We've officially reached the stage of the NFL offseason when we have a much better idea of how all 32 rosters will look in Week 1. So it's time for our six NFL insiders to recalibrate their early predictions for the 2017 season. They'll be hitting on the following topics:
Who was the most underrated team in our post-draft Power Rankings?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: The Minnesota Vikings (21st) weren't going to completely fix the offensive line issues in one offseason, but they added some new pieces up front in a West Coast system that caters to quarterback Sam Bradford's skill set. The game plan in Minnesota should be to get the ball out quickly in the passing game, while also running the ball with Latavius Murray and rookie Dalvin Cook. With a defense under Mike Zimmer that can create chaos for opposing quarterbacks, the Vikings should be in the playoff discussion this season.
Dan Graziano, NFL Insider: I have concerns about the Cincinnati Bengals' offensive line, but ranking them 23rd seems to ignore how good they've been prior to last year. With A.J. Green coming back, the possibility of a healthy Tyler Eifert and all those pieces they still have on defense, they remain the top challenger to Pittsburgh in the AFC North and a strong candidate for a bounce-back season. They made the playoffs five years in a row before last season.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: The Los Angeles Chargers (25th) loaded up on offensive weaponry to complement an emerging defense. Their offensive line could be better. They still have some of the same depth concerns that could derail them in the season's second half, but this is a potential sleeper team. Cincy (23rd) was another team that came to mind.
Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders: The Philadelphia Eagles went 7-9 last year, and outscored opponents by 36 points. They did this against the second-toughest schedule in the league based on average DVOA of opponent. How does that equal the No. 22 team in the league, especially when the quarterback is likely to improve now that he has a year of NFL experience? They certainly aren't going 1-6 in close games again.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: The Eagles are a team that should challenge for a playoff spot, not one that will finish among the bottom third of the league. They have set up quarterback Carson Wentz to improve in his second season. And amid all the debate about defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz's scheme, it can at least be counted on to cause turnovers. (It had 26 takeaways last season, 10th in the NFL.) The Eagles rank No. 15 in ESPN's Football Power Index. That makes more sense to me than 22nd.
Field Yates, NFL Insider: Like Dan mentioned, the Bengals' offensive line is a major concern, but it's worth noting that this team was among the most consistent in football prior to a cratering last season. With a healthy A.J. Green, better offensive skill players and a defense that's still very good, there are reasons for optimism. The biggest hurdle Cincinnati might have to clear is a difficult AFC North. Pittsburgh should be one of the best AFC teams this season, and Baltimore is stout defensively.
Who was the most overrated team?
Bowen: The QB situation in Houston (11th) is still a question mark heading into the 2017 season. Even with a defensive front seven that can terrorize opposing offenses now that J.J. Watt is back in the mix, we still don't know what type of production and consistency Bill O'Brien can get from his quarterback. Tom Savage is unproven and Deshaun Watson, a player I believe has the tools and intangibles to develop in the pros, is a rookie. Yes, the Texans can compete for an AFC South crown, but I don't see this club as a borderline top-10 team in the NFL.
Graziano: All due respect to what the Dallas Cowboys did last year and their terrific offensive line, but I don't see them as a top-five team in the league this year while playing a first-place schedule and with all those losses in the defensive secondary. They could still win the NFC East, as I think the Giants confront similar (possibly worse) schedule issues, but I think both of the top teams in that division will take slight steps back in 2017.
Sando: The Atlanta Falcons will have a hard time living up to their No. 2 billing after suffering a crushing loss in the Super Bowl and then losing both coordinators. Denver (10th) also seems potentially overrated based on questionable quarterbacking and a defense that might be closer to good than great.
Schatz: If you look at underlying performance in 2016 rather than just wins and losses, the Texans were a terrible team. Outscored by 49 points last season, Houston ranked 29th in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings. Yes, the defense gets Watt back healthy, but the Texans lose A.J. Bouye, who was their best cornerback last season. And on offense, there's no reason to believe either Savage (ever) or Watson (in the short run) would be more than a small improvement on Brock Osweiler.
Seifert: It is too hard to overlook the Falcons at No. 2 on this list. They're in that lofty position mostly because they were one of two teams that played on the final day of the 2016 season. But much has happened since the kickoff of Super Bowl LI, including the mental blow of losing a 25-point lead, as well as high turnover on the coaching staff. They're talented enough to be a playoff team, but let's hold off on considering them among the league's elite.
