As soon as the Minnesota Vikings made running back Adrian Peterson the seventh overall draft selection in 2007, the fortunes of the franchise changed for the better. Peterson rushed for more than 11,000 yards for the Vikings. While the Oklahoma product didn’t help the team or fantasy owners in two of the past three seasons due to injuries, it’s only now that he’s officially moved on that the Vikings can as well. The organization did precisely that, adding two signature running backs, which of course brings little clarity for fantasy owners seeking precisely that.
Veteran Latavius Murray rushed for more than 1,800 yards and scored 18 touchdowns for the Oakland Raiders the past two seasons and signed as a free agent. Dalvin Cook was extremely productive at Florida State, averaging 6.5 yards per carry and scoring 46 touchdowns in 38 games. He was selected in the second round in April. Time-shares tend to be a drag for fantasy owners and it might seem like the Vikings don’t want to run or simply can’t, as they were last in the NFL in rushing yards and yards per attempt in 2016, but oh, they desperately want to run and will. They sure don’t want Sam Bradford throwing 40 times per game.
The 2015 Vikings, with a revitalized Peterson, were fourth in the league in rushing yards and attempts. That’s the template the team wants to use, along with its rugged defense, to win football games, and the Murray/Cook summer/fall battle for playing time will be one of the more striking ones for fantasy owners. I’ve seen enough of the ordinary Murray to believe Cook will be winning this job, assuming he’s healthy, can avoid fumbles and doesn’t embarrass himself pass protecting hard-charging linebackers. After all, Bradford’s durability has been a problem. Cook is the better running back, but let’s see how the summer plays out.
Each week in June/July we’ll be highlighting an NFL division and focusing on the altered situations and values in the fantasy world. Last week it was the NFC East. Now it’s Peterson’s former division.
Top three NFC North changes for fantasy purposes
• Minnesota’s running back overhaul and apparent distrust in Jerick McKinnon -- who can blame them? -- tops the list, but the Green Bay Packers also moved on from a once-productive running back in Eddie Lacy, who now calls Seattle home. Lacy played a mere five contests last season and Ty Montgomery moved from wide receiver to running back, and handled himself nicely. Now he’s the clear starter, despite several intriguing rookies being added, though we await word if a uniform change from No. 88 is pending. Yep, it’s still weird seeing No. 88 take regular handoffs.
• The Chicago Bears have a new look at quarterback, as the three underwhelming starters from last season (Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley) have moved on and three new names that fantasy owners can ignore this season have arrived. Perhaps that’s not entirely fair. Mike Glennon had a few moments in Tampa Bay. He’s tall and has a decent arm. Mitchell Trubisky was good enough at North Carolina to warrant the organization trading up to acquire him. Mark Sanchez? Well, he did make a few AFC championship games! The Bears have one surefire fantasy option, and it’s their running back. Let’s not get too greedy.
• Perhaps it’s a bit of a reach, but Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford again lost an important wide receiver, this time his top touchdown maker from 2016. Anquan Boldin moved on, and third-round pick Kenny Golladay could step into a more important role as a downfield threat the team lacked. The Northern Illinois product has the size to matter in the red zone right away, and it’s hard to ignore the fact that starting receiver Marvin Jones was terribly unproductive once September ended. Boldin averaged fewer than nine yards per catch. Golden Tate and Theo Riddick also make their money on short passes. Golladay could be Stafford’s home run guy.
Top three NFC North misconceptions for fantasy
• Fantasy owners might talk themselves into ignoring Bears running back Jordan Howard in the top 20 because of either the changes at quarterback or Howard’s real-life, later-round draft status. Neither angle makes much sense. The Bears featured mostly incompetent quarterback play last season, and still Howard emerged to finish 10th among fantasy running backs in PPR scoring. He achieved that despite barely playing the first two weeks, as the team foolishly relied on Jeremy Langford, and with little involvement in the passing game. As for being a fifth-round NFL pick, so what? Most every running back in the NFL was awesome in college. The kids can play. It’s about opportunity and adjustments in the NFL.
