The National Hockey League's young talent pool is basically as deep as the Mariana Trench at this point. There are franchise players, superstars, championship building blocks and game-changers in those depths, and more arrive every year in the draft.
Consider that last year's list of the top 25 players under 25 years old graduated two players that were nominated for league MVP last season; Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche and Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers, the latter of whom won the award. Taking those open slots on this year's list? Two Calder Trophy-nominated defenseman who look like they might battle for league honors for the next 15 years.
We ranked each position and then compared the lists against each other. We've taken into account traditional stats and analytics, from sites like Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey. Current body of work is the biggest factor in the decision process, but we also project how the next few seasons will play out for them. We debated the list internally and sought input from some trusted league experts. Like any ranking, it's subjective and debate is welcomed.
Note that all players must be 24 years old or younger as of Jan. 13, 2021. Players with Calder Trophy eligibility are not eligible to be included on the list, as there isn't enough of a body of work -- so wait your turn, Alexis Lafreniere.
Before we get to the top 25, a couple of close calls:
Biggest cutoff conundrum: Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey Devils
Age: 19 | Last year: NR
By any measure, Hughes had a tremendously disappointing first season in the NHL after being selected first overall. He mustered 21 points in 61 games, the 17th-lowest scoring average (0.34 per game) among rookies last season. He had a negative-3 goals scored above average. But his talent is undeniable, as is the fact he was only 18 years old last season. Hughes projects to be something special, but with so many tangible results from others, he couldn't make the cut here as a "maybe one day" kind of player.
First one out: Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buffalo Sabres
Age: 20 | Last year: 19
Dahlin really found his offensive stride in his second NHL season, averaging 0.68 points per game in 59 appearances for the Sabres last season. The 2018 first overall pick, Dahlin's defensive game saw a slight regression last season. But he's reportedly added about 12 pounds of muscle during an offseason fitness regimen, and the expectation is that his ice time will crest back over 20 minutes per game this season after declining to 19:18.
The reason he's fallen off the top 25? That regression, but also the arrival and ascendance of a number of other young defenseman ahead of him. He'll be back.
And now the top 25:
25. Nico Hischier, C, New Jersey Devils
Age: 21 | Last year: Honorable mention
The Swiss center has put together three seasons of consistent offense and improving defense for the Devils. But there are three kinds of first overall picks: The ones that dominate the highlight reel, the ones that flame out and the ones that are just solid if not spectacular. Hischier, who went first overall in 2017, is squarely in that third category.
"It doesn't matter what situation he's in, during the game or on the ice, he understands how to play it to the very best of his abilities. And that's at a high level," said TSN director of scouting Craig Button.
24. Kyle Connor, LW, Winnipeg Jets
Age: 24 | Last year: Honorable mention
Since the 2017-18 season, Connor is 10th in the NHL in goals, with 103; that's more than Steven Stamkos and Brad Marchand, among other names that might surprise you. He earned his status as a top-line winger for the Jets, but his defensive deficiencies keep him lower on our countdown than his gaudy goal totals might otherwise demand. But after hitting 38 goals in 71 games last season, the Michigan product could challenge for a Rocket Richard Trophy.
23. Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Columbus Blue Jackets
Age: 22 | Last year: First one out
He saw only a slight decline in production (0.70 points per game) from 2018-19 (0.74) despite losing linemate Artemi Panarin to free agency. He also had a revelatory postseason with 10 points in 10 games for the Blue Jackets. It's a stacked group at center, but Dubois has earned his place on the list, especially after his work in the Toronto bubble.
22. Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston Bruins
Age: 22 | Last year: 22
McAvoy has quietly become the Bruins' best defenseman, playing smart positional defense with a physical edge when necessary. He's earned comparisons to Drew Doughty of the Los Angeles Kings, but by his second season Doughty was already popping for 59 points. That's the rub with McAvoy: We don't quite know what his offensive game looks like until it's unleashed.
Perhaps with Torey Krug moving on, he'll get a longer look on the power play. While only one half of McAvoy's game has really come into focus in his three NHL seasons, we're seen enough to know he's a special player.