Yates: The Miami Dolphins won nine of their last 11 games to close out the 2016 regular season, capturing the final AFC playoff spot before a humbling playoff loss to Pittsburgh. (Miami was without quarterback Ryan Tannehill.) But, despite the double-digit wins, the Dolphins had a flawed defense, and concerns still linger. Tannehill is on track to be 100 percent to begin the season, with Weeks 8-14 as the pivotal stretch for this team based on its schedule. Miami has its work cut out for itself to return to the postseason.
Which new player will make biggest difference in 2017?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: If healthy and on the field, new Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery is an immediate upgrade for Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia offense. He has the size and frame to run inside breaking routes and cause matchup problems in the red zone. His skill set is a perfect match for Doug Pederson's system.
Dan Graziano, NFL Insider: Over the past two seasons, Jameis Winston ranks 20th in the NFL with 1,265 passing yards on throws traveling at least 20 yards in the air. Winston ranks 30th in completion percentage and 24th in QBR on such passes. Over the same time period, Kirk Cousins ranks third, fourth and eighth in the same categories. DeSean Jackson is my answer.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Few non-quarterbacks are good enough to add victories to their teams by themselves. Jackson and Calais Campbell could be rare exceptions. The Tampa Bay offense and the Jacksonville defense should spike noticeably this season because of these two players.
Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders: I'm going with Jeffery, because it is hard to overstate just how bad the Eagles' wide receivers were a year ago. Jeffery has averaged 15 yards per catch in the NFL; his biggest problem has been staying on the field.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Martellus Bennett will give Aaron Rodgers over a full season what Jared Cook managed for the final three weeks of 2016 and then the playoffs: a playmaking tight end who changes the way teams defend the Packers. Rodgers noted often how Cook impacted the team, much like Jermichael Finley before him, and Bennett is cut from the same cloth.
Field Yates, NFL Insider: It's never easy choosing just one, but the addition of Tony Jefferson gives the Ravens all sorts of flexibility in the back end. The safety duo of him and Eric Weddle -- one of the game's most consistent players -- should bode well for coordinator Dean Pees. The rising value of the safety position around the league should not be overlooked.
The Patriots' biggest challenger in 2017 will be ________ .
Bowen: The Oakland Raiders have some of the key traits necessary to challenge the Patriots: pass-rush ability; an offensive line that can control tempo; and enough offensive weapons to create explosive plays. To beat New England, you must have a physical identity on both sides of the ball. And Oakland has that under Jack Del Rio.
Graziano: The addition of Marshawn Lynch allows the Raiders to play more physically than in 2016, which gives them options that should only help their explosive passing game. They have a game-changing pass-rusher in Khalil Mack and enough pieces on defense to give the Patriots a tough time head-to-head. I like Oakland's chances to hold off Kansas City and Denver in a tough division, if Derek Carr can stay healthy.
Sando: The Steelers are that team from a pure talent standpoint, but the Seahawks have shown they match up well enough with New England to be the most problematic challenger. The Seahawks won at Gillette Stadium last season, even though Russell Wilson was less than full strength. A few years ago, Seattle had a double-digit lead on New England in the Super Bowl before Cliff Avril's injury gutted its pass rush.
Schatz: I'm going with the Raiders too. The Patriots travel to Pittsburgh, giving the Steelers a leg up on passing New England for the AFC's No. 1 seed. But Tom Brady has sliced through the Pittsburgh defense so many times now that I have no faith in the Steelers beating the Patriots in the postseason without a huge defensive leap forward and a change in scheme. Oakland will probably need to beat the Patriots in a neutral-site Mexico City game if they want home field in the playoffs, but at least Raiders' young talent will give the Patriots something different to try to beat.
Seifert: Father Time. The only way the Patriots are not the NFL's best team this season is if Brady suddenly hits the wall, either through an age-related performance slip or by injury. And even then, with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett behind him, the drop-off wouldn't be severe. The team that has the best chance to overtake the Patriots is the Steelers: A Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback, substantial offensive firepower and a defense that can rush the passer is always a threat to win.
Yates: The Green Bay Packers, but there will be many. Not to simplify things, but it's incredibly hard to win in the NFL. No matter the opponent. The Patriots look excellent on paper, but nothing will come easy for them. The Packers, Seahawks, Steelers, Chiefs and Falcons are among other potential top teams. I also think the Vikings will be very good.
