Someone new to the fantasy football world could believe the only relevant team in the AFC East is the New England Patriots because of quarterback Tom Brady, last seen engineering a stunning Super Bowl comeback in February. But that’s not entirely true! There’s so much more from other teams, including a top running quarterback who is annually overlooked and underrated, the rare running back to rush for 200 or more yards three times in a season, and the Jets … well, that Josh McCown-to-Quincy Enunwa combination should be fantastic!
OK, so the Patriots win this division every year and there’s little reason to expect that to change in the upcoming season, but the point is even the Jets – yes, the Jets! – have a player or two fantasy owners should be intrigued by. The Dolphins actually made the playoffs last season, though they were quickly blown out by the Steelers. However, Miami expects to contend for a January berth again, the Bills boast new leadership and figure their 18-year stretch sans a playoff appearance could end soon, and the Jets … well, have some patience.
Anyway, let’s continue with our summer divisional series and check out the AFC East, where one team is really good, one team is really not and the other two squads should be interesting. The NFC East, NFC North, NFC South and NFC West have already been covered, so check ‘em out!
Top three AFC East changes for fantasy purposes
• The Patriots could have contended for another Super Bowl without trading for disgruntled New Orleans Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks, but it’s nice to see an organization that doesn’t rest on its laurels. Fantasy owners take note! Still, the rich get proverbially richer, as the exciting, fourth-year player coming off consecutive 1,000-yard receiving campaigns joins a potentially crowded crew with Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and others. Some will simply presume Cooks can’t be as statistically awesome in New England because he’s not the top option and Drew Brees isn’t his quarterback. Well, many disagree and here’s smart colleague KC Joyner explaining his reasons here.
• Meanwhile, the Bills played Week 17 of last season with an interim coach and sans benched quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Few would have guessed the Bills would end up recommitting to Taylor for 2017 and perhaps beyond, but it happened. Longtime NFL defensive coordinator Sean McDermott gets his first shot as a head coach, and Rick Dennison will run the offense after handling the same role for the Denver Broncos. We have to view this positively, folks. It remains problematic how this will statistically alter the fantasy landscape, but Taylor is better than most realize statistically, and it’s all due to his legs, which one would presume he’ll continue to be afforded the opportunity to show off. Taylor led all quarterbacks with 580 rushing yards and tied Dak Prescott with six rushing touchdowns. And the Bills still have LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins, too.
• As for the Jets, Todd Bowles is still the coach, but we might not be saying that next summer, because the current crew looks rather underwhelming and like it will be in the running for the first overall draft pick in 2018. Veteran Josh McCown is the presumed starting quarterback after the Ryan Fitzpatrick era ended even more poorly than reasonable pessimists could have imagined, and wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker have also been extracted from the roster. McCown should be running things until the organization feels Christian Hackenberg is ready – and that might not happen any time soon or ever – but the Jets still boast one intriguing fantasy option in the running back so many believe is still a backup: Bilal Powell. Well, that’s a misconception, of course, one of several in this division.
Top three AFC East misconceptions for fantasy
• Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi finished last season fourth in rushing and 11th in PPR scoring He is a yards-after-contact machine, but it sure seems worth pointing out how nearly half his production came in the three games in which he topped 200 rushing yards, two of them against a Bills defense that really struggled and got its defensive-minded head coach booted before New Year’s Day. As for Ajayi, nobody can take away the fact the Boise State product was great those three weeks, but it’s worth pointing out those games comprised nearly half his rushing yards and he delivered only three other top-20 fantasy weeks. In only one other week did he rush for more than 80 yards. He averaged fewer than two receptions per game. Ajayi continues to be ranked nicely, but perhaps the misconception is that it’s all a done deal. He wasn’t a consistent player, and he didn’t really carry fantasy teams to playoff berths at all. Frankly, the case can easily be made that the Jets' Powell is not only the greater value but will outscore him in PPR formats.
• Few have questioned how good Bills wide receiver Watkins can be. We’ve seen him thrive and make big play after big play, teasing fantasy owners with top-10 potential. The problem is foot injuries haven't permitted him to thrive enough. It’s time for fantasy owners to grip the reality: It’s going to be tough for Watkins to deliver WR2 value if he keeps needing surgeries and missing games, and there’s no indication either theme can be stopped. Watkins missed several games in 2015 and half of last year, and again his summer training has been curtailed by these woes. The current Bills regime, which had no role in drafting Watkins, sure seems ready to move on, as his fifth-year option was not picked up, so he appears likely to hit the free-agent market after the season. The fourth overall selection in the 2014 draft still might dominate over 16 healthy, impactful games, and he should be motivated to do so, but there’s so much risk that he won't live up to the draft-day price.