• Stafford’s first season sans future Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson was hardly an unmitigated statistical disaster, as some predicted. In fact, Stafford threw for more yards, had a slightly higher yards per attempt and yards per completion and while it’s not a stat we look at for fantasy, his QBR was a career high 70.5. At the least it shows he played well. He finished among the top-10 quarterbacks in fantasy scoring for the fourth time in six seasons, and he did so with no running back reaching 400 rushing yards and basically one reliable receiver.
• Aaron Rodgers has plenty of weapons at his disposal, so the notion that adding tight end Martellus Bennett will either detract from the production of others or make this undeniably Bennett’s best season yet is a bit silly. Yes, Bennett should matter. He led tight ends with 90 catches for the 2014 Bears and last year with Tom Brady averaged 12.7 yards per reception. But he’s still Bennett, and he’s 30. The Packers have received occasional production from their tight ends in recent seasons, and those owning Rodgers, Jordy Nelson or Lacy barely noticed. Richard Rodgers caught 58 balls and eight touchdowns in 2015. Jermichael Finley had a few seasons of relevance back in the day. Bennett needs Rodgers more than the other way around. It doesn’t mean he can’t be a top-10 tight end, but let’s not overrate this, either.
Division report
Fantasy MVP: Rodgers is the only NFC North quarterback likely to be owned in all leagues -- which is a mistake, since Stafford is fine -- but fantasy owners really should wait on the position. Nelson gets the nod over Howard.
Fantasy LVP: Not that it’s so obvious in June, but I think Cook is better than Murray in Minnesota, so for those using a top-50 pick on Murray, well, plan ahead. Also, Davante Adams should go several rounds ahead of Randall Cobb, but that doesn’t always appear the case.
Relevant option to lose starting role: Jones jumps out as the obvious name, since he didn’t do much statistically for most of 2016 and depth is present (Golladay, TJ Jones, Jared Abbrederis), but it’s also fair to note that the Packers drafted three running backs and Montgomery is relatively unproven at the position. Fourth-round pick Jamaal Williams from BYU is strong and physical and it’s easy to see how Williams ends up handling the LeGarrette Blount-type duties and Montgomery morphs into more of a Darren Sproles-type receiving role from the backfield.
Top fantasy rookie: Minnesota’s Cook has a wonderful opportunity here to sail past 1,000 total yards and score the touchdowns as well.
Sophomore to watch: Vikings receiver Laquon Treadwell was supposed to contribute right away after being a 2016 first-round selection, but alas, he caught a mere one more pass than you and I did. He needs to stay healthy and overcome veterans Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Michael Floyd, and he would have been better served with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, but still, he is a first-round talent. Also, Bears wide receiver Kevin White was drafted in 2015, so this is technically his third season, but he’s played four games so far. Watch him anyway. He’s talented.
Summer depth chart watch: There’s lots to watch in this division, but something not yet touched on is the running back situation in Detroit. Ameer Abdullah looked good in Week 1 of last season against the Colts, totaling 120 yards and adding a touchdown. And just that quickly he was done with a foot injury. The Lions want Riddick to catch passes and bulky Zach Zenner for third-and-inches. A healthy Abdullah could be a great fantasy surprise, but at this point, it’s hard to rely on him.
Summer injury watch: Abdullah and Riddick, the latter coming off surgeries on each wrist, warrant attention. Murray underwent ankle surgery in March and can’t really afford to let Cook do all the on-field shining this summer. It would be nice to see Chicago’s White healthy for September.
Potential summer ADP stock fluctuation: Certainly Cook and Montgomery could each land in RB2 territory soon, and also keep an eye out on Chicago’s wide receivers. Alshon Jeffery is gone, Glennon really shouldn’t be so awful and Cameron Meredith could become an acknowledged WR4 soon, with White and potentially Markus Wheaton being worth owning in 10-team leagues as well. The Bears also employ Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle and Kendall Wright, just to be thorough, but probably not for long.
Next up: NFC South