21. Thomas Chabot, D, Ottawa Senators
Age: 23 | Last year: 17
Chabot took a step back last season and thus takes a step back in our countdown. He followed his 55-point breakout with 33 points in 71 games last season. Was it a change in his usage with a new coach? A course correction for his offensive output? The result of being on a bad hockey team?
Whatever the case, the swift-skating defenseman is still a franchise pillar for the rebuilding Senators. In nothing else, he continues to gobble up ice time, leading the NHL with 26 minutes of per game on average last season.
20. Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Carolina Hurricanes
Age: 20| Last year: NR
The best thing that can be said about Andrei Svechnikov is that he has the talent to make this ranking look absolutely shortsighted by the end of this season. He had 24 goals in 68 games in 2019-20, two of them coming on "lacrosse goals" that infuriated goalies but entranced fans.
The No. 2 overall pick in 2018 still has to round out his game, especially on the defensive end. "He's going to continue to grow for a while, figuring out the game, figuring out how to play at a high level consistently, shift after shift. But I think he's on his way for sure," coach Rod Brind'Amour told Canes Country.
19. William Nylander, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
Age: 24 | Last year: 25
After a contract squabble subverted his fourth season in the league, Nylander's fifth campaign was his best: 31 goals and a 0.87 points-per-game average in 68 appearances. He's an analytics darling thanks to his elite ability to drive possession and create scoring chances, especially after zone entries. He had 7.4 goals scored above average last season.
There's a reason why Nylander is constantly mentioned in trade rumors: Other teams covet him, but the Leafs treasure him.
18. Patrik Laine, LW, Winnipeg Jets
Age: 22 | Last year: 15
Laine continues to drop down our ranking after finishing No. 3 in 2017-18. That was after his 44 goals in 82 games campaign; since then, he's scored 58 goals in 150 games.
There was talk that Laine was unhappy with his deployment by the Jets, and talk that the Jets were actively seeking to trade him. Bottom line: Laine remains one of the best young goal scorers in the NHL, with 7.7 goals scored above average last season. Maybe in time he'll find a defensive game that complements that offense, but more likely he'll continue to crack in goals from the wing wherever and with whomever he plays.
17. Ivan Provorov, D, Philadelphia Flyers
Age: 23 | Last year: Honorable mention
Entering his fifth NHL season, Provorov has established himself as the do-everything No. 1 defenseman for the Flyers. His even-strength play improved last season, finishing on the positive side of possession, while he led all NHL defenseman in power-play goals with seven in 69 games; he also led the Flyers in shorthanded ice time.
It's worth wondering how he'll handle the retirement of defense partner Matt Niskanen, with whom he meshed exceptionally last season. Travis Sanheim, with whom he's played before, and Phil Myers would seem to be the likely replacements.
16. Matthew Tkachuk, RW, Calgary Flames
Age: 23 | Last year: 14
Like Brad Marchand, Tkachuk is a throwback to those NHL pests of days gone by who could agitate you with a critical goal just as easily as they could tick you off with their antics. Tkachuk has 235 points and 302 penalty minutes in his first four seasons in the NHL, and he is a puck possession monster. His value to the Flames is considerable: He led the team with 12.4 goals scored above average.
15. Mathew Barzal, C, New York Islanders
Age: 23 | Last year: 12
Barzal has led the Islanders in scoring every full season he's played in the NHL, with 207 points in 234 games. He's a dynamic offensive talent, with 8.1 goals scored above average, and a playmaking machine. His defensive game is underappreciated: He was fourth in the NHL with 80 takeaways last season. Then again, he taketh away because he giveth: Barzal led all NHL forwards with 4.53 giveaways per game last season.
14. Zach Werenski, D, Columbus Blue Jackets
Age: 23 | Last year: 16
Werenski has played over 1,625 minutes with Seth Jones over the past two seasons, and that pairing is one of the best in the NHL. Away from Jones, some of Werenski's metrics improve slightly (like goals-for percentage) and some slip (like shot-attempt percentage). So it's a little hard to get a sense of how great the Blue Jackets defenseman can be outside of that duo.
What we do know: Werenski has his best all-around NHL season in 2019-20, with a 0.65 points per game average in 63 games and 9.1 goals scored above average.
