The Cincinnati Bengals seem to be at somewhat of a crossroads, as they’re coming off the worst season in the Andy Dalton era. The Bengals made the playoffs in each of Dalton’s first five NFL seasons, though each and every appearance ended pretty quickly with a wild-card round loss. Still, the Bengals won more than they lost for five seasons. Dalton was certainly competent, A.J. Green was certainly great, and the defense was certainly good enough to get the team into January.
Last season’s Bengals won only six games, and whether one chooses to blame Dalton’s inconsistency, Green’s injury, the struggling running game, the undisciplined defense or longtime coach Marvin Lewis, the fact is the organization isn’t at all like the other squads in the AFC North. Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens have won Super Bowls with their current quarterbacks. The Cleveland Browns won one game last season and don’t have much at quarterback. The Bengals are lurking somewhere in between, and there could be changes looming. Is this a playoff team, or will it struggle again in 2017?
As we continue our summer divisional series by looking at the AFC North, the intriguing Bengals -- along with the Steelers, Ravens and Browns -- merit further examination for fantasy purposes. The NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, NFC West, and AFC East have already been covered, so check ‘em out!
Top three AFC North changes for fantasy purposes
• Last season’s Bengals scored 325 points, the club’s lowest total since Dalton’s rookie campaign. Seeking improvement, Cincinnati procured young, talented reinforcements for its offense on draft day. Speedy wide receiver John Ross came with the No. 9 overall pick, and controversial running back Joe Mixon was selected in the second round. There’s no denying these players bring skill sets that can aid both Cincinnati and fantasy owners, and Dalton perhaps more than anyone. Off-field baggage aside, Mixon produced big numbers at Oklahoma. Ross ran a ridiculous 4.22 in the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, the fastest mark on record. Of course, the Bengals have other running backs and wide receivers -- not to mention a goal-line tight end -- at their disposal, so talent might not be enough.
• Steelers wide receiver Martavis Bryant really isn’t someone the organization and fantasy owners can count on, but at least he’s back -- for now. Bryant missed all of the 2016 season serving a substance-abuse suspension, along with 11 other games in his first two NFL seasons. He’s tall, fast and can make a whole lot of big plays, but even with his reinstatement by the league, fantasy owners should not assume he’s more than a flex option. The Steelers already have arguably the league’s top running back -- who catches a ton of passes -- and the game's top wide receiver. It was always going to be tough for anyone else to be a regular fantasy contributor at wide receiver alongside Antonio Brown. Bryant scored 15 touchdowns (one rushing) his first 21 NFL games, a staggering (and unsustainable) rate. He did so by hauling in a mere 76 receptions. Now he’s battling not only Brown, but also Eli Rogers, Sammie Coates and draft pick Juju Smith-Schuster for targets. Given his track record, he's running out of chances to avoid being an outsider like former Browns star -- we’ll always cherish his 2013 -- Josh Gordon.
• The Ravens have dealt with a mess at running back the past two seasons: No Ravens player tallied as many as 800 yards rushing in 2015 or 2016. There’s really little reason to believe that will change in 2017, but Danny Woodhead was brought in so at least we know there will be a running back catching many passes. Well, probably. Woodhead is one of the top receivers out of the backfield, hauling in 76 passes in 2013 and 80 in 2015. In 2014 and 2016, he suffered season-ending injuries in September. The Ravens will likely keep a committee at running back, with Woodhead, Terrance West, Kenneth Dixon (after he serves a four-game suspension) and perhaps others sharing carries. For those in PPR formats, though, Woodhead instantly becomes a potential RB2.
Top three AFC North misconceptions for fantasy
• The Browns were bad in 2016. They won one game. One stinkin’ game. The Browns certainly didn’t score many points, but they weren’t close to the worst rushing team in the league, so don’t ignore Isaiah Crowell. In fact, only the Bills averaged more than Cleveland’s 4.9 yards per carry. The problem was that the Browns finished last in the league in rushing attempts alongside the Lions. Doesn’t make much sense, eh? Expect the new Browns, in Hue Jackson’s second season, to be a bit more balanced and hopefully perform better defensively. Say what you will about the Browns' financial investments this offseason, but they upgraded the offensive line -- and the defensive line with No. 1 pick Myles Garrett -- and should give the underrated Crowell an opportunity to soar past 1,000 rushing yards.