Which QB will make the biggest leap forward in 2017?
Bowen: Eagles QB Carson Wentz is my pick after the flashes he showed as a rookie, along with the upgrades Philly made at wide receiver. Alshon Jeffery is a great fit for the Eagles' scheme, and Torrey Smith can still blow the top off the secondary with his vertical speed. Both players should facilitate more production from Wentz in his second season.
Graziano: OK, laugh, but I'll say Tyrod Taylor. He has the eighth-best Total QBR in the league since the start of the 2015 season -- better than guys such as Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers and Andrew Luck. And that has been with Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy missing 16 combined games over the past two seasons. Taylor knows new Bills offensive coordinator Rick Dennison from their time together in Baltimore, which bodes well for his ability to take another step forward in 2017.
Sando: Wentz's rookie numbers were modest (16 touchdowns, 14 interceptions), leaving significant room for improvement. The Eagles also added weapons around him, which should help his cause. I'm less optimistic about Blake Bortles, and I think if his efficiency improves, it will have more to do with the Jaguars' defense and running game lightening the load.
Schatz: Jared Goff is the choice here, but only because he was so bad last year that "not the worst starting quarterback in the league" would qualify as a colossal leap forward. Having Sean McVay around to run the Rams' offense will be a big help, though; last year's game film should all be burned and forgotten.
Seifert: Wentz tailed off badly as a rookie after a strong start, finishing 2016 with the NFL's fifth-worst QBR (52.8), but he'll benefit from the Eagles' aggressive additions at receiver and also a full year with right tackle Lane Johnson.
Yates: Wentz must rectify his mechanics (which skidded downhill as a rookie), but there's plenty to like about his situation. The team beefed up the backfield by signing LeGarrette Blount, while also significantly improving its receiving corps.
Who's the non-playoff team from 2016 that will make the 2017 field?
Bowen: The Indianapolis Colts play in a very winnable division, and new general manager Chris Ballard spent the offseason upgrading the Indianapolis defense. After adding young, ball-hawking talent to the secondary (Malik Hooker and Quincy Wilson) and veterans along the defensive front, the Colts should be in a position to make a run in the AFC South.
Graziano: I like the Los Angeles Rams. Coordinator Wade Phillips' impact on the defense and head coach Sean McVay's intelligence and energy will be enough to vault them to their first winning season since 2003. Also helping their case: The Cardinals are due for a downturn and Seattle's ship looked a little leaky last year. Obviously, there's some concern about how Jared Goff meshes with the new coaching staff and learns a whole new system. But I'll give that staff and running back Todd Gurley the benefit of the doubt. Don't underestimate the impact of veteran left tackle Andrew Whitworth on the offensive line, either.
Sando: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were my choice for most improved (see below), so they're a logical pick here too. The Colts and Chargers are two other teams I'll be watching. Indy has better unity throughout its organization, a favorable schedule and an improved roster. For the Chargers, QB Philip Rivers must reduce his turnovers.
Schatz: I'm driving the Rams bandwagon this year. OK, I guess it's more of a minivan, but more folks should be hopping aboard once they realize Phillips' phenomenal record of improving defenses in his first year as coordinator. (I wrote about that in detail here.) The offense isn't going to be good, but there's no way it will be as bad as last year. The 2016 Rams had the fourth-worst offense in the history of our DVOA stats, which stretches all the way back to 1987. The other teams in the bottom dozen improved by an average of three wins the next year, and three of those teams had winning records.
Seifert: Assuming quarterback Marcus Mariota recovers fully from his broken leg, the Tennessee Titans will have a multifaceted offense with the talent to gain yardage in big chunks. Remember, Mariota had the NFL's fourth-best QBR after Week 5 last season. And the Titans did a nice job addressing their defensive weaknesses this offseason, especially in the back end, by signing cornerback Logan Ryan and safety Johnathan Cyprien while drafting cornerback Adoree' Jackson at No. 18 overall.
Yates: The Buccaneers have added so much horsepower on offense this offseason: DeSean Jackson, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin, to name a few pieces. Plus, guard J.R. Sweezy could be back in the lineup, and the offseason reports on running back Doug Martin are positive. The division is no slouch, but I view Tampa Bay as a 10-win team next season.
