The 2023 NHL draft lottery is scheduled for May 8. That's when we'll find out which team has earned the right, perhaps through self-immolation or blind luck, to draft Connor Bedard, the 17-year-old Regina Pats center who is expected to be no less than a franchise savior.
Which is, admittedly, a pretty high bar to clear for a rookie.
I had a conversation not too long ago with the venerable Bob McKenzie of TSN about that perception of Bedard's potential.
"I was just thinking to myself, and I didn't say it publicly, that we should just pump the brakes a little bit," he said, laughing. "I've learned that over the years with these 'phenoms.' It's in fairness to them. Our society and social media and everybody wants to make everyone the biggest thing ever and hype it. Let's just be sensible a little bit here. Recognize that there's something special in these kids, but don't set the bar unsustainably high."
What would help Bedard: If he didn't have to be a franchise's savior right off the hop, but a star player who bolsters what is already in place.
Since I watch copious amounts of home improvement shows on TV, let me put it this way: There's a difference between Bedard joining a fixer-upper, Bedard joining a gut renovation and Bedard walking into an empty lot where they haven't even poured the concrete yet.
Here's a look at which teams can contend the earliest with Bedard on their roster. Please note that we've taken the teams currently eligible to secure the first overall pick -- a team can jump only 10 spots by winning the first draft lottery, so only the top 11 teams are eligible.
Which teams are best positioned to make the most out of Connor Bedard in the shortest amount of time?
1. Detroit Red Wings
Chances of landing Bedard: 5%
When Steve Yzerman arrived with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2010, he discovered a foundation that had added two sturdy pillars over the prior two seasons: Drafting Steven Stamkos first overall in 2008 and Victor Hedman second overall in 2009.
That's not to diminish the work that Yzerman did in building some dynastic teams before returning to Detroit -- hitting on Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli is an impressive game of prospect "Battleship." It's just to say he had a heck of a head start, especially in comparison to what he was handed with the Red Wings.
The major flaw in "The Yzerplan" has been that lack of an elite, foundational center around whom to build. Dylan Larkin is great. We love Dylan Larkin. But he's 26 years old and not, at last check, in the class of Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Leon Draisaitl or Jack Hughes.
All of those players were taken within the top three picks in the draft, which has been Detroit's problem during the rebuild: The highest they picked was fourth overall in 2020, when they acquired Lucas Raymond. Their lottery luck was so rotten, their losing seasons so squandered, that the current draft lottery rules were established in response to it.
(I was going to say this was the most significant concession the NHL ever made to the Ilitch family, but then I remembered that they literally realigned the league so Red Wings road games could start earlier.)
The current Red Wings are essentially a solar system in search of a sun. Larkin is legit. Mo Seider and Lucas Raymond have bright futures despite some sophomore year struggles. Simon Edvinsson, Marco Kasper and Sebastian Cossa are the next wave. There's a good veteran supporting cast, especially goalie Ville Husso.
If they land Bedard and he follows the same growth pattern as McDavid and Matthews, then 2024-25 is the season it all comes together. Even after Seider's next contract, Yzerman will have an enormous amount of cap space in Summer 2024 to shape the roster around Bedard. The Wings' young players will have matured, too.
The seeds are all planted in Detroit. Bedard would be their Miracle-Gro.
2. Washington Capitals
Chances of landing Bedard: 6%
I pestered an NHL executive about this thought experiment, and they made an interesting point. The Capitals have some of the worst odds for the first overall pick because they were far closer to playoff qualification than some of these other teams. So logic would dictate that if you add a phenom center to a pretty good team, it's possible that team could be contending in short order.
The Capitals were the very definition of middling this season. They were 15th in expected goals for and against at 5-on-5, for example. Injuries were an enormous factor this season, with players like Tom Wilson, John Carlson and Nicklas Backstrom all missing well over half the campaign. But in some cases, when you decide to keep the band together you're occasionally going to blow a fuse in some of the amps.
It's difficult to predict the Bedard Effect on the Capitals because it's difficult to predict what the Capitals will look like next season. They have 17 players under contract and just over $7 million in cap space. There's been an uptick in speculation about the future of Evgeny Kuznetsov in Washington, given his $7.8 million average annual value contract. They want to get younger but want to stay competitive.
Capitals owner Ted Leonsis told me that the team made a deal with Alex Ovechkin: Re-sign here and stay motivated to win, and they'll "keep the team competitive [and] a playoff team." I'll take him at his word, which is one reason the Capitals are this high: They see maintaining a contender as the most sure-fire way to get Ovechkin to pass Wayne Gretzky in career goals.
Of course, having Connor Bedard dishing him the puck would only expedite that process.
3. Vancouver Canucks
Chances of landing Bedard: 3%
The building blocks of a championship contender in the NHL are fairly simple to identify but much more difficult to cultivate.