• The Browns traded for former Texans/Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler, but don’t expect him to play. He was pretty awful as the starter in Houston, and the trade was an obvious salary dump. However, even though the Browns have had a different leading passer in each of the past six seasons (Cody Kessler, Josh McCown, Brian Hoyer, Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden, Colt McCoy) and it’s certainly possible they’ll make it seven this year, don’t presume Kessler can’t do the job. A third-round pick in 2016, Kessler should be the starter. Despite losing all eight of his starts last season, he did complete 65 percent of his passes and had six touchdown passes to two interceptions. He wasn’t Osweiler. Not that I’d draft Kessler in any standard fantasy league, but he’s got an improved offensive line, a decent running back or two, Kenny Britt caught 1,000 yards through the air as a Ram last year and … well, think positively.
• New Ravens wide receiver Jeremy Maclin was brought in after the Chiefs dumped him, and while he’s likely to start and be relevant in fantasy, it’s a bit presumptive to expect him to put up massive stats in this offense. Maclin has twice topped 1,000 receiving yards in his career and twice reached double-digit touchdowns, but Joe Flacco has one 4,000-yard passing season. That was last year, but the Ravens surely don’t want him throwing as much in 2017. When Flacco does, he’ll have Woodhead out of the backfield and Mike Wallace deep, while Breshad Perriman will also be involved. If Wallace goes five rounds later than Maclin, he’s a better value. Take the under on Maclin getting back to 1,000 yards and eight scores.
Division report
Fantasy MVP: Le’Veon Bell missed four games last season and still led the division in fantasy points. If you want a value pick, go with Crowell. He has definite potential for RB1 status, and you can get him after the first several rounds.
Fantasy LVP: Two Bengals jump to mind. Anyone selecting running back Jeremy Hill as a flex option will likely be disappointed. Mixon’s taking that job right away. And tight end Tyler Eifert is not a top-five option at the position. For one thing, he can’t stay healthy. For another, it’s all touchdowns, which are nice, but he doesn’t catch many passes and gets downgraded in PPR formats.
Relevant option to lose starting role: Baltimore’s West for sure, though he’s not really all that fantasy-relevant. Unlike West, Cincinnati’s Hill isn’t likely to get to September with the starting job.
Top fantasy rookie: If Hill could rush for 1,124 yards and score nine touchdowns as a rookie in 2014, Mixon should be able to top that with the same opportunity. Cleveland tight end David Njoku is interesting, but rookies at this position seldom star, and the Browns' passing game has a long way to go. The Bell handcuff in Pittsburgh is Pitt rookie James Conner, but his opportunities in 2017 are predicated on another Bell injury. Then again, Bell has played four NFL seasons, and has appeared in more than 13 games just once.
Sophomore to watch: I predict Kessler will be among the top three AFC North quarterbacks in fantasy. Perhaps that’s not saying much, but it means he’ll outscore either Dalton or Flacco. If Kessler progresses – and he really wasn’t so awful in 2016 – it will aid Corey Coleman, the team’s enticing first-round pick in 2016. Also, don’t be the least bit surprised when Baltimore’s Dixon becomes the most-added player leading into Week 5, the date he’ll be eligible to play.
Summer depth chart watch: Second receiver in Pittsburgh could be a battle, since Bryant is no lock. Second receiver in Cincinnati should also be a tough contest, since Brandon LaFell isn’t so good and Ross and last year’s second-round pick Tyler Boyd lurk. The Baltimore running back situation is also worth monitoring. I think Kessler keeps the Cleveland starting role at quarterback, but feel free to watch and root for Osweiler or Notre Dame rookie DeShone Kizer if you like.
Summer injury watch: Bengals running back Giovani Bernard might not be ready for September action, as he's recovering from an ACL tear. Tight end Eifert had December back surgery, and nobody should expect him to play 16 games.
Potential summer ADP stock fluctuation: Browns players won’t be terribly popular, but Crowell is better than most realize. He should rise. Mixon will surely rise in drafts, because everyone covets rookies. And Maclin versus Wallace might not seem a fair ADP fight today, since most presume the newcomer will get the nod, but it likely gets closer as the summer goes on.
Next up: AFC South