Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan had achieved several seasons as a top-10 fantasy scorer at his position before 2016 and established a fantasy baseline of sorts, but last season Ryan emerged as far more. Ryan went from borderline 10-team fantasy starter at best to among the best in the sport, and now, coming off a Super Bowl appearance that shouldn’t affect Ryan’s fantasy standing one bit, it’s been rather interesting to see how fantasy owners view the nine-year veteran.
After all, for all the great numbers Ryan produced for fantasy owners last season -- only Arizona running back David Johnson and Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers outscored him -- our final memories of him are, unfortunately, negative ones, and it’s tough to find projections expecting a repeat of his fantastic regular season. It can’t be because Tom Brady and the New England Patriots found a way to make a historic comeback to win the February game, but many still see Ryan as an average statistical provider likely to revert to his old ways. After all, fantasy owners tend to overthink everything.
We’ll delve a bit more into the defending NFC champion Falcons later as we tackle our third summer division report, with the NFC East and NFC North having been covered. For now we investigate the division featuring the past two quarterbacks to lose a Super Bowl, and by the way, Cam Newton didn’t struggle in 2017 because of what happened in his February loss to Denver. Ryan won’t either!
Top three NFC South changes for fantasy purposes
• The Carolina Panthers are clearly a run-first offense, having finished top 10 in the league in rushing yards each season of Newton’s career. Sure, it helps having a running quarterback leading the way, but Jonathan Stewart has never been a 1,000-yard rusher and he doesn’t catch many passes, either. You know who does catch passes? Former Stanford star Christian McCaffrey, selected with the No. 8 overall pick in the April draft. One can debate how this potential time-share will work and we won't know the answer until September, of course, but certainly the rookie can steal the starting role and, well, run and catch with it.
• Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints are certainly not a run-first outfit, but despite the presence of the useful Mark Ingram and the underrated Travaris Cadet for third-down purposes, the organization thought it wise to sign future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson and draft Tennessee’s Alvin Kamara in the third round. It’s going to be a tad crowded. The hierarchy for fantasy purposes appears kind of clear, however, with Ingram going ahead of Peterson while the pass-catcher and the rookie are ignored, but it’s going to be an interesting summer.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston passed for more than 4,000 yards in each of his first two seasons, but did so each time with only one wide receiver he could truly rely on, and that was Mike Evans. In 2015, the statistical No. 2 receiver was Vincent Jackson with 33 catches for 543 yards and three touchdowns. Last year, Jackson barely played and Adam Humphries was second among Bucs wide receivers with 55 receptions, 622 yards and two scores. Enter DeSean Jackson from Washington. He led the league in yards per reception in 2014 and 2016 and was top five the season in between. Evans is still great, the team has tight end depth, and now it boasts one of the elite deep threats in the sport in DeSean Jackson.
Top three NFC South misconceptions for fantasy
• Let’s start with the Falcons and their two-headed rushing attack of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Freeman is the star here, but Coleman isn’t half-bad and these guys can not only coexist but thrive at the same time. In fact, Coleman topped 20 PPR points in Weeks 3 and 5 last season, but Freeman didn’t suffer those weeks. He topped 20 PPR points as well! Coleman also topped the mark in Week 16 and Freeman just missed. In the three full games Coleman missed, from Weeks 8-10, Freeman didn’t explode statistically, but there’s nothing wrong with an average of 15 PPR points per game. Put simply, Coleman is one of the more desirable handcuff options in the sport, which most fantasy owners realize, but if you’ve got ’em both, don’t be scared to use ’em both the same weeks, too.
• Drew Brees is another future Hall of Famer and, despite turning 38 years old in January, has shown nary a sign of slowing down. In fact, he was fantasy’s No. 3 quarterback in 2016 with his most passing yards and touchdowns since 2013. The trading of wide receiver Brandin Cooks to the Patriots is not going to stand in the way of Brees ending up a top-six fantasy quarterback for the 12th consecutive season. How do we know? After all, bringing in Ted Ginn Jr. to ostensibly replace Cooks doesn’t exactly instill confidence, but Cooks had only two relevant seasons. Brees has been doing this forever. He has plenty of weapons and a terrible defense driving half the games to be shootouts. Plus, watch him make Ginn fantasy-relevant. Yep, I said it.
• Oh, but here’s one Saints misconception Coby Fleener owners found out yet again in 2016: It wasn’t the quarterback’s fault in Indianapolis and Fleener didn’t merely need a change of scenery. The tight end didn’t catch two-thirds of his targets, found the end zone as a receiver only three times for the second consecutive year, was a total non-factor in December and just isn’t what he was supposed to be, which is a fantasy starter.
Division report
Fantasy MVP: Half the top tier of wide receivers play in this division. Both Atlanta’s Julio Jones and Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans will be first-round picks, and the Saints’ Michael Thomas isn’t far behind. Let’s go with Evans.
Fantasy LVP: No shortage of reasonable options based on draft-day hype. Certainly Peterson is a candidate for those who think he’ll merely push Ingram aside and rush for 1,000 yards one more time. Jonathan Stewart likely gets pushed aside in Carolina as well, and who knows what happens with Tampa Bay’s running game and troubled Doug Martin. But Carolina wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin gets the nod, because fantasy owners think he’s all that and a bag of chips. Well, it appears he might have had a few too many chips this spring. Benjamin’s commitment to conditioning hasn’t merely been questioned, the team has made clear its concern. Surprisingly productive as a rookie, absent as a sophomore after wrecking his knee and overrated last season when he wasn’t productive after Week 2, those who rely on Benjamin as a WR3 will likely be disappointed.
Relevant option to lose starting role: Stewart and Benjamin in Carolina seem obvious choices, but let’s go with Martin in Tampa Bay. Twice he’s rushed for more than 1,400 yards in a season, with receptions and touchdowns and fantasy awesomeness, and the other three seasons have been maddening, as he failed to rush for 500 yards and stay healthy. Do you feel lucky? Charles Sims and Jacquizz Rodgers aren’t as talented, but if Martin can’t produce, the Bucs have options.
Top fantasy rookie: McCaffrey has the best opportunity by far, although his new teammate Curtis Samuel could also play a big role as a downfield threat for Newton, especially if Benjamin underachieves. Some will say Tampa Bay tight end O.J. Howard, but there’s nothing wrong with incumbent Cameron Brate -- no tight end had more touchdowns last season -- and rookies at this position seldom star right away.
Sophomore to watch: Really not many candidates for fantasy purposes in this division, so we’ll go with Michael Thomas as he cements himself as a top-10 wide receiver.
Summer depth chart watch: Ingram versus Peterson in New Orleans has to be compelling, but also Carolina wide receivers -- Samuel should matter -- and the Tampa Bay running backs.
Summer injury watch: Newton had surgery for a partially torn rotator cuff in March and, you know, that was apparently the injury that ruined his season. So it’s a big deal how he looks in August.
Potential summer ADP stock fluctuation: Love for McCaffrey is only going to grow, because everyone loves the rookies. They haven’t struggled at the NFL level yet. Peterson has struggled of late, but if he looks as great as his teammates contend, well, you know. There will be draft-day reaching. And we’re not seeing it yet, but if there’s any concern about Newton’s shoulder, he likely falls from the top-10 quarterbacks. Not saying he should, but there’s overreacting everywhere.
Next up: NFC West