The Canucks actually have a few of them: goaltender Thatcher Demko, defenseman Quinn Hughes, center Elias Pettersson. They lack that other defenseman who can successfully anchor a second pairing and that other center to solidify the top six. Magician that he is, Bedard can't turn Tyler Myers or Oliver Ekman-Larsson into that defenseman, but he can absolutely be that center.
I've been encouraged with the way this group has played under Rick Tocchet. They're eighth in expected goals against since Feb. 1, and they're 16-9-3 since he was hired on Jan. 23. I'm less encouraged by the overall roster, which is littered with toxic contracts and too many passengers. I'm even less encouraged by all of the apparent dysfunction behind the scenes.
Drafting the Prince of North Vancouver would create immaculate vibes, but he's not a cure-all for the franchise's ills. The Canucks have a solid foundation, but have to get their house in order.
4. Columbus Blue Jackets
Chances of landing Bedard: 13.5%
I don't want to assign a level of genius to Johnny Gaudreau, but is it possible that he's been playing 4D chess this entire time, signing his monster free-agent contract last summer with the knowledge that he'd likely have Connor Bedard as his center by 2023-24?
Because if so ... well played, Johnny Hockey.
Hey, @wyshynski apparently Caps fans love a good #jerseyfoul pic.twitter.com/46Ym0449WE
— Evan Bleiweiss (@EPBleiweiss) March 30, 2023
Bedard would join a Columbus team with a really bright future and, potentially, a strong present. Obviously, they have Gaudreau and Patrik Laine through 2025-26, both capable of notching 40 goals on Bedard's wing. They have prospects like Kent Johnson and Kirill Marchenko already making an NHL impact. David Jiricek could be a blue-line playmaker if he puts it all together. Oh yeah: There's also this pretty decent defenseman named Zach Werenski that'll be back and healthy next season.
(Alas, Bedard would arrive a few months too late to have experienced the Jonathan Quick era.)
Some questions in goal -- OK, a lot of questions in goal -- and depth concerns prevent the CBJ from being higher than this. But they might have to add a second cannon if they land Bedard and put him next to Gaudreau.
5. Anaheim Ducks
Chances of landing Bedard: 18.5%
The Ducks' placement here is a tribute to their impressive collection of young stars and a leap of faith that GM Pat Verbeek can nimbly renovate parts of this roster quickly should they land Bedard.
Rookie Mason McTavish is a force in the middle. Having him slotted behind Bedard for the next decade is reminiscent of the Jack Hughes-Nico Hischier duo in New Jersey. Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale are the first wave of blue-chippers; they have a slew of young defensemen (Pavel Mintyukov, Olen Zellweger) and center Nathan Gaucher in the next wave. They have Lukas Dostal and Calle Clang lined up for the future in goal, but they also have John Gibson signed through 2026-27, for better or worse.
There's a lot here to love, but there also might be a significant gap between Bedard's arrival and the Ducks finding out how all of the prospects actualize. That's where Verbeek comes in. Anaheim needs some heavy renovation on defense next season. They'll need to populate their forward depth behind the talented top six. But Bedard would certainly boost what's already looking like a strong foundation of young stars.
From a selfish standpoint, it would be absolutely awesome to have a Bedard-led Ducks resurgence reignite a proper rivalry against the Kings, who are also primed to contend for the foreseeable future.
6. St. Louis Blues
Chances of landing Bedard: 3.5%
In the hockey multiverse, there's definitely one reality in which the Blues land Bedard and immediately boomerang back to Stanley Cup contender status. You could do a lot worse than Bedard, Robert Thomas and Brayden Schenn up the gut, with Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich and Brandon Saad on the wings. Heck, even Kasperi Kapanen and Jakub Vrana look like they've found a second act in St. Louis after the trade deadline. Provided the defense and goaltending plays to expectations, they'd have something.
But there's another reality in that multiverse -- our reality, actually -- in which Bedard joins a team with significant questions on the back end. Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, Nick Leddy and Jordan Binnington were all handed no-trade clauses by GM Doug Armstrong -- Marco Scandella has a partial NTC -- and are all signed beyond this season. The Blues were absolutely porous defensively in 2022-23. Changes have to be made. Armstrong has the reputation for being aggressive in reshaping his roster and has some draft capital, too.
On paper, there are some things to like here. But there's a reason this team's time as a playoff contender in the West lasted about as long as a tantrum by their starting goalie.
7. Philadelphia Flyers
Chances of landing Bedard: 6.5%
Let's push the on-ice component to the side for a moment. Of all the teams listed here, I think the NHL benefits the most from having Connor Bedard on the Philadelphia Flyers.
One of the reasons Sidney Crosby became a transcendent star in the NHL is because he played for the Pittsburgh Penguins, a franchise that hockey fans inherently care about. That's especially true for the Penguins' many rivals in the Eastern Conference. Crosby plays the Flyers? That's money. Crosby plays the Rangers? That's money, too. The secret sauce in the Crosby vs. Ovechkin rivalry wasn't that they debuted in the same season, or the deep-rooted Canada vs. Russia dynamic. It's that they entered a decades-old feud between rival franchises within a reasonable proximity of each other.