Which Year 2 player looks primed for a breakout season?
Bowen: Los Angeles Chargers tight end Hunter Henry had eight touchdown catches as a rookie, and he has the trust of quarterback Philip Rivers inside of the 20-yard line (seven red zone touchdowns in 2016). With the size (6-foot-5) to win matchups and the route-running ability to create separation, Henry is in a position to move ahead of veteran Antonio Gates as one of Rivers' top targets.
Graziano: Tampa Bay pass-rusher Noah Spence had 5.5 sacks in a limited role as a rookie, but I expect his playing time -- and his impact -- to increase in 2017. Remember, this was a first-round talent who fell to the second round because of off-field concerns from early in his college career. He adapted well to what coordinator Mike Smith was teaching last year in Tampa Bay and could be part of a real defensive renaissance there.
Sando: Seahawks RB C.J. Prosise should be primed for a breakout season in Year 2. He flashed great ability with Seattle as a rookie in 2016 -- 156 yards from scrimmage at New England, for instance -- but injuries kept him off the field. Better luck on the health front could let Prosise shine in a situational role.
Schatz: Football Outsiders' DYAR stats had Hunter Henry of the Chargers ranked fifth in total value among tight ends last season. Not bad for a rookie. Gates is still around, but he'll be 37 this season, so the path is open for Henry to become one of the most productive players at the position.
Seifert: Washington receiver Josh Doctson is going to have every opportunity to break out in 2017. The departures of DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon have left it wide-open for him. An Achilles tendon injury largely derailed his rookie season, but coach Jay Gruden knows how to use big receivers with speed.
Yates: A broken leg delayed Sheldon Rankins' start to his NFL career, but the powerful, imposing defensive tackle really showed up for New Orleans last season. In a league where you need to be able to pressure the quarterback from all angles, Rankins profiles as a potentially dominant interior defensive lineman. Eight sacks wouldn't surprise me a bit.
Who will be the NFL's best offense and defense in 2017?
Bowen: The Patriots should create the most issues for opposing defenses this season with a healthy Rob Gronkowski and the addition of wide receiver Brandin Cooks in coordinator Josh McDaniels' offense. Cooks has the electric ability to produce explosive plays on high-percentage throws from Tom Brady. On defense, give me the Seahawks. Getting Earl Thomas back is the key to Seattle's core Cover 3 scheme. This unit wins with the perfect mix of rush and coverage.
Graziano: Offense has to be the Patriots after adding Cooks and bringing in a new crew of RBs that should make the running game much more dynamic. Assuming Brady plays all 16 games (which he didn't last year), you have to imagine New England stays on top. Defensively, give me Denver, which might have come down a bit from its ridiculous 2015 heights but is still a unit that can win games on its own, even without top-end quarterback play.
Sando: Green Bay will push New England after restoring the tight end position, but I agree that the Patriots should have the best offense with Cooks in the equation and Brady playing 16 games instead of 12. On defense, I'll go with the Giants edging out Denver and Seattle. They found a way to re-sign Jason Pierre-Paul, despite giving Olivier Vernon a big contract last offseason.
Schatz: Football Outsiders' projections have Pittsburgh as the best offense going into next season, but I don't think it will end up that way. The Steelers have the game's best receiver and best running back but almost no depth. New England is much better built to survive the inevitable injuries that strike every NFL team during the season. On defense, I have to go with Seattle. The Seahawks' pass defense should return to greatness with Thomas back on the field, and they have a strong run defense as well.
Seifert: The Steelers have the NFL's best offense when quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Le'Veon Bell and receiver Antonio Brown are on the field together. Injuries have derailed that assertion in the past. Defensively, I still love the Broncos from a pure talent perspective and think they'll add a new dimension of aggressiveness under first-year coach Vance Joseph.
Yates: The Patriots were shut out in a game last year and played without Brady for a quarter of a season yet still finished third in scoring. Oh, and Gronk missed significant time because of injury too. Yeah, a healthy Gronk, the addition of Cooks and a multidimensional backfield fits the bill of a top offense. Defensively, I'll go with the Giants as a narrow winner. They kept Pierre-Paul and figure to be better in the secondary with the further development of Eli Apple, who came on strong during his rookie season.
Which team got measurably worse this offseason?