• And back to the Patriots: Brady turns 40 years old in August. Fantasy owners are conditioned to worry about age when it comes to their running backs turning 30, of course, but quarterbacks are different. And this quarterback is clearly different. Brady isn’t slowing down. Yes, he played in only 12 regular-season games last season, but the four he missed weren’t due to injury or age, but a suspension. And in the 12 games he played, he tossed 28 interceptions against two interceptions. The Patriots aren’t the normal Super Bowl team annually struggling through the following regular season. This team is better! Sure, someday Brady will be done. The misconception is that age matters with him.
Division report
Fantasy MVP: Buffalo’s McCoy comes off another satisfying season, his third as a top-five fantasy running back, and he was the lone AFC East flex-eligible option to finish among the top-20 scorers. Powell should be a better value, but McCoy gets the slight nod again.
Fantasy LVP: Gronkowski has scored 68 receiving touchdowns since the start of 2010, easily the most in the sport. And he looked very good in the half-season of games in 2016 before back surgery. He’s the top tight end in the sport. But there’s no way a top-20 pick should be invested on him. There’s way too much risk and, by the way, you don’t need the best tight end in the sport when there are so many top wide receivers available that early. It’s called "value-based drafting" and Gronkowski rarely fares well there in relation to a crew of what is generally more than 10 useful tight ends.
Relevant option to lose starting role: The case could be made that the AFC East quarterbacks not married to Gisele Bundchen are each at some risk, and sure, it could affect fantasy. Buffalo’s Taylor is good, but perhaps the new regime wants Cardale Jones to play. Ryan Tannehill missed the final month of last season's regular season games with a knee injury but again didn’t look like the guy from 2015 that finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. And we should all ignore the New York passing game.
As for players who might actually find their way onto fantasy teams, certainly new Patriots running back Mike Gillislee could play the role of departed LeGarrette Blount and score a million touchdowns, but Bill Belichick has obvious depth in case it starts slowly. New Dolphins tight end Julius Thomas has reached 500 receiving yards once in his career. Not good. And if Matt Forte somehow wins the starting job, he’ll lose it to Powell.
Top fantasy rookie: Speedy wide receivers Zay Jones of the Bills and ArDarius Stewart and Chad Hansen of the Jets were the only rookies to land in the top-50 of colleague Mike Clay’s dynasty rankings, which says a lot. The Patriots and Dolphins aren’t young, and the Bills and Jets have their veteran running backs. Jones has the better chance to thrive; the East Carolina product set an FBS mark with 158 receptions last season (in 12 games) and Watkins is hardly a weekly guarantee.
Sophomore to watch: Also not a whole lot to watch here among the second-year set for fantasy purposes in this division, but if you’re of the mind that Miami’s Ajayi is a bit overrated – or really, all or nothing statistically, which he was last season – then Kenyan Drake could matter. He did average 5.4 yards per carry, though he earned more than one carry in a mere seven games. Wide receiver Leonte Carroo out of Rutgers caught only three passes as a rookie, and the team is invested in Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills, but he’s talented.
Summer depth chart watch: It’s all about the Patriots' running backs here. Gillislee isn’t as big as Blount, and few are, but the Patriots have several running backs to catch the passes. Gillislee figures to get most of the rushing attempts and touchdowns, but who knows? Could be Dion Lewis too. Or Rex Burkhead. And James White should have been the Super Bowl MVP, not that it matters. Lot of proverbial mouths to feed here.
Summer injury watch: Watkins, Watkins and more Watkins. He says the latest foot surgery won’t prevent him from being ready for Week 1, but what’s he going to say? And Forte’s knee bothered him much of 2016 and was surgically repaired, but he’s 31. Do knees get stronger and more reliable once one hits his 30s?
Potential summer ADP stock fluctuation: There’s reason to believe Cooks will end up a top-10 wide receiver in some drafts and miss the top-20 at the position in others. It’s an interesting argument. And there’s also reason to believe either Jets running back could go ahead of the other – and outside the top-20 at the position – in your draft. See what the coaches and injury reports say!
Next up: AFC North