Can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the NBA MVP in 2023-24?
SGA currently has the eighth-shortest MVP odds at +1800, putting him on the fringe of contention behind the usual suspects of Nikola Jokic (+400), Luka Doncic (+400), Jayson Tatum (+650), Giannis Antetokounmpo (+800), Joel Embiid (+1000), Stephen Curry (+1100), competing with another up-and-comer in Devin Booker (+1500).
He burst onto the biggest of stages last season when, at age 24, when he averaged 31.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG and 4.8 APG while leading a Thunder team universally expected to be a lottery team. Yes, they lost in the play-in tournament, but Oklahoma City was also missing the No. 2 overall pick that year, Chet Holmgren (foot), and started rookies Jalen Williams and Jaylin Williams. Gilgeous-Alexander's Herculean efforts earned him an All-NBA First Team nod and he finished fifth in the MVP voting.
One year later, moving further into his prime seasons on an up-and-coming Thunder team that now has expectations, can he take that next leap and actually win the award?
Let's explore.
What history says
The last five NBA MVPs have all been 7-footers that dominated from the frontcourt, but the four winners before that were all guards -- James Harden in 2018, Russell Westbrook in 2017, Stephen Curry in both 2016 and 2015.
Let's also add Derrick Rose in 2011, so we can look at the last five guards to win MVP and use their accomplishments as a guide-post for what SGA would need to do to produce an MVP-worthy season.
We'll start with their box score production as measured by fantasy points (ESPN standard scoring scale).
On a per-game basis, Gilgeous-Alexander trailed Harden, Westbrook and Curry (2016), but outproduced Curry (2015) and Rose. In fact, Gilgeous-Alexander's 52.3 FP/G last season were almost exactly the same as the average per-game score of the previous five MVP guards (52.1 FP/G).
But SGA trails all on this list except Rose in total fantasy points, because he only played 68 games while the previous five guard MVPs averaged 78.6 games/season.
So, my first takeaway is that Gilgeous-Alexander's output needs to stay steady or slightly improve to remain at an MVP level, but the biggest need is for him to be healthy and present on the court more consistently to earn serious MVP consideration. This is a nontrivial task for a player that has missed 77 games over the past three seasons.
Next, let's move beyond traditional box score stats to get a more complete picture for guard MVP seasons.
What Real Plus Minus (RPM) says
SGA's presence on the court for the Thunder correlated with a similar improvement in his team's scoring margin to Harden, Westbrook and Rose, but his ranking in RPM with respect to the rest of the league was lower. Curry's impact as measured by RPM is off the charts, and SGA doesn't need to necessarily aspire to that level of impact to be MVP, but he likely needs to increase his impact to closer to top-10 or even top-5 to get into serious MVP contention.
In addition to personal impact, SGA would need better play from his teammates as well, because recent guard MVPs almost always come from teams with the top seed in their conference. The one exception was Westbrook, and he had a historic argument as the first player to average a triple-double since Oscar Robertson in 1962.
SGA doesn't play point guard like Westbrook or the rest of the guards on this list, so he's unlikely to hit that type of triple-double hallmark. Perhaps he could aspire to average the most points by an MVP since Michael Jordan, but that would require he top 35 PPG and it still might not have the same narrative impact as the triple-double achievement.
So, the safest pathway to MVP for Gilgeous-Alexander is to lead the Thunder to a top seed in the West.
The Thunder have won three of their first four games, a 75.0 win percentage, but it's much too early to read much into that. The ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) ranks the Thunder 17th of 30 teams, almost exactly league average.
While Holmgren's return from injury and the added maturity of the other young Thunder players gives them a solid chance to improve as the season goes along, it would be a longshot for them to actually compete for a top seed this season.
Final thoughts
As I complete this exercise, my sense is that Gilgeous-Alexander has MVP potential but might still be a season or two away from serious contention.
His individual per game production is close to where it needs to be, but to make the leap from candidate to MVP he needs to establish a baseline of every-game availability, slightly increase his impact on his team's ability to win and continue to build with his teammates until they can consistently win more than 75 percent of their games and earn a top seed.
Those would be a large series of asks and improvements for a single season, but I do think they are all realistic expectations for the future. While I might not see value in SGA to win the NBA MVP in 2024, I do have him as an early candidate to watch for the next three seasons.