Bowen: On paper, the Washington Redskins' offense looks worse. I like the move to bring in wide receiver Terrelle Pryor. He's a high-ceiling player at the position. But can former first-round pick Josh Doctson stay healthy and contribute in his second season? Washington has to account for losing Pierre Garcon's production/toughness and DeSean Jackson's game-breaking speed. Plus, the Redskins head into the season without playcaller Sean McVay after he took the Rams' head-coaching job. Don't be surprised if Kirk Cousins and the offensive look a little rusty out of the gate.
Graziano: I think the signs are bad in Washington, where Cousins is going to have a tough time repeating his 2015 and 2016 success without Garcon and Jackson (not to mention McVay). This is a team that ran out of gas at the end of last season and lost a lot of key pieces on offense -- and they play in a division where Dallas and New York both should expect to be strong again.
Sando: The Arizona Cardinals seemed to get measurably worse on defense. Losing Calais Campbell is especially going to hurt. Despite the talent exodus, Arizona could actually improve in the standings. The 2016 team lost so many games through special-teams miscues that are unlikely to recur.
Schatz: Departures will leave the Buffalo Bills depending an awful lot on rookies this year, and rookies don't always fulfill their potential right away (if ever). Two of last year's top three receivers are gone. Two of last year's top three cornerbacks are gone. And while LeSean McCoy is still around to keep the running game dangerous, Mike Gillislee was outstanding last year and losing him really hurts Buffalo's depth.
Seifert: The Redskins' offensive organization and creativity took a hit when McVay departed for the Rams' head-coaching job. Plus, Cousins knows the team's confidence in him long term is measured. That's not a good combination -- and it doesn't even begin to address a defense that, charitably, doesn't look much better than the one that allowed 378 yards per game last season (No. 28 in the NFL).
Yates: I can see how Washington plans to replace some of its departed pieces, but it won't be easy. The aforementioned McVay was a terrific match with Cousins. Washington will miss Garcon's reliability and Jackson's big-play spark. The team needs a lot from second-year wideout Doctson, who missed most of his rookie season because of injury.
Which team improved itself the most?
Bowen: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed a true deep-ball threat in wide receiver DeSean Jackson during free agency and then scooped up tight end O.J. Howard in the first round of the draft. Both players will become instant weapons for quarterback Jameis Winston and open up even more opportunities for No. 1 target Mike Evans. After throwing for over 4,000 yards in each of his first two seasons, Winston is now in a position to lead an offense that can create matchup issues at all three levels of the field.
Graziano: The Cleveland Browns could finish 6-10 and be the most improved team in the league. How many teams will make five-game improvements? They've invested in both lines, which is a fine way to start building, and while it's hard to imagine them being an explosive offense with their current situations at quarterback and wide receiver, coordinator Gregg Williams and the players that Cleveland drafted on defense should make a difference on that side of the ball.
Sando: The moves Tampa Bay made on offense, in particular, make the Buccaneers a compelling choice as the most improved team this offseason. I'm not sure how much they'll improve upon their 9-7 record from last season -- nine wins was on the high side of most projections -- but the offense is in position to take a significant step forward.
Schatz: Cleveland has done an impressive job in improving its roster this offseason, signing two starting offensive linemen in free agency (both still in the prime of their careers), drafting three first-rounders all under the age of 22 and finally finding a second-round lottery ticket at quarterback. (That last one might not pay off, but it also won't stop them from using a first-round pick if they feel the right quarterback is there next year.) We won't all be talking about the Browns' improvement when they go from 1-15 to 5-11, but this is all going to pay off handsomely in three years.
Seifert: New Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard did a great job filling holes with talented veterans. They added a dozen veteran free agents, with a focus on defensive line and linebacker. Keep in mind that the Colts had signed a total of 10 free agents in the previous nine offseasons combined. Nose tackle Johnathan Hankins and linebacker Jabaal Sheard were particularly smart signings. Ballard has effectively set a new tone in Indianapolis.
Yates: This might come as a surprise, as the organization hasn't had the splashiest offseason, but I'm a fan of the Los Angeles Rams' offseason. Their No. 1 priority was finding a head coach who could help Jared Goff in his progression. They did just that by hiring Sean McVay, who assembled a terrific coaching staff on both sides of the ball. The Rams also bolstered the offensive line by signing left tackle Andrew Whitworth. Goff's supporting cast is unquestionably stronger, as compared to his rookie season.