Four franchises at some level of a crossroads inhabit the NFC West, as half the division’s teams changed head coaches and key coordinators, three new kickers were brought in -- always a sure sign of turmoil! -- and all four teams figure they can improve from 2016, which might actually be true. After all, this was the league’s worst division with only 23 combined wins. The Seattle Seahawks were the lone team to win more than it lost, but the defense underachieved, internal strife wasn’t a secret and if things don’t improve, more significant changes could be pending. And that’s the division winner.
Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals seem to be running out of time with the current and still capable quarterback-wide receiver combination, while the Los Angeles Rams really don’t know if their quarterback is good enough and the San Francisco 49ers simply got rid of their passers from 2016, and might do so again next offseason. Plus, the Rams and 49ers have offense-minded head coaches now running things, one of them younger than some of the team’s players. Should be interesting!
So let’s delve deeper into the interesting NFC West, where change was a common theme and more should be coming. The NFC East, NFC North and NFC South have been covered and next week we head to the AFC!
Top three NFC West changes for fantasy purposes
• The Rams and 49ers were the two worst offenses last season in terms of total yards, and while the 49ers did manage to outscore five teams, the Rams somehow averaged a pathetic 14 points per game. Bringing in offense-minded Sean McVay (Rams) and Kyle Shanahan (49ers) to coach makes sense. That’s not to imply the Rams, with sophomore quarterback Jared Goff and shaky weapons and blocking, will suddenly score like the Saints. And the 49ers aren’t in any better shape. But things have to improve, and at least with the starting running backs (Todd Gurley, Carlos Hyde), fantasy owners will be investing early.
• Seattle’s first season sans running back Marshawn Lynch featured no running back reaching 500 rushing yards, so quarterback Russell Wilson was almost forced to reach career highs in attempts, completions, passing yards and, unfortunately, interceptions. The Seahawks want to run, so in comes former Packers legend Eddie Lacy, who is getting way too much attention for the weight clauses in his contract. That doesn’t seem like positive attention, but Lacy, when properly conditioned and motivated, can be effective. He was, for many fantasy leagues, the No. 1 overall pick in 2015. Many seem to like another Seahawks running back’s value considerably better, but we’ll get to that later.
• The 49ers, as previously mentioned, cut ties with all their quarterbacks, including the currently unemployed and possibly blackballed Colin Kaepernick, who it would be tough to argue isn’t significantly better than Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley, C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens, the organization’s current passers. Kaepernick did some great things for the 49ers and nearly won a Super Bowl, but he’s gone. Hoyer to Pierre Garcon and Jeremy Kerley 20 times per contest is the new deal, though the situation to watch for fantasy is at running back, where a kid from Utah was drafted in the fourth round, while a 31-year-old with a three-year NFL gap from 2012-14 was signed as a free agent, and the result of these additions should make Hyde backers nervous.
Top three NFC West misconceptions for fantasy
• Let’s start with this: Gurley isn’t terrible, even though the 2016 statistics might say so. He’s not Barry Sanders or Eric Dickerson, runners who could overcome dismal offensive line work, but he’s pretty good. Gurley just needs more help. Any help. He needs a quarterback to threaten to throw the ball downfield and better blocking, and he probably has that now as Goff has to improve and Andrew Whitworth was signed to play left tackle. The fact that Whitworth is more than three years older than his new head coach shouldn’t really scare anyone, though it’s a fun fact. Here’s another: Gurley can still be a top-10 fantasy running back, so don’t dismiss the possibilities.
• This could be the end for seasoned Cardinals veterans Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald, but don’t let that persuade you into believing they can no longer be effective, reliable fantasy assets. Palmer is certainly more fantasy backup/two-QB league option than starter, but he has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in his past four healthy seasons and was the No. 5 fantasy quarterback in 2015. He can matter and has worked heavily on his footwork this offseason. Due to his age, Fitzgerald will likely be more WR3/flex than top-20 wide receiver in standard drafts, but that’s great value and he’s annually underrated. Fitzgerald led the NFL in receptions and finished 11th at wide receiver in PPR scoring! He’s not done yet! Anyway, nobody’s saying Palmer and Fitzgerald are young. Combined they’re 70. But they still matter.