Putting Bedard on the Flyers would have the same impact. We already saw a version of this with Eric Lindros in the 1990s, although many fans were already predisposed to jeer him because of his refusal to play for the team that drafted him. Bedard has a much cleaner slate, but the moment he puts on the orange and black is when he becomes a much-needed lightning rod for opposing fans.
The other part of Bedard on the Flyers that I love is the drought. This is a team in a city that hasn't won a championship since 1975. That's three "Star Wars" trilogies and "The Mandalorian" since Philly's last Cup parade. So you have that extra bit of Messianic potential in Bedard, too. Is he the one to break the "curse" or whatever?
All that said, they remain a country mile away from contention, with interim-but-basically-hired GM Danny Briere tasked with getting younger and better. Bedard expedites that process.
Let's face it: This would be worth it just to see the reaction when John Tortorella benches him for defensive lapses. Notice I didn't write "if."
8. San Jose Sharks
Chances of landing Bedard: 9.5%
The year is 2026. Electric cars outnumber gas ones in the Bay Area. The Oakland A's now play in Las Vegas. And the San Jose Sharks have six players on their current roster who account for close to $41 million of their payroll in 2026-27.
The Sharks will have some exceptional veteran talent with whom they can surround Bedard, what with Tomas Hertl creating space in the attacking zone and Erik Karlsson -- assuming he's still there next season -- setting him up from everywhere on the ice. But to secure Bedard, the Sharks created a roster that wasn't set up to win this season, and bid farewell to players like Timo Meier.
They have the façade of a talented veteran roster with a gut renovation happening inside.
That said, Bedard on San Jose would make the franchise relevant for the first time since 2019. It would be great to see the Shark Tank filled again.
9. Montreal Canadiens
Chances of landing Bedard: 8.5%
It's not exactly breaking news that I don't want Connor Bedard on a Canadian team. They already have McDavid, Draisaitl, Matthews, Marner, Pettersson, Quinn Hughes and Brady Tkachuk north of the border.
Share the wealth, will ya? I thought you were supposed to be the polite ones ...
But if Bedard is going to go anywhere in Canada, Montreal is the obvious choice. While the Canadiens did have their fluky pandemic season run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2021, they've otherwise not seriously challenged for the championship since 2014. The Habs have been smart (hello, Kirby Dach trade). They have great young players on the roster now -- Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky when he's healthy and finds his game. They have some really strong prospects arriving on the scene (Lane Hutson, Sean Farrell). Bedard could be like an injection of nitro into what's been a methodical rebuild, but I'd expect Montreal to stick with its plan.
If nothing else, the thought of Connor Bedard and Auston Matthews as the standard-bearers of the Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs rivalry ... would they ever schedule anything else for Hockey Night in Canada?
10. Chicago Blackhawks
Chances of landing Bedard: 11.5%
Here's the thing: I understand how important Connor Bedard playing in Chicago would be from a financial and marketing perspective.
There is absolutely no doubt that the NHL's transformation into a multi-billion dollar business in the last 17 years was helped immensely by the Blackhawks going from a cloistered, moribund franchise to dynastic winner that became as synonymous with outdoor hockey games as visible breath. Restoring the NHL's Chicago franchise to greatness would be in the league's best strategic interests. Having Connor Bedard pick up the baton that Patrick Kane left in his locker before heading to New York would be an undeniable spark to ignite this franchise's brighter days.
Now, all that being said: Naaaaaaah. We're good on Chicago for at least another decade, I think. You know why. We all know why.
(Now, if they do land Bedard, they have a deep prospect pool that'll grow even deeper after this year's draft. But they're at least three years away from contending again, given how much they've gutted the roster. Hope you're patient, Seth Jones!)
11. Arizona Coyotes
Chances of landing Bedard: 7.5%
The bottom two teams on this list are pretty much broken-neck-and-broken-neck for the franchises that are worst positioned to contend with Bedard. The Coyotes at the very least have Logan Cooley on the way, and he might turn out to be the jewel of the 2022 draft. Forwards Conor Geekie and Dylan Guenther are promising.
But we have to put the Coyotes last here because of their arena situation. As you know, there's a special election in May to determine the fate of their Tempe arena project. It's a contentious issue -- Phoenix just filed a lawsuit to halt the arena district. If the vote fails ... I don't think anyone knows what's next. If the vote passes ... well, the Coyotes are still playing in a 5,000-seat college hockey arena for at least the next three seasons as the Tempe building is constructed.
How much are they investing in a contending team before moving to the new barn, even if Bedard is on the roster? For that mystery alone, we had to put them in the basement.
But as we've said: Today's cellar dweller is tomorrow's Stanley Cup champion. It's just a Connor Bedard away.