It might be tough to believe today, but at this time a year ago the AFC South boasted two of the top-six wide receivers in ESPN average live drafts, and few thought the notion was ridiculous. Houston Texans star DeAndre Hopkins was coming off a fantastic 2015 season with 111 receptions for 1,521 yards and 11 touchdowns, and while there were concerns about incoming quarterback Brock Osweiler, well, how bad could he be? As for the Jacksonville Jaguars, quarterback Blake Bortles and wide receiver Allen Robinson were breakout stars in their second NFL seasons, and the future looked bright.
A year later, after neither Hopkins nor Robinson came remotely close to providing value (each finished outside the top-20 wide receiver scorers), fantasy owners must decide which of the past two seasons accurately reflects the future, and it’s not an easy question to answer. After all, while most believe Hopkins and Robinson remain stellar athletes and capable of big things, the Texans still lack a sure thing at quarterback and Bortles remains somewhat of an enigma, especially when attempting to find Robinson downfield. While the latter two mystifyingly couldn’t connect in 2016, Bortles still squeaked into the top-10 scorers at quarterback last season.
The plight of these star wide receivers (and many others) will be analyzed as we continue our summer divisional series with the intriguing AFC South. The NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, NFC West, AFC East and AFC North have already been covered, so check ‘em out!
Top three AFC South changes for fantasy purposes
• Two teams in this division were among the top 10 in rushing yards in 2016; two ranked in the bottom 10. As a result, the Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts made draft-day investments to improve, but only one of these offensive units figures to see an immediate lineup change. The Jaguars spent the fourth overall selection on LSU star Leonard Fournette. The Colts spent a fourth-rounder on South Florida’s Marlon Mack. Fournette goes to a team with a middling offensive line but figures to rack up a ton of volume, giving him RB1 potential. Mack might have to wait a bit for the active rushing leader to step aside, but fantasy owners will flock to him anyway.
• The Tennessee Titans clearly needed wide receiver upgrades, as Rishard Matthews -- a fine player, but hardly a star -- was the lone option at the position to reach 50 catches or 600 receiving yards. As a result, Western Michigan’s Corey Davis was secured with the No. 5 overall pick and Western Kentucky’s Taywan Taylor came in Round 3. When former Bronco and Jet Eric Decker suddenly and surprisingly became available in June, the Titans pounced and managed to land him. Marcus Mariota already has a solid running game to work with, and now he’s got speed on the outside as well as a proven red zone target in Decker.
• As for the quarterback who gets to make Hopkins a star again, well, that’s still problematic. Osweiler’s contract was dumped on the Browns, leaving unproven veteran Tom Savage and Clemson rookie Deshaun Watson to battle for supremacy. While neither figures to be fantasy-relevant initially, it’s worth noting that it’s still a tad rare for a stud wide receiver to be that unproductive because of quarterback play. Yes, Osweiler was bad and the current options are unlikely to be quite that bad, but still, it’d be nice if we knew Hopkins was in -- shall we say -- good hands.
Top three AFC South misconceptions for fantasy
• Let’s get back to the Colts running game, because most fantasy owners probably don’t want any part of grizzled veteran Frank Gore. After all, he’s 34, which is like a million years old in the NFL! Running backs can’t be effective at 34! Well, Gore wasn’t a star in 2016, but only 11 running backs rushed for more yards. Volume certainly played a role, as Gore was again healthy -- he last missed a game in 2010 -- but he failed to average 4 yards per tote for the second consecutive season. His age isn’t a misconception, but expecting him to suddenly fall off and either lose the starting role or be truly ineffective kind of is. Someday it will happen, and someday certainly might be 2017, but don’t bet on it.
• Mariota would have likely finished as a top-10 fantasy scorer among quarterbacks had he played in Week 17, but there’s a perception that he needs to use his legs more in order to reach his statistical potential. Sure, it wouldn’t be such a bad thing for fantasy purposes if Mariota ran a bit more. He has averaged 300 rushing yards and two touchdowns in each of his past two seasons, teasing Titans fans and fantasy owners alike with the promise of more. For perspective, Bortles, who doesn’t have the running pedigree at all, has more rushing yards and scores the past two seasons. However, Mariota did just fine throwing the ball, and now he has more weapons. In fact, until his December collapse, he was on his way to finishing as fantasy’s No. 6 QB, with four games of three or more touchdown passes. He didn’t fall short because the team wants him to remain in the pocket more.
• Lamar Miller wanted out of Miami because he always had to share backfield touches, and there were times when he seemed badly underutilized. The Texans promised him the football and Miller got it, totaling 299 touches in 14 games before an ankle injury cost him the final two weeks. Still, Miller’s production wasn’t so great. Blaming the QB play makes sense, but Miller averaged only 4 yards per carry and a career-low 6.1 yards on his receptions. The franchise used a third-round pick on the larger D’Onta Foreman, who can run over defenders and is more of a physical presence than Miller, who wore down last season. Those selecting Miller among the top-10 running backs because he’s eminently safe and guaranteed major touches might be disappointed. Foreman could make an impact right away, assuming he can stay out of trouble off the field. However, he's already off to a bad start in that regard.
Division report
Fantasy MVP: Titans running back DeMarco Murray and Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton are likely second-round choices in fantasy drafts and figure to be reliable options again. Flip a coin. Neither offer much value in that range, however, so if Hopkins or Robinson could return to top-10 status, they’d get the nod. Fournette should get ample opportunity to be a fantasy MVP, too. It’s a wide-open division!
Fantasy LVP: Of course, each of those wide receivers could struggle again as well. Meanwhile, Gore outscored Miller for fantasy points in 2016, despite a huge disparity in investment. Miller missed a few games, but the point is, one of these fellows will again be an early pick, and the other will not. Miller is risky. Rishard Matthews is also unlikely to repeat his performance, so don’t expect him to attain even regular flex status again.
Relevant option to lose starting role: Some will say Murray, because Alabama’s Derrick Henry remains a talent but underachieved as a rookie; Murray, meanwhile, sure looked legit. Miller and Gore could be pushed aside, and each club has a wide receiver spot potentially up for grabs. Will Fuller V, Donte Moncrief, Allen Hurns and Matthews could all potentially move down the depth chart.
Top fantasy rookie: Tough to bet against Fournette, though fellow running backs Mack and Foreman shouldn’t be overlooked in the middle rounds.
Sophomore to watch: Fuller versus Braxton Miller -- each entering Year 2 -- should be interesting, though it would be more interesting for fantasy owners if we knew Savage whether could be competent. It has been tough for any Houston second wide receiver to be relevant in the Hopkins era. And if Murray struggles -- it happened in 2015 -- Henry could thrive. He’s an intriguing handcuff, but one must be patient.
Summer depth chart watch: Houston’s quarterback and No. 2 receiver slots top the list, while the rookie running backs not named Fournette could make things interesting as well. As for tight end, this division has a top-10 guy (Delanie Walker), another who could get there (underrated Jack Doyle in Indy) and a battle that could matter in Jacksonville, as former Raider Mychal Rivera is younger and better than Marcedes Lewis.
Summer injury watch: The very valuable right shoulder of Andrew Luck required January surgery, though few seem concerned about his being ready for the regular season. Mariota’s broken fibula is fine now, and he participated in the team’s June OTAs.
Potential summer ADP stock fluctuation: If Savage gets raved about in camp, Hopkins will see his stock rise. And all rookies outpace ADP because fantasy owners get tired of choosing unexciting veterans like Gore. Watch Fournette eventually enter the top-10 running backs and Mack and Foreman become popular sleepers.
Next up: AFC West