13. Sebastian Aho, C, Carolina Hurricanes
Age: 23 | Last year: 10
Aho leveled up in the past two seasons as he grew into a No. 1 center. He followed a 1.01 points-per-game season in 2018-19 by averaging 0.97 last season for the Hurricanes. Aho's an awesome special-teams player, with four shorthanded goals in each of the past two seasons. His 5-on-5 defensive play could get better, as could his faceoffs. But there's a reason the Montreal Canadiens went after him with a rare offer sheet: Aho is legit.
12. Mikko Rantanen, RW, Colorado Avalanche
Age: 24 | Last year: 8
The next two players on this list could easily flip-flop. The case for Rantanen is that the Finnish forward is a superior goal scorer, with 0.35 goals per game and a remarkable 16% shooting percentage for his career. Rantanen's been tremendous on the power play and is improving defensively. He's remarkably agile for his 6-foot-4 frame, too.
11. Mitch Marner, RW, Toronto Maple Leafs
Age: 23 | Last year: 9
Despite an offensive output that was on par with his previous season, Marner took a small step back in 2019-20, staggering under the pressure of a $16 million base salary on a new six-year contract. But one small step for Marner would be a giant leap for most players, as he still managed 67 points in 59 games and continued to be one of the league's best young two-way wingers.
10. Carter Hart, G, Philadelphia Flyers
Age: 22 | Last year: Honorable mention
In the 28 years after Ron Hextall's (first) reign in Philadelphia, the Flyers have searched for their next homegrown franchise goalie in much the same way supernatural investigators search for a Yeti. Well, after decades of blurry photos and plaster casts of large feet, look what we have here: Carter Hart, who after two seasons makes it appear the Flyers have found what they're looking for.
He's won 40 of his first 70 NHL games, with a .915 save percentage. Hart has stellar form and positioning. It's a bedrock on which he'll add a multitude of other skills in the coming seasons.
9. Quinn Hughes, D, Vancouver Canucks
Age: 21 | Last year: NR
You'll notice a few players who ranked highly last season have dropped a few spots in the 2020-21 compendium. There are a number of factors for this, but the ascendance of a trinity of young defensemen is a key one.
That trio starts with Hughes, the runner-up for the Calder Trophy last season. He does everything well, making an impact at even strength while nearly having as many assists (22) on the power play as he had at 5-on-5 (23). Earning comparisons to Hall of Famer Scott Niedermayer, he's a special blueliner, but there are a couple that may have a higher ceiling.
8. Miro Heiskanen, D, Dallas Stars
Age: 21 | Last year: 21
Sergei Zubov is a Hall of Fame defenseman who sees that special something in Heiskanen, who has 68 points in 150 games through two NHL seasons.
"I do think the thought process of the game is different for players like him. It slows down, you see things ahead of time. I can see that in him. His instincts are great, and so a lot of things just happen for him," Zubov said.
Heiskanen is a franchise defenseman, it's just that there might be another young blueliner that has a slightly higher upside.
7. Cale Makar, D, Colorado Avalanche
Age: 22 | Last year: NR
One Eastern Conference coach we spoke with said Heiskanen is currently the best defenseman under 25, but that he'd "put the little kid from Colorado damn close beside him." It's possible Heiskanen is better than Makar. It's possible Quinn Hughes had a better rookie season than Makar -- Hughes earned my vote for the Calder. But this ranking isn't just for today. It's for tomorrow.
When you look at what Makar does with the puck, and what he does in full stride entering the attacking zone, it's remarkable. When you think about how this league is trending, especially when it comes to mobile defensemen, it's trending towards Cale Makar's skills set. Like any young offensive defenseman, there's work to be done on his defensive play and his decision-making. But once those facets come into focus, we might be looking at the most dynamic package of skills since Erik Karlsson's peak.
6. Jack Eichel, C, Buffalo Sabres
Age: 24 | Last year: 5
Eichel is the most difficult player to assess in the top 10. He's an exceptional talent and a player that's steadily gotten better each season before his incredible 2019-20 campaign, when he scored 78 points in 68 games. But what really impressed me about Eichel last season were the improvements in his defensive game, something for which we might credit new coach Ralph Krueger.