• Seattle’s Russell Wilson has gone from 849 rushing yards in 2015 to 553 the following season to 259 last season, dropping roughly 300 rushing yards per season. What’s next? He’s going to rush for minus-50 yards? Doubt it. Wilson was hampered last season by a high ankle sprain suffered in the first game and a few weeks later a sprained MCL, and that plus the lack of reliable runners explains why he threw so much. Wilson has still been a top-10 fantasy quarterback in each of his five seasons, and the first four years his legs played a significant role. They certainly can again.
Division report
Fantasy MVP: Of course we’re all rooting for Gurley, Hyde and Lacy, but if I don’t type the name of the Arizona running back right here you’ll likely click elsewhere and start tweeting me mean emojis. David. Johnson.
Fantasy LVP: What’s compelling about this division, among myriad options, is that any of the other three starting running backs could end up with this designation. Who else fits better? Most leagues will invest in only one of the NFC West quarterbacks. There are maybe two or three top-30 fantasy wide receivers to select from. Kickers? Good for them. I think Gurley will surprise in a good way, so it’s Hyde or Lacy. I actually think neither approaches 1,000 rushing yards or 16 games, so let’s call this one a sad tie and as always, it doesn’t mean they’ll be unplayable, but disappointing based on draft-day investment.
Relevant option to lose starting role: Hyde and Lacy? Seriously, Utah’s Joe Williams has game. He’s got the size and speed to push Hyde aside, especially when Hyde always seems to be dealing with some ailment. Lacy might be in better shape than we remember, but he’s not svelte. C.J. Prosise, the 2016 third-rounder from Notre Dame, might not be durable himself, but he’s probably better. Don’t be shocked when the 49ers use a time-share of Williams with Tim Hightower and the Seahawks rely heavily on Prosise. Meanwhile, I don’t think any of the starting quarterbacks lose their job, but only one is truly fantasy-relevant to start with.
Top fantasy rookie: Certainly Joe Williams in San Francisco should be watched this summer and the Rams and Cardinals could make wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Chad Williams relevant right away, but Williams is the pick.
Sophomore to watch: Goff doesn’t have to be worth owning in a fantasy league to make others around him plausible options. Perhaps he’ll look to fellow sophs Pharoh Cooper and Mike Thomas. Goff and Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz will be forever linked from the 2016 draft, but one of them boasts a lot better weapons than the other. Seattle’s Prosise also could be on the verge of stardom, Lacy scale heroics notwithstanding.
Summer depth chart watch: Keep an eye on Arizona’s John Brown, entering his critical fourth season and hopefully with the scary health issues a thing of the past. Brown is still extremely fast and he showed it in 2015. If he’s not healthy, the Cardinals have other speedsters in J.J. Nelson, Jaron Brown and Chad Williams, and team insiders say undrafted rookie Carlton Agudosi, checking in at 6-foot-6, has a chance.
Summer injury watch: John Brown’s hamstring issues, among other things, could derail him, while teammate Jaron Brown tore his ACL halfway through last season. Rams disappointment Tavon Austin, entering his fifth season with his role problematic, had offseason wrist surgery. Seattle wide receiver Tyler Lockett is recovering from compound leg fractures, but should be ready for training camp. And it’s always something with Hyde and Seattle tight end Jimmy Graham.
Potential summer ADP stock fluctuation: All it takes is one guy or gal in your league(s) to remember the upside we’ve seen with Gurley, Hyde and Lacy, so watch their collective values bounce up and down whenever news from camp leaks out. [He] looked great today. [He] fumbled twice. [His] backup is trending up. I also think most people don’t realize Garcon caught 79 passes for 1,041 yards last season, so when they do his ADP will likely move him into WR3 territory. Hey, he could do it again. The well-traveled Hoyer has had stints of effectiveness in his past, and this offense could throw a lot.
Next up: AFC East