Only two New England Patriots wide receivers have posted 300 or more fantasy points in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues in the past 10 seasons: Randy Moss in 2007 (385.3) and Wes Welker in 2011 (335.9). This historical lack of elite production is a main factor in fantasy owners tending to view New England's No. 1 wide receivers with a bit of apprehension.
This trepidation is part of the reason that Brandin Cooks is currently seen as a WR2 in average draft position (ADP) in ESPN draft rooms despite his finishing 10th in wide receiver fantasy points (246.3) last season.
While it's understandable to consider the Patriots' history of spreading the ball around as a hindrance to any of their pass-catchers, there are actually many reasons to think Cooks will be
Cooks gets a ton of mileage out of his vertical passes
Cooks tied for 15th among wide receivers in vertical targets last year (53 aerials that were thrown 11 or more yards downfield), yet he still finished fifth among wide receivers in vertical fantasy points (134.7).
Cooks fared this well because he was one of the best wide receivers in fantasy production on a per-vertical-target basis. Here is the list of the top 10 wide receivers in terms of fantasy points per vertical target from last season, with a minimum of 100 vertical fantasy points needed to qualify for the list:
It is notable that Cooks and Antonio Brown were the only two players with 50 or more vertical targets to post at least 2.5 fantasy points per target. That shows Cooks can produce at this rate even on a high-target volume and thus is in rare company in this category.
New England will redistribute its vertical passes to Cooks
Since the target volume issue is the major question mark for any New England wide receiver, the next question for Cooks is how many vertical targets can he tally in the Patriots' offense?
Let's start by looking at how New England's vertical targets were distributed last year. The top six Patriots in vertical targets were Julian Edelman (44), Chris Hogan (27), Rob Gronkowski (20), Malcolm Mitchell (19), Martellus Bennett (16) and Danny Amendola (10). The rest of the team had 13 vertical targets, with no other player registering more than five vertical targets.
Edelman is a short-pass-catching specialist whose 38.6 percent vertical-reception rate was the lowest among the aforementioned group. That dire percentage led New England to post only 149 vertical attempts, a total that ranked 24th in the league. That mark was the team's lowest vertical-pass total since 2010 and a significant drop-off from the 176.4 vertical pass attempts per season the team averaged from 2011 to '15.
The Patriots will redirect most of Edelman's and Amendola's vertical targets to Cooks. That should result in a minimum of 40-50 vertical targets for Cooks, and if New England increases its vertical target volume to previous levels, most of those additional passes will also go to Cooks. Add them up and it could easily result in 60-70 vertical targets for Cooks, a pace that could make him a strong contender to lead all wide receivers in vertical fantasy points this season.
Tom Brady has lost none of his vertical passing skills
Matt Ryan won the NFL MVP last year in large part due to his success on downfield passes, but Brady actually had a higher yards-per-attempt (YPA) mark on vertical throws (14.8 for Brady, 14.7 for Ryan).
That Brady was able to lead the league in this category despite sending 43 of his 119 vertical attempts to Edelman and Amendola is simply phenomenal. It shows that Brady hasn't lost anything on his long-pass fastball, a trait that gives Cooks a ton of fantasy upside potential on his already elite vertical-production ceiling.
Short-pass upside
Cooks has a reputation for being a superb receiver on short passes (defined as attempts thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield), but his metrics actually don't fully back up that assessment. Last year, Cooks placed 76th among wide receivers in yards after catch (3.0) and 65th in yards per reception on short passes (7.4).
Part of the problem is the Saints weren't very adept at maximizing production on short passes last season. New Orleans ranked 25th in yards per completion (7.8) and tied for 26th in yards after catch per completion (4.8) on short passes.
The Patriots were much better in this area last season, as they tied for eighth in yards per completion (8.4) and were third in yards after catch per completion (6.2) on short throws.
ESPN Insider Matt Bowen illustrated how New England can use its playcalling expertise to increase Cooks' production on short passes. This should lead to an improvement on Cooks' No. 27 rank in short-pass fantasy points (108.6) last season.
Much more bang for the buck
Cooks' fantasy value stands out even more clearly when he is compared with similarly price wide receivers.
Alshon Jeffery (No. 11 in ADP), DeAndre Hopkins (No. 12) and Demaryius Thomas (No. 14) are on teams that have significant quarterback question marks in terms of talent and/or experience.
Doug Baldwin (No. 15 in ADP) is on a Seahawks offense that has made it clear it is returning to a run-heavy approach that caps any of their receivers' fantasy values.
Jarvis Landry (No. 16 in ADP) ranked sixth in short-pass fantasy points last year (161.1) but placed 48th in vertical fantasy points (68.5). He simply doesn't have the downfield upside that Cooks does.
Bottom line
Here is an alphabetical list of wide receivers who have posted 240 or more fantasy points in each of the past two campaigns: Baldwin, Beckham, Brown, Cooks, Larry Fitzgerald and Julio Jones. This elite consistency shows that the 240-point level should be considered Cooks' fantasy production floor.
That floor places Cooks at the borderline between WR1 and WR2 in a 10-team league. Add in his multiple upside factors and it is clear Cooks should be considered a bona fide WR1. He would likely recoup his value if taken in the first two rounds of a draft, but if Cooks falls to the third or fourth round, he could end up as the best value pick in that draft room.