A total of 25 players reached 1,000 receiving yards last season. Included in that impressive group were four sets of teammates from the Saints, Broncos, Raiders and Redskins. Each of the Broncos and Raiders are back with their teams, and one of the Saints is off to New England. In Washington, well, quarterback Kirk Cousins is going to be relying on some new weapons. To me this isn’t that big of a deal, but after reading a recent NFL Insiders article in which Washington’s offense was mentioned by four of six writers as getting measurably worse this offseason, perhaps I am missing something.
Cousins happened to be the quarterback I selected in my first mock draft of 2017, albeit notably with my final-round pick, and I had plenty of ammunition to back up the choice. Cousins was a surprise top-10 performer in 2015 with his 4,166 passing yards and 29 touchdown passes, and he was even better last season with 4,917 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. A mere four quarterbacks and six flex-eligible others scored more fantasy points, making Cousins the No. 11 overall scorer. Surely that couldn’t have all been thanks to his since-departed offensive coordinator Sean McVay and 30-year-old wide receivers Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson.
Still, fantasy owners tend to dissect and overthink all information at their disposal and the change around Cousins is a compelling one, similar to, I suppose, what Detroit Lions ace Matthew Stafford dealt with last offseason, though he actually improved his final fantasy ranking sans Calvin Johnson. McVay left to coach the Los Angeles Rams. Garcon got big money in San Francisco and Jackson is a key Buccaneer. I’m sure Cousins wishes them all well, but Washington has more than reasonable replacements for each fellow. Former NFL quarterback Matt Cavanaugh was the team’s quarterbacks coach the past two seasons. He knows Cousins and this offense well. Terrelle Pryor Sr. was one of the aforementioned 1,000-yard receivers for Cleveland and Josh Doctson was the 22nd pick in the 2016 draft after he produced big numbers at TCU.
Let’s not overthink this, please: Washington’s offense could actually be better, and it was already third in total yards and just outside the top 10 in points. OK, change is always scary and I can’t say I’ll be recommending the team’s defense one bit, but we like shootouts, don’t we? Cousins, 28, and his weapons don’t pale in comparison to me. Yes, this is a quarterback who entered the league with little fanfare as a backup to Robert Griffin III, but everyone needs to move past this designation. Pryor and Doctson can replace Garcon and Jackson. Tight end Jordan Reed is still great. Jamison Crowder is a terrific slot option. And the running game should be improved by the drafting of Oklahoma’s Samaje Perine.
The 2015 Redskins featured nary a 1,000-yard receiver, and it didn’t stop Cousins from his breakout. Reed led the way in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns and did so in just 14 games -- he tends to miss the occasional contest -- while Jackson missed six games and his targets were divided among several players. Garcon wasn’t special, averaging 10.8 yards per catch. He was better in 2016 in a contract push, getting back to better than 9 yards per target and producing as many 20-plus yard plays as he had the two previous years combined, but he scored only three touchdowns in 2016. Pryor is a bigger, faster and younger version who had a similar statistical season with Cody Kessler, Josh McCown and a broken down Griffin as the main quarterbacks. Imagine what Pryor can do with Cousins.
Doctson is a bit more of a question mark for obvious reasons. He barely contributed as a rookie thanks to a season-ending Achilles tear, and even if healthy there were concerns whether he was ready for a starring role. Most receivers aren’t immediate stars. But Doctson is participating fully in the organization’s offseason workouts and voluntary training and he has the size and speed to be a devastating outside weapon. Jackson remains faster than just about everyone and his ability to stretch the field and consistently make big plays is unique, but he never caught as many as 60 passes in any of his three Washington seasons. Doctson should be a suitable big-play threat, and while some degree of production is needed, he doesn’t need to get to 1,000 yards for the offense and Cousins to survive.
Throw in the unstoppable Reed, the underrated Crowder and pass-catching running back Chris Thompson, and this passing offense will remain prolific. In fact, check out ESPN’s projections to see what colleague Mike Clay expects: Cousins ends up with more than 4,600 passing yards and 24 touchdowns, although his rushing touchdown “prowess” takes a minor hit, but it still means another top-10 fantasy campaign at quarterback. Reed and Pryor top 1,000 receiving yards and Crowder comes within a few 10-yard catches of making it three Cousins weapons achieving the statistical milestone. Doctson doesn’t match the 2016 Jackson season in yards, but he’s right there in catches and touchdowns. This offense actually boasts considerably more upside than 2016, if that’s possible.
Fantasy owners want bottom lines and, in this case, I admit to being a bit more confident in Cousins repeating his effectiveness than I might be in Pryor and Doctson reaching expectations, but quarterbacks find a way. Cousins isn’t always pretty, but the numbers are there. Yes, another concussion for Reed would alter things quite a bit, but he’s definitely the top Cousins target when healthy, which remains most of the time. He’s missed six games in two years and should return to 2015 production. Fantasy teams can overcome it and Cousins was more than competent when Reed was absent. Washington’s questionable defense only serves to put Cousins in a better position to need to produce. Yes, change can be scary and perhaps Washington can’t win half its games, but Cousins and his perceived lack of weapons won’t be the reason.