No NFC East offense will look as different this season as the Philadelphia Eagles, for team management made it a wise priority to surround franchise quarterback Carson Wentz with reasonable weapons for his sophomore season. Some in the fantasy world might simply dismiss Wentz as statistically viable since his rookie campaign was inconsistent and he rarely threw downfield, but the truth is it’s tough to succeed with Nelson Agholor and Dorial Green-Beckham starting at wide receiver and an offensive line in flux. Quarterbacks tend to make measurable strides in Year 2, so perhaps Wentz can duplicate the improvement shown by Oakland Raiders starter Derek Carr in his second season.
Proven veterans Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith should start on the outside with Jordan Matthews remaining in the slot, and the Eagles also upgraded at running back with bruiser LeGarrette Blount likely to handle the bulk of the attempts, with a trio of smaller gents catching passes out of the backfield. Tight end Zach Ertz is better than most realize and excellent right tackle Lane Johnson will presumably avoid suspension in 2017. The team was 2-8 in games Johnson missed, 5-1 when he suited up. Add it up and it hardly means Wentz becomes an instant, top-10 fantasy option, but at least if he struggles again he can be judged a bit more properly. And he might not struggle at all.
As we jump from division to division during the next two months, we’ll be focusing on changing situations and values in the fantasy world, and the Eagles clearly deserve more attention based on their offseason adjustments. For now it’s premature to call Wentz more than a fantasy backup, but much around him was upgraded, so the pieces appear in place. Plus, the Eagles didn’t exactly shore up a troubled secondary and the lure of shootouts is rarely bad news for a quarterback. Just ask Carr, who has been in plenty of them the past two seasons.
Top three NFC East changes for fantasy purposes
• The Eagles were 24th in passing yards last season and tied for 30th in yards per attempt and with a rookie quarterback who found out he was the starter about a week before the season started, when Sam Bradford was jettisoned. Jeffery has certainly been a top-10 wide receiver in the past and Smith should at least stretch the field, opening things up for Matthews and Ertz. Wentz should add at least 10 touchdown passes to his sure-to-improve ledger.
• The Redskins were second in passing yards and yards per attempt with Kirk Cousins leading the way, but Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson have moved on. Still, Terrelle Pryor Sr. outscored each in fantasy as a Cleveland Brown and now he’s got a legit quarterback. Josh Doctson should be relevant, too. For more on Cousins remaining a top-10 fantasy QB, here’s my recent blog entry.
• As for the New York Giants, veteran Rashad Jennings sure can dance like a champ, but he’s currently looking for NFL work and Paul Perkins is ready for relevance. Look for Perkins to eclipse 200 rushing attempts, a figure only 19 running backs actually reached last season, and return weekly flex viability, at the least.
Top three NFC East misconceptions for fantasy
• Giants wide receiver Brandon Marshall joins his fifth NFL team, but for the first time he will not be the No. 1 target. Odell Beckham Jr. is a first-round fantasy choice and doesn’t share the attention so well. The No. 2 Giant in targets and catches last season was rookie Sterling Shepard with 105 and 65, respectively. Marshall might not even see as much love as that, because Shepard is still here. Still, some might incorrectly view Marshall as likely to return to his 100-reception days. Fantasy owners selecting Marshall as even a top-20 wide receiver will likely be disappointed.
• Blount scored 18 touchdowns for last season’s New England Patriots. He’s certainly not going to do this in Philly, so draft him as more of a flex choice than surefire starter. There are numerous reasons for this, of course. For one, Blount could lose as many as a third of his 299 rushing attempts. Last season, Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood combined for 171 totes. Two, 18 touchdowns is a ton. Three, the well-traveled Blount hasn’t had much success working with coaches not named Bill Belichick. Blount will be fortunate to flirt with 1,000 rushing yards and half the scores.
• We haven’t even mentioned the defending division champion Dallas Cowboys yet! Why does everyone assume Dak Prescott can’t repeat his tremendous rookie season? ESPN Fantasy projects a similar point total, one with a few more interceptions and a few less rushing scores but also modest improvement as a passer. Let’s not forget that last part. Prescott can improve. He should be a top-10 QB again.
Division report
Fantasy MVP: Hard to find a contender other than Ezekiel Elliott and Beckham, each a first-round selection in a fantasy league. Elliott gets the nod.
Fantasy LVP: Blount should be exactly what the Eagles need for short-yardage situations, but fantasy owners are likely to be disappointed based on draft-day investment.
Relevant option to lose starting role: Washington’s Robert Kelley is hardly guaranteed snaps over rookie Samaje Perine, but it’s worth noting Chris Thompson catches the passes from the backfield as well, muting anyone’s upside.
Top fantasy rookie: Perine in D.C. and the Giants could go with Evan Engram at tight end, though it’s rare for a rookie tight end to aid fantasy owners enough. This is not the division to look at rookie fantasy providers.
Sophomore to watch: All eyes will be on Perkins because the running back position is bereft of reliable options after about Round 2, but a healthy Doctson is also getting prime opportunity.
Summer depth chart watch: Perhaps the Cowboys, the team that rushed the ball more than any other last season, don’t much care who starts on the other side across from Dez Bryant, but many would be more intrigued by Brice Butler instead of Terrance Williams. Also, is Sproles clearly the prime backfield pass-catcher in Philly? Probably not.
Summer injury watch: Fantasy owners have to be a little concerned about Dallas’ Bryant and Washington tight end Jordan Reed. The former has missed 10 games the past two seasons with foot and knee woes, while the latter dealt with a shoulder injury and concussions. Let’s hope for summer health.
Potential summer ADP stock fluctuation: It’s probably Perkins and Perine moving up, while Marshall figures to get a bit too much love. Also, Philly’s Matthews shouldn’t be forgotten as a busy slot option.
Next up: NFC North