation: If Hill goes before Sanders, that’s hardly a surprise, based on hype, but seems a bit ill-advised. And as always, the plight of the rookies will be worth watching. In the case of Hunt, he might still be a bargain because oddly enough, people trust Ware as if he’s safe.