However, he's not quite there yet defensively, which brings us back the difficulty in assessing him: Eichel has never played in an NHL playoff game after five seasons in the league, which is a fact that's both sad and explanatory. He's played on some terrible teams. He's not been tasked with the same kind of all-around responsibility as he might on a contender -- his objective is to score and score often. Last season was our first glimpse at the total package of Jack Eichel, and it's no coincidence that it's the first season in which he received MVP support, finishing eighth for the Hart.
5. Brayden Point, C, Tampa Bay Lightning
Age: 24 | Last year: 11
Not to make this entry "referendum on Jack Eichel, Part 2," but it was either him or Point in the top five. It's easy to say that Point -- who has 262 points in his first 295 NHL games -- has had more help, because it's true: He's spent nearly 1,900 even-strength minutes with Nikita Kucherov, arguably the best winger in hockey, over the past three seasons. Maybe with Taylor Hall on his wing, Eichel's all-around game would a significant leap forward, too.
But there's no "maybe" with Point. As we wrote last year, he can impact the game in a multitude of ways. Defensively, he's a stopper. Offensively, he had 33 points in 23 playoff games in their Stanley Cup run. Does Eichel have a higher ceiling? Probably. But we haven't seen all Point has to offer either, and he's already shown plenty.
4. David Pastrnak, RW, Boston Bruins
Age: 24 | Last year: 7
After sharing the Rocket Richard Trophy with some guy named Ovechkin, Pastrnak now has 155 goals in 293 games since 2016-17. His 0.53 goals-per-game average ranks third in the NHL in that span. Where he really excels is on the power play, where he's second to Ovechkin in goals since 2016-17, with 60. The fact that he plays with Patrice Bergeron and Marchand helps pave over some of his defensive deficiencies; but even if his game isn't completely well-rounded, Pasta is the best winger under age 25.
3. Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver Canucks
Age: 22 | Last year: 13
This being an election year, we're reminded that endorsements matter. And Wayne Gretzky himself can't stop endorsing Pettersson as something special, whom he says reminds him of a young ... Wayne Gretzky. Specifically the way he sees the ice, but with better skating ability and a harder shot. Oh, and he's also compared him to another star, or to be more specific, a ProStar.
In calling Pettersson a franchise player, Gretzky said, "He's like Michael Jordan when he came to the Chicago Bulls."
The Canucks center has 132 points in 139 games, drives play and is stronger defensively than you'd expect from a 22-year-old center. Hey, we're not the one making Gretzky comparisons; Gretzky is.
2. Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
Age: 23 | Last year: 3
Nathan MacKinnon's graduation from the list brings Matthews back to the No. 2 spot. He's the best goal scorer of his generation: Since 2017-18, he's second to Alex Ovechkin in goals per game average (0.59), with a quick-release shot that leaves goalies guessing how the next puck will arrive. Matthews is a dominating offensive at even strength and on the power play, and drives possession for the Leafs. He's improving defensively, too.
Matthews is one of the best players in the NHL, and it feels like we're still scratching the surface of his total talents.
1. Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers
Age: 23 | Last year: 1
The perpetual question about McDavid is whether you're willing to outweigh the defensive flaws in his game -- after five seasons, he's still an incomplete player -- with his supernatural skating, stickhandling and scoring ability. If you've made it this far in the ranking, then you know our answer. McDavid is currently fifth in NHL history with a 1.34 points-per-game average for players with at least 300 games. He has 469 points in 351 games, including 162 goals.
He's a human highlight reel, much to the chagrin of the defensive players who become his unwitting costars. "Generational talent" gets thrown around a lot in sports, but it defines McDavid, the best player under 25 in the NHL.
Graduated from 2019-20 list
Aleksander Barkov, C, Florida Panthers
Leon Draisaitl, C, Edmonton Oilers
Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche
Honorable Mention
Anthony Cirelli, C, Tampa Bay Lightning
Alex DeBrincat, LW, Chicago Blackhawks
Nikolaj Ehlers, LW, Winnipeg Jets
Aaron Ekblad, D, Florida Panthers
Kevin Fiala, LW, Minnesota Wild
Travis Konecny, C, Philadelphia Flyers
Dylan Larkin, C, Detroit Red Wings
Mikhail Sergachev, D, Tampa Bay Lightning